Git'er Done Posted February 28, 2007 Posted February 28, 2007 I have seen some posts that have a draft philosophy kinda like "Well, we need a defensive lineman most badly, so we should use the 1st pick there, then we need a linebacker 2nd most, so we should use the 2nd pick there, and we need a rb after that so in the 3rd", so on & so forth. Then there are the people who say " we should just pick a nice "solid" running back in the 2nd or 3rd. Wrong approach. Sure some 2nd rounders etc, have been very good, but you gotta go for it. Again there are 31 other organizations all trying to get better now. If Willis goes, we need a RB now. I went to the Hall of Fame Site 25 Running backs 1 Marcus Allen 1 Jim Brown (FB) 1957-1965 1 Earl Campbell (RB) 1978-1985 1 Larry Csonka (FB) 1968-1979 1 Eric Dickerson (RB) 1983-1993 1 Tony Dorsett (RB) 1977-1988 1 Frank Gifford (HB-FL) 1952-1960, 1962-1964 1 Franco Harris (RB) 1972-1984 1 Paul Hornung (HB) 1957-1962, 1964- 1 Lenny Moore (HB) 1956-1967 1 John Riggins (RB) 1971-1979, 1981-1985 1 Barry Sanders (RB) 1989-1998 1 O.J. Simpson (RB) 1969-1979 1 Charley Trippi (HB) 1947-1955 1 Hugh McElhenny (HB) 1952-1964 1 Walter Payton 8 Leroy Kelly 2 John Henry Johnson 2 Thurman Thomas 2 Jim Taylor Unlisted: ? Gayle Sayers ? Doak Walker ? Ollie Matson ? Marion Motley ? Joe Perry I realize that to expect a HOF running back is alot, but I want a GREAT back and you have WAY better odds in the 1st RD. I don't even like the lower end of the 1st round. In the next couple of years Losman will be in his prime, Evans will be in his prime, this draft or next year is the time to get a 1st rate guy (and next year we hopefully won't be picking so high). NOW is the time. I also looked at some recent drafts (2000-2006), saw alot of busts and average guys after the first 15 or so picks,. I think you gotta play the odds and go 1st rounder. Apparently, Lynch and Peterson are the choices (I don't want Turner).
Nanker Posted February 28, 2007 Posted February 28, 2007 Who says you need a HOF RB to win the SuperBowl? I'm more interested in The Bills winning a SuperBowl than having another HOF RB. We have two of those already and no Lombardi. Lots of teams have won the SB without a HOF RB.
Git'er Done Posted February 28, 2007 Author Posted February 28, 2007 Who says you need a HOF RB to win the SuperBowl?I'm more interested in The Bills winning a SuperBowl than having another HOF RB. We have two of those already and no Lombardi. Lots of teams have won the SB without a HOF RB. I didn't say you need a HOF running back, I think that these numbers give a good indication that the best backs come from the first round (by a large margin) I too am more interested in the BIlls winning a Super Bowl than having a HOF RB There are alot of Super Bowl winners on that list (and more to come that are just becoming eligible) in fact probably more teams that have won the Super Bowl have had a HOF RB than than not (of course winning Super Bowls is a good way to get to the HOF). It's not about the Hall of Fame, it's about when to draft a running back.
ROCCEO Posted February 28, 2007 Posted February 28, 2007 IMO Michael Turner would be just fine, I watched no less than 6 chargers games this year in full and I think that the guy may not be the best back in teh league, but he certainly has game. HOwever, theres no way SD parts with him until next year.
MadBuffaloDisease Posted February 28, 2007 Posted February 28, 2007 IMO Michael Turner would be just fine, I watched no less than 6 chargers games this year in full and I think that the guy may not be the best back in teh league, but he certainly has game. HOwever, theres no way SD parts with him until next year. If they wait until next year, the get nothing for him. They'll trade him THIS year for a 1st, if not an additional pick. No thanks!!
silvermike Posted February 28, 2007 Posted February 28, 2007 Too small a sample size, and necessarily due to the rules of the Hall, one that's already dated. On the other hand, if you look at recent final fours (excluding ex-first roudners acquired in other ways): 2006: Bears (Benson), Colts (Addai), Patriots (Maroney), Saints (Bush) 2005: Steelers (none), Broncos (none), Seahawks (Alexander), Panthers (Foster) 2004: Patriots (none), Eagles (none), Steelers (none), Falcons (Duckett) 2003: Patriots (none), Panthers (Foster), Eagles (none), Colts (James). So it does seem important, I guess
Git'er Done Posted February 28, 2007 Author Posted February 28, 2007 Who says you need a HOF RB to win the SuperBowl?I'm more interested in The Bills winning a SuperBowl than having another HOF RB. We have two of those already and no Lombardi. Lots of teams have won the SB without a HOF RB. Actually you got me thinking. Here is a list of Super Bowl champions and their RB with the round they were chosen ( sorry if it looks crappy, but even this was alot of work). Lots of 1's..... 07 Colts Addai #1 06 Steelers Parker undrafted Bettis #1 05 Pats Dillion #1 04 Pats Smith #1 03 Bucs Alstott #2 02 Pats Smith #1 01 Ravens Lewis #1 00 Rams Faulk #1 99 Broncos Davis #6 98 Broncos Davis #6 97 Packers Bennett #4 96 Cowboys Smith #1 95 49ers Watters #2 94 Cowboys Smith #1 93 Cowboys Smith #1 92 Redskins Byner #10 91 Giants Hampton #1 90 49ers Craig #2 89 49ers Craig #2 88 Redskins Rogers #1 87 Giants Morris #2 86 Bears Payton #1 85 49ers Tyler #3 84 Raiders Allen #1 83 Redskins Riggins #1 82 49ers Cooper #1 Patton #10 81 Raiders King #3 80 Steelers Harris #1 79 Steelers Harris #1 78 Cowboys Dorsett #1 77 Raiders VanEeghen ?undrafted 76 Steelers Harris #1 75 Steelers Harris #1 74 Dolphins Csonka #1 73 Dolphins Csonka #1 72 Cowboys Thomas #1 71 Colts Bulaich #1 70 Chiefs Garrett #20 ??? 69 Jets Snell #1 68 Packers Anderson #1 67 Packers Taylor #2 Anderson #1
Git'er Done Posted February 28, 2007 Author Posted February 28, 2007 Actually you got me thinking. Here is a list of Super Bowl champions and their RB with the round they were chosen ( sorry if it looks crappy, but even this was alot of work). Lots of 1's.....07 Colts Addai #1 06 Steelers Parker undrafted Bettis #1 05 Pats Dillion #1 04 Pats Smith #1 03 Bucs Alstott #2 02 Pats Smith #1 01 Ravens Lewis #1 00 Rams Faulk #1 99 Broncos Davis #6 98 Broncos Davis #6 97 Packers Bennett #4 96 Cowboys Smith #1 95 49ers Watters #2 94 Cowboys Smith #1 93 Cowboys Smith #1 92 Redskins Byner #10 91 Giants Hampton #1 90 49ers Craig #2 89 49ers Craig #2 88 Redskins Rogers #1 87 Giants Morris #2 86 Bears Payton #1 85 49ers Tyler #3 84 Raiders Allen #1 83 Redskins Riggins #1 82 49ers Cooper #1 Patton #10 81 Raiders King #3 80 Steelers Harris #1 79 Steelers Harris #1 78 Cowboys Dorsett #1 77 Raiders VanEeghen ?undrafted 76 Steelers Harris #1 75 Steelers Harris #1 74 Dolphins Csonka #1 73 Dolphins Csonka #1 72 Cowboys Thomas #1 71 Colts Bulaich #1 70 Chiefs Garrett #20 ??? 69 Jets Snell #1 68 Packers Anderson #1 67 Packers Taylor #2 Anderson #1 The fact that most of the repeaters are #1's is interesting as well. There were also alot of #1's on the losing side, but in Buffalo we know the losers don't count right?
Nanker Posted February 28, 2007 Posted February 28, 2007 We're not drafting a RB in the first round this year.
Git'er Done Posted February 28, 2007 Author Posted February 28, 2007 We're not drafting a RB in the first round this year. I don't think they will either, but I think they should. Perhaps next year, but a letdown this season could pull the team right off the tracks. A bad running game could cause a big letdown.
BuffOrange Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 Who says you need a HOF RB to win the SuperBowl?I'm more interested in The Bills winning a SuperBowl than having another HOF RB. We have two of those already and no Lombardi. Lots of teams have won the SB without a HOF RB. Agreed. Every position has a higher success rate in the early rounds. Off the top of my head the SB winning RB's this decade have been Jammal Lewis, Antowain Smith, Forgot-his-first-name Pittman, Antowain Smith, Corey Dillion, Willie Parker, Joeseph Addai.... I realize there are some mediocre QB's in that same time-frame too, but there's a reason why the salaries go QB > LT > DL > RB
Dr. Trooth Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 If Willis goes, we need a RB now. If Willis stayss, we need a RB now.
K-Gun10 Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 We're not drafting a RB in the first round this year. No one expected a safety last year first round and if they did it wasent Donte whitner.
Dual RB way to go Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 Actually you got me thinking. Here is a list of Super Bowl champions and their RB with the round they were chosen ( sorry if it looks crappy, but even this was alot of work). Lots of 1's.....07 Colts Addai #1 06 Steelers Parker undrafted Bettis #1 05 Pats Dillion #1 04 Pats Smith #1 03 Bucs Alstott #2 02 Pats Smith #1 01 Ravens Lewis #1 00 Rams Faulk #1 99 Broncos Davis #6 98 Broncos Davis #6 97 Packers Bennett #4 96 Cowboys Smith #1 95 49ers Watters #2 94 Cowboys Smith #1 93 Cowboys Smith #1 92 Redskins Byner #10 91 Giants Hampton #1 90 49ers Craig #2 89 49ers Craig #2 88 Redskins Rogers #1 87 Giants Morris #2 86 Bears Payton #1 85 49ers Tyler #3 84 Raiders Allen #1 83 Redskins Riggins #1 82 49ers Cooper #1 Patton #10 81 Raiders King #3 80 Steelers Harris #1 79 Steelers Harris #1 78 Cowboys Dorsett #1 77 Raiders VanEeghen ?undrafted 76 Steelers Harris #1 75 Steelers Harris #1 74 Dolphins Csonka #1 73 Dolphins Csonka #1 72 Cowboys Thomas #1 71 Colts Bulaich #1 70 Chiefs Garrett #20 ??? 69 Jets Snell #1 68 Packers Anderson #1 67 Packers Taylor #2 Anderson #1 Txs for all the hard work, but I do have one question? What was the position of the draft picks (eg. Round one #12)? That would be interesting to find out. maybe most picks were in the top 10 aswell?
PatPatPatSack Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 If Willis stayss, we need a RB now. If Willis stays we have a #1 running back. And a #1 qb. And a #1 safety, (thank the football gods). We are READY! What we need is a #1 Defensive Lineman, I'm thinking.
PatPatPatSack Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 Actually you got me thinking. Here is a list of Super Bowl champions and their RB with the round they were chosen ( sorry if it looks crappy, but even this was alot of work). Lots of 1's.....07 Colts Addai #1 06 Steelers Parker undrafted Bettis #1 05 Pats Dillion #1 04 Pats Smith #1 ....... BTW - great work on the research. Nice #7 post. WTG!
Git'er Done Posted March 1, 2007 Author Posted March 1, 2007 Agreed. Every position has a higher success rate in the early rounds. Off the top of my head the SB winning RB's this decade have been Jammal Lewis, Antowain Smith, Forgot-his-first-name Pittman, Antowain Smith, Corey Dillion, Willie Parker, Joeseph Addai....I realize there are some mediocre QB's in that same time-frame too, but there's a reason why the salaries go QB > LT > DL > RB There are 2 positions that are basically all or nothing, QB and RB, either you got one on he's on the bench, useless. You can draft any other position and if the guys just alright he can still be a starter (move the LT to guard or instead of a #1 receiver the guys a #2), but QB and RB have to be top shelf (please don't mention Brad Johnson, he's is a very rare exception). We don't know much about Marshawn Lynch (work ethic, attitude, etc.), and I don't know if he is the answer, but aside from Peterson (who appears to be out of reach) he seems to fit the Bill (can catch well, can run inside pretty good too). My point isn't that they should draft Lynch, but that I don't think they can waste a 2nd round pick, and they better get lucky. They are in a quandry because they need a back NOW. If they regress, and don't keep building off of last year, I could easily see things fall apart. Like no running threat kills the passing game, Losman loses confidence and or players lose confidence in Losman.....Bad things, very bad things.
Git'er Done Posted March 1, 2007 Author Posted March 1, 2007 Txs for all the hard work, but I do have one question? What was the position of the draft picks (eg. Round one #12)?That would be interesting to find out. maybe most picks were in the top 10 aswell? Thanx, took some time but I was really interested. I think that unless you have a masterful, one-for-the-ages quarterback (I think very highly of JP, he may even be HOF material, but I don't think he is Elway, Montana, or Manning), you need a super-clutch, take over the game guy, and those guys don't usually fall out of the 1st round.
BuffOrange Posted March 1, 2007 Posted March 1, 2007 There are 2 positions that are basically all or nothing, QB and RB, either you got one on he's on the bench, useless. You can draft any other position and if the guys just alright he can still be a starter (move the LT to guard or instead of a #1 receiver the guys a #2), but QB and RB have to be top shelf (please don't mention Brad Johnson, he's is a very rare exception). We don't know much about Marshawn Lynch (work ethic, attitude, etc.), and I don't know if he is the answer, but aside from Peterson (who appears to be out of reach) he seems to fit the Bill (can catch well, can run inside pretty good too). My point isn't that they should draft Lynch, but that I don't think they can waste a 2nd round pick, and they better get lucky. They are in a quandry because they need a back NOW. If they regress, and don't keep building off of last year, I could easily see things fall apart. Like no running threat kills the passing game, Losman loses confidence and or players lose confidence in Losman.....Bad things, very bad things. I agree QB's to a certain extent are "all or nothing". RB def. not IMO. I mean LT is "all", the Jets have "nothing", but the vast majority of teams are pretty much like the Bills @RB where you have a guy you can win with, but can't take over a game. Lets just forget about Manning & Brady who are incredibly rare. Take Carson Palmer who most consider the 3rd best QB and compare him to the ~16th or average - lets just say Steve McNair for argument sake. The difference between these guys is pretty big - probably worth around 2 wins per year. When you compare the 3rd vs. 16th best RB in the league is there that much of a difference? I'd say no way in hell. I mean, if Rudi Johnson & Kevin Jones switched teams without telling anybody I doubt anyone would notice any difference at all. Not sure if this makes any sense in print but that's the best I can think to articulate it.
Git'er Done Posted March 1, 2007 Author Posted March 1, 2007 I agree QB's to a certain extent are "all or nothing". RB def. not IMO. I mean LT is "all", the Jets have "nothing", but the vast majority of teams are pretty much like the Bills @RB where you have a guy you can win with, but can't take over a game. Lets just forget about Manning & Brady who are incredibly rare. Take Carson Palmer who most consider the 3rd best QB and compare him to the ~16th or average - lets just say Steve McNair for argument sake. The difference between these guys is pretty big - probably worth around 2 wins per year. When you compare the 3rd vs. 16th best RB in the league is there that much of a difference? I'd say no way in hell. I mean, if Rudi Johnson & Kevin Jones switched teams without telling anybody I doubt anyone would notice any difference at all. Not sure if this makes any sense in print but that's the best I can think to articulate it. Funny thing is NONE of the guys you mentioned have won a Super Bowl. Yes the vast majority of teams do have a guy that they just get by with, and they don't win the Super Bowl. Every now and then a team wins the SB with just a guy and a GREAT QB. But if you look at the Super Bowl Winners List provided above, they have excellent backs (whether first rounders or not, I mean I be thrilled if the Bills got someone as good as Terrell Davis in the 7th round, it's just not LIKELY, they really need to play the odds on this I think).
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