Kelly the Dog Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 I am neither a gloom and doomer, nor a Marv knows best guy. I was pleasantly surprised last year by Marv and Jauron, and the young guys. But just because they played better than expected, should not be confused with playing good. We were at best an average team. But one with a lot of potential, or at least a decent amount. The problem with what has transpired the last week is, no one knows what other teams are going to be offering these guys. No one knows what players are interested or willing to come to Buffalo to play for Jauron and/or Marv. No one knows what Nate is going to command. But saying what they did, and doing what they are doing, they are eliminating themselves automatically from players that they could potentially sign for money that those players may be worth. By saying we're paying only 30 mil tops, no matter what, we cannot sign Nate Clements or Eric Steinbach. We simply can't. Not if we want to fill the other nine position that need to be filled, some of which, like DT and OG and MLB are vital. A smarter tact, it seems to me, is simply to play it out. We may not want to sign Clements or Steinbach or Dockery to huge contracts, because they may not be worth it. But we don't know if they are worth it until we find out what the market is for them, and what they are looking for. Players may rule out Buffalo right now because of what they read and heard, when before they might have found Buffalo to be an intriguing possibility. Players should ALL be individually evaluated for what they are worth, to this team, at that position, at this time, in relation to other players we have on this team. And not just say anyone with a big contract is out, which is what we have done, whether you wish to believe it or not. It's almost impossible. It may be that ALL of the top free agents, when the figures come out, and other teams make offers, are not worth the money that other teams are paying them. I would be okay with that because most of them indeed will be getting too much. Teams have too much money this year because of the TV contracts. But we're already starting 20 million down because we decided prematurely that we don't want to play, and don't want to pay. And I think it's a serious mistake. Granted, we will be able to sign a few good men, to Larry Tripplett sized contracts. It may be that our personnel department suddenly can weed out the good from the poor players, although that has yet to be shown in the last decade. But to just come out now, and say we're not playing with a full deck, literally and figuratively, is bad for the Bills and offers no advantages that I can even imagine.
Dual RB way to go Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 Your point has alot of common sense. Who knows what the market will bear? What if marv did the opposite? He stated publicly that the Bills will sign these 3 free agents at all costs. This will scare the other teams off. The other teams will sign their free agents and draft players for those positions. After there is no market left for these three players, Marv announces that the cupboard is bare and they will have to settle for peanuts. We get all 3 players, save alot of doh, and marv is a genius! Although I think your idea has a better shot!
JoeF Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 You are dead on...we need to be better at pro and college scouting than anyone; we need to be better at developing talent than anyone; we need to be better at selecting talent that fits the system...I think there are strategies like looking for select RFA's whose teams are up against the CAP and ballooning first year salaries--that we can use this situation to our advantage--but it all comes down to us finding talent where noone else can... I hope Ralph has a travel budget for the scouts--I hear there is a 1 DT prospect in Uzbekistan...
Coach Tuesday Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 I understand your point, but after the Donahoe regime I'm content with just having honesty spouted from the GM's mouth, even if it puts us at a competitive disadvantage. And, I don't even think it does. The "value" of these players isn't as hard to figure out as you make it out to be - Marv (or at least, Overdorf) is in contact with agents and other GMs all of the time. There would be little difference between making Nate an offer and having it rejected, and just coming out and saying, "We're not in a position to sign Nate." It may not be what fans want to hear, but it's the truth. After years of hearing how great and competitive this team was, only to have it come crashing down by Oct. 1 every year, it's amazingly refreshing to have the GM come out and say, "We have a lot of work to do, and not a lot of money to spend."
The Big Cat Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 You are dead on...we need to be better at pro and college scouting than anyone; we need to be better at developing talent than anyone; we need to be better at selecting talent that fits the system...I think there are strategies like looking for select RFA's whose teams are up against the CAP and ballooning first year salaries--that we can use this situation to our advantage--but it all comes down to us finding talent where noone else can... Yes. Where and when was it reported that Bills are going to quick before the game starts? Because Marv said they're not going over the cap? I don't understand where this is coming from.
PNW_Bills_Fan Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 Marv understands that it is going to take more than three players to help this team become a dynasty. He understands we are still a couple years away. If they can have a couple good drafts and keep out of salary cap problems. Then in the future when we need to sign the big free agent we will be able to without breaking the bank and hurting our team. Marv has the long term in mind and Ralph is no idiot.
JoeF Posted February 19, 2007 Posted February 19, 2007 Yes. Where and when was it reported that Bills are going to quick before the game starts? Because Marv said they're not going over the cap? I don't understand where this is coming from. To quote the infamous Senator John Blutarsky: "Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" --When the going gets tough.... To quote DeLuca's favorite GM in whole wide world: "When its too tough for them, its just right for us." I am amazed at the number of people who want to give up before we even see what moves are made in Free Agency and what players are secured in the draft and college free agency. We all scratched our head at the draft last year-and that didn't turn out so bad... Not asking for Rose Colored glasses but don't write off the season in February..wow...
The Big Cat Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 To quote the infamous Senator John Blutarsky: "Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" --When the going gets tough.... To quote DeLuca's favorite GM in whole wide world: "When its too tough for them, its just right for us." I am amazed at the number of people who want to give up before we even see what moves are made in Free Agency and what players are secured in the draft and college free agency. We all scratched our head at the draft last year-and that didn't turn out so bad... Not asking for Rose Colored glasses but don't write off the season in February..wow... that didn't really answer my question...?
Dual RB way to go Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 Is Marv just helping to reduce the money totals that teams are going to offer? If they won't match any offer does that help reduce what a team might offer to these free agents?
JoeF Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 that didn't really answer my question...? Marv didn't say we were going to quick or quit before the game starts.
obie_wan Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 By saying we're paying only 30 mil tops, no matter what, we cannot sign Nate Clements or Eric Steinbach. We simply can't. Not if we want to fill the other nine position that need to be filled, some of which, like DT and OG and MLB are vital. It may be that ALL of the top free agents, when the figures come out, and other teams make offers, are not worth the money that other teams are paying them. I would be okay with that because most of them indeed will be getting too much. Teams have too much money this year because of the TV contracts. But we're already starting 20 million down because we decided prematurely that we don't want to play, and don't want to pay. And I think it's a serious mistake. The sky is not falling. The Bills will do what they have been doing since John Butler left after putting us in cap hell- offering contracts with tiered bonuses and that are not back loaded so a player will be expected to play out the entire deal. The difference between Teflon tom and Marv is that Marv won't be looking for the flashy deal in order to get on ESPN like TD did. Since the entire signing bonus won't be paid in year 1, (but is guaranteed) the Bills can compete for any free agent on the market. The criteria, as it should be, is whether that player is young enough to play out his contract at a high enough production to justify the big contract. They will make an offer for Clements, but it will be at a value that matches his role in the Cover-2.
Buftex Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 I am neither a gloom and doomer, nor a Marv knows best guy. I was pleasantly surprised last year by Marv and Jauron, and the young guys. But just because they played better than expected, should not be confused with playing good. We were at best an average team. But one with a lot of potential, or at least a decent amount. The problem with what has transpired the last week is, no one knows what other teams are going to be offering these guys. No one knows what players are interested or willing to come to Buffalo to play for Jauron and/or Marv. No one knows what Nate is going to command. But saying what they did, and doing what they are doing, they are eliminating themselves automatically from players that they could potentially sign for money that those players may be worth. By saying we're paying only 30 mil tops, no matter what, we cannot sign Nate Clements or Eric Steinbach. We simply can't. Not if we want to fill the other nine position that need to be filled, some of which, like DT and OG and MLB are vital. A smarter tact, it seems to me, is simply to play it out. We may not want to sign Clements or Steinbach or Dockery to huge contracts, because they may not be worth it. But we don't know if they are worth it until we find out what the market is for them, and what they are looking for. Players may rule out Buffalo right now because of what they read and heard, when before they might have found Buffalo to be an intriguing possibility. Players should ALL be individually evaluated for what they are worth, to this team, at that position, at this time, in relation to other players we have on this team. And not just say anyone with a big contract is out, which is what we have done, whether you wish to believe it or not. It's almost impossible. It may be that ALL of the top free agents, when the figures come out, and other teams make offers, are not worth the money that other teams are paying them. I would be okay with that because most of them indeed will be getting too much. Teams have too much money this year because of the TV contracts. But we're already starting 20 million down because we decided prematurely that we don't want to play, and don't want to pay. And I think it's a serious mistake. Granted, we will be able to sign a few good men, to Larry Tripplett sized contracts. It may be that our personnel department suddenly can weed out the good from the poor players, although that has yet to be shown in the last decade. But to just come out now, and say we're not playing with a full deck, literally and figuratively, is bad for the Bills and offers no advantages that I can even imagine. Great post Kelly! I don't want to be one of those "sky is falling" gloom and doom fans, I try really hard to fight it...but I don't honestly know how any Bills fan could have listened to that PC last Friday, and not been a little numb. Basically, Marv was telling us is that the Bills are not going to be "players" in the NFL anymore...like the Bengals, before the Palmer era...not willing to pay players to stay (goodbye Lee Evans, see ya JP, good luck wherever...), and not able to attract proven quality FA's, and will be completely dependent on our suspect personel department to keep us competitive..."it worked for the Patriots" will be our rallying cry....
obie_wan Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 Great post Kelly! I don't want to be one of those "sky is falling" gloom and doom fans, I try really hard to fight it...but I don't honestly know how any Bills fan could have listened to that PC last Friday, and not been a little numb. Basically, Marv was telling us is that the Bills are not going to be "players" in the NFL anymore...like the Bengals, before the Palmer era...not willing to pay players to stay (goodbye Lee Evans, see ya JP, good luck wherever...), and not able to attract proven quality FA's, and will be completely dependent on our suspect personel department to keep us competitive..."it worked for the Patriots" will be our rallying cry.... why do you guys even bother posting on this board if you are convinced the Bills are now a minor league team?
Simon Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 They will make an offer for Clements, but it will be at a value that matches his role in the Cover-2. If they make an offer to Clements that actually matches his role last year, Nate's not going anywhere because he's about to be one of the highest paid players in the NFL.
JoeF Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 why do you guys even bother posting on this board if you are convinced the Bills are now a minor league team? Because everyone is smarter than the current Owner, GM, Coach, Pro and College Scouting staff I guess....certain members can predict the future with 100% accuracy...that's why they are posting on this board.. Seriously, its okay to take the pessimistic approach...this team has a track record of disappointments and its just the Buffalo way to get beaten down and pick yourself up off the mat to get hit again. A lot of folks just go in thinking that there's no way any situation the Bills face will turn out well for the team and their fans...that's fine..TBD takes the tired, the hungry, the positive realists, the negative realists, the rose colored glasses crowd and the doom and gloomers.. I think we will end up with a couple of RFA's and UFA's who will fill the major holes we have; we will have a reasonable draft netting a couple of immediate impact players -- we will be worse against the pass; equal on 3rd down D (Still bad); better against the run; better at getting to the QB; more turnovers; give up more points; still great at Special Teams and on O we will improve our passing game; running game; third down conversion rate and score more points... We faced 7 of the 9 best defenses this year and we faced a murder's row of RB -- the schedule doesn't get any easier or much tougher--I choose to take the bright side of realism..
keepthefaith Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 To quote the infamous Senator John Blutarsky: "Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" --When the going gets tough.... To quote DeLuca's favorite GM in whole wide world: "When its too tough for them, its just right for us." I am amazed at the number of people who want to give up before we even see what moves are made in Free Agency and what players are secured in the draft and college free agency. We all scratched our head at the draft last year-and that didn't turn out so bad... Not asking for Rose Colored glasses but don't write off the season in February..wow... Darned right. With regard to Nate, the Bills have a shot a him if they really want him. That's the first question. Is Dick Jauron telling Marv "hey, we need this guy. Get him signed." or is he telling Marv "we have greater needs on both lines. Let's focus on those first." With Nate, they have some cards to play. First, the Bills kept their word. They didn't tag Nate the 2nd time around. Second, by tagging him last year, they gave him a huge raise. That has to count for something. It's the Bills that paid Nate $7.5 million last year and helped him get in the position he's in now, a very good position. Third, if he wants to continue in Buffalo, the Bills are in a position to offer him a contract that will provide him financial security for the remainder of his life. Fourth, ask for a last look at the deal. The Bills have earned that right on the previous points. If they can't get a last look at the deal after what they have done for Nate over the past year, then they are extremely weak negotiators or they are dealing with a player and agent that don't want to be in Buffalo or they don't want him that badly. They have showed Nate a ton of respect over the past year. If they want the guy or any other guy for that matter, I would expect them to go after those players with some determination and fire in their belly. For if they don't, they won't sign anybody. I am not fooled by Marv's vanilla press conference. Among the team leadership there has to be some aggressive planning and hard work going on behind the scenes. People willing to get after it. This is football dammit! Eat matches and schitt fire!
Dibs Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 By saying we're paying only 30 mil tops, no matter what, we cannot sign Nate Clements or Eric Steinbach. We simply can't. Not if we want to fill the other nine position that need to be filled, some of which, like DT and OG and MLB are vital. I think we should be able to do a lot more than people are fearing. With creative contracts, I see no reason why we can't get a Steinbach as well as the other eight guys you mentioned. At a huge guess I'll say Steinbach will want $15mil signing bonus. What if we offer a $3mil signing bonus & guaranteed monies of $3mil for the following 5 years(we'd have to add more due to the lost interest). That way, he is guaranteed(even if cut or injured) to get $18mil(over 6 years) instead of a $15mil signing bonus. If his salary only $2mil for year 1.....that means our cap(cash) hit would only be $5mil. $5mil for Steinbach is certainly doable.
Captain Hindsight Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 Here's my thinking, the bills say they won't break the bank for a free agent, so all that tells me is hey we are going to do the eact same thing we did last yesr find guys who want to play bc they love football and want to win. not everyone is about money, some guys in the nfl really love the game and marv will find them and they will work hard for less and produce more, wow kinda like Fowler and peters and reed and price (on occasion) what about simpson and whitner, great picks both of them, Ellison, coy wire, davis was a great special teamer. All these guys wernt making a ton of money and still played hard bc they want to play for juaron and build a championship team. look for more of that next year O and look for JP to be even better next year.... just a thought
The Big Cat Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 Here's my thinking, the bills say they won't break the bank for a free agent, so all that tells me is hey we are going to do the eact same thing we did last yesr find guys who want to play bc they love football and want to win. not everyone is about money, some guys in the nfl really love the game and marv will find them and they will work hard for less and produce more, wow kinda like Fowler and peters and reed and price (on occasion) what about simpson and whitner, great picks both of them, Ellison, coy wire, davis was a great special teamer. All these guys wernt making a ton of money and still played hard bc they want to play for juaron and build a championship team. look for more of that next yearO and look for JP to be even better next year.... just a thought Well done and well said. Guys who want to play football- bingo! It surprised me how many times Jauron described players (JP, Willis, and Dante come to mind) as guys who "loved to play footbal." He said this in press conferences...a lot. Furthermore, all these "football" guys seem to understand the importance of playing as a team and I love that Jauron and Levy are their leaders. This is why I don't foresee big spending in Free Agency and a few wood-work draft picks. People have longed complained about Buffalo's inability to keep, develop, or even obtain big name talent. I say, let the league have their gazillionaire hollywood heros- I'll take a team any day.
Buftex Posted February 20, 2007 Posted February 20, 2007 why do you guys even bother posting on this board if you are convinced the Bills are now a minor league team? I have been a Bills fan for almost 40 years. They have been, essentially, a minor league team for the majority of that time...hasn't stopped me from being a fan. Sorry if that bothers you!
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