CosmicBills Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 Assessing the ’06 Team: Yeah, this is long. So long I broke it into two parts, Offense and Defense. Obviously I have too much time on my hands, but it’s the playoffs and the Bills aren’t playing. So I’m bored. This is how I cope. It's far too early to discuss with any reliable accuracy the Bills’ “Off Season Plan” since both the combine/draft hype and Free Agency are still over eight weeks away. Until we get closer to those dates, the most efficient way to figure out what strategy the Bills might employ is to evaluate the ’06 roster and see what holes there are to fill. This is the first step the Front Office will take. They will spend the next few weeks reviewing and analyzing their own team to see what positions need to be addressed in the off season. This means pouring over hours of game footage, practice notes and contracts. Since I don't have any of those resources, I'm going from my gut based on what I saw. Consider this the first part of my off season analysis. The next parts will be FA and the Draft. OFFENSE: QB: JP's arrival might not have been a fireworks display or an atomic bomb. Hell it might not have even been a cherry bomb, but the kid has clearly arrived. Dick announced mid-season that JP would be "the guy" in '07 and his play down the stretch only validated the team's confidence in him. It's nice to know that for the first time in a long time the Bills won't be searching for an answer to the QB question. Nall and Holcomb offer quality depth as well. RB: “Willis-Gate” is heating up. Sportswriters and those "in the know" seem to think Willis is angling to force a trade more so than a contract extension. My belief is that the Bills will indeed look for trading partners for Willis, but a high price tag (2nd/3rd round pick, maybe more) will limit those options. He will be offered a contract extension for less than he expects. Willis won't sign it, but he also won't hold out. He'll show up and play out his remaining contract and be gone in FA. That is how I see this scenario unfolding. This scenario means that the Bills will have a hole to fill in the RB position sooner than they might like. If someone does take the bait and depart with a second round pick for Willis (something that could unfold on Draft Day but is highly unlikely), then the Bills would be forced to address this issue in the draft. Regardless of how the situation resolves itself, I expect the Bills to eschew the FA route and focus instead on resigning A-Train to provide them a cheap, durable backup/spot starter and draft a young back in April. It’s possible this pick could come higher in the draft than some on TSW might like. Even if Willis sticks in '07, bringing in a young back has to be a priority to protect against his departure. FB: Shelton is good but aging quickly as most FBs do. Cieslak proved he was able to handle some of the duties, but the staff appeared to lose some confidence in his lead blocking abilities in the final game against Baltimore (who could blame them?). This is an area of need, though not high on the list. I expect the Bills to bring in some FAs to compete, but Shelton/Cieslak will probably handle the duties in ’07. WR: Everyone knows Lee is a good WR. He is a game breaker and handled Moulds' departure better than most anticipated. The problem with the WR corps is the rest of the group. Price, Josh, Roscoe, Aiken, Davis are all good niche players. None are good Number 2 receivers. Roscoe and Josh have their talents on third down and in the slot; Price can stretch the field but doesn't get open enough to be a true Number 2; and Aiken and Davis are special team studs. After the Bye Week, the lack of a big WR (or TE, but more on that in a moment) had more of an impact on the passing game this season than any other element of the team. Yes, even more than the line. Let me state this as clearly as I can: WR PLAY STALLED THE OFFENSE MORE THAN ANY OTHER POSITION BUT FOR TE. Fairchild wants to open up the passing attack. And why shouldn't he? The line is coming together; he has a QB who can make all the throws, and a game changing WR in Evans. Opening up the passing game will do wonders for the running game and the Bills' production in the red zone. The problem is you can't open up the passing game until you get a quality Number 2 receiver. There just isn’t that sort of player on the roster right now. Expect the Bills to address this in FA or the Draft. A lot of people on here will say the Bills would be foolish to spend the #12 pick on a WR -- and they may have a point -- but truth is WR is right near the top of the "need" list. TE: Royal was an upgrade for the position, however, he wasn't the game changer in the passing game Marv hoped for when he signed him. Everett had a hard time cracking the lineup at times and, according to Dick, was still "learning the system" half way through the year. Cieslak played well when given the chance, but he didn't stand out as a real threat in the passing game either. This has been an area of need for the Bills for sometime now. While it's too early to call Everett a bust, it's not too early to say the Bills still need a game breaking TE. However, the early draft reports are thin at TE which means it's unlikely one will be available in April. There are few in the FA market as well that would qualify as "game breakers". The lack of options here only adds urgency to the Bills' quest to find a solid Number 2 receiver. JP needs a big, reliable target to take up the middle of the field, loosen the Defense and take pressure off of Lee. This simply will not be accomplished this off season in the TE position. OL: Even the most hardened skeptics have to admit that the OL improved dramatically after the Bye Week shuffle. The left side was solid -- Peters & Gandy were counted on to handle the bulk of the rushing load and excelled in pass protection. The right side was young, but gained tremendous experience as the year wore on. Fowler was steady, if unspectacular, in the pivot. However, was the improvement so dramatic because the line is solid or did it just appear to be solid in comparison to the horrendous lines of the past few seasons? It's a matter of degrees, but an important question. I think when they go back through the film they are going to find that the tackles are set (Peters and Pennington appear to be the real deal -- even if Pennington is still very, very green), but the rest is up for debate. Despite this, I feel confident in one prediction: Gandy will be resigned. He played well enough to deserve an extension and is the best guard on the roster. Preston took a step back in my eyes and now has a huge question mark over his helmet. I think the Bills will go hard in FA and the draft after OG and C to add more competition to the mix. The danger the Bills front office faces right now is assuming the OL is fine. It is better, yes, but it is not "fine". It needs upgrades in the middle. Picking at 12 makes taking a OG almost out of the question. I expect a 2nd or 3rd round OG and possible a FA or two to be brought in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coltrane34 Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 Nice analysis, and it will become fact when the Bills draft a WR at 12 or earlier. Their need at wr will be addressed in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 Nice analysis, and it will become fact when the Bills draft a WR at 12 or earlier. Their need at wr will be addressed in the first round. I don't know if the Bills will spend a number one on a wr or not..... we will not know what holes will be left until we see who is signed in free-agency before the draft. I do agree that getting a threat at the number 2 receiver slot IS a big need.... Peerless Price averaged 8.2 yards a catch!!! That is sh--!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 Assessing the ’06 Team: Roscoe and Josh have their talents on third down and in the slot; Price can stretch the field but doesn't get open enough to be a true Number 2; and Aiken and Davis are special team studs. After the Bye Week, the lack of a big WR (or TE, but more on that in a moment) had more of an impact on the passing game this season than any other element of the team. Yes, even more than the line. Let me state this as clearly as I can: WR PLAY STALLED THE OFFENSE MORE THAN ANY OTHER POSITION BUT FOR TE. Fairchild wants to open up the passing attack. And why shouldn't he? The line is coming together; he has a QB who can make all the throws, and a game changing WR in Evans. Opening up the passing game will do wonders for the running game and the Bills' production in the red zone. The problem is you can't open up the passing game until you get a quality Number 2 receiver. There just isn’t that sort of player on the roster right now. While there has been a lack of production at the 2nd WR position, I think it is unfair to put the blame on Price completely. In the 1st half of the season the line could not block for anyone to get open. In the second half of the season, the line could block but we were not throwing to Price necessarily all the time as the 2nd option....Remember we played Green Bay, Indy, and San Diego to not lose the ball game and very conservatively in the 2nd half of the season. There was no scope for a 2nd WR to catch balls in those games. In the rest of the games Price did play decently, however we were going more often to our TEs than the 2nd WR. It looked like TE and RBs were the 2nd options in JPs progression on the plays. I would like to make this line more solid and give Price a chance. What we truly require is a tall and physical WR who can take on some of the double coverages from Evans. Price has not been able to do that this season. Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish are ideally suited for the slot receiver position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 While there has been a lack of production at the 2nd WR position, I think it is unfair to put the blame on Price completely. In the 1st half of the season the line could not block for anyone to get open. In the second half of the season, the line could block but we were not throwing to Price necessarily all the time as the 2nd option....Remember we played Green Bay, Indy, and San Diego to not lose the ball game and very conservatively in the 2nd half of the season. There was no scope for a 2nd WR to catch balls in those games. In the rest of the games Price did play decently, however we were going more often to our TEs than the 2nd WR. It looked like TE and RBs were the 2nd options in JPs progression on the plays. I would like to make this line more solid and give Price a chance. What we truly require is a tall and physical WR who can take on some of the double coverages from Evans. Price has not been able to do that this season. Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish are ideally suited for the slot receiver position. Price was an aging homecoming bandaid that played well enough that the Bills offense wasn't a complete castrophe. They'll look for someone new and if not this year then DEFINITELY next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 While there has been a lack of production at the 2nd WR position, I think it is unfair to put the blame on Price completely. In the 1st half of the season the line could not block for anyone to get open. In the second half of the season, the line could block but we were not throwing to Price necessarily all the time as the 2nd option....Remember we played Green Bay, Indy, and San Diego to not lose the ball game and very conservatively in the 2nd half of the season. There was no scope for a 2nd WR to catch balls in those games. In the rest of the games Price did play decently, however we were going more often to our TEs than the 2nd WR. It looked like TE and RBs were the 2nd options in JPs progression on the plays. I would like to make this line more solid and give Price a chance. What we truly require is a tall and physical WR who can take on some of the double coverages from Evans. Price has not been able to do that this season. Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish are ideally suited for the slot receiver position. So- it's the offensive lines fault that Peerless Price is not a playmaker or at least a threat at the number two receiver spot? The offensive lines woes don't seem to inhibit Lee Evans much! Sorry- but Price is at best a below average number two receiver no matter who plays on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 So- it's the offensive lines fault that Peerless Price is not a playmaker or at least a threat at the number two receiver spot? The offensive lines woes don't seem to inhibit Lee Evans much! Sorry- but Price is at best a below average number two receiver no matter who plays on the line. I don't think Price and Evans are in the same class to be compared with.....Price is in for the 2nd WR position and I think given a better line and a improved playbook he can have a better year than this season. However, having said that I wanted to reiterate that what we need for a #2 WR is a physical WR like a Moulds who can take some punishment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted January 10, 2007 Author Share Posted January 10, 2007 However, having said that I wanted to reiterate that what we need for a #2 WR is a physical WR like a Moulds who can take some punishment.... I agree with this. The Bills don't need a Ted Ginn Jr type, they need a tall, physical receiver to take up the middle of the field and force the defenses to account for him in the redzone. Roscoe, Josh and Peerless are good at niche things -- but they don't fit that bill. The lack of this sort of target really hurt the Bills and it's something I fully expect them to address in the off season. I know there are already threads on Jarrett, and he would be an interesting fit if he is still around at 12. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bills take him. However, this is also an area that could be addressed in FA with a Drew Bennet type as well. I guess my point was that going into the season, people (myself included) expected the WR corps to be a real strength on this team with their speed and Fairchild's background. But it just wasn't the case. Instead, the corps turned into a liabilty, and that is something that will be addressed in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted January 23, 2007 Author Share Posted January 23, 2007 Just a shameless bump since these topics keep coming back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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