The Official draft

[Pyrite Gal]

If we take Willis as our MLB starter it seems to me a lot of other things have to happen in order for this team not to take likely take a fairly significant step back in D production as overall we would need to replace a bunch of roles F-B fills for us that it seems pretty doubtful that Willis could fill.

 

I have few doubts that the descriptions of Willis as a player is almost certainly going to be a better player than Fletch who can do a credible job at the tackle machine role F-B played for us and with a significant height advantage and the background to play good coverage he should replace him quite well in one on one coverage. However, in addition to outpacing Fletcher in these areas he will also have to replace:

 

1. F-B is the D captain and a positive locker room force for this team and I doubt any rookie will have the respect to fill this critical role for a while, so those who advocate a Willis replacement of F-B at MLB (it makes more sense to me if we lose him as we appear likely to do that we go to FA for a replacement) should at least talk about how they see his leadership being replaced on this team.

 

Before folks simply choose to disregard the import of the locker room leadership, my sense is that the default on a team is that when the braintrust suspends a player as the Bills did with Moulds last is for players to band with the player when the bosses crack down. Even in cases where the punishment is well-deserved (as it seems to be in this case where Moulds threw his hissy fit midgame because a younger player - Evans - had unseated him as the go- to guy (even the TO case split the Philly team when he was suspended bit ot seems locker room leaders like F-B and none other NFLPA Pres Troy Vincent judged the discipline was merited and even with TKO initially publically questioning Bills action and the Bill's braintrust being led by the increasingly unpopular TD and MM the team hunh together and Moulds left town.

 

I would be shocked if the publicly acknowledged locker room leaders did not play a role in keeping the team unified and with F-B and TV gone positive leadership from the players will need to emerge on this team. A quality FA vet pick-up can play this role a rookie should not be expected to and cannot. Its no downcheck on Willis, but if he is our choice at MLN this role will need to be filled from elsewhere in order for this team to likely be a winner.

 

Youth is great but the downside that comes with that is relative inexperience and a Bills team with the youth movement underway appears to probably need to deal with that.

 

2. I have few doubts about this Butkus winner being a good one on one coverage guy, but what he is expected to do by choosing him as a starter as a rookie is to actually play a central role in making the Tampa 2 we play work and I do no think it is likely that a rookie will be able to handle this role at MLB.

 

In the Tampa 2 (as traditionally run) and it seems in the Tampa 2 as employed by the Bills, the MLB not only has the typical run stuffing duty and coverage of any receiver that may stray through the middle zone on some 3rd downs, the MLB is required to divide the field into three with the two safeties and play deep zone. It is the rare rookie (in fact none of them really who has both seen a bunch of NFL plays to diagnose whether the play is a deep pass and he should cover a fleet WR or he should pinch in if the opponents use trickery on 3rd down. If the Bills draft Willis to start it would not be surprising if he really was a two down back early in his career and likely the Bills would need to do something to supplement him and his inexperience.

 

3. F-B also calls the plays for the D, In theory, one of the safeties is in a position of seeing the field and near the center of the field where he can effectively communicate to both sides could play this role. However, since both Whitner and Simpson have only a season under their belts, this Bills might have to go to some sort of pass along communications strategy to make it work with a rookie starter at MLB.

 

There are other things F-B accomplished last year which will be quite difficult for Willis to replicate (he led LBs in the entire league in terms of INTs not to mention us needing to replace his team leading INT totals.

 

If we draft Willis to start we would get a great player, yet one who unless we find a way to do the things F-B did that a rookie cannotm then likely this D will take a step back in performance next year.

[Ozymandius]

Every year we talk about who the Bills are going to pick and every year we're WRONG!! We have no idea what Marv and co. are thinking but I'm sure they have a plan. They're plan could be go go with an electric player like Ginn or Lynch, or go with a big DT. Point is, we have no idea and come draft day I'm sure we'll be in for a surprise, just like Whitner.

In one of my mock drafts from last year, I had the Bills picking Whitner. I also had them trading down before picking Whitner, but that's another story altogether. :-)

[Ozymandius]

Pyrite -- the assumption is that Fletcher is gone. So the question really isn't who is going to be better next year, Willis or Fletcher, but rather who is going to be better next year, Willis or another replacement.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

In one of my mock drafts from last year, I had the Bills picking Whitner. I also had them trading down before picking Whitner, but that's another story altogether. :-)

Please tell me that you aren't the guy who said Erik Meyer from would turn out to be the best QB in lasts years draft.

[Ozymandius]

Please tell me that you aren't the guy who said Erik Meyer from would turn out to be the best QB in lasts years draft.

Second best. But looks like he's going the Flutie route due to lack of arm strength (CFL first).

 

Even if I'm wrong about that, I'm the same guy who said Whitner and Simpson would be good players but we'd be disappointed with McCargo and Youboty. How's that turning out?

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Second best. But looks like he's going the Flutie route due to lack of arm strength (CFL first).

 

Even if I'm wrong about that, I'm the same guy who said Whitner and Simpson would be good players but we'd be disappointed with McCargo and Youboty. How's that turning out?

You are simply ...THE BEST !!!

[JStranger76]

Since free agency hasn't happened yet Willis is my #2 choice of realistic available choices at 12, right after Okoye. I think Willis will be better out of the gate, but Okoye could turn into the next Warren Sapp when he was a great player, like 5-7 years ago, with better run stuffing ability. You could say Willis could be the next Ray Lewis as well, so we'll see...............

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

That's why many of us are calling for us to re-sign CB Nate ie why make a hole when don't have to?

 

What if Leon Hall could give us the same quality play as Nate Clements (maybe a little less) for 4 years and we paid him 2/3 less than Clements's salary?

 

That, to me, is an attractive alternative--especially given that with the savings we could go out and sign 4-5 medium priced free agents that could give us greater talent across the board.

 

Don't get me wrong--I would LOVE if we could re-sign Clements. But I just don't think it's financially sensible, given how much he's going to demand.

[Ozymandius]

What if Leon Hall could give us the same quality play as Nate Clements (maybe a little less) for 4 years and we paid him 2/3 less than Clements's salary?

 

That, to me, is an attractive alternative--especially given that with the savings we could go out and sign 4-5 medium priced free agents that could give us greater talent across the board.

 

Don't get me wrong--I would LOVE if we could re-sign Clements. But I just don't think it's financially sensible, given how much he's going to demand.

 

IF that were possible, then I agree with you. But one of the reasons why Nate is great right now is because he already went through his seasoning as an NFL CB and is now entering his prime. Even Champ Bailey had "pretty good" seasons until recently when he became dominant. There's almost no way a corner in this draft can duplicate what Nate can give us over the next four to five years. There is no Pacman Jones talent in this draft, and if there were, we would not be in a position to draft him.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

IF that were possible, then I agree with you. But one of the reasons why Nate is great right now is because he already went through his seasoning as an NFL CB and is now entering his prime. Even Champ Bailey had "pretty good" seasons until recently when he became dominant. There's almost no way a corner in this draft can duplicate what Nate can give us over the next four to five years. There is no Pacman Jones talent in this draft, and if there were, we would not be in a position to draft him.

 

Nate has been pretty much consistent every year if you look at his stats. Champ Bailey too--except for these last two seasons where he had high interception totals.

 

Maybe Nate will explode now that he's his his prime and get 10 picks per year. But is it worth the price tag?

[Ozymandius]

Nate has been pretty much consistent every year if you look at his stats. Champ Bailey too--except for these last two seasons where he had high interception totals.

 

Maybe Nate will explode now that he's his his prime and get 10 picks per year. But is it worth the price tag?

 

With CBs, it's hard to tell much with stats. Nate was a true lockdown corner this year. Bailey has been for the past two years. They've both improved a lot since their rookie seasons.

[obie_wan]

With CBs, it's hard to tell much with stats. Nate was a true lockdown corner this year. Bailey has been for the past two years. They've both improved a lot since their rookie seasons.

 

 

have to question the sense in paying top dollar for a corner when the design of the D has the corner playing off 10 yards.

 

The Cover 2 does not use much press coverage and typically uses soft zone.

 

This could be a strong indication that the Bills Nate can be replaced with a draft pick.

[The Jokeman]

Nate has been pretty much consistent every year if you look at his stats. Champ Bailey too--except for these last two seasons where he had high interception totals.

 

Maybe Nate will explode now that he's his his prime and get 10 picks per year. But is it worth the price tag?

Bailey's cap figuere is around $9 million a year, let's assume Nate gets a similar contract. IF signed the Bills would STILL have $30 million under the cap according to the estimates that we have $39.7 million in cap space. Tell me again why Nate isn't worth signing? Is there really a player on the free agent landscape whose worth that amount or what combination of players be worth more then what Nate brings to the table?

[SnakeOiler]

U gotta line up 3 LBs, and suddenly it's a position of weakness for the Bills. Fletcher is as good as gone, and who knows about Spikes' return to form. Plus, Spikes might be gone after next year anyway. The only sure thing we have is Crowell, who is a decent NFL starter, but nothing great. Remember we also started COY WIRE at LB towards the end of the year!

 

We've got to get 2 LBs one way or another this offseason. One positive for drafting a LB in the 1st round over another position (esp DT, OLine) is that there has been a lot of rookie LBs making an immediate impact in the NFL recently. Hawk, Vilma, Merriman, Lofa Tatupu, Demarcus Ware, Derrick Johnson, DJ Williams, Kam Wimbley(11 sacks), and Ernie Simms to name a few. Each of these guys started as a rookie and had a big impact on their teams. I don't think the track record for DTs is as good. Plus, we drafted 2 rookies at DT last year that should be improved next year.

 

I'll leave the evaluation of which LB up to the pros, but if the stats are correct, this P-willis has pretty good size already for a MLB -- which is something Jauron said they wanted.

 

Another potential position would be DE, if there is a difference maker there. I would not use the 1st round pick on offense unless it is for a very good Oline prospect.

[Pyrite Gal]

Pyrite -- the assumption is that Fletcher is gone. So the question really isn't who is going to be better next year, Willis or Fletcher, but rather who is going to be better next year, Willis or another replacement.

 

Not being privy to the actual discussions between the Bills and F-B an not being in F-Bs headm I think the assumption that he is gone is simply an assumption and really means little in terms of reality.

 

The quotes from him do not look good, but actually are just what I would say in order to secure the largest possible contract from the Bills so the speculation he is a goner may well be correct, but it may well be wrong also.

 

If one is thinking how do you replace him, my sense is that getting Patrick Willis is great because he appears to be a great player, but he does not appear to be a good answer if ones goal is to replace F-B as there are simply real world production and roles that we got and were played by Fletch this year that Willis and quite frankly no rookie can replace.

 

My sense is that if one must replace him because he heads to some other city closer to the seminary where he studies (actually the major reason I think he would walk from what he has said and done) or he gets hit by a car or whatever, what I think the Bills probably should do is:

 

1. Assuming Crowell really is recovered (such is the report on the healing of his broken foot) I would return him to the MLB position he was originally drafted and trained at as a back-up to Fletch his first two years.

 

2. I would also hope that the problems TKO has this past year actually came from him working a bit too hard on his recovery and this led to both his tremendous start and his hammy pull his first game. I doubt TKO will return to his Pro Bowl form as he is on the wrong side of 30, but even 80% of the Pro Bowl TKO is pretty good and if he resumes an appropriate semblance of his former play that would do for me.

 

3. Given we still need a starter an OLB at this point then I use our large cap room on an FA OLB like a Briggs who should be able to command the respect of real NFL play in the past and can fill some of the gaps left by F-Bs departure. In addition, going for an OLB in the draft actually opens up some options for us of players beyond Willis,

 

This to me would seem to be the approach that most helps us win next year.

[Thurmal34]

if there is a guy who is a better CB than this guy is a DT, why is it preferable to not take a CB?

 

(if we dont sign nate, that is)

 

What is the better strategy, taking the 4th or 5th best player at position x simply because of "need" or taking the best player at another position even if you are relatively set there if the player is elite? IMO you take the BPA, regardless of position. As a caveat, I don't portend to know anything about college football, but if a guy is elite, you take him and find a way to get him on the field rather than drafting a lesser player simply because you think you "need" to fill that spot.

[Albany,n.y.]

Every year we talk about who the Bills are going to pick and every year we're WRONG!! We have no idea what Marv and co. are thinking but I'm sure they have a plan. They're plan could be go go with an electric player like Ginn or Lynch, or go with a big DT. Point is, we have no idea and come draft day I'm sure we'll be in for a surprise, just like Whitner.

I will not be surprised when it is said "Buffalo selects linebacker Paul Posluszny, Penn State"

Marv loves Penn State linebackers.

[Ozymandius]

Not being privy to the actual discussions between the Bills and F-B an not being in F-Bs headm I think the assumption that he is gone is simply an assumption and really means little in terms of reality.

I'm just telling you that when these folks are posting about drafting Patrick Willis, they're assuming that F-B is gone.

[bills_fan]

have to question the sense in paying top dollar for a corner when the design of the D has the corner playing off 10 yards.

 

The Cover 2 does not use much press coverage and typically uses soft zone.

 

This could be a strong indication that the Bills Nate can be replaced with a draft pick.

 

True, but after the bye, the Bills assigned Nate to the opponents best WR, in man coverage. He was able to play tight (no more zone) the maority of the plays. It was part of the reason for our defensive improvement. Also, McGee, played much better after the bye. He too was allowed to play tighter. Our CBs were a bit confused by the zone and our coaches, to their credit, tweaked the system to take better advantage of the CBs individual talents.

[2003Contenders]

Bailey's cap figuere is around $9 million a year, let's assume Nate gets a similar contract. IF signed the Bills would STILL have $30 million under the cap according to the estimates that we have $39.7 million in cap space. Tell me again why Nate isn't worth signing? Is there really a player on the free agent landscape whose worth that amount or what combination of players be worth more then what Nate brings to the table?

 

Personally I agree. Nate was able to single-handedly shutdown some pretty good WRs (Harrison, A Johnson, C Chambers to name a few) this season, and he is definitely going to be better than anything that we would have on hand to replace him with. If it were up to me, I'd go ahead and pay whatever it takes to lock him up for the next 5-6 years.

 

As you point out, given our nice cap situation, money is not necessarily the issue. Indeed, I have a feeling that politics plays a role too -- and if Nate receives the kind of payday from us that it will take to keep him in the fold, he will become the highest paid player in team history. That in and of itself is an uneasy thought with guys like Lee Evans, Willis McGahee and JP Losman not far from free agency themselves.

 

What's more, don't forget that this is a two-sided negotiation, as Marv supposedly parted with the Franchise Tag bargaining chip that would normally be at his disposal. (Let this be a lesson not to EVER do this again, Marv!) Thus, in order for Nate to continue playing here he has to WANT to stay here -- and I've heard conflicting reports that this may not be the case. In my mind, Marv screwed the pooch on this one in many ways last season. Recall that Nate was coming off a really bad season -- and his bid for free agency hit at the worst possible time for him. Instead of working a deal to buy low at that time, Marv essentially gave Nate another try at a contract year -- and this time he made good on it. Thus, he probably allowed Nate to price himself out of our market.