Pyrite Gal Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 In the past few seasons there has been some debate on TSW about the utility of choosing a QB in the first round of the draft. Arguments were made that we must take such actions as make sure we get Joey Harrington in the draft (we all know how that advice turned out as JH will go down in history as an answer to the trivia question which player was a bigger bust than even the Bills' Mike Williams). I countered with the argument that the stats simply indicate that no QB drafted in the 1st round had led the team that chose him to an SB win since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. The SB run of future organ donor Ben RoboQB has silenced a lot of this discussion. However, I have continued to follow the fate of teams led by a guy they drafted in the 1st round with interest in order to see if RoboQBs win is the start of a new day in the NFL harkening back to the days when the QB draft class of 83 and the marketing efforts of the NFL combined to make everyone feel they had to lock up much cap room and commitment into a QB or they had no chance at an SB win. It may also be the case that last year's Pitt win with a 1st round QB they chose at the helm may simply be the exception to the rule that presages another decade plus wait until a first round choice by a team leads them to an SB victory. The story so far is this: 12 teams in the playoffs 3 teams have QBs they drafted in the first (Pennington, Manning, Grossman *) *Since NYG and SD essentially flipped draft picks soon on draft day one might argue the number is 5 though technically it is not since neither team drafted the QB leading the team right now and the argument is that 1st round QBs can be found through trades so why take the cap hit of drafting them. Certainly the Elway case is quite different than the NYG/SD case as now slotting and the salary cap exist in ways that I think Elway is most accurately considered a player obtained in a true trade rather than the flopping picks case for the two young QBs where their acquisition is much more strongly linked to the up and downsides of taking a QB in the 1st round. Results after bye week, 1 W and 1 L from the 2 QBs who played (*1 W 2 Ls if you want to consider Eli as a drafted 1st rounder since he was acquired on during the draft). At any rate, things seem to be playing out roughly equal to the statistical record of the past. Peyton M, and Rex G, are the two remaining QBs who can replicate the feat of RoboQB. Manning looks somewhat dubious for accomplishing this task as now he must leave the friendly confines of the Dome and if the weather makes passing the ball difficult and forces the Indy D to be stout against the run I do not think many folks will be betting on them. Grossman looks like a better shot at making it through to the Big game though this is due to the weakness of the NFC for the most part. Rivers looks like a better shot if you want to ignore the technical facts but alot of this is thanks to LT and Merriman so we will see. Overall, since Eli has already gone down this season actually is a pretty good performance by 1st round draftees of bringing the team that picked them to the playoffs. However, as two of the 5 if one uses a liberal counting method are already heading home for the off-season once again locking up money and time on a QB rather than simply cherry picking a 1st drafted by someone else as the Ravens did with Dilfer and they are trying to do again this year with McBair appears to be a more sensible method of team building. This is interesting from a Bills perspective as the history of JP has demonstrated that drafting a QB in the 1st is no panacea and it seems to cause folks like TD to turn the reins over to this athlete before they are ready. We'll see what happens with the Bills as they and JP seem to have weathered the storm (so far) of the huge expectations fans place on a QB drafted in the which almost always seems to doom this player to not winning the SB. As a Bills fan I am very happy that RoboQB broke the ice for JP.
RLflutie7 Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 In the past few seasons there has been some debate on TSW about the utility of choosing a QB in the first round of the draft. Arguments were made that we must take such actions as make sure we get Joey Harrington in the draft (we all know how that advice turned out as JH will go down in history as an answer to the trivia question which player was a bigger bust than even the Bills' Mike Williams). I countered with the argument that the stats simply indicate that no QB drafted in the 1st round had led the team that chose him to an SB win since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. The SB run of future organ donor Ben RoboQB has silenced a lot of this discussion. However, I have continued to follow the fate of teams led by a guy they drafted in the 1st round with interest in order to see if RoboQBs win is the start of a new day in the NFL harkening back to the days when the QB draft class of 83 and the marketing efforts of the NFL combined to make everyone feel they had to lock up much cap room and commitment into a QB or they had no chance at an SB win. It may also be the case that last year's Pitt win with a 1st round QB they chose at the helm may simply be the exception to the rule that presages another decade plus wait until a first round choice by a team leads them to an SB victory. The story so far is this: 12 teams in the playoffs 3 teams have QBs they drafted in the first (Pennington, Manning, Grossman *) *Since NYG and SD essentially flipped draft picks soon on draft day one might argue the number is 5 though technically it is not since neither team drafted the QB leading the team right now and the argument is that 1st round QBs can be found through trades so why take the cap hit of drafting them. Certainly the Elway case is quite different than the NYG/SD case as now slotting and the salary cap exist in ways that I think Elway is most accurately considered a player obtained in a true trade rather than the flopping picks case for the two young QBs where their acquisition is much more strongly linked to the up and downsides of taking a QB in the 1st round. Results after bye week, 1 W and 1 L from the 2 QBs who played (*1 W 2 Ls if you want to consider Eli as a drafted 1st rounder since he was acquired on during the draft). At any rate, things seem to be playing out roughly equal to the statistical record of the past. Peyton M, and Rex G, are the two remaining QBs who can replicate the feat of RoboQB. Manning looks somewhat dubious for accomplishing this task as now he must leave the friendly confines of the Dome and if the weather makes passing the ball difficult and forces the Indy D to be stout against the run I do not think many folks will be betting on them. Grossman looks like a better shot at making it through to the Big game though this is due to the weakness of the NFC for the most part. Rivers looks like a better shot if you want to ignore the technical facts but alot of this is thanks to LT and Merriman so we will see. Overall, since Eli has already gone down this season actually is a pretty good performance by 1st round draftees of bringing the team that picked them to the playoffs. However, as two of the 5 if one uses a liberal counting method are already heading home for the off-season once again locking up money and time on a QB rather than simply cherry picking a 1st drafted by someone else as the Ravens did with Dilfer and they are trying to do again this year with McBair appears to be a more sensible method of team building. This is interesting from a Bills perspective as the history of JP has demonstrated that drafting a QB in the 1st is no panacea and it seems to cause folks like TD to turn the reins over to this athlete before they are ready. We'll see what happens with the Bills as they and JP seem to have weathered the storm (so far) of the huge expectations fans place on a QB drafted in the which almost always seems to doom this player to not winning the SB. As a Bills fan I am very happy that RoboQB broke the ice for JP. Interesting post. I think you still need to take a QB in the first round if he has that kind of talent. The problem comes when these QBs don't live up to expectations even before they make the playoffs. I, for one, will be glad when I don't have to watch David Carr take another snap in the NFL. The guy is terrible. If you will remember, the Ravens have had a terrible QB situation, before and after the Cal QB they took in round #1. They tried Stoney Case, etc. etc.
sullim4 Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 I know that it's been said here before, but I'll repeat it - your posts are literally very unpleasant to read due to run-on sentences. It hurts my head to read them. You seem to have a lot of valuable knowledge to add, but your sentence structure is terrible. Please, please, please - limit your sentences to no more than two lines. My brain thanks you in advance!
apuszczalowski Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 Interesting post. I think you still need to take a QB in the first round if he has that kind of talent. The problem comes when these QBs don't live up to expectations even before they make the playoffs. I, for one, will be glad when I don't have to watch David Carr take another snap in the NFL. The guy is terrible. If you will remember, the Ravens have had a terrible QB situation, before and after the Cal QB they took in round #1. They tried Stoney Case, etc. etc. Theres far worse QB's in the league then Carr. Are you seriously saying Grossman is someone you would rather see making millions in the NFL?
justnzane Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 one does have to mention that Mcnabb before he got hurt was leading the Iggles to the playoffs, and Denver and Tennessee almost squeaked in to the playoffs with first round rookies. Then you have Palmer and Losman who almost made it in too this year. So far, First round QB's have been faring better since 2000 than the first round QB's of the '90's. Plus I do have to add that Pennington was drafted in the first round by the Jests. So you can argue that 6 first round QB's led the teams that they have been on since draft day to the playoffs this year.
Chilly Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 I think the whole argument that you have to draft a certain position at a certain pick is extremely underwhelming. What makes a good draft pick is the player that you select, not where you select him at or what position you select him at.
RLflutie7 Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 Theres far worse QB's in the league then Carr. Are you seriously saying Grossman is someone you would rather see making millions in the NFL? [/quote Name one NFL starter in the last five years that's been as bad as Carr. Why do some many people defend him so much. His stats are terrible. Grossman had a bang up playoff game last year against Carolina. It's the defense that didn't show up. BTW, when did I mention Grossman to begin with.
keepthefaith Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 In the past few seasons there has been some debate on TSW about the utility of choosing a QB in the first round of the draft. Arguments were made that we must take such actions as make sure we get Joey Harrington in the draft (we all know how that advice turned out as JH will go down in history as an answer to the trivia question which player was a bigger bust than even the Bills' Mike Williams). I countered with the argument that the stats simply indicate that no QB drafted in the 1st round had led the team that chose him to an SB win since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. The SB run of future organ donor Ben RoboQB has silenced a lot of this discussion. However, I have continued to follow the fate of teams led by a guy they drafted in the 1st round with interest in order to see if RoboQBs win is the start of a new day in the NFL harkening back to the days when the QB draft class of 83 and the marketing efforts of the NFL combined to make everyone feel they had to lock up much cap room and commitment into a QB or they had no chance at an SB win. It may also be the case that last year's Pitt win with a 1st round QB they chose at the helm may simply be the exception to the rule that presages another decade plus wait until a first round choice by a team leads them to an SB victory. The story so far is this: 12 teams in the playoffs 3 teams have QBs they drafted in the first (Pennington, Manning, Grossman *) *Since NYG and SD essentially flipped draft picks soon on draft day one might argue the number is 5 though technically it is not since neither team drafted the QB leading the team right now and the argument is that 1st round QBs can be found through trades so why take the cap hit of drafting them. Certainly the Elway case is quite different than the NYG/SD case as now slotting and the salary cap exist in ways that I think Elway is most accurately considered a player obtained in a true trade rather than the flopping picks case for the two young QBs where their acquisition is much more strongly linked to the up and downsides of taking a QB in the 1st round. Results after bye week, 1 W and 1 L from the 2 QBs who played (*1 W 2 Ls if you want to consider Eli as a drafted 1st rounder since he was acquired on during the draft). At any rate, things seem to be playing out roughly equal to the statistical record of the past. Peyton M, and Rex G, are the two remaining QBs who can replicate the feat of RoboQB. Manning looks somewhat dubious for accomplishing this task as now he must leave the friendly confines of the Dome and if the weather makes passing the ball difficult and forces the Indy D to be stout against the run I do not think many folks will be betting on them. Grossman looks like a better shot at making it through to the Big game though this is due to the weakness of the NFC for the most part. Rivers looks like a better shot if you want to ignore the technical facts but alot of this is thanks to LT and Merriman so we will see. Overall, since Eli has already gone down this season actually is a pretty good performance by 1st round draftees of bringing the team that picked them to the playoffs. However, as two of the 5 if one uses a liberal counting method are already heading home for the off-season once again locking up money and time on a QB rather than simply cherry picking a 1st drafted by someone else as the Ravens did with Dilfer and they are trying to do again this year with McBair appears to be a more sensible method of team building. This is interesting from a Bills perspective as the history of JP has demonstrated that drafting a QB in the 1st is no panacea and it seems to cause folks like TD to turn the reins over to this athlete before they are ready. We'll see what happens with the Bills as they and JP seem to have weathered the storm (so far) of the huge expectations fans place on a QB drafted in the which almost always seems to doom this player to not winning the SB. As a Bills fan I am very happy that RoboQB broke the ice for JP. Defense wins Championships.
gblakely14 Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 In the past few seasons there has been some debate on TSW about the utility of choosing a QB in the first round of the draft. Arguments were made that we must take such actions as make sure we get Joey Harrington in the draft (we all know how that advice turned out as JH will go down in history as an answer to the trivia question which player was a bigger bust than even the Bills' Mike Williams). I countered with the argument that the stats simply indicate that no QB drafted in the 1st round had led the team that chose him to an SB win since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. The SB run of future organ donor Ben RoboQB has silenced a lot of this discussion. However, I have continued to follow the fate of teams led by a guy they drafted in the 1st round with interest in order to see if RoboQBs win is the start of a new day in the NFL harkening back to the days when the QB draft class of 83 and the marketing efforts of the NFL combined to make everyone feel they had to lock up much cap room and commitment into a QB or they had no chance at an SB win. It may also be the case that last year's Pitt win with a 1st round QB they chose at the helm may simply be the exception to the rule that presages another decade plus wait until a first round choice by a team leads them to an SB victory. The story so far is this: 12 teams in the playoffs 3 teams have QBs they drafted in the first (Pennington, Manning, Grossman *) *Since NYG and SD essentially flipped draft picks soon on draft day one might argue the number is 5 though technically it is not since neither team drafted the QB leading the team right now and the argument is that 1st round QBs can be found through trades so why take the cap hit of drafting them. Certainly the Elway case is quite different than the NYG/SD case as now slotting and the salary cap exist in ways that I think Elway is most accurately considered a player obtained in a true trade rather than the flopping picks case for the two young QBs where their acquisition is much more strongly linked to the up and downsides of taking a QB in the 1st round. Results after bye week, 1 W and 1 L from the 2 QBs who played (*1 W 2 Ls if you want to consider Eli as a drafted 1st rounder since he was acquired on during the draft). At any rate, things seem to be playing out roughly equal to the statistical record of the past. Peyton M, and Rex G, are the two remaining QBs who can replicate the feat of RoboQB. Manning looks somewhat dubious for accomplishing this task as now he must leave the friendly confines of the Dome and if the weather makes passing the ball difficult and forces the Indy D to be stout against the run I do not think many folks will be betting on them. Grossman looks like a better shot at making it through to the Big game though this is due to the weakness of the NFC for the most part. Rivers looks like a better shot if you want to ignore the technical facts but alot of this is thanks to LT and Merriman so we will see. Overall, since Eli has already gone down this season actually is a pretty good performance by 1st round draftees of bringing the team that picked them to the playoffs. However, as two of the 5 if one uses a liberal counting method are already heading home for the off-season once again locking up money and time on a QB rather than simply cherry picking a 1st drafted by someone else as the Ravens did with Dilfer and they are trying to do again this year with McBair appears to be a more sensible method of team building. This is interesting from a Bills perspective as the history of JP has demonstrated that drafting a QB in the 1st is no panacea and it seems to cause folks like TD to turn the reins over to this athlete before they are ready. We'll see what happens with the Bills as they and JP seem to have weathered the storm (so far) of the huge expectations fans place on a QB drafted in the which almost always seems to doom this player to not winning the SB. As a Bills fan I am very happy that RoboQB broke the ice for JP. Maybe I am missing something, but dont Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers also count in this debate. I think it is trivial to say that since they were traded between teams 1 minute after Rivers was drafted that they dont count for some reason. But with including them you have 5 out of the 12 and both the top seed in the NFC and the top seed in the AFC with QBs that they drafted in the first round. I also know that your point is that no QB drafted in the first round has led the team that chose them to the SB since Aikman, before Big Ben last year, but it seems like a more relevant post would be just a general comment on first round QBs in general, and in that case you can throw Steve McNair in there as well. Bringing the number to 6 out of the 12.
ganesh Posted January 8, 2007 Posted January 8, 2007 Interesting post. I think you still need to take a QB in the first round if he has that kind of talent. The problem comes when these QBs don't live up to expectations even before they make the playoffs. I, for one, will be glad when I don't have to watch David Carr take another snap in the NFL. The guy is terrible. If you will remember, the Ravens have had a terrible QB situation, before and after the Cal QB they took in round #1. They tried Stoney Case, etc. etc. Since Super bowl they had had Chris Redmond, Tony Banks, Kyle Boller, Jeff Garcia and then Steve McNair.
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