donahoeisgod Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 Reading through the lines at Marv's responses from Friday's Press Conference, I sat back, took the weekend, and thought about how the Bills can retain Clements long term, and sign two OL's while letting Kelsay and Fletcher go. Assuming Hargrove can replace Kelsay and Crowell can replace Fletcher with Ellison (he's already the same size as Cato June) taking over for Crowell at the "Will" LB spot, here's how they can spend "to the Cap" and accomplish the above while not "mortgaging the future" as per Marv. I assume that they will spend $30 million after accounting for their 2007 picks and RFA's (retaining Greer, Hargrove, and Anderson (for depth)). I noted that Marv indicated they would be more selective in FA this year so besides role players/backups (i.e. A-Train, K.Thomas, A. Davis) I believe they wish to resign to relatively cheap deals, I think the following 3 free agents will be pursued. First, let's assume they re-sign their biggest FA Nate Clements-will be looking for a big pay day and probably deserves it. He has generally been a top 5-10 cornerback and has indicated he is willing to come back to Buffalo for the right deal. Here's my offer if I am the Bills. 2007- Base 12.0 million 2008- Base 7.5 million, 3.0 roster bonus 2009- Base 8.0 million, 1.5 roster bonus 2010- Base 8.5 million, 1.0 roster bonus 2011- Base 9.0 million 2012- Base 10.0 million Final Total- 6 years/$60.5 million with $22.5 million in first two years and $32 million in first 3. Remember, Nate's cap number for this year, if he were tagged again, would be approximately $9.0 so this is not too far off the market while maintaining flexibility for the Bills in the event of injury/decline in play toward the end of the contract. Now, the Bills still have approx. $18 million left for other free agents. Next on my list are a couple offensive lineman. I am assumiing that Villarial and Reyes are let go--saving some additional $$$ for our "Cash to the Cap" spree... 2) Eric Steinbach- Marv indicated that they still had to discuss Mike Gandy some more so that leads me to believe a new LG is likely. Here's how I think they can get the best one out there this year. 2007 Base- $9.5 million 2008 Base- $4.0 million, roster bonus $3.0 million 2009 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2010 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2011 Base- $6.0 million 2012 Base- $7.0 million A deal for 6 years/ $42.5million with $16.5 million for two years and $23million for 3 years. Plus our "Cash to the Cap" is reduced by $9.5 million to approximately $8.5 million. 3) Ryan Lilja/ Jake Scott (RFAs-Indy)- With the franchising of Dwight Freeney and numerous other free agents, I think the Bills might make a play for one of the above. I beleive Lilja has no compensation since he was undrafted, plus he played RG for the Colts, so let's have him be the first choice. 2007 Base- $6.50 million 2008 Base- $2.25 million, roster bonus $1.5 million 2009 Base- $2.75million, roster bonus $1.0 million 2010 Base- $3.25 million So 4years/ $17.5 million with more up front to dissuade/prevent a match from the Colts. The Cash to the Cap figure is reduced by $6.5 million to $2.0 million. This money would be used to resign A-train and K. Thomas, etc. I realize it might exceed the exact amount but maybe Ralph can sell another Monet, or take the additional $3-4 million from the increased ticket price to fill in the blanks with veteran depth. It might not work but hey, it fitsd the model the Bills will allegedly follow.. they couldn then draft for additional depth at RB, LB and DL. It should be fun starting on March 2.
obie_wan Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 Reading through the lines at Marv's responses from Friday's Press Conference, I sat back, took the weekend, and thought about how the Bills can retain Clements long term, and sign two OL's while letting Kelsay and Fletcher go. Assuming Hargrove can replace Kelsay and Crowell can replace Fletcher with Ellison (he's already the same size as Cato June) taking over for Crowell at the "Will" LB spot, here's how they can spend "to the Cap" and accomplish the above while not "mortgaging the future" as per Marv. I assume that they will spend $30 million after accounting for their 2007 picks and RFA's (retaining Greer, Hargrove, and Anderson (for depth)). I noted that Marv indicated they would be more selective in FA this year so besides role players/backups (i.e. A-Train, K.Thomas, A. Davis) I believe they wish to resign to relatively cheap deals, I think the following 3 free agents will be pursued. First, let's assume they re-sign their biggest FA Nate Clements-will be looking for a big pay day and probably deserves it. He has generally been a top 5-10 cornerback and has indicated he is willing to come back to Buffalo for the right deal. Here's my offer if I am the Bills. 2007- Base 12.0 million 2008- Base 7.5 million, 3.0 roster bonus 2009- Base 8.0 million, 1.5 roster bonus 2010- Base 8.5 million, 1.0 roster bonus 2011- Base 9.0 million 2012- Base 10.0 million Final Total- 6 years/$60.5 million with $22.5 million in first two years and $32 million in first 3. Remember, Nate's cap number for this year, if he were tagged again, would be approximately $9.0 so this is not too far off the market while maintaining flexibility for the Bills in the event of injury/decline in play toward the end of the contract. Now, the Bills still have approx. $18 million left for other free agents. Next on my list are a couple offensive lineman. I am assumiing that Villarial and Reyes are let go--saving some additional $$$ for our "Cash to the Cap" spree... 2) Eric Steinbach- Marv indicated that they still had to discuss Mike Gandy some more so that leads me to believe a new LG is likely. Here's how I think they can get the best one out there this year. 2007 Base- $9.5 million 2008 Base- $4.0 million, roster bonus $3.0 million 2009 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2010 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2011 Base- $6.0 million 2012 Base- $7.0 million A deal for 6 years/ $42.5million with $16.5 million for two years and $23million for 3 years. Plus our "Cash to the Cap" is reduced by $9.5 million to approximately $8.5 million. 3) Ryan Lilja/ Jake Scott (RFAs-Indy)- With the franchising of Dwight Freeney and numerous other free agents, I think the Bills might make a play for one of the above. I beleive Lilja has no compensation since he was undrafted, plus he played RG for the Colts, so let's have him be the first choice. 2007 Base- $6.50 million 2008 Base- $2.25 million, roster bonus $1.5 million 2009 Base- $2.75million, roster bonus $1.0 million 2010 Base- $3.25 million So 4years/ $17.5 million with more up front to dissuade/prevent a match from the Colts. The Cash to the Cap figure is reduced by $6.5 million to $2.0 million. This money would be used to resign A-train and K. Thomas, etc. I realize it might exceed the exact amount but maybe Ralph can sell another Monet, or take the additional $3-4 million from the increased ticket price to fill in the blanks with veteran depth. It might not work but hey, it fitsd the model the Bills will allegedly follow.. they couldn then draft for additional depth at RB, LB and DL. It should be fun starting on March 2. Any deal will have to approximate market with timing of cash payments the diff. Thus, if comparable siging bonuses are 15-18 mil for Nate, he wil need to have that amount guaranteed - but it could be paid out in 2 or possibly 3 years. Roster bonuses are not guaranteed and are treated the same as salary. Any guaranteed amounts, even if paid in later years, need to be amortized like a signing bonus.
Pyrite Gal Posted February 21, 2007 Posted February 21, 2007 NC is only worth that amount of a hit on our cap IF we were going to use him in a manner that allowed him to truly be a playmaker. However, in our Cover 2 the way we run it, the CB usually releases the WR to a safety after he goes 10-15 yards. This really cuts down on the CBs ability to make INTs and to generally be a playmaker as we saw last year when it was Fletch who led the team in INTs with 4 to NC's 3 and McGee dropped from leading the team in INTs in 05 to 0 playing CB with some difficulty in the first half of the season. NC actually seems to do better in a D like the zone blitz or even the old Walt Corey bend but don't break mode because this allowed him to play loose and read the QBs eyes and the routes to either jump them for an INT (a feat he pulled off once this year as it is hard to keep a good player down) or range all over the field looking for opportunities. He is relatively big for a CB at 6'1", and plays press coverage well. but I think this is one of the reasons they were pleased to get Youbouty who also is a 6 footer with a rep for being good at press coverage. The Bills seem to pretty fully recognize that NC is far and away the best CB on the Bills, but they seem to hope that McGee (he seemed to learn how to do the reads and play the Cover 2 style much more effectively in the second half of the season) and Youbouty or a second tier FA they should bring in to at least compete for the #2 CB will be adequate to pull off some of the great plays NC pulled off in short zone such as when he broke up a critical short pass play to force Houston to punt at the end of that game, This bet may be one that the Bills lose, but I think they decided to agree to not franchise Nate twice because they were virtually certain they were going to let him go after this season rather than pay him a top 5 CB salary and certainly not give him over 1/3 of the money we have to spend on FAs and to sign our own under the cash to cap accounting we have decided to do.
DrDawkinstein Posted February 21, 2007 Posted February 21, 2007 Isnt Hargrove a free agent? where's his money? am i making that up? i could be wrong but i thought he was a RFA?
socalfan Posted February 21, 2007 Posted February 21, 2007 ....... Nate Clements-...... 2007- Base 12.0 million ........ 2) Eric Steinbach- ...... 2007 Base- $9.5 million ........... 3) Ryan Lilja/ Jake Scott (RFAs-Indy........ 2007 Base- $6.50 million ........... You are giving 26% of the 109million cap to a corner and 2 guards?
LynchMob23 Posted February 21, 2007 Posted February 21, 2007 To be fair though Pyrite, the Bills (and most c2 teams) only use the cover two about 40% of the time. So to have that guy on the team would allow for more man to man opportunities prior to third down. Here's an excerpt from SI.com: Football is neither as complex as calculus nor as simple as 11 bodies trying to assault the man with the ball. It is in a realm somewhere in between, where offensive and defensive savants design systems to manage the chaos. The sport is a game of innovation and reaction. Tampa Two is the latest defensive ploy, and in the decade since its birth (or, more properly, its rebirth), it has swept through the NFL. No team plays the scheme on every snap, and even Urlacher estimates that the Bears play Tampa Two no more than 35% to 40% of the time. However, Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz estimates that "30 out of 32 teams play it" at some point in every game. In simplest terms Tampa Two is a zone with two deep safeties each covering half the width of the field, two cornerbacks jamming receivers at the line, two outside linebackers patrolling the short zones, a middle linebacker roaming from the line to as much as 30 yards downfield, and four pass rushers. The Tampa Two came of age on Jan. 23, 2000, when the Buccaneers held the high-scoring St. Louis Rams to one touchdown in an 11-6 playoff loss. "There was a sense around the league that the Rams' offense was pretty much unstoppable," says Dungy, who coached the Bucs from 1996 to 2001 and has coached the Colts since. "This is a copycat league. People saw that game and started doing what we were doing." In addition to the Bears (whose coach, Lovie Smith, was a Tampa Bay assistant under Dungy and Bucs defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin), the Broncos, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Lions, Saints and Vikings all play many snaps in Tampa Two. Chicago was in the scheme extensively in Sunday's 10-0 road victory over the Jets (which raised their record to 9-1), including on a critical Urlacher interception in the end zone in the second quarter. Current popularity aside, however, the Tampa Two has deep roots, extending back to one of the most famous defenses in NFL history.
BUFFALOTONE Posted February 21, 2007 Posted February 21, 2007 Reading through the lines at Marv's responses from Friday's Press Conference, I sat back, took the weekend, and thought about how the Bills can retain Clements long term, and sign two OL's while letting Kelsay and Fletcher go. Assuming Hargrove can replace Kelsay and Crowell can replace Fletcher with Ellison (he's already the same size as Cato June) taking over for Crowell at the "Will" LB spot, here's how they can spend "to the Cap" and accomplish the above while not "mortgaging the future" as per Marv. I assume that they will spend $30 million after accounting for their 2007 picks and RFA's (retaining Greer, Hargrove, and Anderson (for depth)). I noted that Marv indicated they would be more selective in FA this year so besides role players/backups (i.e. A-Train, K.Thomas, A. Davis) I believe they wish to resign to relatively cheap deals, I think the following 3 free agents will be pursued. First, let's assume they re-sign their biggest FA Nate Clements-will be looking for a big pay day and probably deserves it. He has generally been a top 5-10 cornerback and has indicated he is willing to come back to Buffalo for the right deal. Here's my offer if I am the Bills. 2007- Base 12.0 million 2008- Base 7.5 million, 3.0 roster bonus 2009- Base 8.0 million, 1.5 roster bonus 2010- Base 8.5 million, 1.0 roster bonus 2011- Base 9.0 million 2012- Base 10.0 million Final Total- 6 years/$60.5 million with $22.5 million in first two years and $32 million in first 3. Remember, Nate's cap number for this year, if he were tagged again, would be approximately $9.0 so this is not too far off the market while maintaining flexibility for the Bills in the event of injury/decline in play toward the end of the contract. Now, the Bills still have approx. $18 million left for other free agents. Next on my list are a couple offensive lineman. I am assumiing that Villarial and Reyes are let go--saving some additional $$$ for our "Cash to the Cap" spree... 2) Eric Steinbach- Marv indicated that they still had to discuss Mike Gandy some more so that leads me to believe a new LG is likely. Here's how I think they can get the best one out there this year. 2007 Base- $9.5 million 2008 Base- $4.0 million, roster bonus $3.0 million 2009 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2010 Base- $4.5 million, roster bonus $2.0 million 2011 Base- $6.0 million 2012 Base- $7.0 million A deal for 6 years/ $42.5million with $16.5 million for two years and $23million for 3 years. Plus our "Cash to the Cap" is reduced by $9.5 million to approximately $8.5 million. 3) Ryan Lilja/ Jake Scott (RFAs-Indy)- With the franchising of Dwight Freeney and numerous other free agents, I think the Bills might make a play for one of the above. I beleive Lilja has no compensation since he was undrafted, plus he played RG for the Colts, so let's have him be the first choice. 2007 Base- $6.50 million 2008 Base- $2.25 million, roster bonus $1.5 million 2009 Base- $2.75million, roster bonus $1.0 million 2010 Base- $3.25 million So 4years/ $17.5 million with more up front to dissuade/prevent a match from the Colts. The Cash to the Cap figure is reduced by $6.5 million to $2.0 million. This money would be used to resign A-train and K. Thomas, etc. I realize it might exceed the exact amount but maybe Ralph can sell another Monet, or take the additional $3-4 million from the increased ticket price to fill in the blanks with veteran depth. It might not work but hey, it fitsd the model the Bills will allegedly follow.. they couldn then draft for additional depth at RB, LB and DL. It should be fun starting on March 2. You must really have nothing better to do with your weekend.
donahoeisgod Posted February 21, 2007 Author Posted February 21, 2007 You must really have nothing better to do with your weekend. It was either that or accompany my wife to my sister in law's house for a family "vacation." As for the criticism that I am devoting approximately 25% of the cap this year to two guards and a CB, I agree with the premise but note that I would rather give it up to three players who I believe can help me improve than 5-6 free agent role player signings like Peerless Price and Ryan Denney.
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