Pats will win, and it won't be close

[tennesseeboy]

I wish that there were a way that both teams could lose. In my heart I am rooting for Indianapolis because I hate the Pats...but in my head I think it will probably be the Pats. Which is why I am going to find something else to do when that game is on.

[Gordio]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but here's the problem for the Pats - run defense. Last week LT ran all over them. At first this seems like a no-schitt statement but hold on a sec. I have had a chance to watch the game again. I counted 7 times where LT ran for 5+ yards on first down. On 6 out of those seven the Pats d wasn't close to tackling him until he was 3+ yards downfield. What does this mean? The Chargers O line was knocking the snot out of the Pats D. In some cases, I saw a guard pulling across the line, run upfield, and find no one to block because the center and opposite guard/tackle(even the WR) had blown everybody up already. Anybody else notice we didn't' hear Tedi Bruschi's name once? (Well, except for that one time - I suppose that is some sort of league rule - talking about his helmet or something.)

 

Now, for the life of me, I cannot understand why Marty and the gang weren't calling running plays AGAIN on 2nd and 5,4,3 - in some cases 2??? when they had just given a clinic in run blocking the last play. I mean if it's working - and they can't stop it - why change? Seriously, there were some 1st and 10s where everybody in the stadium knew it was gonna be a run play and they still got 6-7 yards. In fact, I only saw 2-3 RUNNING plays where LT was the main reason they went well or where LT had to make something out of nothing. Certainly the passing plays to LT were all him - but they are designed that way.

 

Disclaimer: Except for the running touchdown in the Red zone going left, stopping, and going right - that was ridiculous - LT is the man.

 

Now, I am not saying that Addai/Rhodes = LT. I am saying that if you can give your RB 3+ yards on a play consistently(like the old Broncos O line) it starts not to matter who is carrying the ball(like the string of Broncos running backs who all "automagically" became "star" players). There is no way that the Chargers O Line is better than the Colts. If anything Colts>Chargers. BTW, Manning>Rivers so play action should be deadly.

 

Also, I do not believe that Dungy and his staff are as silly as Marty and his. In fact, I think that this is the key to beating the Pats. You beat them at their own game. They used to be able to demoralize a team by being sucessful calling 5-6 runs in a row. (Of course Brady is the reason why this works - it's his expert handing off skills - much better than Montana's ) But anyway, I think the Charges exposed the Pats D as old and slow last week - they just didn't press home their advantage

 

No way Dungy makes the same mistake - he's too smart and even if he wasn't he just got an object lesson last week from Marty in what not to do.

 

 

This is a great post. I almost felt like shotzy was going to show the world that he wasnt going to be conservative in that game. That is why he let rivers fling it 33 times. Circumstances dictated that LT should of touched the ball 40 + times.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

I'm not going to be an obnoxious Pats fan on another team's forum. The Colts could win and I wouldn't be too shocked. Unlike SD, they've been in the playoffs before and aren't new to expectations.

 

As for the last two regular season games they've played, those are pretty meaningless. The Pats were too hurt by injuries last year to beat good teams and they were a much inferior team earloier this year. The passing game was still being sorted out. Brady and Caldwell were not yet on the same page and Gaffney wasn't around yet. In spite of all of that NE turned the ball over 5 times or so and were still in the game, only losing by 7. Manning kept making plays rolling out of the pocket which he cannot be expected to make every time (he even completed one pass while falling down).

 

As for the playoff games from 2+ years ago they don't mean much. They're good to measure how Manning handles playoff pressure and a BB defense though.

 

I think the #2 defense in the league is being largely ignored. Holding SD (the #1 offense in football) to 21 when their average drive started around midfield was a terrific performance. I think the Indy defense is being largely overrated. Defense is definitely in NE's favor.

 

Peyton is the wild card. If he plays a great game he's hard to beat, and NE would need to control the clock and score on almost every possession (which they've done to Indy in the past, though I don't know if this year's offense is up to it). He has traditionally struggled both against the 3-4 and in the playoffs. If he struggles I don't see how Indy can win this game.

 

it's hard not to count the pats in the mix based on past experience. it could easily go the way you suggest. a not-totally-objective observation is that much of what you attribute to the pats d holding the Chargers to 21 was more a result of lack-of-execution by the Chargers than execution by the Pats. Of course, you could infer that the multitude of dropped passes by the bolts, the mindless penalties and questionable decision-making by certain Chargers during the game were a result of the defensive show put on by the Pats and their coaches. I want the Colts to win to the extent that i care, and honestly I'm sick to death of the Pats winning, but this is not meant to be a negative "you got so lucky" post. much luck is made by the team on the field. the heads-up stripping of the ball to turn the game around by tb certainly has elements of luck (decision by the back to interecept v. knock down, the fact that he didn't have a clean pick and was boblling the ball on the run) combined with some damn good defense by an offensive player.

 

to be fair, the Pats executed when they needed to and won the game. that's the mark of a good team, and will keep the Pats in the hunt as long as they can do so. on any given sunday, any team have a great defensive game. the probability that the pats will do so is substantially higher than most due to their coaching, execution, etc. if they bring it sunday, and get on a roll against peyton and the boys, they'll win.

 

it seems to me that they've lost a step or two on defense, but they never roll over.

 

could be a good game.

[Matt in KC]

I've never had less of an opinion of a big game's outcome. I really could see either team winning by 20 (up by two scores, returning a turnover for a TD).

 

If I had to guess (for psychic pride only, not betting) I'd say the Colts win by 11 or 15 after the Pats cut the lead to 8 in the 4th quarter then the Colts drive for their own score.

[Willis990]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but here's the problem for the Pats - run defense. Last week LT ran all over them. At first this seems like a no-schitt statement but hold on a sec. I have had a chance to watch the game again. I counted 7 times where LT ran for 5+ yards on first down. On 6 out of those seven the Pats d wasn't close to tackling him until he was 3+ yards downfield. What does this mean? The Chargers O line was knocking the snot out of the Pats D. In some cases, I saw a guard pulling across the line, run upfield, and find no one to block because the center and opposite guard/tackle(even the WR) had blown everybody up already. Anybody else notice we didn't' hear Tedi Bruschi's name once? (Well, except for that one time - I suppose that is some sort of league rule - talking about his helmet or something.)

 

Now, for the life of me, I cannot understand why Marty and the gang weren't calling running plays AGAIN on 2nd and 5,4,3 - in some cases 2??? when they had just given a clinic in run blocking the last play. I mean if it's working - and they can't stop it - why change? Seriously, there were some 1st and 10s where everybody in the stadium knew it was gonna be a run play and they still got 6-7 yards. In fact, I only saw 2-3 RUNNING plays where LT was the main reason they went well or where LT had to make something out of nothing. Certainly the passing plays to LT were all him - but they are designed that way.

 

Disclaimer: Except for the running touchdown in the Red zone going left, stopping, and going right - that was ridiculous - LT is the man.

 

Now, I am not saying that Addai/Rhodes = LT. I am saying that if you can give your RB 3+ yards on a play consistently(like the old Broncos O line) it starts not to matter who is carrying the ball(like the string of Broncos running backs who all "automagically" became "star" players). There is no way that the Chargers O Line is better than the Colts. If anything Colts>Chargers. BTW, Manning>Rivers so play action should be deadly.

 

Also, I do not believe that Dungy and his staff are as silly as Marty and his. In fact, I think that this is the key to beating the Pats. You beat them at their own game. They used to be able to demoralize a team by being sucessful calling 5-6 runs in a row. (Of course Brady is the reason why this works - it's his expert handing off skills - much better than Montana's ) But anyway, I think the Charges exposed the Pats D as old and slow last week - they just didn't press home their advantage

 

No way Dungy makes the same mistake - he's too smart and even if he wasn't he just got an object lesson last week from Marty in what not to do.

 

 

Dungy is too smart, what a farce. This guy is the new version of Marty. Look at his Playoff record w/ Tampa and Indy.. I bet Belichick loves the prospect of coaching against Dungy just like he loves coaching against Cowher, Herm and the like. On the other hand if this a Shanahan team that is a huge challenge because he is a great coach.

[Fan in San Diego]

Gotta disagree with you on this one. The Colts 'D' has found the on switch and is playing their best all year. Colts at home, playoff experience, Peyton Manning is as good as it gets at the Qb position. Colts win this by at least 3 points.

[Whites Bay]

One of two outcomes:

 

If the Pats have a close lead with (e.g.) 7:00 to go in the 4th quarter, watch for the Colts' collective lips to turn blue as the Pats squeeze the Colts' collective throats and grind out one of those patented oxygen-depriving, game-killing 6:00 minute drives. Game over, and you know it. We've all seen it one too many times with the Bills. "The clock.............ticking......" (spoken by a Pats fan sitting in front of me at the Ralph at the end of the 2002 home game - bastard).

 

Alternatively, the Colts come in fearless, play their game, and simply whip the living snot out of the Pats. whose age finally shows. We all know THAT is coming as well, despite great coaching and personnel selection. Time eventually taps every team on the shoulder, gently undoes the belt buckle, and leeringly whispers "Who's yer daddy?" in the ear. Right, Buffalo? Right, San Francisco? Right, Dallas? The Pats are no exception, and it would be interesting to see if the team has the character to play its best football in the face of defeat, or whether they react like a car careening onto a sidewalk crowded with pedestrians......

 

In other words, the Colts won't win a close one. They'll either beat the Pats like a rented mule, or lose yet another heartbreaker.

[Dwight Drane]

I like New England because Harrison is hurt and Belichek knows it. They can play soft zone and double Wayne all day. Then they can blitz off Harrisons side, and concentrate on stopping the run up the middle and to the left.

 

I really like Peyton and he deserves a championship shot, but it is going to be rough without Harrison at even 80%.

 

On a side note...Chicago is going to explode on New Orleans. Defense and Special teams. It's going to be the Fridge Bowl again with NE and CHI.

[Dr. K]

One of two outcomes:

 

If the Pats have a close lead with (e.g.) 7:00 to go in the 4th quarter, watch for the Colts' collective lips to turn blue as the Pats squeeze the Colts' collective throats and grind out one of those patented oxygen-depriving, game-killing 6:00 minute drives. Game over, and you know it. We've all seen it one too many times with the Bills. "The clock.............ticking......" (spoken by a Pats fan sitting in front of me at the Ralph at the end of the 2002 home game - bastard).

 

Alternatively, the Colts come in fearless, play their game, and simply whip the living snot out of the Pats. whose age finally shows. We all know THAT is coming as well, despite great coaching and personnel selection. Time eventually taps every team on the shoulder, gently undoes the belt buckle, and leeringly whispers "Who's yer daddy?" in the ear. Right, Buffalo? Right, San Francisco? Right, Dallas? The Pats are no exception, and it would be interesting to see if the team has the character to play its best football in the face of defeat, or whether they react like a car careening onto a sidewalk crowded with pedestrians......

 

In other words, the Colts won't win a close one. They'll either beat the Pats like a rented mule, or lose yet another heartbreaker.

 

Great post. You convince me that this is a likely analysis.

[eball]

I like New England because Harrison is hurt and Belichek knows it. They can play soft zone and double Wayne all day. Then they can blitz off Harrisons side, and concentrate on stopping the run up the middle and to the left.

 

I really like Peyton and he deserves a championship shot, but it is going to be rough without Harrison at even 80%.

 

On a side note...Chicago is going to explode on New Orleans. Defense and Special teams. It's going to be the Fridge Bowl again with NE and CHI.

Thanks for the analysis, Chris Berman. Unfortunately, you have it all wrong. Saints v. Colts in the first Manning Bowl.

[generaLee83]

Unless Asante pulls in a huge game I see Peyton dominating the Pats secondary.

 

If NE cannot effectively pressure Manning I see a Colts 31-10 victory.

[generaLee83]

The Pats are no exception, and it would be interesting to see if the team has the character to play its best football in the face of defeat, or whether they react like a car careening onto a sidewalk crowded with pedestrians......

 

Now if it's the pats current team of geriatric patients I'd expect them to drive into the crowd of pedestrians at about 13 mph, coming to rest only when the bodies are piled too high.

[keepthefaith]

Thanks for the analysis, Chris Berman. Unfortunately, you have it all wrong. Saints v. Colts in the first Manning Bowl.

 

Colts - Bears. Saints are a great storyt this year, but the Bears will prevail at home. Bears Defense will make the big plays (turnovers) to win, and the Bears will run the ball on a snowy messy field.

[Prognastic]

If the Pats can put effective pressure on Manning and the offense can mix up the run and pass on the Colts D then the Pats should win. The Colts D "flipped the switch" because the KC and Balt offensive gameplan was to simply run the ball despite there being 8-9 guys in the box all day. They couldnt pass the ball if and when they wanted to because they suck and they were behind which allowed Freeney and the pass rushers to simply tee off.

 

Dont underestimate "Clock Killin" Corey Dillon's impact in this game if the Pats are ahead/tied or down by only a few.

 

 

Patriots 27

Colts 17

[BuckeyeBill]

I think you are wrong here. The reason why the Colts keep losing to the New England Patriots each year in the post season is because they were always playing away! I remember the reports of the Patriot's ground crew icing down their field so that it wasn't fast and be difficult for a fast team to play on. Gillette Stadium in January has to be one of the worst places to play in the world, and has given the Patriots the advantage. This game is being played indoors, in Indianapolis where the field will be lightning quick.

 

And last year, the reason why the Colts lost to the Steelers is that the Colts has too much time off. Kinda reminding me of what happened to the Buckeyes when they lost to Florida a few weeks ago. Remember the Colts stopped really playing AFTER their perfect season was ruined by San Diego last year. When they came to play for the playoffs, it took Peyton, Marvin, and Reggie almost and entire half to get caught up. We know that the Colts are caught up. They just beat the best defense in the league in Baltimore. They won't be outmatched in this game by any stretch of the imagination. They are ready to play, they are clicking (even though Peyton's numbers don't exactly agree here, but you can trust that he will be ready tomorrow), and they have their homefield (with all that artificial noise being played when Brady is on the field).

 

New England is beatable in the playoffs, they lost last year, and they will lose this year. If Indy does lose, it won't be a blow-out, I can guarantee that.

[AKC]

Unless Asante pulls in a huge game I see Peyton dominating the Pats secondary.

 

If NE cannot effectively pressure Manning I see a Colts 31-10 victory.

 

Wayne surely semed to have a substantial advantage on Assante in Nov. It's hard to imagine how that might change since it's even harder to imagine NE switching their coverage scheme to go one DB on Harrison instead of putting Hobbs and deep help on him.

[keepthefaith]

Colts - Bears. Saints are a great storyt this year, but the Bears will prevail at home. Bears Defense will make the big plays (turnovers) to win, and the Bears will run the ball on a snowy messy field.

 

I think I'm the only one on this board that had it right. Now, the Bears will win in Miami. The Big play defense is back and the Bears can run the heck out of the ball.

[Fan in San Diego]

Good prediction. I hope you didn't bet too much !

[OCinBuffalo]

Dungy is too smart, what a farce. This guy is the new version of Marty. Look at his Playoff record w/ Tampa and Indy.. I bet Belichick loves the prospect of coaching against Dungy just like he loves coaching against Cowher, Herm and the like. On the other hand if this a Shanahan team that is a huge challenge because he is a great coach.

I guess you were wrong. Dungy outcoached Belichick in this game. The colts ran the ball and tired out the Patriots D - who is OLD - just like I said. In fact, if the Colts weren't playing from behind for 85% of this game, Addai would have had at least 120 yards and Rhodes prolly close to 80. I am sure Belechick doesn't love the prospect of coaching against Dungy anymore, not that he ever did.

[Dr. K]

Good prediction. I hope you didn't bet too much !

 

I don't bet.

 

It was looking like a pretty good call at the half. I am overjoyed to be proved wrong. What a game!