Contract Year

[Kelly the Dog]

Can anyone explain to me, reasonably, how you can possibly believe that any NFL player tries harder or plays better in their contract year?

 

Or provide any proof of this?

 

Doesn't it AUTOMATICALLY and by definition prove that they have been dogging it every other year? That 70% or so of all years are Loaf Years? That they could have tried harder before and played better, perhaps significantly better before but they didn't because it wasn't their contract year? That every player's sole motivation and incentive is money? And yeah they will give 80% effort or play 92% as well as they could, but when there are more millions at stake they turn it up a notch? Doesn't it imply that Ladanian Tomlinson could have had 35 or 40 TDs if he wanted if this were his contract year? How could Tom Brady have won those first two Super Bowls when they weren't his contract year?

 

And please, please, please tell me why 2005, which was money-hungry Buffalo hating playmaker Nate Clements' first "contract year" was his worst year of all playing for the Bills? How is that even possible? That was his contract year! He's supposed to try a lot harder because he obviously wasn't trying very hard in his non contract years.

[DrDawkinstein]

no, not at all.

 

if you are making $50,000 a year, and you know you are up for complete review at the end of the year and if you perform VERY WELL, you could instantly go up to $200,000. you would work your butt off too.

 

same thing goes for making $500,000/year and being able to go up to $2mil/year with a signing bonus of $5mil just for showing up.

 

what part of this simple economic model dont you understand?

 

and clements may have been trying to do too much. thats very possible for football players to do.

[Kelly the Dog]

no, not at all.

 

if you are making $50,000 a year, and you know you are up for complete review at the end of the year and if you perform VERY WELL, you could instantly go up to $200,000. you would work your butt off too.

 

same thing goes for making $500,000/year and being able to go up to $2mil/year with a signing bonus of $5mil just for showing up.

 

what part of this simple economic model dont you understand?

 

and clements may have been trying to do too much. thats very possible for football players to do.

Ummmm, that these guys didn't work their butt off as hard they could to get where they are. That the vast majority of players making 50K, of which there are few, had to work as hard as he possibly could to get into the NFL and make a roster spot or he wouldn't be there. That there is zero proof for, and decades of proof against, All Pros getting named to the All Pro team in the non-contract years vs. the contract years. That if you looked at the career of any random player, the chances that his best year was his contract year is LESS likely than more likely.

[plenzmd1]

Can anyone explain to me, reasonably, how you can possibly believe that any NFL player tries harder or plays better in their contract year?

 

Or provide any proof of this?

 

Doesn't it AUTOMATICALLY and by definition prove that they have been dogging it every other year? That 70% or so of all years are Loaf Years? That they could have tried harder before and played better, perhaps significantly better before but they didn't because it wasn't their contract year? That every player's sole motivation and incentive is money? And yeah they will give 80% effort or play 92% as well as they could, but when there are more millions at stake they turn it up a notch? Doesn't it imply that Ladanian Tomlinson could have had 35 or 40 TDs if he wanted if this were his contract year? How could Tom Brady have won those first two Super Bowls when they weren't his contract year?

 

And please, please, please tell me why 2005, which was money-hungry Buffalo hating playmaker Nate Clements' first "contract year" was his worst year of all playing for the Bills? How is that even possible? That was his contract year! He's supposed to try a lot harder because he obviously wasn't trying very hard in his non contract years.

I liken it more to the playoffs VS the regular season. Now, haven't you heard just about every player say their intensity, preparation, etc goes up in the playoffs? I do not think that is is intentional, but to me their is no denying it happens. However, that does not mean they are giving less than full effort in the regular season, for the most part.

 

Same as contract years. I do not think guys loaf intentionally the non-contract years, but human nature dictates a differant level of intensity when there is more on the line.

 

In every case however, I think there are exceptions.

[DrDawkinstein]

Ummmm, that these guys didn't work their butt off as hard they could to get where they are. That there is zero proof for, and decades of proof against, All Pros getting named to the All Pro team in the non-contract years vs. the contract years. That if you looked at the career of any random player, the chances that his best year was his contract year is LESS likely than more likely.

 

 

who siad that they havent been working their butt off already? you can always step it up a notch. maybe not for LT, but thats why he's the best player in the NFL. i never said it actually works, but that the reasoning behind it.

 

and you can not confidently say that "if you looked at the career of any random player, the chances that his best year was his contract year is LESS likely than more likely." you(and i) have no way of actually charting that out (at least, i dont have the time). so i could say the inverse is true too.

[BuffaloBilliever]

I agree with both. It should be a lightbulb when you suddenly see a guy skyrocket in his contract year (although, with Willis this year it could be a great thing for us) and he's dogged it beforehand. Yeah, he'll try a lot harder for better money.

[Kelly the Dog]

I liken it more to the playoffs VS the regular season. Now, haven't you heard just about every player say their intensity, preparation, etc goes up in the playoffs? I do not think that is is intentional, but to me their is no denying it happens. However, that does not mean they are giving less than full effort in the regular season, for the most part.

 

Same as contract years. I do not think guys loaf intentionally the non-contract years, but human nature dictates a differant level of intensity when there is more on the line.

 

In every case however, I think there are exceptions.

So these players put out playoff intensity year round because it is their contract year? I see less than zero proof of this, too.

[DrDawkinstein]

So these players put out playoff intensity year round because it is their contract year? I see less than zero proof of this, too.

 

 

maybe they dont. but you have to be able to understand where the supposed extra motivation comes from, right?

[Kelly the Dog]

who siad that they havent been working their butt off already? you can always step it up a notch. maybe not for LT, but thats why he's the best player in the NFL. i never said it actually works, but that the reasoning behind it.

 

and you can not confidently say that "if you looked at the career of any random player, the chances that his best year was his contract year is LESS likely than more likely." you(and i) have no way of actually charting that out (at least, i dont have the time). so i could say the inverse is true too.

And you'd be wrong. Look at the top ten at every statistical category and tell me who was in their contract year. Then look at this year's free agent list and tell me how many of them had their best years in their last 3 or 4 or 5. It's pretty simple.

[DrDawkinstein]

And you'd be wrong. Look at the top ten at every statistical category and tell me who was in their contract year. Then look at this year's free agent list and tell me how many of them had their best years in their last 3 or 4 or 5. It's pretty simple.

 

 

you do it for me and print the lists. i didnt make the thread.

 

and actually what youd want to do is look at the career stats for the constant leaders, and see if they got any better their contract year.

maybe all of this years free agents arent that good to begin with. but they may be beter than usual for who they are.

 

i mean it would be unfair to say "shipp was in his contract year this season, and he's no where the league leader in yardage". shipp's is not even close to the player LT is. but maybe ha had a good year for being Shipp.

 

also factoring in is how the team LETS the player play. remember Mike Holmgrem kept Alexander off the field so he couldnt become the rushing leader going ito his contract year, as a negotiating tool.

[plenzmd1]

So these players put out playoff intensity year round because it is their contract year? I see less than zero proof of this, too.

kelly are you saying that players all players provide maximum effort every game? Not what they percieve to be maximum effort, but their true maximum effort?

[Kelly the Dog]

maybe they dont. but you have to be able to understand where the supposed extra motivation comes from, right?

I don't think this extra motivation exists. That's my point. I think it is all fan and media made and doesn't exist except for in the smallest of numbers. I think a certain portion of players are able or willing to put forth maximum effort almost all the time. A larger portion put out that effort most of the time. A lot some of the time. But it has zero to do with contract year. And of all my years of watching football, especially playing close attention to the recent years when money has become a bigger and bigger factor, I hear this phrase contract year and I see zero proof of it. Nate Clements was NOT trying too hard in 2005. To me he tried harder and played better every other year. Aaron Schobel played as hard as he could every year, and had his best year AFTER his contract was renegotiated. I am hard pressed to think of one Bills player who looked like he was really trying harder and played better just before he left in free agency. I can't think of one. Sure, a couple may have had their best years but that is just as much a coincidence as anything. It's not as though NO ONE is going to have their best year just based on the laws of probability. My point is that I think it has a microscopic effect on the players and how hard they try and how well they do and I see zero proof of anything other than that.

[Kelly the Dog]

kelly are you saying that players all players provide maximum effort every game? Not what they percieve to be maximum effort, but their true maximum effort?

No, not on every play. Just on an average level. They try as much as they can motivate their minds and bodies to work. Some are a lot better at that than others. Some need coaches and other external factors to motivate them. But the best players and the hardest workers do that with no regard to their contract years, and I, again, see no proof of it.

[DrDawkinstein]

dude, i GUARANTEE you, if you asked any player going into their contract year if they feel motivated/pressure because of it. they will say yes. they may pussyfoot around it by saying, theyre always motivated blahblahblah. thats just media speak. anyone who doest feel pressure and motivation to perform during their contract year, has something wrong with them.

 

they are playing for a paycheck. how could they not?

 

dont people work harder when they know they are up for a raise? or at least TRY to work harder?

 

isnt that the WHOLE POINT of giving raises?

[plenzmd1]

No, not on every play. Just on an average level. They try as much as they can motivate their minds and bodies to work. .

 

Thats all i'm saying. I think on an unconscios level, the intensity etc goes up in the playoffs. That is just human nature. I think the same holds true in contract years.

 

However, I will agree with you that this effect is much less in the NFL than any of the other three major sports, obviosly due to the absence of guaranteed contracts.

[erynthered]

Maybe they dont take as many plays off during their contract year. But, how would you know?

[Stussy109]

QUESTION, WOULD YOU WORK HARDER THIS YEAR AT YOUR JOB, IF YOU KNEW IT MEANT COMPETITOR COMPANIES MAY BE WILLING TO PAY YOU AN EXTRA 2-5 MILLION NEXT YEAR IF YOU PERFORM WELL?

 

HUMANS ARE NATURALLY LAZY

[IDBillzFan]

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

There are too many examples of players who dog it to simply state that all players always play lights out. When you see Randy Moss walking off the field before time is expired and even stating he takes plays off, or T.O. suggesting that if you don't feed him early than he won't be much use later, then you know that there's probably more where they come from with the only difference being that they open their mouths.

 

What makes Robert Royal fail to keep his feet inbounds in the back of the endzone? ("I lost concentration.") What makes Rex Grossman suddenly throw like Stevie Wonder? ("I wasn't practicing 100%.")

 

I doubt you hear or see that when they're in a contract year.

[JimBob2232]

Lets put this to the test:

 

5 Random Players (Post 1993, Free Agency Era)

 

Issac Bruce

Steve McNair

Ty Law

Ray Lewis

Corey Dillon

 

Okay, someone smarter than me run the numbers...lets see how 5 random players turn out.

[Kelly the Dog]

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

There are too many examples of players who dog it to simply state that all players always play lights out. When you see Randy Moss walking off the field before time is expired and even stating he takes plays off, or T.O. suggesting that if you don't feed him early than he won't be much use later, then you know that there's probably more where they come from with the only difference being that they open their mouths.

 

What makes Robert Royal fail to keep his feet inbounds in the back of the endzone? ("I lost concentration.") What makes Rex Grossman suddenly throw like Stevie Wonder? ("I wasn't practicing 100%.")

 

I doubt you hear or see that when they're in a contract year.

What I am saying I guess is there is no history on this. I look for it and I don't see it. From virtually anyone. I hear it all the time from fans and sometimes the media but I never ever see it. And everyone of the responses so far has been, "it's human nature", "of course it happens" but no one gave any example. Granted, a guy like, say, Steve Hutchinson really made out by having a great year leading up to his watershed free agency but to me Steve Hutchinson worked his ass off always, played well right away, and got better and better every year. There simply doesn't seem to be any proof of it at all, and for something so apparently universally accepted as fact, you'd think you'd be able to find some.

 

To me, it seems like there is no correlation at all, either in effort or performance, other than what the percentages are in every other year or player. Meaning a certain percentage of good, great, or best years are universal across the board versus in your contract or non-contract years.