I went 4 of 5 last week including Gators over OSU in BCS

[truth on hold]

My picks and why for this week:

 

Saints over Bears: Saints have too many weapons for the Bears to defend (maybe too many for anyone), including the best play caller in the league in head coach Sean Payton. Play calling importance has been under-estimated because so much emphasis has gone into game planning whereas play calling's limited time frame actually requires more talent. Really all the talk about Rex Grossman for the Bears is misplaced ... just like last week he'll neither win nor lose as his team will be beaten by a superior opponent across the board. Also over-emphasized factors will be home field, natural turf and cold weater. Forget it .... Saints are the better team no matter the environ. If I had to go into detail to support this conclusion via a position vs position analysis it would take too much space, so my apologies for leaving it general.

 

Colts over Pats: took me a long time to reach a conclusion here. The head says Colts (home field dome, unbeaten at home, team speed, more convincing playoff wins, etc) but the gut says Pats with the history between the 2 teams/coaches. When you examine how the Pats beat the Colts in 2003 playoffs the game plan was extremely simple: Pats DBs/Safeties/LBs beat up the Colts WRs all the way from the line of scrimmage until the whistle was blown to a.) tire them out and b.) put them out of their routes (redirect) to throw off the Colts timing patterns. Pats key defensive players in this were Ty Law (now with KC) and Rodney Harrison (unlikely to play, shell of former self if he does.) Not only are they all-but missing but the officials are now calling it much closer on pass interference and illegal contact in the secondary than they did in 2003. This is no coincidence: after the 2003 loss, Colts GM Bill Polian lobbied the NFL Rules Committee to make this enforcement change. His argument, although self-serving, also had merit: by slowing the game down, reducing big plays and turning it into a game of field goals, the league was destined to lose fan interest/revenue. So look for Colts to be able to move the ball much better this time against Pats, with Harrison, Wayne & Co. licking their chops at revenge. Since Colts will score the key question becomes: how will Pats offense perform against Colts defense? My answer: not as well as Colts does against Pats defense. Colts defense is perfectly suited to counter Pats offensive strengths: running and quick outs. Colts run defense has stiffened with the return of strong safety Bob Sanders shutting down both Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis in consecutive weeks and the Colts speedy LBs and DEs will be able to disrupt Brady's throwing lanes and limit YACs on completions. So first off look for Pats to get very little on 1st and 2nd down, whereas they typically clip 4 to 5 yards a pop. This puts it all on Brady and the deep threat. With that being so isolated I don't think they will be able to keep pace with Colts offense. The deep throw to Caldwell last week was setup by effective running and short passes which the Pats won't have this week. Brady will be forced into obvious long passing situations that the Colts will be ready for. Not that Pats will be completely shutdown, they just won't be effective enough to score more than Colts.

 

Colts 27, Pats 19

8 & 3 now .... boy was i wrong on saints and in first half of colts game looking like i was going to go 0 & 2 this week. colts played a whale of a 2nd half to give me the split. i'll be back with my super bowl pick and analysis next week.

[truth on hold]

8 & 3 now .... boy was i wrong on saints and in first half of colts game looking like i was going to go 0 & 2 this week. colts played a whale of a 2nd half to give me the split. i'll be back with my super bowl pick and analysis next week.

Da' Bears! in a 22-19 upset

 

bears will win a sloppily played game which accounts for the odd 22-19 score. look for things like a safety, a missed extra point, etc etc. that's the kind of game bears usually win and also plays to colts weakness of not adjusting well when things don't go as planned. as levy would say, teams need to focus equally on defense, offense and special teams: i'll give colts nod on offense, but bears win other 2. and it's that special team component that adds to the unexpected plays and leads to a bears victory. all the the talk about rex this and that is misdirected: he'll neither win or lose the game, just like the bears 2 other post season wins. if anything, manning with all the pressure dating back to father archie is more likely to try and do too much and cost his team some key plays.

 

a key matchup to look for is the bears defensive line versus the colts offensive line. both have been exceptional. a classic battle of the immovable object versus the irresistable force. if bears put pressure on manning and with urlacher taking away slot passes it could be a long day for colts. if colts win the battle bears still have their superior special teams to make the difference in a win.

 

and with that i am looking to add to my gators upset pick in the big gone, and bring my post-season record to a healthy 9 & 3. and oddly the 2 teams that meet in the super bowl account for all 3 of my losses (2 by the colts vs chefs and ravens, 1 by the bears vs saints.)