My sense of where the 07 draft fits into our team building

[Pyrite Gal]

My sense is that there are different answers to this question depending upon which need you are trying to fill. Players like Mangold have shown that even for seemingly complex positions like C it is possible to find a 1st rounder who can start for your team right away.

 

However, despite the Bills finding several rookies capable of starting on a team that improved a lot and almost finished at .500 the performance of the Bills rookies as a group probably pushes the limits of what one can hope for but not expect of draft choices.

 

1. Whitner- expected to start and did so and performed at a level where he was second on the team in tackles and was chosen AFC rookie of the month early in his appearances. Very good job and Bills fans are reasonably hopeful for his future.

 

However, as opposing teams began to figure out the Tampa 2 scheme we use the safety plau was a midseason weakness to pick on and Whitner had some quick learning to do though it looks like he is learning. Clearly an player of high impact for the Bills some express some doubt about him as an NFL impact player and with 20/20 hindsight folks question whether we should have drafted in another way.

 

2. McCargo- went on IR early in the season and though in terms of absolutes his first year was not worth trading up to get him, the jury is still way out on this draftee and we will need to see him play for a year or two before any reasonable conclusion is drawn. Some are even talking about dedicating our 1st rounder to a run stuffer though this would mean a pretty significant number of DL picks in the first round since the moving van pulled up and this team as rebuilt starting with the 02 draft.

 

3. Youbouty- The jury is still way out on him as he missed a significant amount of training and PT due to the death of his mother and him being the oldest man left in the family. He did finally break into the Bills line-up and actually was trusted enough to start as Jauron/Fewell decided to give a surprising look to our D that game.

 

Simpson- a big surprise in terms of success as he actually quickly won a starting job with his play and old age ending TVs career as a Bill as he went on a limited version of IR. He also started impressively but team with Whitner to be a mid-season target for teams who diagnosed our safeties as biting on intial run fakes and then covering WRs late.

 

He seemed to get it together as the season wore on and he showed some ballhawk capability which will be interesting as he gets more time.

 

4. Williams- a very nice draft pick as he became everything Mccargo was supposed to be and did this as a second day pick without the cost of trading up to get him. He did start, but clearly the Bills could be run on up the middle through our DTs spots.

 

5. Butler- This appears to be a case where the interviews and discussions made a difference. Butler performed well in college and there was some talk of him ending his final year if he played as he appeared capable of being a first day choice. Yet, in a game late in the season he commited a completely low class act of striking a unsuspecting opponent a vicious non-football blow.

He was suspended for a game and correctly villified. Apparently his discuassions with the Bills braintrust and the testimony of folks who knew him convinced even the Bills who were emphasizing character in their rhetoric that his choice was a reasonable one and his low class act was an aberration,

 

In terms of performance we really did not see much this year actually and he had his chances since a lower pick made the starting line-up in the OL. However, he did get into the game for a look against the Pack and then the Ravens and the jury is still out.

 

6. Ellison- broke into the starting line-up with injuries to TKO and Crowell and held his own though like almost all rookies he was a weaker point that OCs could pick on.

 

7. Pennington- impressive performance as his play allowed him to break into the starting line-up when the Bills shuffled their OL mid-season as Peters play mandated a move to the crucial LT spot which allowed Gandy who did a surprising adequate job at LT last year which unfortunately he was not capable of building upon. Gandy shifted to G which allowed the Bills to sit journeyman Reyes who was used up. He is not notably very good (yetr) but Pennington's rooki play provides hope for the future.

 

8. Merz- Got some PT on ST and actually got a game start against NE but did not perform well enough to stick in the lineup.

 

So what do these results say?

 

1. A tremendous draft job led by Marv. Of the 8 picks all proved good enough to get onto the field. This can easily happen when a team is simply using regular season to try players out. However, these rookies had an impact on a team which improved from an awful 5-11 to a still inadequate 7-9 where this team was certainly not good enough to win but still there were semi-serious scenarios for them even making the playoffs in the next to last week.

 

Well over half this group commanded a start on a team whose record simply improved a lot against competition which did well this year. In fact, half this class ended up as consistent starters on this improving team.

 

2. The work was not perfect all though as they stretched to get McCargo who simply did not produce in his rookie year. Gowever, it is way to early for anyone to call this disappointing player (so far) a bust as a big part of his non-performance was that he ended up on IR before the middle of the season.

 

The other irony here is that a real world proof that the Bills expended resources on him they did not need to spend to get the level of performance they got at DT is that it actually was second day pick Williams who ended up holding the starting DT role (though in the end this D got run on up the middle with him having this spot so it is both true they got the same level of play from a fourth rounder they not unreasonalbly could have expected from a 1st rounder (starts games but is learning), Kudos to the Marv led braintrust for getting consistent (though not adequate IMHO) starts from a second day pick rookie, though this amplifies that trading up for McCargo ended up being a reach though this assessment was not really predictable though it true in hindsight.

 

3. It is doubtful that a draft class is going to do much better than this one did (as measured by the number of starts and PT they logged on an improved and improving team. The interesting thing is that given this very good performance for a draft class it stands as a demonstration that rookies as a whole are simply going to be inadequate to get you to the playoffs.

 

I am pleased with this draft class because I think they are a great investment which bodes well for the Bills in the future. Yet, I think that this demonstrates on the whole that one would be foolish to think that a draft class as a whole is going to contribute significantly to remaking your team or key units to allow you to make the playoffs,

 

Overall, i think that a good sraft class may provide you with a couple of players who fill in nicely to allow you to go over the top or happens to contain the one or two per seasons players who are special and can lead the team right out of the box. However, though one always aspires to get this player it strikes me as foolish to count upon or expect that to happen.

 

For the 2007 draft, it seems reasonable to expect that our first round choice will be a starter and if we get lucky someone drafted later might step up to be a starter.

 

However, in terms of what we want to count upon and plan for in 2007 it is going to be player development of folks on the roster:

 

1. Peters may step up to be one of the best and I think he can,

 

2. JP seems ready for a break out year where he establishes himself as a solid NFL QB,

 

3. the Bills should stay the course on Willis and if he begins to show he can be the breakout player his college days before his injury indicated he might be show him the money but if not let him walk and acquiring a future primetime RB this off-season is a useful thing to do as having 2 working RBs is the current trend in the NFL.

 

4. Fairchild needs to fulfill the promise of designing an O that truly is a St. L type threat. However, he will need the expected continued growth of JP, better utilization of WM as a receiver. and potentially additional quality play from the WRs to do this. Our existing WRs seem to have the skillset (Evans progressed and produced nicely and is a legit #1, PP had a nice year as a #2 but utilizing him as a possesion receiver does not seem to be good use of the speed he apparently still has, Parrish showed flashes of brilliance but performed and/or was used inconsistently, Reed showed some nice play at times which indicates to me he could be a stud #3 WR with the experience to savage zones and RB toughness but he is stretch still to occupy the #2 slot). We either need real development from these 4 from Fairchild or get some more talent. The TE position is simply not a threat and I wish Royal for the occaisional good work he showed had attracted attention from good blocking to spring WM rather than the occaisional nice TD or failure to get a foot down.

 

On D, assuming NC does not agree to an extension (the failure to reach agreement yet is probably the most telling sign they will never reach agreement) and given Marv apparently promised not to tag him again then development of Youbouty is critical. The lack of a reasonable#2 MLB on the depth chart mandates resigning Fletch and rehab of Crowell and ongoing rehsb of TKO is of import.

 

The holes that I see are getting better run stopping out of the DL, another stabilizing force on the OL, a run stuffer on the DL. a back-up MLB who can develop into a future starter assuming F-B re-signs, some mutant to play TE in a positive way in this O, DB depth at the level needed depending upon whether NC re-signs.

 

Overall, given the sense that I think we can count on one starter immediately and one player to grow into being a contributing starter this season (an indicator of this Marv led draft really producing unreasonably well for this improving team), I see the draft producing one or two players that we should count on and plan for.

 

Given the Bills emphasis on quality, waiting until after there are reactions and results from the Combine seems to be the most reasonable way to approach the draft (though us fans will make all sorts of unreasonable predictions based on our favorites from the college ranks).

 

The ultimate selection will actually be dictated by NPA IMHO so even more so than in the past where we had a top 10 choice and could estimate with some accuracy which of a couple of choices to meet our clear needs for a great player we would fill. However, given that we are going to get around the 12th best player waiting to see how this draft plays out seems most prudent.

 

My guess is that we will most likely find a stabilizing OL force at this pick and that FA is actually a better place to go to fill any of our needs rather than the draft.

[Buffan00]

My sense is that there are different answers to this question depending upon which need you are trying to fill. Players like Mangold have shown that even for seemingly complex positions like C it is possible to find a 1st rounder who can start for your team right away.

 

However, despite the Bills finding several rookies capable of starting on a team that improved a lot and almost finished at .500 the performance of the Bills rookies as a group probably pushes the limits of what one can hope for but not expect of draft choices.

 

1. Whitner- expected to start and did so and performed at a level where he was second on the team in tackles and was chosen AFC rookie of the month early in his appearances. Very good job and Bills fans are reasonably hopeful for his future.

 

However, as opposing teams began to figure out the Tampa 2 scheme we use the safety plau was a midseason weakness to pick on and Whitner had some quick learning to do though it looks like he is learning. Clearly an player of high impact for the Bills some express some doubt about him as an NFL impact player and with 20/20 hindsight folks question whether we should have drafted in another way.

 

2. McCargo- went on IR early in the season and though in terms of absolutes his first year was not worth trading up to get him, the jury is still way out on this draftee and we will need to see him play for a year or two before any reasonable conclusion is drawn. Some are even talking about dedicating our 1st rounder to a run stuffer though this would mean a pretty significant number of DL picks in the first round since the moving van pulled up and this team as rebuilt starting with the 02 draft.

 

3. Youbouty- The jury is still way out on him as he missed a significant amount of training and PT due to the death of his mother and him being the oldest man left in the family. He did finally break into the Bills line-up and actually was trusted enough to start as Jauron/Fewell decided to give a surprising look to our D that game.

 

Simpson- a big surprise in terms of success as he actually quickly won a starting job with his play and old age ending TVs career as a Bill as he went on a limited version of IR. He also started impressively but team with Whitner to be a mid-season target for teams who diagnosed our safeties as biting on intial run fakes and then covering WRs late.

 

He seemed to get it together as the season wore on and he showed some ballhawk capability which will be interesting as he gets more time.

 

4. Williams- a very nice draft pick as he became everything Mccargo was supposed to be and did this as a second day pick without the cost of trading up to get him. He did start, but clearly the Bills could be run on up the middle through our DTs spots.

 

5. Butler- This appears to be a case where the interviews and discussions made a difference. Butler performed well in college and there was some talk of him ending his final year if he played as he appeared capable of being a first day choice. Yet, in a game late in the season he commited a completely low class act of striking a unsuspecting opponent a vicious non-football blow.

He was suspended for a game and correctly villified. Apparently his discuassions with the Bills braintrust and the testimony of folks who knew him convinced even the Bills who were emphasizing character in their rhetoric that his choice was a reasonable one and his low class act was an aberration,

 

In terms of performance we really did not see much this year actually and he had his chances since a lower pick made the starting line-up in the OL. However, he did get into the game for a look against the Pack and then the Ravens and the jury is still out.

 

6. Ellison- broke into the starting line-up with injuries to TKO and Crowell and held his own though like almost all rookies he was a weaker point that OCs could pick on.

 

7. Pennington- impressive performance as his play allowed him to break into the starting line-up when the Bills shuffled their OL mid-season as Peters play mandated a move to the crucial LT spot which allowed Gandy who did a surprising adequate job at LT last year which unfortunately he was not capable of building upon. Gandy shifted to G which allowed the Bills to sit journeyman Reyes who was used up. He is not notably very good (yetr) but Pennington's rooki play provides hope for the future.

 

8. Merz- Got some PT on ST and actually got a game start against NE but did not perform well enough to stick in the lineup.

 

So what do these results say?

 

1. A tremendous draft job led by Marv. Of the 8 picks all proved good enough to get onto the field. This can easily happen when a team is simply using regular season to try players out. However, these rookies had an impact on a team which improved from an awful 5-11 to a still inadequate 7-9 where this team was certainly not good enough to win but still there were semi-serious scenarios for them even making the playoffs in the next to last week.

 

Well over half this group commanded a start on a team whose record simply improved a lot against competition which did well this year. In fact, half this class ended up as consistent starters on this improving team.

 

2. The work was not perfect all though as they stretched to get McCargo who simply did not produce in his rookie year. Gowever, it is way to early for anyone to call this disappointing player (so far) a bust as a big part of his non-performance was that he ended up on IR before the middle of the season.

 

The other irony here is that a real world proof that the Bills expended resources on him they did not need to spend to get the level of performance they got at DT is that it actually was second day pick Williams who ended up holding the starting DT role (though in the end this D got run on up the middle with him having this spot so it is both true they got the same level of play from a fourth rounder they not unreasonalbly could have expected from a 1st rounder (starts games but is learning), Kudos to the Marv led braintrust for getting consistent (though not adequate IMHO) starts from a second day pick rookie, though this amplifies that trading up for McCargo ended up being a reach though this assessment was not really predictable though it true in hindsight.

 

3. It is doubtful that a draft class is going to do much better than this one did (as measured by the number of starts and PT they logged on an improved and improving team. The interesting thing is that given this very good performance for a draft class it stands as a demonstration that rookies as a whole are simply going to be inadequate to get you to the playoffs.

 

I am pleased with this draft class because I think they are a great investment which bodes well for the Bills in the future. Yet, I think that this demonstrates on the whole that one would be foolish to think that a draft class as a whole is going to contribute significantly to remaking your team or key units to allow you to make the playoffs,

 

Overall, i think that a good sraft class may provide you with a couple of players who fill in nicely to allow you to go over the top or happens to contain the one or two per seasons players who are special and can lead the team right out of the box. However, though one always aspires to get this player it strikes me as foolish to count upon or expect that to happen.

 

For the 2007 draft, it seems reasonable to expect that our first round choice will be a starter and if we get lucky someone drafted later might step up to be a starter.

 

However, in terms of what we want to count upon and plan for in 2007 it is going to be player development of folks on the roster:

 

1. Peters may step up to be one of the best and I think he can,

 

2. JP seems ready for a break out year where he establishes himself as a solid NFL QB,

 

3. the Bills should stay the course on Willis and if he begins to show he can be the breakout player his college days before his injury indicated he might be show him the money but if not let him walk and acquiring a future primetime RB this off-season is a useful thing to do as having 2 working RBs is the current trend in the NFL.

 

4. Fairchild needs to fulfill the promise of designing an O that truly is a St. L type threat. However, he will need the expected continued growth of JP, better utilization of WM as a receiver. and potentially additional quality play from the WRs to do this. Our existing WRs seem to have the skillset (Evans progressed and produced nicely and is a legit #1, PP had a nice year as a #2 but utilizing him as a possesion receiver does not seem to be good use of the speed he apparently still has, Parrish showed flashes of brilliance but performed and/or was used inconsistently, Reed showed some nice play at times which indicates to me he could be a stud #3 WR with the experience to savage zones and RB toughness but he is stretch still to occupy the #2 slot). We either need real development from these 4 from Fairchild or get some more talent. The TE position is simply not a threat and I wish Royal for the occaisional good work he showed had attracted attention from good blocking to spring WM rather than the occaisional nice TD or failure to get a foot down.

 

On D, assuming NC does not agree to an extension (the failure to reach agreement yet is probably the most telling sign they will never reach agreement) and given Marv apparently promised not to tag him again then development of Youbouty is critical. The lack of a reasonable#2 MLB on the depth chart mandates resigning Fletch and rehab of Crowell and ongoing rehsb of TKO is of import.

 

The holes that I see are getting better run stopping out of the DL, another stabilizing force on the OL, a run stuffer on the DL. a back-up MLB who can develop into a future starter assuming F-B re-signs, some mutant to play TE in a positive way in this O, DB depth at the level needed depending upon whether NC re-signs.

 

Overall, given the sense that I think we can count on one starter immediately and one player to grow into being a contributing starter this season (an indicator of this Marv led draft really producing unreasonably well for this improving team), I see the draft producing one or two players that we should count on and plan for.

 

Given the Bills emphasis on quality, waiting until after there are reactions and results from the Combine seems to be the most reasonable way to approach the draft (though us fans will make all sorts of unreasonable predictions based on our favorites from the college ranks).

 

The ultimate selection will actually be dictated by NPA IMHO so even more so than in the past where we had a top 10 choice and could estimate with some accuracy which of a couple of choices to meet our clear needs for a great player we would fill. However, given that we are going to get around the 12th best player waiting to see how this draft plays out seems most prudent.

 

My guess is that we will most likely find a stabilizing OL force at this pick and that FA is actually a better place to go to fill any of our needs rather than the draft.

You should write a book.

[Mike formerly from Florida]

6. Ellison- broke into the starting line-up with injuries to TKO and Crowell and held his own though like almost all rookies he was a weaker point that OCs could pick on.

 

OCs picked on him all right...with very little success. You vastly underrate this kid as he has fantastic instincts and made plays all over the field. He is very fast (albeit a little too light--but should gain a few pounds and get stronger in the offseason). He will start next year. No one will beat him out.

[obie_wan]

So what do these results say?

 

 

3. It is doubtful that a draft class is going to do much better than this one did (as measured by the number of starts and PT they logged on an improved and improving team. The interesting thing is that given this very good performance for a draft class it stands as a demonstration that rookies as a whole are simply going to be inadequate to get you to the playoffs.

 

I am pleased with this draft class because I think they are a great investment which bodes well for the Bills in the future. Yet, I think that this demonstrates on the whole that one would be foolish to think that a draft class as a whole is going to contribute significantly to remaking your team or key units to allow you to make the playoffs,

 

Overall, i think that a good sraft class may provide you with a couple of players who fill in nicely to allow you to go over the top or happens to contain the one or two per seasons players who are special and can lead the team right out of the box. However, though one always aspires to get this player it strikes me as foolish to count upon or expect that to happen.

 

For the 2007 draft, it seems reasonable to expect that our first round choice will be a starter and if we get lucky someone drafted later might step up to be a starter.

 

H.

 

do you read what you write?

 

how can you explain that 5 of 9 picks started for the Bills then conclude that the draft will "contribute significantly to remaking your team"?

 

Good teams find players in the draft in all rounds. Bills fans have been subjected to Teflon Tom's piss poor record in finding any talent in the draft so that our expectations have been seriously deflated.

 

by the way, Fairchild was not brought here to brinjg the Ram offense. The team is being built to run the ball to control the tempo and pass the ball to score and get large chunks of yardage.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Nicely done, Pyrite . A minor detail you should fix, though: we drafted 9 players, not 8...you forgot to number Simpson in your write-up.

 

 

All I'll add to your thread is that I would classify our draft into 3 tiers:

 

1st tier, the definite starters going into next year: Whitner, Simpson, Pennington

 

2nd tier, potential starters for next year, partly depending on which direction this team goes in the offseason: McCargo, Ellison, Youboty

 

3rd tier, very likely to just be backups next year: Williams, Merz, Butler

 

With this classification, I'd say at this point Marv did very well with his draft. All 9 made the team, and 7 of the 9 started at some point this season. Plus next year, it's very possible that 6 of the 9 could be starters!

[hootie1]

How do you figure MCCargo over Wliiams as a potential starter? McCargo plays behind Triplett, who seems pretty entrenched; whereas Willams has already surpassed Anderson.

 

Nicely done, Pyrite . A minor detail you should fix, though: we drafted 9 players, not 8...you forgot to number Simpson in your write-up.

All I'll add to your thread is that I would classify our draft into 3 tiers:

 

1st tier, the definite starters going into next year: Whitner, Simpson, Pennington

 

2nd tier, potential starters for next year, partly depending on which direction this team goes in the offseason: McCargo, Ellison, Youboty

 

3rd tier, very likely to just be backups next year: Williams, Merz, Butler

 

With this classification, I'd say at this point Marv did very well with his draft. All 9 made the team, and 7 of the 9 started at some point this season. Plus next year, it's very possible that 6 of the 9 could be starters!

[Bills Fan888]

You should write a book.

I have to agree with you there. Longest post I have ever seen. It was good too.

[Pyrite Gal]

I have to agree with you there. Longest post I have ever seen. It was good too.

 

Thanks. I usually use the writing to think things out as I write and also as I sit on conference calls waiting for my part in the agenda to occur. Because of this often contradictory things can pop up as I am thinking things through (and even change my mind) as I write and also how much attention I am paying to what I am writing varies with the amount of multi-tasking and paying attention to off agenda items occuring on the call.

 

In addition, long posts may well be written over a couple of days in different calls which leads to length and sometimes to contradiction.

[BADOLBILZ]

However, despite the Bills finding several rookies capable of starting on a team that improved a lot and almost finished at .500 the performance of the Bills rookies as a group probably pushes the limits of what one can hope for but not expect of draft choices.

 

You give the rookie players way too much credit. This team won 7 games mostly because of good coaching and the strong play and relative health of the good players that were already here. Without A LOT of protection by conservative coaching, the rookies could have been a key reason for a 2-14 finish.

 

The rookies did contribute, but for the most part they were just on the field because there were a ton of jobs up for grabs in preseason after an offseason gutting of an already weak team. Pennington was OK, but we'll see if he can go from "good for a seventh round rookie" to actually good. Whitner was pretty good, which was at least expected. Simpson was regarded as a steal, and he played pretty well, but he was late arriving very often and benefited from not being burned by the opponents best WR because NC was putting a blanket on the opponents top deep threat. He made very few plays in the second half of the season, he's promising, but not a revelation by any means. Kyle Williams is a good player, a definite value, but everything they expected McCargo to be? No, I think they were hoping for PASS RUSH help from McCargo. A lot of tackles, but not much push. Ellison was good in pass protection, a liability against the run. McCargo and Youboty were disappointments.

 

They certainly got production and some good play from a number of their draft picks, but I don't think they pushed the limits of what one can hope for when you are talking about a team that had A LOT of holes and playing opportunities to offer. This season the league is full of teams that received as much or more help from their draft picks, and a lot of those teams were actually winners.

[The Big Cat]

Nicely done, Pyrite . A minor detail you should fix, though: we drafted 9 players, not 8...you forgot to number Simpson in your write-up.

All I'll add to your thread is that I would classify our draft into 3 tiers:

 

1st tier, the definite starters going into next year: Whitner, Simpson, Pennington

 

2nd tier, potential starters for next year, partly depending on which direction this team goes in the offseason: McCargo, Ellison, Youboty

 

3rd tier, very likely to just be backups next year: Williams, Merz, Butler

 

With this classification, I'd say at this point Marv did very well with his draft. All 9 made the team, and 7 of the 9 started at some point this season. Plus next year, it's very possible that 6 of the 9 could be starters!

 

I think Williams deserved to be bumped into "2nd tier" and I also believe that we might see more offensive than defensive picks in the draft which will include large interior OLmen in early rounds, a shifty RB in later rounds, and when those needs have been filled, a LB or two in the final rounds. This, ofcourse, assumes we can retain Nate. If Marv and company can manage that, it's time to build an offense which can keep the defense on the sidelines thus maximizing the relentless speed attack.

[finknottle]

I do think this was a good draft for us, but I'd caution anyone against reading too much into a draft based on how many starters you get. The easiest move in the world for a new GM/coach pair is to declare all the hold-over players crap and cut them (so the coach gets a pass on the year) and then play all the rookies (so the GM looks like a drafting genius).

 

It's a management thing.

[Pyrite Gal]

I do think this was a good draft for us, but I'd caution anyone against reading too much into a draft based on how many starters you get. The easiest move in the world for a new GM/coach pair is to declare all the hold-over players crap and cut them (so the coach gets a pass on the year) and then play all the rookies (so the GM looks like a drafting genius).

 

It's a management thing.

 

I agree that merely because players are starting that dictates caution about getting too excited.

 

The actual occurence though that indicates that caution is correctly joined with optimism is that the actual results on the field were much improved over 2005.

 

Its simply one thing to choose to start a bunch of your own guys because you can and to have them go 3-13 and to claim you are excited because they played hard and that bodes well for the future but another to play your rookies and have the objective record improve.

[Pyrite Gal]

You give the rookie players way too much credit. This team won 7 games mostly because of good coaching and the strong play and relative health of the good players that were already here. Without A LOT of protection by conservative coaching, the rookies could have been a key reason for a 2-14 finish.

 

The rookies did contribute, but for the most part they were just on the field because there were a ton of jobs up for grabs in preseason after an offseason gutting of an already weak team. Pennington was OK, but we'll see if he can go from "good for a seventh round rookie" to actually good. Whitner was pretty good, which was at least expected. Simpson was regarded as a steal, and he played pretty well, but he was late arriving very often and benefited from not being burned by the opponents best WR because NC was putting a blanket on the opponents top deep threat. He made very few plays in the second half of the season, he's promising, but not a revelation by any means. Kyle Williams is a good player, a definite value, but everything they expected McCargo to be? No, I think they were hoping for PASS RUSH help from McCargo. A lot of tackles, but not much push. Ellison was good in pass protection, a liability against the run. McCargo and Youboty were disappointments.

 

They certainly got production and some good play from a number of their draft picks, but I don't think they pushed the limits of what one can hope for when you are talking about a team that had A LOT of holes and playing opportunities to offer. This season the league is full of teams that received as much or more help from their draft picks, and a lot of those teams were actually winners.

 

I'm not sure of the point you are making since it seems at least to divide the play of the team and the management of that team into separate categories as though these were independent items when actually they are so interlinked that a division of these two things based on trying to understand things or do better analysis seems to ignore reality.

 

This is at best since at worst the division you make seems contradictory at worse.

 

Specifically, are you saying that if only the rookies were better players (due to greater talent or more experience) then the Bills braintrust could have/would have managed the team in a better way to produce more wins?

 

In many ways I hope you are right since this implies a strong endorsement on your part of the Bills management style and intellect and bodes well for the future as these players who were rookies last year will play next year with a year's experience and the management should be able to use the winning style which you seem to indicate these rookies held them back from.

 

On the face of it, the Bills improved their record from 5-11 to 7-9. A two game improvement in record in this NFL is in fact quite doable (the Ravens for example turned it around even moreso) but actually is quite substantial.

 

This seems particularly true when one considers the real world results accomplished by the Bills opponents. As it turned out, the 7-9 record was accomplished not against a bunch of patsies (bad patsies not the NE Patsies) but against 6 playoffs teams making half their 16 games against teams which made the playoffs while mathematically only 12 of the 32 teams made the playoffs.

 

The Bills improved their record by two wins while playing 6 of the top 6 seeds in their conference and you add in the Bears whom they faced who actually were the top seed in the NFC.

 

One cannot have it both ways. Either the real world record accomplished by these rookies was quite good or it was not.

 

I think that their accomplishment does push the limits of what one can expect from a team which started so many rookies right from the start in so many games.

 

If not then specifically what teams like the Ravens who really improved their record saw this accomplishment occur from starting rookies the Bills amount or was ample use of Ngata about it for them? Not following other teams as closely I do not know and if you or others do it would be quite educational.

[Nanker]

Sticking to the Post Topic: "My sense of where the 07 draft fits into our team building" I'd say that it's an inevitable and integral component of building our team. We need management to find 5-7 new starters for 2007. At a minimum that would be 2 O Linemen and a FB. It would also be nice to have a TE capable of catching a pass.

 

I'd also like to see a new RB in town and a tall Wide Receiver with "hands" and speed.

 

On D we need a fire plug on the line and a new Middle Linebacker. Marv drafted his secondary in '06, though he could get some developmental players for future depth.

 

Marv finds 5-7 new starters this off season and it'll be a success.

Most likely 3-5 of them would come from the draft.

That's my sense of where the 07 draft fits into our team building.

[BADOLBILZ]

I'm not sure of the point you are making since it seems at least to divide the play of the team and the management of that team into separate categories as though these were independent items when actually they are so interlinked that a division of these two things based on trying to understand things or do better analysis seems to ignore reality.

 

This is at best since at worst the division you make seems contradictory at worse.

 

Specifically, are you saying that if only the rookies were better players (due to greater talent or more experience) then the Bills braintrust could have/would have managed the team in a better way to produce more wins?

 

In many ways I hope you are right since this implies a strong endorsement on your part of the Bills management style and intellect and bodes well for the future as these players who were rookies last year will play next year with a year's experience and the management should be able to use the winning style which you seem to indicate these rookies held them back from.

 

On the face of it, the Bills improved their record from 5-11 to 7-9. A two game improvement in record in this NFL is in fact quite doable (the Ravens for example turned it around even moreso) but actually is quite substantial.

 

This seems particularly true when one considers the real world results accomplished by the Bills opponents. As it turned out, the 7-9 record was accomplished not against a bunch of patsies (bad patsies not the NE Patsies) but against 6 playoffs teams making half their 16 games against teams which made the playoffs while mathematically only 12 of the 32 teams made the playoffs.

 

The Bills improved their record by two wins while playing 6 of the top 6 seeds in their conference and you add in the Bears whom they faced who actually were the top seed in the NFC.

 

One cannot have it both ways. Either the real world record accomplished by these rookies was quite good or it was not.

 

I think that their accomplishment does push the limits of what one can expect from a team which started so many rookies right from the start in so many games.

 

If not then specifically what teams like the Ravens who really improved their record saw this accomplishment occur from starting rookies the Bills amount or was ample use of Ngata about it for them? Not following other teams as closely I do not know and if you or others do it would be quite educational.

 

My point was that you are blowing out of proportion the performance of this rookie class. It was good, but hardly "pushing the limits" of what could be expected when you consider all of the first day picks the Bills had and the vast amount of playing time available to them. Donahoe's first class also came into a situation with a lot of playing time available and played far better, IMO.

 

Those Bills didn't have the #8 overall pick in that draft and they didn't have four 1st day picks coming into that draft either. The difference in record of those two teams? A)Better coaching and B)Good veterans made most of the plays this year. With Donahoe's first class, you knew they had scored a bunch of core players by seasons end. A shutdown corner(remember Clements on Jimmy Smith on MNF?), a lead RB in Henry, a pass rushing RDE in Schobel and a fantastic RT in Jennings. You can't say that about this years bunch. Simpson and Whitner were the standouts, but they rarely flashed dominating talent. The rest......they fall more into the category of a guy like Justin Bannan from that first Donahoe draft. They got snaps, they made a few plays and showed promise, but they didn't distinguish themselves as likely long term solutions.

 

Yet I sense a growing belief among Bills fans that now the RT, WLB and DT positions manned by Pennington, Ellison and Williams are now looking set for next year. IT WASN'T THIS DRAFT that got this team going in a positive direction. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if in two years we are looking back at this draft and wondering how the Bills could have that many high picks and only come away with a couple decent safeties and a reserve DT. The Bills draft really warrants either a B grade or an incomplete grade, not because it takes 3 years to judge a draft, but mainly because day one was a disappointment( can anyone honestly say they'd be happy if they knew Whitner was the only one of the three who would see any playing time) and day two had pleasant surprises (getting Simpson and Williams who were both projected as first day picks, and the contributions of Ellison and Pennington). You would hope for an A grade from such a strong draft, early picks in each round, and an extra third rounder to boot.

 

And to answer the obvious, YES, if the Bills rookies were better players the coaching staff could have managed them to more wins. The playoffs are full of teams that received significant contributions from rookies. How many game changing plays were actually made by the Bills crop of rookies? Very few. And do you think the Bills were the only ones getting rookie help? They by no means set the standard this year. Some teams played more rookies, some teams won more with rookies playing a lot, and at least one team did both. It was a very rich draft. A big run stuffing DT like Ngata would little doubt have helped a porous, overmatched DT position, and another SS could have sufficed instead of Whitner. But you can go thru practically every round and find players the Bills coulda'/shoulda' picked. I'm not going to talk hindsight, but foresight is the Bills job, when this years rookies get more responsibility laid at their feet we will see if Modrak had any foresight or if a guy like Ellison turns into a Brandon Spoon or Pennington into a Robert Hicks. Again, the point is, that you are blowing out of proportion the contributions of the Bills rookies.

[Pyrite Gal]

BADOL- Looking at your post and back at my original, I think that I didn't understand the point you were making because we are talking about different things.

 

In my original post, the key point I was jumping off from was where I d

said:

 

the performance of the Bills rookies as a group probably pushes the limits of what one can hope for but not expect of draft choices.

 

From this perspective I agree that the production from the first day choices (Whitner, McCargo and Youbouty) was disappointing, but this fact is reduced to mere draft second guessing for those of us primarily driven by how is this year's squad performing, due to the unexpected ability of second day choice Williams to hold down a starting role at DT on a team which produced an improved record record.

 

While one can clearly second guess the details of this Marv led draft team because McCargo did not produce at a level a 1st rounder is normally expected to produce, however, from the team W/L perspective, this mistake is balanced out by a second day choice at DT actually producing at a level that would have been an OK year (not great at all since we got run on alot) for McCargo. Marv (and his charges) deserve bad marks for blowing the trade up choice (so far) but as the draft is fairly much of a crapshoot anyway with even good pickers blowing some picks badly, it really is of a minor concern except to the extent it impacts W/L and given that in the very same draft he found a DT on the second day who met the 1st rounder expectation of starting his first year it seems to be a lesser concern. This is particularly true since despite the draft picks failings, this team improved overall so its not as good as it woulda/shoulda/coulda have been but it really is a point of glaring concern to draft and fantasy junkies and a mistake that for the most part balances out in terms of W/L. While many draft gurus may think these are the same things they simply are not in the real world.

 

Knowledgable folks about the draft stock (which I think you are judging from your previous posts) would certainly be correct in pointing out that the Marv led draft certainly could have done better with a different pick than McCargo (and obviously with the resources uses to get him in a trade). However, since the draft is merely an amusement for me and the means to an end of is the team improving the details while important are simply overwhelmed by the reality of events.

 

It is in this measure of events where this draft was a quite good one (so far) even though the details may be true in terms of which player might you pick where.

 

This draft pushes the envelope of what one can reasonably expect actually because of the failings in production of the 1st day picks. Please correct me if I am wrong as you likely no far more about the broad draft than I do, but it seems to me to beyond any normal expectations that a team would produce 4 regular starters from a 9 person draft (Whitner, Simpson, Williams, Pennington all not only started a majority of their games but started the final game and thus go into offpseason as the heir apparent at their position). Not only did the draft produce these 4 definite starters (pending off-season acquisitions) but in addition, 2 other players who got starts due to injury (Youbouty, Ellison).

 

You are right that an HC can start any schmuck he wants if he wants to look at them or to try to pump up his own regime. However, the fact this 06 team improved over the 05 team has some significance in that the rookies we started simply were part of improving the results.

 

My points can certainly be debunked by a more knowledgable watcher. However, I think that my thoughts are most clearly shown to be wrong not by the mere opinion of a viewer but given that this team improved with the rookies playing a key role, I simply state that our results pushed the outside of the envelope in terms of expectations as if you know of a lot of other teams that improved their record when 4 of the rookies selected got starts in a majority of their games or that 2/3 of the picks got starts at all on this team which improved its record.

 

The fact that there was so little production from 2 of 3 first day choices is interesting to those who are most focused on the draft. However, for those of us who are most impressed with results, the fact this team could improve its W/L even with 2 of 3 picks on the first day producing less than expected results is quite impressive.

 

Sure the draft could have been done better and Mel Kiper may be rolling over in his underweae, but I will take a team which fails in 2 of of its 3 first day choice but improves their W/L.

 

The draft is important but in the end its an important sidelight to the real thing which is important which is W/L.

[Bill from NYC]

The draft is important but in the end its an important sidelight to the real thing which is important which is W/L.

 

This is of course true, but just a little bit misleading in my respectful opinion.

 

Because of the huge cap increase due to the new CBA, I think we will see less and less quality free agents. I don't expect teams to release players after 6/1 either as we have seen in the past to create cap room, at least not good players. Really, it started last season. There was a visible lack of good UFAs, and a guard signed for 52 million dollars. This year, the are really only a couple of big name players out there, and there is still time for a guy like Freeney (or even Nate) to sign with his current team.

 

The above make the draft even more important than it was in the past imo. It really does take a few years to evaluate a draft. Nobody disputes this, but a case still could be made that the 2nd day picks "saved the day" for Levy in a manner of speaking.

The Bills had 4 first day picks including a #8, and came away with a safety who appears to be good, a DT with a history of injury who is injured again, and a corner who saw almost no playing time. This imo is far from good or even acceptable, at least for the time being.

 

As far as coaching, it was obviously improved. I am the most impressed by Fairchild, assuming he was the one who kept JP in the pocket. This imo taught him how to be an NFL QB. He already knew from college how to run for his life. Now, he is that much closer to being polished. This won us the extra games this year, and will win us more in 07.

Another factor in the 2 more wins was of course Jason Peters. He has the potential to be a superstar, and is already a very good player. Amazing the difference that a left tackle makes, wouldn't you say?