Taking the optimists down a notch.

[shagmago]

This threads a hoot! It brings out all the......"everythings OK"....... "we`ll be just fine"......"shucks,we`ll get em next year"fans.

SILLY WABBITS!!! The article is simply implying right now "its not OK"...."we won`t be fine" and "shciit,we won`t get em next year"

[MadBuffaloDisease]

We're DOOOMED.

 

No wait, we're not.

 

Then again, maybe we are?

 

Or are we?

 

[Saint Doug]

And that's the trooth.

 

damn straight it is...

 

BTW, love the avatar!

[BillsVet]

This threads a hoot! It brings out all the......"everythings OK"....... "we`ll be just fine"......"shucks,we`ll get em next year"fans.

SILLY WABBITS!!! The article is simply implying right now "its not OK"...."we won`t be fine" and "shciit,we won`t get em next year"

 

I reminds me of those old NFL Films productions after the season that highlighted every team in the league. The year the Jets went 1-15 after watching their 1/2 hour production, you'd have thought they went 10-6 and made the playoffs.

 

You can convince yourself that all the Bills question marks will be solved through the draft/free agency/divine intervention/whatever. But, with lackluster depth at RB, LB, and CB, it's not comforting knowing we've got so many holes and so few dependable options to fill them with. When you absolutely depend on the draft for players, something is seriously wrong.

[BuffBills#1]

Everyone talks about how great Fletcher was, but does anyone remember how bad are run defense was? The way I see it is it can't get any worse. Our season will depend on 4 things.

 

1. J.P. Losman keeps improves into a top 10 QB, and from what we saw at the end of last year I think it'll happen.

2. Our rookie class from last year improves (which they probably will) Simpson and Whitner are only going to get that much better, while McCargo and Youbuto are both question marks. Remember this though, Youbuto was projected a 1st round pick and probably would have been one of the top corners this year if he stayed another year.

3. We get at least 2 quality starters out of the draft, and hopefully 3.

*bonus* They say it takes 2 years to get close to your old form (J. Peterson is as good as ever) If Spikes can get close to his old form, it makes us that much better. Remember, he suffered a hamstring injury the second series of the season and those usually take an offseason of rest to get back to full strength.

 

The biggest thing is Losman, if he keeps developing like he did at the end of last year we should win more games then we loose.

[Dibs]

The biggest thing is Losman, if he keeps developing like he did at the end of last year we should win more games then we loose.

[The Dean]

"Does anyone think Buffalo is better today than it was at the end of the 2006 season?"

 

Yes

 

'nuff said. Let's move on

[Koufax]

Wow...I know I'm always the eternal optimist, but the pessimists seem to be out of touch with football reality.

 

1) We are very likely to be worse at #1 CB next year whether it is Youboty or a draft pick. Nate played very well, and will be missed talent wise. However with an extra year for the two rookie safeties, McGee likely to rebound a little or drop to nickel and the possibility of Youboty-Revis both excelling, our secondary could end up being improved as a whole despite the loss of Nate. Have to see if we use the first round pick or not, but I don't think the secondary sky is falling.

 

2) I personally think that a 2007 LB line of Ellison-Crowell-Spikes is actually better than Crowell-Fletcher-Spikes in 2007. Spikes will have a much better 2007 than 2006, I expect the same from Crowell who missed time with injuries, and I think Ellison has the talent to step in. But we still could sign June, draft Willis, etc. I consider our LBs a small downgrade at worst right now, and very likely to start the season better than last year.

 

3) D-Line is better. Hargrove all season in the #4, McCargo doesn't become a bust over a broken foot, and there is still solid reason why he was a first round pick. Kyle will be better in year 2, and Larry picked up speed in the second half and will do better playing with a more experienced unit. The ends are the same guys in year two of the D with better tackle play, so should be expected to play at least as well as last year.

 

4) O-Line is way better. This killed us last year, was better in the second half, but we still only ran one direction. Our upgrades are huge, and this is the most significant improvent on our team. Creating holes on both sides, having power at LG to drive forward in short yardage, and protecting JP and giving Lee an extra second to get open? I can't wait.

 

5) Receivers are better. Price was underused, as was Roscoe and they will benefit from another year working with the QB and the time the line allows. Lee is going to continue on his way up, but as he draws more attention he will make the others better.

 

6) Tight ends are same or better. Everett could finally show something. Royal and JP got more comfortable. Still not a strength, but should be alright. Now that Royal doesn't have to stay in and help Pennington all the time he will be a more valuable weapon as the D keys on Evans.

 

7) JP will be better. We all saw how well he worked last season and progressed. This time last year some people thought Holcomb could be the starter? JP is a solid hardworking QB and his progression continues as well as having better protection, being in year 2 of the system, and getting to know his receivers better.

 

8) RB will be better. Not sure how yet, so I can take my lumps for people who say it isn't better right now. But I think if A-Train got Willis's carries last year he would have done better than 990. Better line is crucial given how run-left-only we were and how the opposition made that adjustment, but I think we are a good team to plug in a decent back and have him succeed. We didn't give up Willis because we had to (like Nate). We gave up Willis because we thought he was replaceable, and I think the season will show that.

 

So that's before we sign June and have a great draft, but let's leave that stuff out for now. I think this team RIGHT NOW is better than last year without question. We have question marks at RB, CB, LB compared to last year, but we actually have decent players at those positions and will further upgrade all three before the season starts.

[MDH]

I guess Bob doesn't put too much stock into...

 

A team's young core of players improving on last season's promising performances.

No coaching staff turnover means only rookies will have to learn a new system.

McCargo (broken foot) and Youboty (Mom's death) living up to their pre-draft billing.

 

Why do you assume that only the Bills youg players are going to improve? Wouldn't those points really be a wash in predicting improvement? Who knows, maybe the Bills young players will improve more than other teams'...but it's pretty tough to think the Bills are better than their opponents because our guys will improve and their guys won't.

[OCinBuffalo]

7) JP will be better. We all saw how well he worked last season and progressed. This time last year some people thought Holcomb could be the starter? JP is a solid hardworking QB and his progression continues as well as having better protection, being in year 2 of the system, and getting to know his receivers better.

Hmmm. I don't remember it that way at all. Instead of:

"This time last year some people thought Holcomb could be the starter?"

It's more like:

"This time last year 30-40% of people(TBDers) told us Holcomb would surely be the starter. In addition, %50 of the "experts" said that sooner or later Holcomb would be starting. We heard that JP simply did not have the ability to be a starter in the NFL because he couldn't see the field well enough and wasn't an accurate enough passer - like Holcomb . During the 1st half of the season we heard that JP should be benched, bad idea to draft him, more Donahoe crap, etc."

 

The big day for these folks was the second Patriots game; it was their High-Water Mark; but it all came crashing down. They were proven massively wrong. So wrong, in fact, that hardly anyone has bothered to call them on it - other than beating on DeLuca. The best part is that JP improving his play isn't even the major factor in why they were wrong. The major factor was, and still is in some cases, these people's piss poor analysis of the situation. I am so sure it was simply an amazing coincidence that the line shuffle just happened to be the same time JP starting meeting with more success.

 

But how funny is it that no JP hater last year at this time was talking about the line being the reason JP struggled - and instead "analyzed" his abilities in a vacuum? This same kind of "analysis" is going on right now about Clements and Fletcher; but it's in reverse! Just like JP ALONE was not the main reason the offense had trouble in 2005, Nate and London were not the only reason the Bills had some great plays in 2006. IIRC, at least as many "dagger in the heart" defensive plays came from our younger/rookie defensive players as did our vets.

 

So, I don't see being largely positive on the Bills this year as being an optimist or a pessimist. I see it as being REALISTIC. I see it as being the rational response to the demonstrable improvement the TEAM has made in ALL areas over the 2005 season, especially at the Positions we drafted for and QB. Can anyone honestly say that in 2006, the people we planned on getting, drafted, and then played/started DIDN'T do more than expected last year(McCargo being a wash)? So if nothing else we have evidence that Marv & Co. can put a plan together(whether fans agree with the plan doesn't matter), execute the plan, and see results from that plan that surpass our expectations. That is exactly what we saw last year.

 

IF we are being REALISTIC, why does anyone expect that a similar plan/execution/results will not happen this year? Wouldn't that be counter to the evidence(not peoples' opinions) we have from last year? Attempting to deny those results = attempting to deny reality = not being very Realistic

[Koufax]

Why do you assume that only the Bills youg players are going to improve? Wouldn't those points really be a wash in predicting improvement? Who knows, maybe the Bills young players will improve more than other teams'...but it's pretty tough to think the Bills are better than their opponents because our guys will improve and their guys won't.

 

We had a first round pick and a third round pick often graded with first round talent not contribute in 2006 but the things that kept them from contributing are behind them, and they should be very valuable acquisitions. So despite a year of experience for each, they get to have anything over zero as an improvement in contribution, and they play positions where we need the help. I don't think another team has a similar situation with a 1st AND a 3rd round pick from last year.

 

We have two rookie safeties who started together and did well all year, but should really benefit from the year of experience in the NFL, in this D, and playing together. This is more standard to year two players, but not too many teams had the side by side situation we did without a veteran crutch, and I think that should mean these guys should grow a lot into year two.

 

And beyond the explanations for just last year's day 1 picks, we also have a younger team than many across the board. So I don't think we are just saying that the Bills young guys will improve and other teams will not, but that the particulars and circumstances would lead to higher expectations for improvement of our young team than many other more veteran teams.

[Bill from NYC]

I wish things were that simple.

 

My point is that it's still very early, and it's a mistake to be too sure that things will go well or that they'll go badly.

 

They almost are that simple. If the OL improves, the Bills will have the option of controlling the clock or the deep strike to Evans. This is unheard of in Buffalo. Field position will improve, and pressure will be taken off the defense.

And yes, it is too early to be sure about how this team will do. The point is, without an upgrade in blocking we were surely going to continue to lose.

[zonabb]

It depends on who is doing the talking, wouldn't ya say?

 

I don't care about Mathews, but Badolbilz is a long time season ticket holder who studies both the Bills and college football in depth, to the point that he watches film. He deserved better than he got when he posted his concerns about the defense.

 

Sometimes the truth hurts. I am optimistic because we seem to finally have a good Guard and LT. There are posters on this board who were about 2 years old the last time the Bills had a team that could block, and I kid you not. Imo, the entire character of the football team will change when WE start kicking ass in the cold instead of getting our asses kicked. It has been a disgrace, and I think that things are about to change.

That said, if Badol has concerns about our defense, you can bet your a$$ that he is on the money.

 

Yeah, because one no-name backs another no name, that's reason enough for me to be certain of the credibility of both of you. Bodol is no more credible than anyone else nor more credible than some honk at a newspaper.

 

And no more credible than me and this little rant......

 

The only loss on this team that should be a concern is Clements. As for taking a step back, I just don't see it. Any back behind a seemingly improved OL can do what McGahee did... 990, 1+ catch a game, and poor blocking. I don't see the loss in Fletcher as a fatal blow. He's undersized and wasn't a run stuffer, he was easily handled by lineman. He made his money making tackles 5 yards down field. That might be on the DL somewhat but if a RB gets free of the DL on a team like Chicago, you can bet Urlacher is plugging the whole.

 

So where exactly is this team gonna slip aside from possibly CB? I just don't see this major collapse from a team on the rise to a team on the decline.

 

I've said it on this board many times..... give me brains and character over superior skills and a pea brain. And Steve Tasker basically made me even more steadfast in that believe last week on the radio when he said that Levy used to say that guys wth brains can learn and get better, guys with skills and no brains leave the same as when they arrived.

 

Wait and see. I trust the guys who attended class in ivy covered buildings.

[nick in* england]

Bob Matthews' 'ouch' in reference the number of draft picks for the Bills/Pats/Jets in the top 92 is not justified. You should always judge the merit of picks by value not quantity.

 

By way of explaination - each pick has a relative value in the draft (usually to measure for trade value).

 

If you take the Bills 4 picks in the top 92 (12,43,74,92) their combined total value is 2022.

 

The Patriots overall value is 1836 despite having two first round picks and four in the top 91.

 

The Jets total value is 1731 despite having four picks in the top 89.

 

So Marv's right - the Bills have more flexibility, because the value of their combined picks is higher and they have the opportunity to get better rated players overall than the Pats and Jets.

[tennesseeboy]

sorry to be an optimist, but you could look at it this way (regarding the loss of clements, fletcher, and mcgahee)...

 

1. Losing clements hurts. sure we have youboty to step in, but he is an unknown. He does, however, have more upside than a 1st rounder, due to his being in the system for a year.

 

2. How is Spikes - Fletcher - Crowell better than Spikes - Crowell - Ellison? Fletcher is on the decline, and Spikes will in all likelihood be better in '07 compared to '06, due to more recovery time from injury. Crowell should be able to replace the ability of a declining fletcher, at least on the field.

 

3. McGahee? 990 yards isnt easily replaceable, especially with a vastly improved o-line? thats 62 yards per game. a back that can get a bit over 3 yards per carry, is easily found.

 

4. D-line - we have the same DL at the end of '06, but have a healthy McCargo. A healthy versus an injured McCargo, is an improvement.

 

5. Jp/Evans,etc will improve this season, as will our rookies.

 

sure, replacing Clements is tough, but overall, i highly doubt the march 07 bills are significantly worse than the december 06 bills.

 

All excellent points. In addition there will certainly be other offseason moves at running back at least and we should have another nice draft. I would have been one (come to think of it, I was one) who recommended keeping Fletcher and making McGahee play on the theory that keeping the same group in line would get us INTO the playoffs. I think these moves and these pickups, unsexy as they are (offensive linemen), are looking more to solidifying us and getting us far into the playoffs.

[Dibs]

Bob Matthews' 'ouch' in reference the number of draft picks for the Bills/Pats/Jets in the top 92 is not justified. You should always judge the merit of picks by value not quantity.

 

By way of explaination - each pick has a relative value in the draft (usually to measure for trade value).

 

If you take the Bills 4 picks in the top 92 (12,43,74,92) their combined total value is 2022.

 

The Patriots overall value is 1836 despite having two first round picks and four in the top 91.

 

The Jets total value is 1731 despite having four picks in the top 89.

 

So Marv's right - the Bills have more flexibility, because the value of their combined picks is higher and they have the opportunity to get better rated players overall than the Pats and Jets.

Yep.

[Bob in STL]

I don't always like what Bob Mathews has to say, but this is about as dead on the money as you can get.

 

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/p.../703120321/1011

 

Particularly, these two parts:

 

Ouch.

Ouch.

 

What will matter is how good our selections turn out to be. Like last year, we need to find a few rookies who can contribute now. What the other teams do is out of our hands.

 

I think that Marv and Co are doing a good job of re-tooling this team. It will take 3 off-seasons and 3 drafts to do so.

[Sketch Soland]

It would help if you knew the guy. I am now on the wrong side of 50, and have never met a person who even approaches what this guy knows about football. I am including formations, talent evaluation, the Bills, the draft, college football in general, blocking, football history, etc. My friends save questions to ask him at our annual RWS trip (13 consecutive years).

He is actually modest. He takes questions and is not trying to show off. He probably would prefer to just hang out, but is willing to indulge those who seek information.

He deserved better.

 

I'm sure he's a great guy. That's not the issue. It has absolutely nothing to do with that. It is just my opinion that it was a poor choice of title and a poorly worded OP, which set the debate off on the wrong foot to begin with. He seemed to take things personally when people did not respond the way he thought they should, which is rather bizarre, imo, but like you said, I don't know him and I'm certainly not passing any judgments on him outside of that one thread (as I don't take anything posted on this board with more than a grain of salt, including anything I post )

[Bill from NYC]

Yeah, because one no-name backs another no name, that's reason enough for me to be certain of the credibility of both of you. Bodol is no more credible than anyone else nor more credible than some honk at a newspaper.

 

Please show me anything in my posts where I claim to be "credible." I am just a fan like you, perhaps less angry. Still, there are some posters here who take it to another level. Badol is one and while this doesn't guarantee he will always be correct, he has a better shot than someone like me.

 

Btw, I like Ivy Leaguers too. My daughter is one. Can we make her a scout?

[Orton's Arm]

They almost are that simple. If the OL improves, the Bills will have the option of controlling the clock or the deep strike to Evans. This is unheard of in Buffalo. Field position will improve, and pressure will be taken off the defense.

And yes, it is too early to be sure about how this team will do. The point is, without an upgrade in blocking we were surely going to continue to lose.

I agree the Bills absolutely had to improve the offensive line. And the Dockerey for Gandy improvement should be huge. I'm also looking forward to some of last year's rookies playing better this year. But beyond those two things, I'm not sure how much better the line will be in 2007. Nobody that I saw over on the Oakland boards had anything nice to say about Langston Walker's play. I really hope we use an early pick or two on offensive linemen, because right now we need help at C, RG, and RT.

 

But even if the offensive line significantly improves from where it was in the last part of the 2006 season, that doesn't necessarily mean the Bills will have a better record. It's possible the offensive line improvement could be offset by a decline in defensive play. I'm not saying this will happen, only that it could.