Bills and Jets will battle for AFC east title next season

[Long Island Phil]

Its obvious that Jets and Bills were the only 2 AFC east teams to improve this past season. JP Losman showed he is gonna be a good NFL QB and the Bills finished very strongly. The Jets had a nice draft and performed above anyones expectations and may have a good coach for years to come.

The Dolphins will have a new coach again and with an aging defense should continue to suck.

Are the Patriots the team to beat? Of course. However, I say they will take a step backwards next year leaving the Bills and Jets to battle for the division.

Happy winter!

Phil

[ganesh]

Its obvious that Jets and Bills were the only 2 AFC east teams to improve this past season. JP Losman showed he is gonna be a good NFL QB and the Bills finished very strongly. The Jets had a nice draft and performed above anyones expectations and may have a good coach for years to come.

The Dolphins will have a new coach again and with an aging defense should continue to suck.

Are the Patriots the team to beat? Of course. However, I say they will take a step backwards next year leaving the Bills and Jets to battle for the division.

Happy winter!

Phil

 

I hope it is so...However, the Pats have 2 1st round picks in the NFL draft this year thanks to the Deion Branch trade to the Seahawks..THe Pats have been successful because of the draft and they will continue to be, unless they have a injury to Brady.

[IDBillzFan]

I hope it is so...However, the Pats have 2 1st round picks in the NFL draft this year thanks to the Deion Branch trade to the Seahawks..THe Pats have been successful because of the draft and they will continue to be, unless they have a injury to Brady.

I have no problem with a three-way battle as long as Miami is sucking the fourth hind tit.

[Hollywood Donahoe]

Its obvious that Jets and Bills were the only 2 AFC east teams to improve this past season.

Patriots in 2005: 10-6, eliminated in divisional round.

Patriots in 2006: 12-4, eliminated in championship round.

 

...the Patriots...will take a step backwards next year...

Why? Just 'cause?

[truth on hold]

Its obvious that Jets and Bills were the only 2 AFC east teams to improve this past season. JP Losman showed he is gonna be a good NFL QB and the Bills finished very strongly. The Jets had a nice draft and performed above anyones expectations and may have a good coach for years to come.

The Dolphins will have a new coach again and with an aging defense should continue to suck.

Are the Patriots the team to beat? Of course. However, I say they will take a step backwards next year leaving the Bills and Jets to battle for the division.

Happy winter!

Phil

Pats and Jets will BOTH most likely have worse records next year. Which will most likely mean Bills have a better record.

 

Here's why:

 

PATS

 

Many holes to fill here and I don't think they can do it all in one season.

 

MLB: Teddy Bruschi is all but retired and if he doesn't Bill & Kraft won't waste any time retiring him. No more "Invisble Man" impersonations from this guy;

 

RB: Dillon is about a year away from being put out to pasture too. As for Maroney he has not proven he's #1 material: he had 13 yards on 8 carries against Chargers and 5 yards on 5 Carries against Colts, when he's needed most.

 

WR: their decisions not to keep top WRs have finally come back to haunt them. Does anyone really think Branch wouldn't have been the difference maker in Indy after seeing Caldwell "Deer in Headlight" eyes drop pass after pass?

 

SS: Harrison is old and often injured and he was a huge key to Pats 2nd and 3rd Super Bowl wins. He's their Bob Sanders that makes the whole defense click.

 

Those are 4 high profile hard to fill positions. I don't care how much under the cap or how many 1st rounders a team has, getting the "right guy" for all those slots in the same year is extremely challenging. And that also assumes they resign super high priced Asante Samuel in the secondary ... a huge "if" for a team that doesn't like to overpay free agents from a player that called their initial offer "insulting."

 

 

JETS

 

- Jets recovery last year simply product of last place schedule and New York media hype. Consider Bills had to play Ravens and Chargers (AFC's best records) whereas Jets had games against AFC's worst records Raiders and Browns. And the Bills played Bears and Colts away whereas Jets had them at home.

 

- They had a single win against a team with a winning record when they beat the Pats in a mud bowl in New England. The field was so bad it had to be replaced after the game; in other words, the conditions made it impossible to determine the better team that day. And the Pats ended up winning the season series at 2 & 1 with a convincing wild card victory.

 

- They waste one of the better wide out pairs in the league - Coles and Cotchery - with the weakest armed QB in the league Pennington. 15 yard floaters are all this guy is capable of throwing and in the modern era that doesn't cut it.

 

- They are in serious need of a power running back.

 

- And DBrick more often looked like "DBust," for example Schoebel lit him up for 3 sacks including a forced fumble in a 31-13 blowout in New Jersey in December.

 

Next season when Jets play a better schedule and teams realize Chad can only throw 15 yard floaters, Mangini's gimmick plays and rocky movie preparations will be exposed as not a substitute for real talent and real coaching.

[Hollywood Donahoe]

Pats and Jets will BOTH most likely have worse records next year. Which will most likely mean Bills have a better record.

 

Here's why:

 

PATS

 

Many holes to fill here and I don't think they can do it all in one season.

 

MLB: Teddy Bruschi is all but retired and if he doesn't Bill & Kraft won't waste any time retiring him. No more "Invisble Man" impersonations from this guy;

 

RB: Dillon is about a year away from being put out to pasture too. As for Maroney he has not proven he's #1 material: he had 13 yards on 8 carries against Chargers and 5 yards on 5 Carries against Colts, when's needed most.

 

WR: their decisions not to keep top WRs have finally come back to haunt them. Does anyone really think Branch wouldn't have been the difference maker in Indy after seeing Caldwell "Deer in Headlight" eyes drop pass after pass?

 

SS: Harrison is old and often injured and he was a huge key to Pats 2nd and 3rd Super Bowl wins. He's their Bob Sanders that makes the whole defense click.

 

Those are 4 high profile hard to fill positions. I don't care how much under the cap or how many 1st rounders a team has, getting the "right guy" for all those slots in the same year is extremely challenging. And that also assumes they resign super high priced Asante Samuel in the secondary ... a huge "if" for a team that doesn't like to overpay free agents from a player that called their initial offer "insulting."

Dude, it sucked the first time. No need to put us through it again.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

I'm curious to see how this off-season goes for the Pats. The rest of the league has surely seen how the Pats treat their players, drafted or otherwise and I can't help but think that this will have an effect on their ability to sign players, much less keep their own FA's. And since there are a ton of teams with loads of cap room, and given their cheapness, I don't see them getting into a bidding war for coveted FA's.

 

But I'm sure HD will be back shortly to tell me why this won't be a problem.

[Hollywood Donahoe]

But I'm sure HD will be back shortly to tell me why this won't be a problem.

Wake me the first time it actually becomes a problem. The Patriots came within a few yards of the Super Bowl this year after an offseason in which their marquee pick-up was Reche Caldwell.

 

The Redskins of the world continue to buy up all the free agents and get nothing to show for it, and the Patriots continue to draft well, stay out of bidding wars, and sign solid players who fit the system, and they keep winning.

 

I really don't see any indications that that will change any time soon. The Patriots are going to contend for a title virtually every year until the Belichick/Pioli/Brady triumvirate is broken up.

[daquixers_is_back]

Patriots in 2005: 10-6, eliminated in divisional round.

Patriots in 2006: 12-4, eliminated in championship round.

Why? Just 'cause?

 

I dont necessarily agree with the poster you were debating, but do you honestly think the Pats of the past 2 years are anywhere NEAR the Pats of 2003/2004? I still think the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC East and will continue to be a very good team, but its more than obvious to see that they have been struggling much more since 2004. Some say its because of Weiss, Crenell, or Branch or blah blah blah. It does'nt matter to me. All I know is that they have been sliding. Maybe they will jump back up to a 14-2, incredible team next year. I dont know.

 

I really don't see any indications that that will change any time soon. The Patriots are going to contend for a title virtually every year until the Belichick/Pioli/Brady triumvirate is broken up.

 

Are you serious? And you know this how? Does 'contend for a title' to you mean that they simply make the playoffs? If so, then I would say that is a fair thing to say. Yet to me 'contend for a title' means your either in the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl, because those are the only games that can get you a title.

[Hollywood Donahoe]

I dont necessarily agree with the poster you were debating, but do you honestly think the Pats of the past 2 years are anywhere NEAR the Pats of 2003/2004?

No, but that's not what I said, was it? I was responding to the original poster's assertion that the Jets and the Bills were the only AFC East teams to improve "this past season," meaning the transition from '05 to '06.

 

The 2004 Pats were a flat out dominating team - the best of the dynasty era. They were a missing Dillon in Pittsburgh and a late-game brain fart in Miami away from 19-0.

 

The '05 team was lucky to make the playoffs. The D was decimated by injury and almost as bad as '02, and there simply wasn't a running game to speak of. I'd put this team slightly above the '02 team.

 

The '06 team, to me, was almost as good as the '03 team, but not quite.

 

...its more than obvious to see that they have been struggling much more since 2004.

Where'd ya come up with that innovate theory?

 

'01-'04: Three Super Bowls

'05-'06: No Super Bowls

 

No sh-- they're struggling more since '04 - "more" is a relative term, and most things pale in comparison to dominance.

 

Does 'contend for a title' to you mean that they simply make the playoffs?

By "contend for a title," I mean that prior to the season in question, the vast majority of reasonable people think that that a team has a very good chance to go to the Super Bowl. The Colts, to me, have been contending for titles since '03, even though they've only gotten as far as the AFCC game in two of those four years.

[tennesseeboy]

The Bills and Jets will NOT..repeat NOT battle for the AFC East next season. The bills will CRUSH the jets....humiliate them. Win both games in shutouts...leave blood and green and white jersey parts all over the field. The two games will be the equivalent of off day practices on the way to the SUPERBOWL. ....hmmm....I gotta stop drinking so much coffee.

[Brandon]

While I don't think the Patriots are going to fall off a cliff anytime in the next couple of years, championship level teams tend to be a more fragile thing than you realize.

 

Look to the last great team in the NFL as an example: the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sure they felt much the same as you do after their Super Bowl victory in 1995. They'd won 60 regular season games in 5 years and 3 Super Bowls. Aikman and Irvin were both 29 and coming off great seasons. Emmitt Smith had an MVP type year and he was just 26. With these HOF players still in the prime, Cowboy fans reasoned, there was absolutely no reason to believe that more championships wouldn't follow.

 

Over the next 5 years, the Dallas Cowboys won just more one playoff game with Aikman and Smith (Irvin retired due to injury in 1999), a 40-15 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in 1996. They lost three more by a combined score of 73-34.

 

Another similar example? None other than the Buffalo Bills. They finished the 1993 season 12-4, with their 4th straight Super Bowl appearance. Kelly, Reed and Thomas were a little older compared to the three in Dallas, but they were still highly productive and had won 70 regular season games in 6 years. Like their counterparts in Dallas, the Bills would win only one more playoff game with these players, a 37-22 victory in the 1995 playoffs against Miami.

 

The point is, most teams, even the truly great ones, can't maintain an elite level of play for more than about 5 or 6 years. Age and injuries, division foes and competing conference teams all start to catch up. It doesn't take much at all for a 'great' team to decend back into the pack of 'good' teams. The Pats have now lost three straight to the Colts, struggled a bit in an improving division (including a 21-0 beating from the last place Dolphins), and now have to contend with rising teams such as the Chargers and Bengals in the overall AFC picture, along with the usual standbys such as Denver, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Patriots may be able to overcome all of that to win another championship, but then again, maybe not. Its going to get more difficult with every season that passes.

[Long Island Phil]

While I don't think the Patriots are going to fall off a cliff anytime in the next couple of years, championship level teams tend to be a more fragile thing than you realize.

 

Look to the last great team in the NFL as an example: the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sure they felt much the same as you do after their Super Bowl victory in 1995. They'd won 60 regular season games in 5 years and 3 Super Bowls. Aikman and Irvin were both 29 and coming off great seasons. Emmitt Smith had an MVP type year and he was just 26. With these HOF players still in the prime, Cowboy fans reasoned, there was absolutely no reason to believe that more championships wouldn't follow.

 

Over the next 5 years, the Dallas Cowboys won just more one playoff game with Aikman and Smith (Irvin retired due to injury in 1999), a 40-15 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in 1996. They lost three more by a combined score of 73-34.

 

Another similar example? None other than the Buffalo Bills. They finished the 1993 season 12-4, with their 4th straight Super Bowl appearance. Kelly, Reed and Thomas were a little older compared to the three in Dallas, but they were still highly productive and had won 70 regular season games in 6 years. Like their counterparts in Dallas, the Bills would win only one more playoff game with these players, a 37-22 victory in the 1995 playoffs against Miami.

 

The point is, most teams, even the truly great ones, can't maintain an elite level of play for more than about 5 or 6 years. Age and injuries, division foes and competing conference teams all start to catch up. It doesn't take much at all for a 'great' team to decend back into the pack of 'good' teams. The Pats have now lost three straight to the Colts, struggled a bit in an improving division (including a 21-0 beating from the last place Dolphins), and now have to contend with rising teams such as the Chargers and Bengals in the overall AFC picture, along with the usual standbys such as Denver, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Patriots may be able to overcome all of that to win another championship, but then again, maybe not. Its going to get more difficult with every season that passes.

 

Thank you for stating so clearly why the Pats will probably be falling back into the pack in the next year or so.That being said, I really feel strongly that the Bills, by virtue of Losmans emergence, the development of a good left tackle, and all-pro DE, a genuine deep threat in Evans, a major league HC in Jauron,a VERY strong finish to their season etc etc etc AND........

For the NYJ's a nice draft with Mangold and Fergie and Johnson. A top notch OC in B.Schott really helps. He has shown himself to very inovative even handcuffed with a dead arm QB. Mangini looks like the real deal.

 

Why shouldnt these two teams battle for the AFC east?!?!? Stop being so pessimistic.

Things are on the upswing for both teams. .......FINALLY

[daquixers_is_back]

No, but that's not what I said, was it? I was responding to the original poster's assertion that the Jets and the Bills were the only AFC East teams to improve "this past season," meaning the transition from '05 to '06.

 

The 2004 Pats were a flat out dominating team - the best of the dynasty era. They were a missing Dillon in Pittsburgh and a late-game brain fart in Miami away from 19-0.

 

The '05 team was lucky to make the playoffs. The D was decimated by injury and almost as bad as '02, and there simply wasn't a running game to speak of. I'd put this team slightly above the '02 team.

 

The '06 team, to me, was almost as good as the '03 team, but not quite.

 

Where'd ya come up with that innovate theory?

 

'01-'04: Three Super Bowls

'05-'06: No Super Bowls

 

No sh-- they're struggling more since '04 - "more" is a relative term, and most things pale in comparison to dominance.

By "contend for a title," I mean that prior to the season in question, the vast majority of reasonable people think that that a team has a very good chance to go to the Super Bowl. The Colts, to me, have been contending for titles since '03, even though they've only gotten as far as the AFCC game in two of those four years.

 

OK, so the Dolphins, Broncos, and Bengals were "contending" this past season. None of them made the post-season. Well hey, atleast your theory makes sense.

 

I will always have a big deal of respect for the Patriots as long as Brady and Belichick are roaming the sidelines and on the field, but the Patriots have won a large majority of games in the past 6 years decided by 7 points or less, and sooner or later they will begin to lose a few of those games. The Patriots use to OWN the Colts. Why have they lost to them 3 straight times now? and by an average of 10 pts/game? When was the last time the Patriots lost to the Jets before this season? I believe it was 2002.

[NavyBillsFan]

Your kidding right?

 

You must be talking on Tecmo Bowl....

[truth on hold]

While I don't think the Patriots are going to fall off a cliff anytime in the next couple of years, championship level teams tend to be a more fragile thing than you realize.

 

Look to the last great team in the NFL as an example: the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sure they felt much the same as you do after their Super Bowl victory in 1995. They'd won 60 regular season games in 5 years and 3 Super Bowls. Aikman and Irvin were both 29 and coming off great seasons. Emmitt Smith had an MVP type year and he was just 26. With these HOF players still in the prime, Cowboy fans reasoned, there was absolutely no reason to believe that more championships wouldn't follow.

 

Over the next 5 years, the Dallas Cowboys won just more one playoff game with Aikman and Smith (Irvin retired due to injury in 1999), a 40-15 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in 1996. They lost three more by a combined score of 73-34.

 

Another similar example? None other than the Buffalo Bills. They finished the 1993 season 12-4, with their 4th straight Super Bowl appearance. Kelly, Reed and Thomas were a little older compared to the three in Dallas, but they were still highly productive and had won 70 regular season games in 6 years. Like their counterparts in Dallas, the Bills would win only one more playoff game with these players, a 37-22 victory in the 1995 playoffs against Miami.

 

The point is, most teams, even the truly great ones, can't maintain an elite level of play for more than about 5 or 6 years. Age and injuries, division foes and competing conference teams all start to catch up. It doesn't take much at all for a 'great' team to decend back into the pack of 'good' teams. The Pats have now lost three straight to the Colts, struggled a bit in an improving division (including a 21-0 beating from the last place Dolphins), and now have to contend with rising teams such as the Chargers and Bengals in the overall AFC picture, along with the usual standbys such as Denver, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Patriots may be able to overcome all of that to win another championship, but then again, maybe not. Its going to get more difficult with every season that passes.

great post. like i said before, at their tops and even a few years past their prime most could not imagine landry, noll and shula not winning forever. yet each one was pushed out the door after consecutive losing seasons. that's why you don't see a lot of meat on the arguments defending the pats: the facts show them on the decline and the only way not to see this is to buy into some kind of vague "mystique" thing with statements like "as long as they have brady/bellicheck etc." a lot of "driving in the rear view mirror" going on with the pats defenders.

[Bill from NYC]

Thank you for stating so clearly why the Pats will probably be falling back into the pack in the next year or so.That being said, I really feel strongly that the Bills, by virtue of Losmans emergence, the development of a good left tackle, and all-pro DE, a genuine deep threat in Evans, a major league HC in Jauron,a VERY strong finish to their season etc etc etc AND........

For the NYJ's a nice draft with Mangold and Fergie and Johnson. A top notch OC in B.Schott really helps. He has shown himself to very inovative even handcuffed with a dead arm QB. Mangini looks like the real deal.

 

Why shouldnt these two teams battle for the AFC east?!?!? Stop being so pessimistic.

Things are on the upswing for both teams. .......FINALLY

 

Hi Phil! Great site, no?

 

I think that you could very possibly be right, especially if the pats are unlucky (for once) and are plagued at least a little bit by injuries. Because of the cap, no team really has a ton of depth.

 

In addition, Lord Bruschi might be finished, and Mike Vrabel will be 32 at the srtart of the season. I am not making the case that he is a great player, but the s.o.b. is clutch. How long can he continue to make plays, and miss no games due to injury? I also think that Dillon either has, or will hit the wall.

 

The 07 offseason will matter a ton to both the jests and the Bills imo. If Levy can see fit to address something besides the secondary, watch out. The problem with the jets (again, imo) is at qb. I don't think that they have any reasonable chance to win with Pennington.

 

We shall see.

[Dawgg]

The Pats have 2 first round picks. A number of mocks even have Patrick Willis falling into their laps at #22! So I think they will be fine at LB, replacing aging vets with young talent.

 

As for Corey Dillon, that's why they drafted Maroney last season.

 

And unlike the Bills, they didn't foolishly promise their starting #1 corner to NOT use the franchise tag, thereby virtually guaranteeting that Samuel returns for another season.

 

 

In addition, Lord Bruschi might be finished, and Mike Vrabel will be 32 at the srtart of the season. I am not making the case that he is a great player, but the s.o.b. is clutch. How long can he continue to make plays, and miss no games due to injury? I also think that Dillon either has, or will hit the wall.

[Prognastic]

Hi Phil! Great site, no?

 

I think that you could very possibly be right, especially if the pats are unlucky (for once) and are plagued at least a little bit by injuries. Because of the cap, no team really has a ton of depth.

 

In addition, Lord Bruschi might be finished, and Mike Vrabel will be 32 at the srtart of the season. I am not making the case that he is a great player, but the s.o.b. is clutch. How long can he continue to make plays, and miss no games due to injury? I also think that Dillon either has, or will hit the wall.

 

The 07 offseason will matter a ton to both the jests and the Bills imo. If Levy can see fit to address something besides the secondary, watch out. The problem with the jets (again, imo) is at qb. I don't think that they have any reasonable chance to win with Pennington.

 

We shall see.

 

 

Um, you did realize that Rashad Baker was SIXTH on the depth chart at safety and basically played the entire AFC Championship game?

[OCinBuffalo]

OK, so the Dolphins, Broncos, and Bengals were "contending" this past season. None of them made the post-season. Well hey, atleast your theory makes sense.

 

I will always have a big deal of respect for the Patriots as long as Brady and Belichick are roaming the sidelines and on the field, but the Patriots have won a large majority of games in the past 6 years decided by 7 points or less, and sooner or later they will begin to lose a few of those games. The Patriots use to OWN the Colts. Why have they lost to them 3 straight times now? and by an average of 10 pts/game? When was the last time the Patriots lost to the Jets before this season? I believe it was 2002.

Don't bother...this guy won't ever recognize your facts - that the Patriots of the last 6 years usually slide by on a late-game FG/TD - MOST of the time. I hardly see that as "dominant" performance. Dominant would be what the Bears did to them in the SB. 46-10 - that's dominant. More importantly later in the 1st half and most of the Colts game, their old D got dominated by the Colts'(of all people) running game. I could hardly believe the announcers actually recognized it, and even more shocking is that they actually said it - The Patriots are Tired.

 

But it doesn't really matter what we see - this guy's perception is what it is. I mean, come on, he's a Pat's fan. It's not as if we were expecting him to be objective. So again, don't bother trying to get him to take off his "Pats aren't in trouble" glasses, it ain't gonna happen. Just remember: "The Patriots have won 3 out of the last 6 Super Bowls"(formerly 3 out of the last 5). I wonder if after next year it will be "3 out of the last 7". Ten years from now: 3 out of the last 16, etc.