Why we WONT pick a CB first

[DrDawkinstein]

because we picked a first round CB last year. no not whitner... youboty.

 

all im saying is that besides the fact that he was projected to be a late1st-early2nd pick, IF he had stayed in school and played CB on that Ohio State team he would DEFINITELY be getting more hype than Hall or Revis.

 

so that being said, i guess we have our first round CB already. now, i also understand that we only have 3 CBs on the roster right now and if we dont ink a FA we will have to draft CB on the first AND second day. but im hoping that K thomas comes back around and we grab one in the 3rd or 4th...

[Dibs]

because we picked a first round CB last year. no not whitner... youboty.

 

all im saying is that besides the fact that he was projected to be a late1st-early2nd pick, IF he had stayed in school and played CB on that Ohio State team he would DEFINITELY be getting more hype than Hall or Revis.

You can't say that.

Just because you are confident in a prediction does not mean that your prediction is a definitive fact. I've got high hopes for Youboty too.....as I'm sure does Marv & DJ.....but to not only assume he would have continued to shine & improve had he stayed in college....but will perform like a 1st rounder(which is 50% bust anyway).....is overstepping the bounds of reasonable assessment.

I'd be extremely surprised if Marv. & Co. hang our CB future on an untested Youboty without having a plan B.

[DrDawkinstein]

You can't say that.

Just because you are confident in a prediction does not mean that your prediction is a definitive fact. I've got high hopes for Youboty too.....as I'm sure does Marv & DJ.....but to not only assume he would have continued to shine & improve had he stayed in college....but will perform like a 1st rounder(which is 50% bust anyway).....is overstepping the bounds of reasonable assessment.

I'd be extremely surprised if Marv. & Co. hang our CB future on an untested Youboty without having a plan B.

 

dude, its deep into the offseason. OF COURSE im not talking about ANYTHNG like its a definitive fact. dont argue symantics and logic of discussions at this point.

 

all i was doing is pointing out an observation for anyone who thinks we should be drafting Hall/1st Round CB, and maybe giving them something to think about.

 

i guess ill take my football talk somewhere else...

 

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

because we picked a first round CB last year. no not whitner... youboty.

 

all im saying is that besides the fact that he was projected to be a late1st-early2nd pick, IF he had stayed in school and played CB on that Ohio State team he would DEFINITELY be getting more hype than Hall or Revis.

 

so that being said, i guess we have our first round CB already. now, i also understand that we only have 3 CBs on the roster right now and if we dont ink a FA we will have to draft CB on the first AND second day. but im hoping that K thomas comes back around and we grab one in the 3rd or 4th...

I can see where your getting at. So you want us to draft a LB or DT first?

[ROCCEO]

You can't say that.

Just because you are confident in a prediction does not mean that your prediction is a definitive fact. I've got high hopes for Youboty too.....as I'm sure does Marv & DJ.....but to not only assume he would have continued to shine & improve had he stayed in college....but will perform like a 1st rounder(which is 50% bust anyway).....is overstepping the bounds of reasonable assessment.

I'd be extremely surprised if Marv. & Co. hang our CB future on an untested Youboty without having a plan B.

Theres no reason that plan b can't be "sign or draft a guy next year". Itd piss me off but we're likely not going to teh superbowl this year anyway, so unless Youboty is the new Chris Watson, I could let it slide.

[JuanGuzman]

We won't pick a cb cause the cover two doesn't place a high value on CB's who can cover man to man eg lock down type players. Its those type of players who are rated high in the draft. All they are looking for is a CB with good instincts who can come up and make tackles.

[DrDawkinstein]

I can see where your getting at. So you want us to draft a LB or DT first?

 

yes. defense, specifically LB, first. however, now that we are into Mid-March and only have Shaud and Fred Jackson on the squad as RB i guess i wouldnt be real upset if we went RB. but id still rather hold off on that til the 2nd. I think if Willis is there, that will be the perfect pick.

[Poeticlaw]

because we picked a first round CB last year. no not whitner... youboty.

 

all im saying is that besides the fact that he was projected to be a late1st-early2nd pick, IF he had stayed in school and played CB on that Ohio State team he would DEFINITELY be getting more hype than Hall or Revis.

 

so that being said, i guess we have our first round CB already. now, i also understand that we only have 3 CBs on the roster right now and if we dont ink a FA we will have to draft CB on the first AND second day. but im hoping that K thomas comes back around and we grab one in the 3rd or 4th...

 

 

But the fact is he was drafted in the 3rd rd and only played 3 games all year he might not be the answer at corner. Ther first round pick will either be a LB or CB possibily both if trades are made like last year. They will not draft a RB in the first rd this year.

[Pyrite Gal]

We won't pick a cb cause the cover two doesn't place a high value on CB's who can cover man to man eg lock down type players. Its those type of players who are rated high in the draft. All they are looking for is a CB with good extincts who can come up and make tackles.

 

Exactly! It is not only an estimate of Youbouty's talent that makes him a viable replacement for NC (in fact in terms of quality he is now where near the quality of NC) but the likely fact that the import of the CB is diminished in the Cover 2 as the CB is required generally to break coverage on the WR after 10-15 yards and turn him over to the safeties and MLB who have deep coverage in the Cover 2 in the way we implement it.

 

This diminished CB role and opportunity for INTs in the Cover 2 was a public and specific reason which Dre Bly stated was a reason he was jumping ship in DET which still runs a cover 2 as designed by Dick Jauron when he was DC at DET. Our reliance on the Tampa 2 esque version is part of the reason why it was MLB Fletcher-Baker rather than CBs Clements or McGee who led the team in INTs last year.

 

I suspect it was a big part of the reason why Marv was quite willing to forgo the option of franchising Clements this year because he knew there was no way that a CB playing the reduced role of a CB in the Cover 2 was going to certainly be worth the likely market rate needed to sign NC or even that this year's franchise amount of the avg. salary of the top 5 CBs was going to be worth paying Clements when a second tier CB likely can do the reduced job required of a CB in a Cover 2.

 

This is not to say there is no risk in departing with a very goof player like NC (though if someone wants to make the case that he is the BEST D player in football as the coincidence of renewal of the cap has resulted in him signing the biggest contract ever for a D player- in fact it is pretty hard to argue he is even the best among CBs much less that he is the best D player in football- Nate would not have been foolish enough to sign any contract with the Bills this off-season much short of the one he signed and even last off-season "the playmaker" showed enough confidence that it is doubtful he would have accepted a deal much short of what he got and Bills fans would have strung Marv up to hang if he were willing to offer NC any deal he would sign after his awful 2005 season). The risk is that any D must change coverage from time to time or the opponent will kill you and any CB is gonna be required to turn tail and play with his back to the QB sometime. This apparently was a big weakness in Youbouty's game when he came to the pros and whether he has solved this problem with a year of watching and participating in Bills practice will say a lot whether he is merely good enough to be our nickel (likely) or good enough to play CB (possible though still not likely until he shows more).

 

The three things I like about Youbouty are:

 

1. The word on him was coming out of college was that he had 1st round physical talent and skills but he needed another year of college to work off some rough edges like a tendency to look too much into the backfield to do run support when particularly once he faced pro receivers he would need to be judicious in his run support and concentrate on covering NFL vet receivers as any small advantage for them may be fatal. However, I think Youbouty is actually better off getting his CB finishing school playing 16 games as a sub for the Bills (actually 15 as we trusted him to start one game due to injury issues) rather than 12 games starting for OSU. Perhaps if confidence and toughness were the issues for him starting would have been better for him. but calming down and cerebral work were the missing elements and he actually got a better dose of this watching the Bills system and workings for a year rather than playing in college. The year off as a player came from unforseen circumstances which cost him all of last pre-season, but life is what happens while one is making plans and I think he is likely a better player because of the course of events.

 

2. Most important, there is confirmation he is a good player as merely through practice the Bills gained enough trust in him to start against NYJ last year. In this game and two game appearances as a substitute he did OK though did nothing great to attract attention. However, the start was against the rag armed but cagey Chad Pennington and likely if he had coverage issues we would have seen them that game. The fact the braintrust trusted him enough to play and even start him and that the D held together fairly well with him in there are good signs that should make a Bills fan who watches the games hopeful (though not certain) that he is at least ready for the nickel job and maybe more.

 

3/ The type of game he played coming out of college really lend itself to the cover 2. He is a relatively big boy only an inch shorter than NC (and thus 3 or 4 inches taller than fellow OSU player Winfield. He apparently is a competive guy not afraid to make a hard hit. He has a rep for doing good hand work and plays better facing the QB and seems built to do the press coverage required in the way we run the Cover 2.

 

NC is a very good player and far better than Youbouty, but even the best plays by Nate last year where times such as his break up of a 3rd down pass which forced Houston to punt late in that game which is just the type of play a second tier CB like the young Youbouty should be able to make doing press coverage rather than the other plays like NCs 1 TD last year which actually came when the Bills were running a better D style for him of loose coverage where he can sit back and read the QBs eyes and jump the route.

 

I do not think that Youbouty is anywhere near being as good a player as NC but given his make-up, the year of study he got last year and us diminishing the role of the CB in the Cover 2, I would not be surprised at all to see him be able to replace NC as one of our starting CBs.

 

McGee actually raised more questions by playing so badly he needed to be benched, but this did seem to adjust his attitude (it was a mental coverage selection issue IMHO as he was failing to read the mistakes of our young safeties and keep covering the WR when it should have been obvious to him the safety was gonna be late or the play required him to stay with the WR). However, the benching seemed to adjust his attitude and he was much better in the second half of the season to such an extent that QBs finally began challenging NC (who was assigned the other teams best receiver even though Roy Williams tattooed both McGee and NC in the Detroit game) rather than simply throwing at McGee all the time. I still would like us to get a second tier CB but I think we will be fine at CB next year.

[jarthur31]

because we picked a first round CB last year. no not whitner... youboty.

 

all im saying is that besides the fact that he was projected to be a late1st-early2nd pick, IF he had stayed in school and played CB on that Ohio State team he would DEFINITELY be getting more hype than Hall or Revis.

 

so that being said, i guess we have our first round CB already. now, i also understand that we only have 3 CBs on the roster right now and if we dont ink a FA we will have to draft CB on the first AND second day. but im hoping that K thomas comes back around and we grab one in the 3rd or 4th...

 

He hasn't proven he can play in this league yet. Winfield and Clements did in their first year right away. Even if those 2 missed all of TC, they still would've played alot even if they were not starters by year's end (as they both were).

 

Kiwaukee and Nate are both gone, so the probabilit that we take a CB in the 1st round is very high. You got to remember that McGee isn't a #1 either so that makes it even more pertinent.

[DeLuca1967]

because we picked a first round CB last year. no not whitner... youboty.

 

all im saying is that besides the fact that he was projected to be a late1st-early2nd pick, IF he had stayed in school and played CB on that Ohio State team he would DEFINITELY be getting more hype than Hall or Revis.

 

so that being said, i guess we have our first round CB already. now, i also understand that we only have 3 CBs on the roster right now and if we dont ink a FA we will have to draft CB on the first AND second day. but im hoping that K thomas comes back around and we grab one in the 3rd or 4th...

 

There is no assurances that Youboty will even make the opening day roster. He didn't show anything last season that would guarantee him a spot this season.

 

The Bills have a lot holes to fill. RB, MLB, DT, CB & a #2 WR to play across Evans are all huge needs for the Bills. The Bills might be better off just going with the best player available. If it's a corner? Pick the corner.

[Bill from NYC]

I still would like us to get a second tier CB but I think we will be fine at CB next year.

 

PG, help me out here if you will.....

 

You don't want a 1st Round Corner (I agree). You are against drafting 1st Round OL (you prefer free agency), and for years you have warned against drafting QBs in Round 1. You don't want a first round MLB in a Cover-2.

 

What are your ideas on what the Bills SHOULD do in the early rounds?

[JinWPB]

Unlike some past years the draft is full of talent at all but a few positions. Marv and company should have little trouble finding bodies to fill our needs on defense. I feel thats why they have made the big free agent push to solidify the offense. Expect the draft to go; lb,cb,dt,rb,unless a bigtime franchise player falls to us at 12. You have to Billieve they have a plan and its not called rebuilding, its called making IMPROVEMENTS to the final product. Don't keep thinking the loss of NC,WM,LFB, is going to doom us.

We all heard that before, ITS PART OF THE GAME. We aren't the only teams to have roster changes.

The Pats look to be arming themselves to attack with the pass this year.With our Tampa 2 D, we should be OK if we can pressure Brady up front, maybe we can as we did in game 1 last year.They have lost a lot on the OL the past few years. If we get split with NE I see a playoff spot in 07.

[DrDawkinstein]

He hasn't proven he can play in this league yet.

 

Neither have any of the CBs in the Draft. Except our rookie CB has been practicing/studying with an NFL team for a full year.

 

There is no assurances that Youboty will even make the opening day roster. He didn't show anything last season that would guarantee him a spot this season.

 

oh, i agree. and im not one of the people that are so sure of his talents.

 

im just pointing out that had he stayed in school, he wouldve definitely been looked at as a 1st round talent this year. So would Ko Simpson.

 

so for everyone that knocks Marv for "picking Whitner too early", we also got 1st round Secondary talent in the 3rd and 4th rounds last year... so.... THERE!

[Pyrite Gal]

He hasn't proven he can play in this league yet. Winfield and Clements did in their first year right away. Even if those 2 missed all of TC, they still would've played alot even if they were not starters by year's end (as they both were).

 

Kiwaukee and Nate are both gone, so the probabilit that we take a CB in the 1st round is very high. You got to remember that McGee isn't a #1 either so that makes it even more pertinent.

 

 

Its a team game and its the team's record that counts much more than an individual players performance. I'll have to go back and refresh my minds with a look at a good indicator which is statistical performance as far as AW's history of being part of achievement. However, if memory serves me correctly, what NC demonstrated in his first year was that he showed good indications that he could play but really only proved he could be part of a 3-13 team.

 

The one credible rap I think people can put on NC's career is that he definitely has shown he is a very good player who even made the Pro Bowl as a reserve once, he is far from being a great player, first year, second year or whenever because he has never demonstrated the true mark of a champion because he makes the players around him play better or steps up in crunch time to produce himself.

 

I think the key item in assessing NC as a player and and as an investment was that the one time he did have the team's fate in his own hot little hands when the Bills were 9-6 and stood a good chance at making the playoffs with a win, he laid a punt return on the carpet, Our kicker missed a chip shot field goal and Bledsoe failed to lead. Same as when he was a rookie was the same thing that year, he is a player he showed good potential but potential really means you have not done anything yet.

 

Did Youbouty show a lot as a rookie? No.

 

However, fortunately for the Bills we had two starters at CB so the team did not require him to do so. However, when McGee and others got injured and we did need him to play, he indicated that he does have the potential to one day be a credible NFL player and CB with his one start and adequate performance against NYJ.

 

I think Youbouty has potential and with us bringing in competition like a second tier CB who might also hold down the diminished value position in our Cover 2 if Youbouty fails to step up (as Nate and ultimately AW failed to do for the Bills) then we can go to plan B.

[Pyrite Gal]

There is no assurances that Youboty will even make the opening day roster. He didn't show anything last season that would guarantee him a spot this season.

 

The Bills have a lot holes to fill. RB, MLB, DT, CB & a #2 WR to play across Evans are all huge needs for the Bills. The Bills might be better off just going with the best player available. If it's a corner? Pick the corner.

 

Definitely Youbouty showed nothing that guarantees him a opening day start, but it seems to me to ignore the reality of both his performance in his one start (a win with a great D performance against the rag-armed but cagey Pennington) and his holding his own in two other appearances and the big reality in today's NFL, his contract slotted to a 3rd round choice that Youbouty is easily guaranteed a roster spot.

 

If third round choice at DT Tim Anderson is till hanging around in his third year, then Youbouty is simply flat-out guaranteed a roster spot in his second year.

 

As far as the Bills holes this fact actually tends the Bills toward something other than a CB. At least we at least have an option (even if you or others do not believe in it) at #2 CB, however, at MLB and RB we simply have Shaud Williams and Digregorio as the best options to start on our depth chart and Crowell and nobody as reasonable options to start.

 

I agree that we have an interest in getting some more competition at CB, but the even more critical needs at other holes may well drive the likely to start and contribute 1st and 2nd round choices to other needs where we do not even have an option,

[Pyrite Gal]

PG, help me out here if you will.....

 

You don't want a 1st Round Corner (I agree). You are against drafting 1st Round OL (you prefer free agency), and for years you have warned against drafting QBs in Round 1. You don't want a first round MLB in a Cover-2.

 

What are your ideas on what the Bills SHOULD do in the early rounds?

 

As a general rule (which one should violate easily in specific cases where you can justify it such as our crying need for an SS starter last year and the belief which proved correct that Whitner was not only capable of starting immediately but actually a better prospect for performance than Huff) I think one should trade down for depth.

 

In this case, I agree with the general sense that one must run and stop the run as a starting point. I do prefer FA for the OL in our case because our need has been to win immediately and as happened last year we did not have a draft pick high enough to get D'Brick (and I and a couple of other folks did not predict Mangold was capable of starting at C immediately).

 

This year I like Okoye if he drops to #12 (which unfortunately it does not look now he will do). Branch is getting a lot of negative marks recently and I want to take a look to see if this is merely disinformation from folks hoping either he or Okoye will drop but I think drafting a DT is probably our best bet right now.

 

I also would take a hard look at whether Willis can in fact play SLB which I have heard some talk of (this makes far more sense than drafting him to start at MLB).

 

The good news is that the draft ain't until April and all predictions are interesting but way pre-mature as as seen last year probably incorrect anyway if the Bills do this right.

[Bill from NYC]

As a general rule (which one should violate easily in specific cases where you can justify it such as our crying need for an SS starter last year and the belief which proved correct that Whitner was not only capable of starting immediately but actually a better prospect for performance than Huff) I think one should trade down for depth.

 

In this case, I agree with the general sense that one must run and stop the run as a starting point. I do prefer FA for the OL in our case because our need has been to win immediately and as happened last year we did not have a draft pick high enough to get D'Brick (and I and a couple of other folks did not predict Mangold was capable of starting at C immediately).

 

This year I like Okoye if he drops to #12 (which unfortunately it does not look now he will do). Branch is getting a lot of negative marks recently and I want to take a look to see if this is merely disinformation from folks hoping either he or Okoye will drop but I think drafting a DT is probably our best bet right now.

 

I also would take a hard look at whether Willis can in fact play SLB which I have heard some talk of (this makes far more sense than drafting him to start at MLB).

 

The good news is that the draft ain't until April and all predictions are interesting but way pre-mature as as seen last year probably incorrect anyway if the Bills do this right.

 

Fair enough, but as I recall, DTs take longer to develop than almost any position on the field.

[Pyrite Gal]

I feel thats why they have made the big free agent push to solidify the offense. Expect the draft to go; lb,cb,dt,rb,unless a bigtime franchise player falls to us at 12.

 

The idea of picking Willis (a sign to me that we have written off making the playoffs in 07 if he starts at MLB) can actually play some SLB, This to me is a much more doable thing as the requirements in the Cover 2 of the OLBs depends much less on making vet reads than the MLB position.

 

If drafting Willis to play SLB is a doable thing (and this nugget of thought was just the type of info I have been looking for in my various protestations of the idea of drafting Willis to start at MLB) then he becomes much more attractive to me as a draftee.

 

Slide Crowell over to MLB and the two years of training he got in signal calling as the back-up to Fletch and the quality diverse play he has showed as the best reserve LB on our depth chart so that when Posey was sent away he switched to Sam and when TKO went down he was our plan B at Will (and played well enough there that when TKO came back he stayed at WLB and TKO went to SLB) this looks to me like a far better framework than demanding a rookie be a step late at the MLB position as he learns it.

[Dibs]

.....im just pointing out that had he stayed in school, he wouldve definitely been looked at as a 1st round talent this year. So would Ko Simpson.

AAARRRGGHHHH

How about probably, possibly, potentially, could well have, IMO would have......anything but definitely.