ganesh Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 First of all a 10 yard gain would have been a touchdown. But I did watch the replay and I stand corrected -- it likely would not have been a touch down but he DEFINITELY would have reached the first down marker giving them 1st and goal at the 3. As for my hero taking forever to "realize," I attribute that more to the long snap count and bear in mind that it is difficult to impossible to alter the snap count when you're playing on the road in a playoff game. Not for a quarterback like Dan Marino.....Marino had a similar situation against the Jets in the mid-90s and instead of spiking the ball down, he threw to his completely wide open WR because the CB was not there to cover him....
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 In the 6 years he's been there they've had the #1 defense once, the #2 twice along with a #6 in points allowed. Maybe I missed something but perhaps you can help me compile a list of 4 or 5 other NFL teams showing that type of defensive dominance over the same 6 years? I only come up with 2 guesses without looking it up. i'm talking about yards, not points. Points doesn't correct for defensive scores by the opposing team, special teams scores (or lack thereof), long fields, etc. -- all of which are a function of the NE offense (except for ST). Yards is the one stat that factors in every defensive play and omits every play made by the offense. Is it perfect? No. But it's a more reliable indicator than points. Both qbs are obviously good, but your distaste for Brady -- who wasn't that great against either Indy or SD, admittedly -- seems to blind you to this. Brady's qb rating in the playoffs (12-2 record) -- 86.25. Manning's qb rating in the playoffs (7-6 record) -- 83.2. Carry on in your Al Davis-like crusade on behalf of the bomb, though ...
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 Carry on in your Al Davis-like crusade on behalf of the bomb, though ... Picking on us because of our age isn't very nice. Maybe I missed your response- just how far did you suggest Brady would have gotten the Colts this year? i'm talking about yards, not points. Points doesn't correct for defensive scores by the opposing team, special teams scores (or lack thereof), long fields, etc. -- all of which are a function of the NE offense (except for ST). Yards is the one stat that factors in every defensive play and omits every play made by the offense. Is it perfect? No. But it's a more reliable indicator than points. Even in my old age, I'm humored by those who for some reason can't simply acknowledge that the Pat's Defense has been their foundation over the past 6 seasons. It's a team that has won with one of the league's best defenses, defenses who have played big for them against some of the best league offenses in big games. Maybe if the defense is acknowledged for being as good as they clearly have been, many of the little Brady Bubbles many cling to lose a bit of luster as far as what it is that really makes the Pats tick.
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Picking on us because of our age isn't very nice. Maybe I missed your response- just how far did you suggest Brady would have gotten the Colts this year? Honestly, I don't think he played particularly well this postseason except for the Jets game. But then again I don't think Manning has played all that well either all things considered. He's been OK and probably a tad better than Brady, but not by a whole lot. This is just one postseason, however.
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Picking on us because of our age isn't very nice. Maybe I missed your response- just how far did you suggest Brady would have gotten the Colts this year? Even in my old age, I'm humored by those who for some reason can't simply acknowledge that the Pat's Defense has been their foundation over the past 6 seasons. It's a team that has won with one of the league's best defenses, defenses who have played big for them against some of the best league offenses in big games. Maybe if the defense is acknowledged for being as good as they clearly have been, many of the little Brady Bubbles many cling to lose a bit of luster as far as what it is that really makes the Pats tick. My recollection is that the Pats defense has been the beneficiary of NE's almost preternatural ability to score on opening drives and quickly put up 10-0 leads. A team that goes up by two scores early on wins something like 90% of the time.
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 Honestly, I don't think he played particularly well this postseason except for the Jets game. But then again I don't think Manning has played all that well either all things considered. He's been OK and probably a tad better than Brady, but not by a whole lot. This is just one postseason, however. I thought Manning played a pretty spectacular second half this past weekend. He sat on the edge of the pressure he saw with regularity and made plays happen with his feet (in the pocket) as well as his arm. Brady looked a bit cooked to me. If you think I have distaste for Brady, you're not getting the essence of my posts. I have substantial disdain for the media and the lemming fans who follow their overglorification of the guy's role on the team he plays on. He's a very good, maybe great, System QB who is playing in a system that does not suffer from his bad downfield skills, easily fried arm or his lack of mobility. Instead, his good instincts with his feet in the pocket, good release and willingness to put in the study time have made him a great fit on a team that is so much bigger than their QB that you could plug 4 or 5 other guys into the NE system over the same period with similar results- IMO of course. On the other hand, on Manning's team the "influence on a win" looks something like this: 1 Manning's Performance 2 OLines Peformance 3 WR Performance 4 Defensive Performance 5 Game Plan 6-etc. In New England the "influence on a win" hierarchy looks more like this: 1 Belichick's Defensive strategy 2 Defensive Performance 3 RBs Performance 4 Belichick's Offensive strategy 5 Brady's Performance 6-etc. So I have no problem with Brady's skillset, I see all the things he does well. I also see the things he gets credited with that he has virtually nothing to do with. For instance, what QB on any NFL roster would have failed to execute the Belichick offensive strategy of simply using draw play after draw play on third downs throughout the first half at Indy? What in the world did Brady have to do with that or it's success? Nothing, of course. But hey, don't put me in the position of exposing how good I think Belichick is ;-) My recollection is that the Pats defense has been the beneficiary of NE's almost preternatural ability to score on opening drives and quickly put up 10-0 leads. . I'll give you that it's possible Belichick doesn't give a thorough study of the opposing defense and give his OC an opening drive strategy, but I find that highly, highly improbable. He's a micromanager and this thumbprints in my opinion are all over the opening offensive drive.
Lurker Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 If the Patriot WR corps had put up some of the gutless stinkers that the Colt WR corps has over the last several postseasons, you can bet your bippy that Brady would not have 3 rings. True. But just think of what Brady's stats would look like....
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 True. But just think of what Brady's stats would look like.... Logically why would Brady's 38% downfield completion rate benefit at all by receivers who outrun his arm strength? It's more logical that Brady would become far worse with receivers who simply get outside his range before he has a chance to throw the ball. In your scenario, logic says Brady would likely fall to a 25 or 30% completion rate if he had the Indy WRs. In fact, Brady's completion rate over 30 yards this past season WAS only 25% so therein you have an answer that requires no speculation.
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 I thought Manning played a pretty spectacular second half this past weekend. He sat on the edge of the pressure he saw with regularity and made plays happen with his feet (in the pocket) as well as his arm. Brady looked a bit cooked to me. If you think I have distaste for Brady, you're not getting the essence of my posts. I have substantial disdain for the media and the lemming fans who follow their overglorification of the guy's role on the team he plays on. He's a very good, maybe great, System QB who is playing in a system that does not suffer from his bad downfield skills, easily fried arm or his lack of mobility. Instead, his good instincts with his feet in the pocket, good release and willingness to put in the study time have made him a great fit on a team that is so much bigger than their QB that you could plug 4 or 5 other guys into the NE system over the same period with similar results- IMO of course. On the other hand, on Manning's team the "influence on a win" looks something like this: 1 Manning's Performance 2 OLines Peformance 3 WR Performance 4 Defensive Performance 5 Game Plan 6-etc. In New England the "influence on a win" hierarchy looks more like this: 1 Belichick's Defensive strategy 2 Defensive Performance 3 RBs Performance 4 Belichick's Offensive strategy 5 Brady's Performance 6-etc. So I have no problem with Brady's skillset, I see all the things he does well. I also see the things he gets credited with that he has virtually nothing to do with. For instance, what QB on any NFL roster would have failed to execute the Belichick offensive strategy of simply using draw play after draw play on third downs throughout the first half at Indy? What in the world did Brady have to do with that or it's success? Nothing, of course. But hey, don't put me in the position of exposing how good I think Belichick is ;-) I'll give you that it's possible Belichick doesn't give a thorough study of the opposing defense and give his OC an opening drive strategy, but I find that highly, highly improbable. He's a micromanager and this thumbprints in my opinion are all over the opening offensive drive. A couple of things -- Brady was drafted in the sixth round for a reason. You're right -- he doesn't have the strongest of arms, and that partly accounts for his late draft slot (as you and I both know, scouts are pretty exhaustive about this stuff). He certainly makes the most of his ability. Manning was drafted #1 overall for a reason as well -- physically, he can make all throws, and he can do it very well. Secondly, as for who's calling the plays, a very close friend of mine in Buffalo who is a Pats' fanatic (don't ask) and as knowledgeable and clearheaded as anyone here on this board (Badolbilz level) swears that as of this past year, Brady is effectively the Pats offensive coordinator. It wouldn't surprise me - he's obviously bright and intense.
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 Secondly, as for who's calling the plays, a very close friend of mine in Buffalo who is a Pats' fanatic (don't ask) and as knowledgeable and clearheaded as anyone here on this board (Badolbilz level) swears that as of this past year, Brady is effectively the Pats offensive coordinator. It wouldn't surprise me - he's obviously bright and intense. I think we're in complete agreement that Brady fell into a best case scenario for him in NE. I doubt he'd even be in the NFL if he'd been on a Denny Green bench, and on most other teams it would have been tough for him to get his break. Belichick not only gave him the shot but has gotten more out of him than I believe any other contemporary NFL coach would. By putting him in a System wherein the QB was less responsible for offensive success than in other schemes, Brady has thrived. As to his OC influence, I'd still love if the opportunity for the Emperor's New Clothes to be exposed presented itself by having Brady and all of his OC skills ship off to a big free agent contract in, let's say, Detroit.
Prognastic Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 Wow, you are either seriously mentally ill or intellectually dishonest.
Dawgg Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 He'd do better than Peyton Gump, that's for sure! As to his OC influence, I'd still love if the opportunity for the Emperor's New Clothes to be exposed presented itself by having Brady and all of his OC skills ship off to a big free agent contract in, let's say, Detroit.
AKC Posted January 26, 2007 Author Posted January 26, 2007 He'd do better than Peyton Gump, that's for sure! Wow, you are either seriously mentally ill or intellectually dishonest. Apparently it's my turn to chaperone the Short Bus riders- So you Brain Surgeons have come up with the theory that it's the Wide Receivers who make the QB better, and that a QB like Brady who has has suffered with "only" one Pro Bowler and "only" one Super Bowl MVP Wideout is at a disadvantage- explaining his pathetic downfield Passer Rating of 67 this year and career-long awful downfield numbers? We'll wait for your list of the great Wide Receivers Jeff Garcia was throwing to this season while whipping Brady in downfield passing by 40 points? How about Damon Huard by 50 points? And I can't wait to hear the names of the Pro Bowl quality WRs that Mark Brunnell was using to beat Brady in downfield passing. Truth is, not one of the above QBs had a Wide Receiver among the top 30. Not one of them has a Wide Reciever going to the Pro Bowl. Yet they whipped on Brady's downfield passing numbers. And surely, since it has already been pointed out in this string that JP Losman was more than a dozen points better downfield than Brady in 2006, we won't hear either of you suggesting there be any additions to the Bill's Wide Receiver Depth Chart this off-season! Why don't you leave those conical hats with me, they aren't allowed on your ride home.
Hollywood Donahoe Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 What have you to say about 2004, AKC, when Brady was a top-4 deep passer in the NFL? Brady has shown throughout his career that he can win in whatever type of offense he's asked to run, whether it be spread, WCO, dink-and-dunk, vertical, run-heavy, etc. What more would you ask of him?
Dawgg Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 It's nice to see that you're passionate about this issue, but I don't see this as a zero-sum game. Yes, Brady benefits from a great coaching staff and a stout defense -- which is why you (incorrectly, IMO) label him a "System QB" who would stink up the joint on another team. Yes, Manning benefits from continuity on the offensive side of the ball and top-notch skill players at virtually every offensive skill position. I find it interesting that you are willing to dismiss Brady's success as a QB and attribute it largely to external factors that a dime-a-dozen "System QB" could succeed in; yet on the flip side, you find it difficult to acknowledge that Manning also has his share of factors working in his favor, among which include the continuity in coaching, talent around him, and playing indoors. My conclusion: both are great quarterbacks that know their individual capabilities so well, that they have found a way to maximize them to the nth degree. Both command the respect of their teammmates and opponents alike. But if you ask defensive players around the league (and I have), they will tell you that nobody can attack a defense's weaknesses quite like Brady.... and nobody can "find" a way to win quite like Brady. With that being said, Manning put on a hell of a show on Sunday and deserved to win. But if you're trying to say that Brady is a dime-a-dozen System QB who has won 3 Super Bowl rings and has a 12-2 record in the playoffs, you're going to hear an argument from me. Apparently it's my turn to chaperone the Short Bus riders- So you Brain Surgeons have come up with the theory that it's the Wide Receivers who make the QB better, and that a QB like Brady who has has suffered with "only" one Pro Bowler and "only" one Super Bowl MVP Wideout is at a disadvantage- explaining his pathetic downfield Passer Rating of 67 this year and career-long awful downfield numbers?
Wraith Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 What have you to say about 2004, AKC, when Brady was a top-4 deep passer in the NFL? Brady has shown throughout his career that he can win in whatever type of offense he's asked to run, whether it be spread, WCO, dink-and-dunk, vertical, run-heavy, etc. What more would you ask of him? I would think twice before making any claims based on a study that only considers completion percentage on balls thrown 40+ yards from two years ago. The fact of the matter is that although 2004 was Brady's best year throwing downfield, his downfield performance degraded in both 2005 and now 2006. In addition, it's impossible to claim where Brady stood relative to other QBs in 2004 based on that study, as it totally omitts passes thrown between 10 and 40 yards, where about 95% of all "downfield" throws occur.
AKC Posted January 26, 2007 Author Posted January 26, 2007 2004 was Brady's best year throwing downfield In '04 his rating from 21-30 yards was 44, and from the 31-40 was only 55. No one bothered to cover his wideouts past 30 yards becasue of his horrendous performance downfield up to then, and as a result he got lucky on a few downfield chucks. We can see the league adjusted since 2004 by leaving the occasional Safety downfield, completely frustrating one of the worst downfield passers in the NFL today on the deep ball. Brady has shown throughout his career that he can win in whatever type of offense he's asked to run, Speaking of Short Bus Riders! Jump onboard Trollboy! Guess there's not much going on over at the Patsy Message Board? What more would you ask of him? At a minimum he'd have to achieve being an "average" downfield passer, a primary skill all the Great QBs in league history have achieved. Of course, to do that he'll have to SERIOUSLY make up for completing 38% of his downfield passers and coughing up a bottom-feeding rating in the 60s on downfield passes when the great passers of his era are over 110 :-)
Prognastic Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 So is AKC saying that he'd rather have Losman than Brady? How many QBs besides Manning would he prefer on his team over Brady? Does AKC dispute the fact that Brady is most likely a first ballot Hall of Famer? AKC likes quoting selective statistics doesnt he?
AKC Posted January 26, 2007 Author Posted January 26, 2007 So is AKC saying that he'd rather have Losman than Brady?How many QBs besides Manning would he prefer on his team over Brady? Does AKC dispute the fact that Brady is most likely a first ballot Hall of Famer? AKC likes quoting selective statistics doesnt he? If you don't like stats, try the facts- Tom Brady is among the worst Quarterbacks in the NFL when he is asked to throw the ball downfield. This terrible problem of his has gone on his whole career. You see, I can give you information to better your understanding of the game of football- but I have no ability to refresh the brain cells you lost in that terrible childhood accident. Such a shame.
Prognastic Posted January 26, 2007 Posted January 26, 2007 I can give you information to better your understaniding of the game of football- but I have no ability to refresh the brain cells you lost in the accident. How about you just answer the questions Brainiac.
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