AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 Players like Brady or Montana have a style that limits the margin for error I'd substitute "system" versus "style", but you can still yell Bingo. The only reason you don't see everybody go to it is the do everything factor. I feel compelled to turn you in the direction of the 800 pound Gorilla here- it's a lot easier to run a System Offense when you have a top of the league defense giving the offense all kinds of extra and better opportunites each game that other offenses simply don't get. They might have had the same run since 2001 with Mouse Davis and the run and shoot.
cåblelady Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Not to drift too much from the topic of "Best in the Game", but JP's QB Rating downfield was 80. Cool. JP is better than Brady.
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 Cool. JP is better than Brady. And of course for you ladies, when JP pinches your butt it ain't for the benefit of the cameras ;-)
Dawgg Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Super Bowl MVP represents the performance over ONE game. Branch is a good, not great receiver by any means. Harrison and Wayne, on the other hand, are in the top 10 at their position. The fact of the matter is Brady has done a lot with considerablly less than Manning, particularly in the department of skill players on the offesnvie side of the ball. Yes, he has a great defensive coaching staff to bail him out... that is certainly a factor. But you can't ignore the fact that were it not for Reche Caldwell's drop of an easy TD pass in the 4th quarter, Peyton Gump is most likely sitting at home watching the Super Bowl --- yet again. But I definitely see where you are going with your analysis -- if I was going with someone for that "ultimate QB competition" where QBs throw at mock targets and such, I would go with Manning. If I wanted a QB for a big game, Brady is the guy hands down. To come close to beating the Colts, a much superior team on the road, with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gafney??? Are you kididng me??? That Brady dude is a baller How far would the 2006 Indy team have gone this year with Brady and his 38% downfield completion rate Quarterbacking them? Keep in mind that he's lifetime only a 40% passer from 10 yards and out, even when he was working with Pro Bowl and Super Bowl MVP wide receivers over those years.
ofiba Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 But you can't ignore the fact that were it not for Reche Caldwell's drop of an easy TD pass in the 4th quarter, Peyton Gump is most likely sitting at home watching the Super Bowl --- yet again. Please watch that replay again. If Caldwell catches that pass, it's a 10 yard gain tops, unless he breaks about 3 tackles. Your hero Brady took about 10 minutes to realize no one was covering him, and then even after he did, threw a duck that fluttered out to Caldwell.
Mikie2times Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 I'd substitute "system" versus "style", but you can still yell Bingo.I feel compelled to turn you in the direction of the 800 pound Gorilla here- it's a lot easier to run a System Offense when you have a top of the league defense giving the offense all kinds of extra and better opportunites each game that other offenses simply don't get. They might have had the same run since 2001 with Mouse Davis and the run and shoot. I can list dozens of guys who survived in this league late, or slipped threw the cracks because they're system QB's. Obviously what Peyton can do is very rare. As you pointed out in your first post when you have a guy as good as Peyton the entire offense is built around his talent. That's a big part of the reason why we never see these super QB's win the big game. Too much is on one guy, and with an entire offensive predicated one guy a bad playoff game is all it takes. The system QB does usually receive the benefit of more balance, but the style offensive play flat out makes a difference. Turnovers are the single most important aspect in the NFL. Threw out history in the playoffs you'll find system QB's not committing turnovers, while non systems QB's do. You'll find examples of great gunslingers not winning the Super Bowl for a decade. All of these guys aren't getting the benefit of a dominating defense, or outstanding run game. Manning might be more unique then Brady, but I'll take a great system QB over a great non system QB any day of the week. One gives you rings, and the other gives you fantasy points.
Simon Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Please watch that replay again. If Caldwell catches that pass, it's a 10 yard gain tops, unless he breaks about 3 tackles. Your hero Brady took about 10 minutes to realize no one was covering him, and then even after he did, threw a duck that fluttered out to Caldwell. Ayup....
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 How far would the 2006 Indy team have gone this year with Brady and his 38% downfield completion rate Quarterbacking them? Keep in mind that he's lifetime only a 40% passer from 10 yards and out, even when he was working with Pro Bowl and Super Bowl MVP wide receivers over those years. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
dave mcbride Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 I'd substitute "system" versus "style", but you can still yell Bingo.I feel compelled to turn you in the direction of the 800 pound Gorilla here- it's a lot easier to run a System Offense when you have a top of the league defense giving the offense all kinds of extra and better opportunites each game that other offenses simply don't get. They might have had the same run since 2001 with Mouse Davis and the run and shoot. if you're going to go down that treacherous path, stay away from defensive statistics, because the pats haven't been awesome statistically for many a year: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nweindex.htm In his six years as starter, the Pats' defense falls at the 16.67 slot out of 32 teams. Hardly dominant ...
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 In his six years as starter, the Pats' defense falls at the 16.67 slot out of 32 teams. Hardly dominant ... In the 6 years he's been there they've had the #1 defense once, the #2 twice along with a #6 in points allowed. Maybe I missed something but perhaps you can help me compile a list of 4 or 5 other NFL teams showing that type of defensive dominance over the same 6 years? I only come up with 2 guesses without looking it up.
daquixers_is_back Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Dawgg I responded to you in page 2 ... I dont believe you replied back yet.
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 While statistics are sometimes misleading, considered in full context they can be enlightening in demonstrating the dynamics playing out “between the lines” of any football game. A game of football can be watched many ways, but sometimes even the experienced watcher can miss critical elements within the game that are crucial to a more complete understanding. It is here, in the nuances of the game, that statistics can fill in enough pieces of the picture to help answer some of the most common questions about the game of football as played in the NFL such as “Who’s the best Quarterback?”. In order to establish this, it’s important to understand the stark differences between offensive schemes. Even casual fans understand that there’s a big difference between playing QB in an Option Offense and a traditional NFL Downfield Passing Offense. What most fans overlook is that the differences between a System Offense like the West Coast and a traditional Downfield Passing Offense differ to probably a greater degree than even the Option Offense does to Traditional Downfield Passing Offenses. I’ll demonstrate that here. The West Coast Offense was designed specifically to- at the earliest moment- get the ball out of the QB’s hands and into the hands of a playmaker. At its roots the West Coast System seeks to limit the QB’s role to that of a “point guard” in distributing the ball to the “shooters” on the team. By contrast, the traditonal Downfield Passing Quarterback is required to be both “point guard” and “shooter”. Like the college Option Offense, a staple of the West Coast is having much of the ball exchange taking place behind or within a few yards of the LOS. In fact, much like the Option Quarterback, the West Coast System rewards QBs who have better skills in that short range of play from the backfield out to about 10 yards from the Line Of Scrimmage. The traditional Downfield Passing Quarterback has no such luxury- he is asked to perform almost the opposite job from the West Coast or Option type Quarterback- he is tasked with effectively throwing the ball downfield beyond 10 yards, with the consequences of his personal failure being the failure of his offense. Unlike his counterpart in a West Coast System, where the Quarterback is looking to immediately put the ball in the hands of a playmaker, the Downfield Pro Passing Quarterback is the team’s primary playmaker. This fundamental difference separates completely the requirements to play in a traditional Downfield Pro Passing Offense versus a West Coast System: The West Coast QB's primary task is to distribute the ball to his offense’s playmakers. The Downfield Passing Quarterback is the Primary Playmaker within his offense. We can statistically demonstrate this difference by looking at the highest regarded QBs in the game today. Peyton Manning is a traditional QB throwing the ball downfield effectively year after year. Peyton threw the lowest number of behind the Line of Scrimmage passes per game among all NFL starters in 2006. Manning has a QB rating on downfield passes of 112 and a completion rate on those downfield balls beyond 10 yards of 57%. Manning makes the throws, and makes them effectively, that are required for a traditional Downfield Passing Quarterback to lead a Downfield Offense as its primary playmaker. His effectiveness is the single most important key to the success of his offense. If he fails throwing the ball downfield with effectiveness, his offense will also fail. On the other side of the offensive style spectrum we have the System QB. Looking at the top-rated System Quarterback in the game today we can study the stark difference between a traditional NFL QB like Manning and a System QB. Tom Brady once again had a terrible year throwing the ball downfield, as he has throughout his career. In fact, in 2006 of all his passes thrown over 10 yards Brady completed only 38%. Over 30 yards Brady hit on only 25% of his throws. On these balls downfield, where a good downfield passer like Drew Brees held a passer rating of 137, the system QB in New England was only able to manage a QB rating of 66. Brady this year was among the worst starters in the NFL in passing beyond 10 yards. 2006 Season Quarterback Stats: Manning Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 57% Passer Rating 112 Brady Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 38%Passer Rating 66 Brees Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 58% Passer Rating 137 Don’t assume that these awful downfield passing numbers of Brady are exclusive to the 2006 campaign; they actually parallel his career numbers which are a QB Rating of 67 and completion percentage barely over 40% when throwing 10 yards or more downfield. Brady plays in a System that doesn’t require that he throw downfield well, and luckily for his team the System hasn’t penalized him or his offense for his bottom of the league performances throwing downfield. Surely the biggest advantage to not having to be effective downfield is that Brady doesn’t have to put himself into the highest pressure situations that Downfield Passing QB’s face throughout a game. The fact is the West Coast QB has far less pressure and far greater opportunities to simply dump the ball on the sidelines, a staple of Brady’s game. Tom Brady’s numbers prove that you can complete less than 40% of your throws downfield in the West Coast and it will have virtually no apparent negative impact on the effectiveness of the System Offense. On the other hand, if Manning or Brees complete only 38% of their downfield passes, the Saints and Colts miss the playoffs this year- and badly. Unlike their counterpart in New England, Manning and Brees are of course the primary playmakers in their offenses. Manning and Brees simply don’t have the luxury of throwing every second or third long ball to the sidelines to avoid pressure or sacks. The design of their Downfield Passing offenses places the largest burden of offensive success squarely on the Quarterback’s shoulders. In the West Coast, the percentage of burden on the Quarterback for offensive success is dramatically reduced. It’s clear from the irrefutable record of Brady’s horrible record career-long downfield passing during a span that his team’s offense has played effectively: the West Coast QB has a mere fraction of the pressure and responsibility burden that Downfield Passing Offenses places upon theirs. It’s mandatory to factor this in when considering any title for “Best in the League”. We would be insulting Quarterbacks who have made their NFL living the “hard way”- standing in pockets facing the rush and making deep throws with their team’s success completely on the line- if we simply ignore all the clear proof that shows that System Quarterbacks don’t measure up to the Downfield Passing Quarterbacks when it comes to the tasks they perform, their level of responsibility within their offense or the pressure they face as a result. Manning may not be the best QB in the NFL today, but he’s still far, far better than any of the System Quarterbacks who have ever played in the NFL up to this point in history. Interesting.
AKC Posted January 25, 2007 Author Posted January 25, 2007 Ayup.... Perhaps it's simply my mean spirit versus my keen observation skills, but on Brady's final 5 pass attempts going back to his next to last drive, I thought the smell of pasta cooking was awfully strong?
Lurker Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 How far would the 2006 Indy team have gone this year with Brady and his 38% downfield completion rate Quarterbacking them? Keep in mind that he's lifetime only a 40% passer from 10 yards and out, even when he was working with Pro Bowl and Super Bowl MVP wide receivers over those years. How far would NE have gone with Harrison, Wayne and any of Manning's receiving corp? This thread seems to be a lot of mental masterbation....
Simon Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Perhaps it's simply my mean spirit versus my keen observation skills, but on Brady's final 5 pass attempts going back to his next to last drive, I thought the smell of pasta cooking was awfully strong? Well it sure as sugar wasn't the starch on his passes; ceptin' for the aforementioned near-hash out that he ripped over Gaffney's head with 4 minutes left. During the Pats playoff run this postseason Brady was displaying some awful problems with accuracy and vs San Diego ran probably the worst playoff game of his career. But the thing that stood out to me the most was what struck me as an uncharacteristic reluctance to accept contact. He's usually been willing to stand in and deliver at the last moment but this year marked the first time that I remember seeing him duck out of several throws during big games. Might be an appropriate time to quote one of may favorite Parcells lines: "Every guy gets to a point in his career where he just doesn't want to go out there and hit 'em any more. And there's no shame in that, it happens to the best of 'em." Brady's staring down 30 and has taken a tremendous number of snaps over the past 6-7 years; you can't help but wonder if he's getting to the point where he's starting to consider his own mortality and vulnerability. Another point I think that's worth adressing is the mentions I keep seeing about how much more Peyton has been supported by his surrounding cast throughout his career. A couple related things that ought to be considered: 1) Peyton has also borne the responsibility for calling his own offense most of his career while Brady has not only had Belichik to learn from but also cut his teeth under CHarlie Weiss, one of the best O-coordinators I've ever seen. 2) That all-world WR corps that often absorbs much of Peyton's credit has been the primary culprit in at least 2 and probably 3 of the Colt's playoff exits. 3) To quote Manning, the Colts OLine has at times "had some problems in protection". From last years atrocious outing in which they distributed welcome mats to Dick LeBeau's front7 right up to last Sunday when during the crunchiest part of the game they simply could not keep Manning clean. Brady gets a lot of credit (deservedly so) for his ability to find space within the pocket and buy the extra second, but last weekend was not the first time we've seen Manning spending an inordinate amount of physical and mental energy finding working room. How far would NE have gone with Harrison, Wayne and any of Manning's receiving corp? If the Patriot WR corps had put up some of the gutless stinkers that the Colt WR corps has over the last several postseasons, you can bet your bippy that Brady would not have 3 rings.
Dawgg Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 First of all a 10 yard gain would have been a touchdown. But I did watch the replay and I stand corrected -- it likely would not have been a touch down but he DEFINITELY would have reached the first down marker giving them 1st and goal at the 3. As for my hero taking forever to "realize," I attribute that more to the long snap count and bear in mind that it is difficult to impossible to alter the snap count when you're playing on the road in a playoff game. Please watch that replay again. If Caldwell catches that pass, it's a 10 yard gain tops, unless he breaks about 3 tackles. Your hero Brady took about 10 minutes to realize no one was covering him, and then even after he did, threw a duck that fluttered out to Caldwell.
Dawgg Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 That was all fixed after Polian cried like a sissy to the league office after the Colts lost to the Pats (yet again) If the Patriot WR corps had put up some of the gutless stinkers that the Colt WR corps has over the last several postseasons, you can bet your bippy that Brady would not have 3 rings.
daquixers_is_back Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Another point I think that's worth adressing is the mentions I keep seeing about how much more Peyton has been supported by his surrounding cast throughout his career. A couple related things that ought to be considered:1) Peyton has also borne the responsibility for calling his own offense most of his career while Brady has not only had Belichik to learn from but also cut his teeth under CHarlie Weiss, one of the best O-coordinators I've ever seen. 2) That all-world WR corps that often absorbs much of Peyton's credit has been the primary culprit in at least 2 and probably 3 of the Colt's playoff exits. 3) To quote Manning, the Colts OLine has at times "had some problems in protection". From last years atrocious outing in which they distributed welcome mats to Dick LeBeau's front7 right up to last Sunday when during the crunchiest part of the game they simply could not keep Manning clean. Brady gets a lot of credit (deservedly so) for his ability to find space within the pocket and buy the extra second, but last weekend was not the first time we've seen Manning spending an inordinate amount of physical and mental energy finding working room. If the Patriot WR corps had put up some of the gutless stinkers that the Colt WR corps has over the last several postseasons, you can bet your bippy that Brady would not have 3 rings. Great post. That was all fixed after Polian cried like a sissy to the league office after the Colts lost to the Pats (yet again) Is the same year that the Colts receivers were being mugged downfield and the refs refused to call any penalties? And you still have not responded to my page 2 response to you.
syhuang Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 First of all a 10 yard gain would have been a touchdown. No, it would not. It's 1st-and-15 at Colts 18 yard line. A 10 yard gain would become 2nd-and-5 at 8 yard line. You seems confused it to the third down play in the same series when looked at play-by-play. ---------------------------------- 1-15-IND18 (8:38) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to R.Caldwell [G.Brackett]. 2-15-IND18 (8:34) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to H.Evans to IND 10 for 8 yards (R.Morris, C.June). 3-7-IND10 (7:50) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to R.Caldwell. 4-7-IND10 (7:45) S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Paxton, Holder-M.Cassel. ---------------------------------- Comeback kid finally falls short The lead might have been bigger had Reche Caldwell not dropped his second pass of the game while wide open. With first-and-15 at the Colts 18, he was left uncovered and Brady quickly threw to him along the right sideline. But Caldwell took his eyes off the ball and the Patriots settled for Stephen Gostkowski's 28-yard field goal and a 31-28 lead.
ganesh Posted January 25, 2007 Posted January 25, 2007 Obviously what Peyton can do is very rare. As you pointed out in your first post when you have a guy as good as Peyton the entire offense is built around his talent. That's a big part of the reason why we never see these super QB's win the big game. Too much is on one guy, and with an entire offensive predicated one guy a bad playoff game is all it takes. Exactly the reason why the Denver Broncos lost their 1st 3 super bowls and won their last two...In the two they won, they took the game out of Elways hands and got their running game in top gear. Exactly the reason why we could have won super bowl XXV, if we could have run Thurman Thomas more and took more time off the clock and kept that FG try shorter..
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