jri111 Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 OK i just want to start this thread with a pretext: I am RARELY for trading up. We have mulitple holes on our team and having four first day picks is a good way to start filling them. But here's what are REASONABLE senarios for trading up to get Petterson. First, Peterson would have to slip passed Clevland at number 4 (Which means they probablly would take Quinn)... In this senario, he would most likely fall to Houston at 8, who would be foolish to pass on him (UNLESS the falcons at 7 thinks he's too good to pass up or GB trades up to get him - no other team would be in reach to trade that high up to get him). But assuming this, we would probably have to trade up to 7 (w/ the falcons) or 6 (with the skins) to jump ahead of Houston to get Peterson. According to an NFL trade value chart (http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp), the number 12 pick is worth 1200 points. The number 7 pick is worth 1500 points and the number 6 is worth 1600. So we would have to give Atlanta about 300 more points to get him (obviously give or take), or the skins 400 more points. The three most likely way to package those points are these: 1. Trade our 1st (12th overall) and 2nd (47th overall): That's 1200 +470 = 1670 - that's overpaying Atlanta, but to give up that spot to a team like Atlanta probably would want a deal like that (that COULD get use to the skin's 6th overall pick which is valued at 1600) 2. Trade our 1st (12th overall) and two thrids (74th overall and 92nd overall): That's 1200 + 220 + 132 = 1550 - This would not be enough for the Skins, but would be the most likely senario for the Falcons... it overpays a little but that's to be expected to entice another team to trade down. 3. Trade our 1st (12th overall) and 3rd (74th overall) and 4th (right now 108th overall): That's 1200 + 220 + 78 = 1498 (notice though that our 4th would probably be worth less because of compensatory picks at the end of round 3) - Because of this, it would be a good deal for Buffalo. Highly unlikely though. Might have to add in another late round pick to compensate. Personally, I don't know how I feel about this. BUT if Peterson does get past Clevland would you trade the two thrids to get him? I would definitley trade our 3rd and 4th, but I don't see that happening. Two threes though? I think my answer is yes. The second third rounder is an "extra" pick from Willis anyways, so it would be essentailly trading only our original third to move up 5 spots. At the same time that's two thrid round, first day talents you're giving up for him. 3 players compared to one. Also, i'm not a proponent of taking a RB in round 1, our defense has too many holes. Okoye, Willis, Puz, Hall all could be guys that step in right away to help the defense. That said, Losman-Evans-Peterson has a nice ring to it! There's the trade off.... So what do you think? Would you trade away our two thrids to get Petterson If you were presented the chance on draft day (of course this makes some assumptins including that Petterson gets passed Clevland, the Packers don't make a HUGE move to try to get him, and you can find a willing trading partner)...
downsoufbfan Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 Only if the bills took care of the other team needs through Free Agency, That is the only i could see that.
Brandon Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 Nope. I'd rather take Lynch at 12 and then trade up from 43 into the late 1st to select a CB or LB, similar to what they did last year.
Christopher Capolupo Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 Let's take care of CB or MAYBE LB at 12.. Second and third round will have a decent number of good RBs available.
VRWC Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 I knew the Bills should lost two more games this past year. Dam
obie_wan Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 3 day 1 picks for the privelige of overpaying for for a guy with injury concerns I don't think so
WVUFootball29 Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 3 day 1 picks for the privelige of overpaying for for a guy with injury concerns I don't think so Almost sounds like a Mike Ditka draft
obie_wan Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 3 day 1 picks for the privelige of overpaying for for a guy with injury concerns I don't think so let me put this in prespective. The Jets made the playoffs last year with Leon Washignton (a 4th rounder) their best back. No way do the Bills give up 3 first day picks for any RB.
jri111 Posted March 12, 2007 Author Posted March 12, 2007 let me put this in prespective. The Jets made the playoffs last year with Leon Washignton (a 4th rounder) their best back. No way do the Bills give up 3 first day picks for any RB. two things: 1. I didn't mean to imply that i would take it. I was thinking as i was writing and must have thought it a good idea when i wrote "i think the answer is yes..." Must have been a spur of the moment thing that i didn't realize i was doing. From my other posts on this board and even within the text of this post, I've made it pretty clear that i'm all for going strong on defense on day one and that taking a RB first round would be ridiculous, especially Lynch. That said, If Peterson, who IMO, is a step above Lynch and two steps above everyone else, fell to us at 12 I don't think you could pass him up. AND this thread was just to throw the idea out, would be try to move up a few spots if he started to fall... I think it's an intersting question and one that you have to think about.... But indeed, it was my mistake to say that I would. My intention was to leave my opinion out of it and just pose the question to everyone, so my bad... 2. You wouldn't be giving up 3 first day picks for a RB, you'd be giving up two. Where it's true that you'd trade your 1st and two thirds to get someone elses first, in reality, simple math says you're giving up two picks (3-1=2). Essentailly you're swapping firsts and giving up two thrids. So it's not Dicta-like becuase you're giving up only two picks w/ realtively low value. Put it another way our second round pick is worth 470 points and our two thrids together are worth 352 (220 +132). So really you'd be giving up less then a second in value. So, even though i wouldn't do it... it's not impossible or crazy as some would suggest...
jeffalmighty Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 It all comes down to how good Peterson really is. If the Bills scouts think Peterson is LT2 I would have no problem with them trading up. The highlights I have seen of him are amazing, incredible speed and power. Just don't know how he compares to other top backs in recent years.
obie_wan Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 two things: 1. I didn't mean to imply that i would take it. I was thinking as i was writing and must have thought it a good idea when i wrote "i think the answer is yes..." Must have been a spur of the moment thing that i didn't realize i was doing. From my other posts on this board and even within the text of this post, I've made it pretty clear that i'm all for going strong on defense on day one and that taking a RB first round would be ridiculous, especially Lynch. That said, If Peterson, who IMO, is a step above Lynch and two steps above everyone else, fell to us at 12 I don't think you could pass him up. AND this thread was just to throw the idea out, would be try to move up a few spots if he started to fall... I think it's an intersting question and one that you have to think about.... But indeed, it was my mistake to say that I would. My intention was to leave my opinion out of it and just pose the question to everyone, so my bad... 2. You wouldn't be giving up 3 first day picks for a RB, you'd be giving up two. Where it's true that you'd trade your 1st and two thirds to get someone elses first, in reality, simple math says you're giving up two picks (3-1=2). Essentailly you're swapping firsts and giving up two thrids. So it's not Dicta-like becuase you're giving up only two picks w/ realtively low value. Put it another way our second round pick is worth 470 points and our two thrids together are worth 352 (220 +132). So really you'd be giving up less then a second in value. So, even though i wouldn't do it... it's not impossible or crazy as some would suggest... Stop with the semantics. In your scenario, you are using 3 picks on 1 player. Instead of picking 3 bodies to help your team, you have 1 - and an injury riddled one at that. Those "low value" 3rd rounders should become 2 starters. With all the holes the Bills have, it is stupid to use 3 picks on a RB.
Sketch Soland Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 No. Good RB's grow on trees practically and can be had in later rounds. now that it looks like that we will finally have a decent o-line *crosses fingers*, we also do not need to give up too much for a RB.
Squeally Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 We all know the how much mock drafts mean (next to nothing, even though I read them!), but Pat Kirwan's latest has Peterson slipping to the Bills because of recent signings. This doesn't take into account draft dat moves, but we may not need to give up anything for him. It sure is interesting to think about! If he's there, I don't think you can pass on him...even with other more pressing needs.
Sketch Soland Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 We all know the how much mock drafts mean (next to nothing, even though I read them!), but Pat Kirwan's latest has Peterson slipping to the Bills because of recent signings. This doesn't take into account draft dat moves, but we may not need to give up anything for him. It sure is interesting to think about! If he's there, I don't think you can pass on him...even with other more pressing needs. he won't be there, but if he is, i think we do have to take him, i agree. i wouldn't trade up for him, though.
Squeally Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 he won't be there, but if he is, i think we do have to take him, i agree. i wouldn't trade up for him, though. I agree there's no need to trade up for him. I don't think he's that much better than the next 2 or 3 RBs.
mattypro89 Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 Let's take care of CB or MAYBE LB at 12.. Second and third round will have a decent number of good RBs available. or trade down, get LB in Shaw or Posluzny in late 1st, get an extra 2nd, then take care of RB, CB, then 3rd, DT, CB, and so on.
Squeally Posted March 12, 2007 Posted March 12, 2007 I think with where the Bills pick in this draft and whose likely to be available, along with who will be available in the later rounds, trading down is not a bad idea. There seems to be a lot of good talent, but not any first round too good to pass on guys...unless Peterson falls!
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