Astrobot's Draft Muncher

[Astrobot]

Number of Sites Picking That Player In Parentheses:

 

(9) Levi Brown- OT (FootballMinds, DraftConnection, thefootballexpert, draftking, junkyardjake, nflanswers, draftseason.com/outhouse, djnflmockdraft, ffcheatsheets)

 

(5) Patrick Willis - ILB (NFLAnswers, walterfootball, eastcoastsportsnews, draftclass, draftace)

 

(4) Amobi Okoye-DT (GBN, InsideTheEagles, FantasyFootballJungle, drufantasyfootball)

 

(4) Leon Hall -CB (FantasyFootballExtreme, draftstudio, northwestscouting, nfldaily)

 

(4) Gaines Adams, DE (warroomdraftguide, huddlegeeks, fantasytailgate, mockdraftcity)

 

(3) Darrelle Revis -CB (NFLDraftCountdown, draftdaddy, fftoolbox/thompson)

 

(2) Brian Brohm - QB (footballsfuture, fftoolbox/dimon)

 

(1) Quinn Pitcock-DT (condraft)

 

(1) Jamaal Anderson DE (nfl-draft-site.blogspot)

 

(1) Troy Smith - QB (NFCNorthdraftboard,

 

(1) Sam Baker - OT/OG (saturdays2sundays)

 

(1) Dwayne Jarrett -WR (draftseason.com/Lupagus)

 

(1) Lawrence Timmons LB (heardsfootballreport)

 

------------------------------------------------

--These are all of the draft sites I munched. I only list those who have updated in January.

 

--All of the sites are .com if you'd like to see who's off the board right before and after the Bills' pick.

 

Your Draft Droid

[Lori]

Think I'd be happy with any of the top 3, but I'm still not convinced Levi Brown will be a top-12 pick when all is said and done. Just my biased opinion.

 

And the sites that have us taking Brian Brohm may want to rethink that selection...

[obie_wan]

Think I'd be happy with any of the top 3, but I'm still not convinced Levi Brown will be a top-12 pick when all is said and done. Just my biased opinion.

 

And the sites that have us taking Brian Brohm may want to rethink that selection...

 

especially since he is staying in school

[BuffaloBilliever]

Revis, Willis, or Adams I'd be fine with.

 

To take Brohm or Smith would be beyond stupid.

[Lori]

especially since he is staying in school

Well, yeah, that was kinda my point.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Revis, Willis, or Adams I'd be fine with.

 

To take Brohm or Smith would be beyond stupid.

Anyone taking Smith in the 1st round would be stupid.

[The Jokeman]

especially since he is staying in school

He can stay in school and yet was invited to the SENIOR BOWL? I don't think so. Seriously I doubt Levi be a top 12 pick as well as currently grades out to be a RT and the last RT (aside from Mike Williams) that I remember in recent years being selected that high was Willie Anderson. Levi might be good but don't think he's that good. He'll likely go in the 1st Round but think more likely he'll be picked in 20 something area of the draft.

[DrDawkinstein]

He can stay in school and yet was invited to the SENIOR BOWL? I don't think so. Seriously I doubt Levi be a top 12 pick as well as currently grades out to be a RT and the last RT (aside from Mike Williams) that I remember in recent years being selected that high was Willie Anderson. Levi might be good but don't think he's that good. He'll likely go in the 1st Round but think more likely he'll be picked in 20 something area of the draft.

 

 

are you questioning if he's staying in school? or if he played in the Senior bowl? cause hes DEFINITELY returning to louisville next year.

[The Jokeman]

are you questioning if he's staying in school? or if he played in the Senior bowl? cause hes DEFINITELY returning to louisville next year.

Louisville? Levi Brown played at PSU.

 

EDIT: In rereading the thread I now see the Brohm note. I thought the note was about Levi Brown returning to school.

[DrDawkinstein]

LOL! no sweat bud!! :D

[willis da illest]

Brohm isn't even coming out

[Astrobot]

To be sure, anyone can have a draft site, and update it regularly (which raises your search engine rank). What I find most interesting is that 9 sites picked Levi Brown, not that someone picked Brohm. Part of this can be climbing on someone else's wagon; others look at our NFL offensive rankings despite a good O-Line performance after the Bye week. The O-Line has had lots to disrupt their chemistry over the last 6 years, so I don't see the coming of Levi any time soon.

[eball]

Who is the retard having us (or ANYone) taking Troy Smith in Round 1???

[JoeF]

To be sure, anyone can have a draft site, and update it regularly (which raises your search engine rank). What I find most interesting is that 9 sites picked Levi Brown, not that someone picked Brohm. Part of this can be climbing on someone else's wagon; others look at our NFL offensive rankings despite a good O-Line performance after the Bye week. The O-Line has had lots to disrupt their chemistry over the last 6 years, so I don't see the coming of Levi any time soon.

 

Over the years you have done a great job providing some insights Astro..as you study these draft sites--do any of them stand out from the perspective of not necessarily where guys are going to be picked--but with how they rate players--and their hits on "successes versus busts" analysis. The average fan is never going to know about a players' work ethic and intelligence--two key factors in turning a college player into a good pro..even in the top 1A college conferences--a kid with great ability can shine without being a great worker or very smart..do any of the prognosticators seem to have an edge?

 

Thanks---

[Nanker]

Agreed there JoeF. Mouse likes to keep his club tight. It's difficult to break into. Remember his first year here he kept Pucillo the starter ahead of Tucker - only because that's where he ended up at the end of the previous year. Something tells me he's not lobbying very hard to bging in a Round 1/2 selection to crack his club's roster.

 

Also - a hat-tip to Astrobot! Good job. You recall from last year which of these peerless pigskin prognostication sites had us picking Whitner?

 

If Willis is there at 12 I think I'd be happy with that pick. We should have at least one Willis on the team that's a gamer. This would improve our odds.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Geez Louise.... how many mock draft sites ARE there?

 

I had no idea there were that many guys still living in their Mom's basements....

[Astrobot]

Here's the only one that picked Whitner that I could find:

PFW's Nolan Nawrocki

Nawrocki succeeded Joel Buschbaum when he passed away.

 

I'm tracking 76 mocks right now. There are hundreds.

[Bills Fan888]

Here's the only one that picked Whitner that I could find:

PFW's Nolan Nawrocki

Nawrocki succeeded Joel Buschbaum when he passed away.

 

I'm tracking 76 mocks right now. There are hundreds.

They only got one of the players in the top 10 wrong.

[The Jokeman]

They only got one of the players in the top 10 wrong.

Actually he posted another mock after that one and was even scarier good. I mean he almost hit on the first 14 picks as he hit on 12 and only reversed picks 5 and 6. Infact he did quite well overall too as after pick 14 he hit quite a few more players and was good at focusing on some of the positions teams took as well.

 

Link to the mock

[Pyrite Gal]

I find draft sites to be interesting because they sometimes provide great information about players if they have devoted the time to doing good profiles, and also because almost all of them are so spectacularly wrong about who gets chosen where that it gets fairly hilarious.

 

Basically almost all draft sites are wrong because they have their sense of the correct order of talent of the college players, but the actual draft order is not determined simply by how good the players are but by how good the teams picking think they are.

 

A correct draft order would have to be based on not an assessment of the quality of play of each player but in the 32 assessments of how good those players are, and more importantly how good they are for that team.

 

The fact is that a player may in fact be the most talented player in the world hypothetically, but if he happens to play a position already occupied by a player in his prime playing well for the team picking, it probably is insane for that team to choose this best player in the draft. However, it is probably not a good idea for a team just behind this team to trade that pick as clearly trading down for extra value would allow the first team to pick a player who can actually play for them AND also get additional resources.

 

In essence, it only takes one or two team to choose players which disagree with the consensus and the entire draft is thrown off.

 

Thus, this is my sense of how each of these drafts is probably wrong in their thinking about the Bills:

 

(9) Levi Brown- OT (FootballMinds, DraftConnection, thefootballexpert, draftking, junkyardjake, nflanswers, draftseason.com/outhouse, djnflmockdraft, ffcheatsheets)

 

These folks share Marv's thought that winning the game starts with running and stopping the run. In addition, one only needs to take a cursory look at the stats to see the Bills do not run effectively. However, thinking that the Bills will draft Brown, certainly any tackle and acually probably any OL player in the 1st ignores the other side of Marv's dictum of showing an ability to stop the run.

 

The freshest things in the Bills braintrust's mind will be folks like Travis Henry shredding the DL and D for rushing yards but also the JP led O putting up a few points in their final games. As the OL certainly sucked this season, it also clearly improved after the shuffle at the break. The Bills will likely rely on JMac continuing to improve the play of the young recently extended Paters and the hopeful Pennington and if there is any immediate improvement in talent it more likely come from getting a respected FA G rather than spending draft resources. Many of the vocal OL draft advocates on TSW may hate this but I am not arguing over the theory of the best way to build an OL but instead what I think the Bills will do in real life and this may be another year without a first day OL pick unless there is a specific talent that JMac and them want to argue for as Marv has stated a belief in getting the Best Player Available in the draft.

 

(5) Patrick Willis - ILB (NFLAnswers, walterfootball, eastcoastsportsnews, draftclass, draftace)

 

This pick is a favorite of folks who feel that it is certain we will let Fletch walk (probably will though this is not certain as of yet) and hope (think this an LB who got the Butkus award as best college LB would likely hold the job for years, This sounds to me like very solid thinking for the 2008 or at latest 2009 season, but it strikes me as really doubtful the Bills will go this way and have a rookie fill in for Fletch as like it or not, with the MLB being called upon to read and diagnose 3rd down plays as runs or passes and if it is a throw cover folks like a safety in the deep zone, that a rookie who does not have the years a vet would have of seeing NFL plays call and develop will get undressed a lot as he learns to become a vet.

 

The Bills reliance on the MLB in coverage is seen in F-B not only leading the NFL in INTs by an LB, but actually leading the team in INTs as he got more than CNs like NC and McGee who are asked to do press coverage in the short zone in our Cover 2 and then release receivers going downfield to the safties and MLB.

 

I think it is far more likely that to replace Fletch we move Crowell back to the MLB spot where he started and he takes over the playcalling duties from Fletch which no rookie be it Willis or whomever would be able to do for a while until they master NFL Ds. We then would be looking to acquire an OLN and an FA like Briggs makes more sense or if we draft a rookie LB it more likely woul be OLBs Poluszny or Timmons unless Willis is good enough to start at OLB for us.

 

Willis is a talented player who seems like a bad fit for us if Marv or Ralph have an interest in winning now as our D would likely take a step back for a year while Willis playing a pivotal role learns how to become a vet.

 

(4) Amobi Okoye-DT (GBN, InsideTheEagles, FantasyFootballJungle, drufantasyfootball)

 

 

The main strike against Okoye is that for the second year in a row we would be spending the 1st round pick on a D player and Fairchild an the O will argue it is their turn among their reasons for going O with the choice. That being said, if someone make a strong case for any individual he will be picked no matter whose "turn" it is.

 

Some view Okoye's youth as a downside as they predict he will not grow into being a pro starter for a couple of years. However, given that even our starting DTs will be in heavy rotation I do not think the braintrust will feel bad about getting a few years to train Okpye as long as they feel his upside will produce some immediate benefit.

 

My guess is he is actually the most likely choice.

 

(4) Leon Hall -CB (FantasyFootballExtreme, draftstudio, northwestscouting, nfldaily)

 

Picking him is premised on the concept that they will let NC walk (again the likely scenario but who knows who is not inside really though we fans have tons of fact-free opinions on this. Yet even if NC goes picking him is dependent on whether the Bills think Youbouty can step up.

 

All in all I doubt this will be our choice.

 

(4) Gaines Adams, DE (warroomdraftguide, huddlegeeks, fantasytailgate, mockdraftcity)

 

 

A lot depends on what happens with Ke;say, but even if Kelsay starts Denney/Schobel are the likely DE starters abd a DE would need a lot advocates of his talent for us to pick him.

 

(3) Darrelle Revis -CB (NFLDraftCountdown, draftdaddy, fftoolbox/thompson)

 

 

See Hall notes above

 

(2) Brian Brohm - QB (footballsfuture, fftoolbox/dimon)

 

QB seems like one ofthe more senseless choices the Bills could make and is probably the best sign that the draft predictor knows little about this team.

 

(1) Quinn Pitcock-DT (condraft)

 

Who? See Amoye comments above

 

(1) Jamaal Anderson DE (nfl-draft-site.blogspot)

 

Who? See Adams comments above

 

(1) Troy Smith - QB (NFCNorthdraftboard,

 

Yeah right. See Brohm comments above

 

(1) Sam Baker - OT/OG (saturdays2sundays)

 

OG could be but Baker would need strong advocates and an FA OD kooks like a better choice.

 

(1) Dwayne Jarrett -WR (draftseason.com/Lupagus)

 

 

IMHO a big part of the problem with the WRs was not simply the talent, but as the Bills reined in the offense to give JP a chance to learn, Fairchild never did a solid job involving the RBs as a good checkdown for the QB and also did not employ the incredible speed we had in Evans, PP and Parrish well at all. PP did an OK at best job as a possession receiver but this is not the highest and best use of his skills (even though he once again showed he will make the tough catch and try to get a yard or two afterwards. Jarrett strikes me as a waste as we are likely getting in a taller more talented #2 to use improperly just as we never used PP as well as we could this year,

 

 

(1) Lawrence Timmons LB (heardsfootballreport)

 

Possible and see Willis write up above.

 

Overall, all of these are silly as predictive tools at this point since as Marv views character as so important really all thought based on college stats or performance in some showcase game are still heavily dependent upon his interviews of these rookies.