in the grand scheme of things

[dave mcbride]

The fate of the Bills rests on a couple of issues, and the status of Nate Clements isn't one of them. There are four things that far outweigh whatever value Clements offers (and it's not negligible - he's quite good).

 

1.) [by far] - the play of the quarterback. Put simply, if Losman turns out to be good, the Bills will, at the worst, be decent. Very few teams with good QBs and shaky secondaries stink. Very many teams with good CBs and lousy QBs stink.

 

2.) Coaching. See above.

 

3.) Offensive line -- this is related to (1), but the point is that teams with good offensive lines and good quarterbacks usually win. It's better to have good CBs than not, but all the same they don't matter as much as QBs and offensive lines.

 

4.) Defensive line. Defensive lines are more important because they can stop the run and therefore control the tempo of a game. Also, if they're good, they can rush the passer and destroy a team's passing game. A good CB is obviously welcome, but they simply aren't as important in the running game. You don't want bad players back there, but serviceable guys won't kill your chances of winning a division.

 

Look at the playoff teams this year:

 

Seattle, which almost made it to the championship game, was playing with four subs in the secondary by the end of the season.

 

No one on the Bears secondary comes close to Clements, but the Bears had a significantly better defense than the Bills because of their front seven.

 

Same with the Pats (Samuel, while good, isn't half the specimen that Clements is).

 

The Chargers didn't win 14 games because of their cornerbacks.

 

Name me one cornerback on Indy without looking them up.

 

The Chiefs enlisted Ty Law, who did help them mightily, but that team squeaked into the playoffs at 9-7 and were quickly and brutally dispatched because of truly subpar QB play from the quickly deteriorating Trent Green.

 

The Jets don't have any cornerbacks whose names you'll recognize.

 

The Ravens have McAlister, granted, but all the same that team is unique in that it won entirely via defense. Anyway, look at what happened to them at home in their sole playoff game. They couldn't score.

 

The Cowboys have one very good CB in Newman, who actually performed very well this year. But that team got as far as it did because of their offense and the switch to Tony Romo.

 

The Eagles secondary is solid, but they don't have franchise CBs who command the sort of money that Clements will.

 

The Giants have nonentities at cornerback (not that they don't need better ones).

 

New Orleans' CBs are downright weak, yet if not for inclement weather in Chicago, they may have made it to the Super Bowl.

 

The Broncos, with the best CB in the league, didn't make the playoffs. Why? They had no capable quarterback, and their o-line has declined. Rashean Mathis is excellent as well, but because Jax doesn't have a credible QB, they tanked it.

 

Also, the Steelers won the Super Bowl last year with cornerbacks you've never heard of (as did New England the year before).

 

The Bills haven't had a chance at being great since Kelly and the O-line declined, despite have a consistently strong defense from 1995-2000.

 

Bottom line: if JP comes through and the offensive line and defensive front seven measurably improve, the Bills stand a good chance of becoming good again.

[K-Gun10]

I really thinks it ridiculous bills never re-sign any of there top free agents just another one going to a different team, and without clements i believe it will be a step back because anything after clements is unproving.

[Pyrite Gal]

I really thinks it ridiculous bills never re-sign any of there top free agents just another one going to a different team, and without clements i believe it will be a step back because anything after clements is unproving.

 

Part of the reason the Bills do not resign FAs is that they extend players such as Schobel, Crowell, McGee, Peters. etc. well before they even get to FA status. I think it is not a completely accurate indictment to claim they never sign people long term because they do and this is a more useful metric than totaling up the number of FAs who walked,

 

In addition to guys they decided long ago they were unlikely to resign (including good players like Clements who they wrote off when they made the switch to a Cover 2 which does not employ his talents fully or Jennings who thank gosh they did not resign given how injury prone he was with us and it has gotten worse with SF who showed him the money to their dismay) there are case like Winfield who they seemed on track to resign and extend early but Milloy unexpectedly appeared on the market and they used the chunk of change set aside for a cheaper early resigning of AW to buy Milloy rather than start Coy Wire at SS after we had agreed to deals with Cota and Battle to be SS and both retired.

 

A look at events reveals that them not resigning FAs is not as significant as it may appear to be.

[Acantha]

The fate of the Bills rests on a couple of issues, and the status of Nate Clements isn't one of them. There are four things that far outweigh whatever value Clements offers (and it's not negligible - he's quite good).

I agree with what you're saying in regards to Clements and a whole team outlook. The scary part is we are currently weak at all of the important positions you mentioned.

 

QB: Losman is an X factor. He played much better at the end of the season and the jury is out until we see him next season. While he played better and I'm excited about his potential, if he doesn't keep improving he won't be the QB that can make up for a weak secondary.

 

OL: Also improved last year, but again they are still quite a ways from being enough. IMO it will take improved play from both guards and RT. That improved play may come from the young players we already have on the roster or through FA/Draft, but 3 positions on the line are currently weak, and that isn't good.

 

DL: Right now, AS is the only impact player on that line. I think the the guys that are left are capable of playing better, especially Williams and McCargo entering their second year, but again, we have 3 positions on that line that need better play than we saw last year...especially if you are trying to cover for the lack of Clements.

 

LB: Losing London is going to hurt. We currently have no MLB that can take his place. Takeo is another big question mark. Can he play like we have seen him in the past? Who knows. How about Crowell and Ellison? Are these guys ready to move their play up another level? They have both shown promise, but they need to get better if this team is going to succeed.

 

The one area where I think we are going to get some great help is the Safeties. In a cover 2, the safeties can help cover for weak CB's, and with a full year of starting under their belts Whitner and Simpson can help close the gap losing Clements will open up.

 

So while I agree with you on Clements, can we expect to see enough changes to be that successful team your talking about? Honestly, I don't think so. IMO, the best possible scenario is to get vastly improved play from Losman, Preston, McCargo, Williams, Crowell and Spikes along with solid additions to LG, RT, MLB, DE, and CB (at very least we'll need more depth here). And this doesn't even take into account McGahee's ups and downs, lack of true number 2 receiver, an unproven TE, no real FB to speak of, and any real depth at most of the positions on the team to take over in case of injuries. (These are all areas where I think we will be okay at if we can fix the other stuff, but are scary when looking at the big picture)

 

It's a lot to expect.

[daquixers_is_back]

The fate of the Bills rests on a couple of issues, and the status of Nate Clements isn't one of them. There are four things that far outweigh whatever value Clements offers (and it's not negligible - he's quite good).

 

1.) [by far] - the play of the quarterback. Put simply, if Losman turns out to be good, the Bills will, at the worst, be decent. Very few teams with good QBs and shaky secondaries stink. Very many teams with good CBs and lousy QBs stink.

 

2.) Coaching. See above.

 

3.) Offensive line -- this is related to (1), but the point is that teams with good offensive lines and good quarterbacks usually win. It's better to have good CBs than not, but all the same they don't matter as much as QBs and offensive lines.

 

4.) Defensive line. Defensive lines are more important because they can stop the run and therefore control the tempo of a game. Also, if they're good, they can rush the passer and destroy a team's passing game. A good CB is obviously welcome, but they simply aren't as important in the running game. You don't want bad players back there, but serviceable guys won't kill your chances of winning a division.

 

Look at the playoff teams this year:

 

Seattle, which almost made it to the championship game, was playing with four subs in the secondary by the end of the season.

 

No one on the Bears secondary comes close to Clements, but the Bears had a significantly better defense than the Bills because of their front seven.

 

Same with the Pats (Samuel, while good, isn't half the specimen that Clements is).

 

The Chargers didn't win 14 games because of their cornerbacks.

 

Name me one cornerback on Indy without looking them up.

 

The Chiefs enlisted Ty Law, who did help them mightily, but that team squeaked into the playoffs at 9-7 and were quickly and brutally dispatched because of truly subpar QB play from the quickly deteriorating Trent Green.

 

The Jets don't have any cornerbacks whose names you'll recognize.

 

The Ravens have McAlister, granted, but all the same that team is unique in that it won entirely via defense. Anyway, look at what happened to them at home in their sole playoff game. They couldn't score.

 

The Cowboys have one very good CB in Newman, who actually performed very well this year. But that team got as far as it did because of their offense and the switch to Tony Romo.

 

The Eagles secondary is solid, but they don't have franchise CBs who command the sort of money that Clements will.

 

The Giants have nonentities at cornerback (not that they don't need better ones).

 

New Orleans' CBs are downright weak, yet if not for inclement weather in Chicago, they may have made it to the Super Bowl.

 

The Broncos, with the best CB in the league, didn't make the playoffs. Why? They had no capable quarterback, and their o-line has declined. Rashean Mathis is excellent as well, but because Jax doesn't have a credible QB, they tanked it.

 

Also, the Steelers won the Super Bowl last year with cornerbacks you've never heard of (as did New England the year before).

 

The Bills haven't had a chance at being great since Kelly and the O-line declined, despite have a consistently strong defense from 1995-2000.

 

Bottom line: if JP comes through and the offensive line and defensive front seven measurably improve, the Bills stand a good chance of becoming good again.

 

Well I suppose if Clements leaves, our run defense will automatically get better. Teams will have such an easy time passing on us that they won't even need to run. Imagine a secondary with Toast McGee as our #1, and Youboty (a player with about 9 minutes of playing time) as our #2. Oh boy.

[Pyrite Gal]

Well I suppose if Clements leaves, our run defense will automatically get better. Teams will have such an easy time passing on us that they won't even need to run. Imagine a secondary with Toast McGee as our #1, and Youboty (a player with about 9 minutes of playing time) as our #2. Oh boy.

 

The Bills will not automatically get better if the lose NC, but they will get better if they allocate the money which NC is likely to get from the market on other positions in choosing better players to make the cover 2 we run more productive.

 

I think folks are fooling themselves if they do not recognize that NC is by far the best CB on the Bills,

 

However, I also do not think that people are looking at the game correctly is they do not realize that our Cover 2 D scheme does not utilize Clements up to his full potential and that the huge contract which would be necessary to lock up NC is far better utilized by this team to improve other positions.

 

The Cover 2 as implemented by the Bills calls for generally releasing the WR after 10-15 yards to the safeties and MLB who have divided the deep cover into thirds. Dre Bly is leaving Detroit with the articulated complaint that the Cover 2 they run (which Jauron HC'ed season before this one) does not utilize the CBs to their full extent and specifically lowers their chances for INTs as they do not cover players going deep.

 

This was seen in the Bills stats last year as MLB Fletch beat out both NC and McGee to lead the team in INTs.

 

Nate has far more chances to be a playmaker if he goes to another team which plays their CBs in a way that utilizes his skills reading the QBs eyes and the opponents plays so that he can jump routes to return INTs for TDs (something he was able to do once for the Bills this year as we do vary our coverage style a little so we are not so predictable) or he can freelance and roam the field a little for INTs. Instead the Cover 2 CB is required to do press coverage (which Nate can do though he is better in loose schemes). The hope of the Bills is that McGee finally gets it as seen in the final 8 games of the season (the stats indicate he did as QBs chose to challenge NC a bit more rather than simply pick on a befuddled McGee as indicated by all three of NC's INTs coming in the second half of the season) and that Youbouty can step up as his rep is one of doing good press coverage.

 

It would be foolish for anyone to think that either of these two players or the second tier FA they are likely to acquire can be as good as NC, however, though they are not nearly as good as him it is possible they can replace him as the CB is called upon in our Cover 2 to play a rather limited role.

[dave mcbride]

Well I suppose if Clements leaves, our run defense will automatically get better. Teams will have such an easy time passing on us that they won't even need to run. Imagine a secondary with Toast McGee as our #1, and Youboty (a player with about 9 minutes of playing time) as our #2. Oh boy.

that's a weak response.

[The Cincinnati Kid]

I agree with Pyrite Gal. You have done an excellent job of explaining what it means to run a cover 2 defense that many people are over-looking. We have other needs that will be more worth our 30 million dollars than NC. He is good, IMO not nearly a top 5 corner, more like a 10, 11, or 12 in the league but his money demands and the things he wants to do cannot be done in Perry's D. Youboty and McGee are the guys along with (hopefully) Thomas and we will be more than fine at the CB positions because of our Stud Safties and the scheme.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Well I suppose if Clements leaves, our run defense will automatically get better. Teams will have such an easy time passing on us that they won't even need to run. Imagine a secondary with Toast McGee as our #1, and Youboty (a player with about 9 minutes of playing time) as our #2. Oh boy.

Just have to say that at one point Asante Samuel was a rough-around-the-edges 4th round rookie with little playing time and a laughable option for the Pats. Things do change.

 

Also, last year was an off-year for McGee. New system, tough breaks. I think he'll be better (though never better than Clements as a CB) this year.

[apuszczalowski]

I agree with Pyrite Gal. You have done an excellent job of explaining what it means to run a cover 2 defense that many people are over-looking. We have other needs that will be more worth our 30 million dollars than NC. He is good, IMO not nearly a top 5 corner, more like a 10, 11, or 12 in the league but his money demands and the things he wants to do cannot be done in Perry's D. Youboty and McGee are the guys along with (hopefully) Thomas and we will be more than fine at the CB positions because of our Stud Safties and the scheme.

Exactly, in any other defencive scheme/system, I would be all for re-signing Clements and would be all for running a front office out if they didn't do it. IN a system/scheme where he can be a playmaker, he's worth spending on. But in the cover 2, he can't play to his potential, and he is not a playmaker. The money is better spent elsewhere. No other Cover-2 defence has a stud CB making the system work. What they have is a stud d-line and LBer corps making the system work. As long as Marv works on that area with the money saved from letting Clements go, I am ok with this decission. If Clements wants to come back and play for Buffalo, he will have to be willing to play for less then what he will get on the open market, cause Buffalo doesn't have the room to sign a high priced corner for this defence. Clements right now is a luxury. He's a luxury on a team that is scraping to get by and can not afford any. Sometimes you have to get rid of the luxuries to get yourself back up to the point where you can afford them again.

[dave mcbride]

Exactly, in any other defencive scheme/system, I would be all for re-signing Clements and would be all for running a front office out if they didn't do it. IN a system/scheme where he can be a playmaker, he's worth spending on. But in the cover 2, he can't play to his potential, and he is not a playmaker. The money is better spent elsewhere. No other Cover-2 defence has a stud CB making the system work. What they have is a stud d-line and LBer corps making the system work. As long as Marv works on that area with the money saved from letting Clements go, I am ok with this decission. If Clements wants to come back and play for Buffalo, he will have to be willing to play for less then what he will get on the open market, cause Buffalo doesn't have the room to sign a high priced corner for this defence. Clements right now is a luxury. He's a luxury on a team that is scraping to get by and can not afford any. Sometimes you have to get rid of the luxuries to get yourself back up to the point where you can afford them again.

He *was* a playmaker last year, and the best player on the defense by far regardless of scheme. My point is that in terms of becoming a playoff contender, cornerbacks are one of the last pieces of the puzzle, not one of the first. qb (by far), coach, oline, defensive front seven, and then take your pick: RB, WR, CB. i'd put TE and safeties last (not that they're unimportant).

[daquixers_is_back]

that's a weak response.

 

Are you serious? Its called a joke.

 

Just have to say that at one point Asante Samuel was a rough-around-the-edges 4th round rookie with little playing time and a laughable option for the Pats. Things do change.

 

Also, last year was an off-year for McGee. New system, tough breaks. I think he'll be better (though never better than Clements as a CB) this year.

 

A. Samuels always showed really good promise. His first year, he picked off 2 passes. Then from his 2nd year on, he batted down at least 11 balls each season. Please don't compare Youboty and Samuels ... although I hope he somehow morphs into a Samuels type of player.

[alg]

Nice post Dave.

 

The key is something that does not get stressed enough - CB is de-valued in the Cover 2 system. I think it may be done for a very important reason; namely, it is a way to avoid having to pay top corners so much money that it drains the coffers for OL and DL. It is a way to reorient the salary structure of a team to stress fundamentals of team play. DL is simply more important in any scheme in the NFL, and the C2 allows teams to get players up and running faster.

 

I look at it as the same philosophy used for OL. Teams cannot pay top money to everyone on the OL, so they put their money into the more demanding and rare talents at tackle. The guards are easier and cheaper to acquire. The team, therefore, is much better positioned for success then if they left too little money looking for an OT. Same thing happened at LB and RB.

 

Don't get me wrong, CB is widely known as one of the positions teams earmark for big bucks. The others are QB, OT, WR, and DE. Its clear that DT has had a huge increase in recent years too, but you get my point. Now what happens if you can remove one of the MUST-HAVE, MUST GIVE HUGE $$$ TO positions? More money for the rest of the team. The reliance on the S position in C2 supports this, since Ss are universally cheaper then CBs. (Unless you draft them at #8.)

 

This is why IND seems to let their LBs go every year, and let a CB like Harper walk. They have huge bucks at QB, WR, probably OT, and Freeney is going to back the truck up this off-season. You as GM put your money into the rarest of skill position talents and make due with the rest - where the talent is not as rare or hard to acquire.