My thoughts on RFAs

[WVUFootball29]

You know I always read and hear about people criticizing the idea of going after RFAs because a team would have to give up a draft pick. Personally, I think RFAs for second day picks, or even late first day picks is in some cases a better idea than gambling on a rookie right out of college.

 

Now hear me out on this for a second. You know as well I as I do there is no sure thing when it comes to the NFL Draft. It's a crap shoot, especially on day 2. In my opinion it is actually a safer bet to spend those second day picks on RFAs who already have NFL experience and you have a better idea of what you are getting in a player because he's already seen gametime. The only downside I see to spending picks on a RFA is they may have less potential value since they have already been in the league for 3 seasons.

 

NFL.com should have the RFA pick compensation values listed sometime after the playoffs so we'll look into this a little bit more then.

 

What do you think? RFAs good idea/bad idea

[Beerball]

You know I always read and hear about people criticizing the idea of going after RFAs because a team would have to give up a draft pick. Personally, I think RFAs for second day picks, or even late first day picks is in some cases a better idea than gambling on a rookie right out of college.

 

Now hear me out on this for a second. You know as well I as I do there is no sure thing when it comes to the NFL Draft. It's a crap shoot, especially on day 2. In my opinion it is actually a safer bet to spend those second day picks on RFAs who already have NFL experience and you have a better idea of what you are getting in a player because he's already seen gametime. The only downside I see to spending picks on a RFA is they may have less potential value since they have already been in the league for 3 seasons.

 

NFL.com should have the RFA pick compensation values listed sometime after the playoffs so we'll look into this a little bit more then.

 

What do you think? RFAs good idea/bad idea

If I remember correctly, what hurt us last year was the original team matching our offer. Seems that happened twice? Meanwhile other UFAs were taken off the market. To me, that's the main drawback. Spend time wining and dining a RFA, sign him to an offer sheet and then wait (1 week?) for the original team to decide to match. In that time how many players have you missed out on?

 

So, not a bad idea, but there is risk involved.

[The Jokeman]

You know I always read and hear about people criticizing the idea of going after RFAs because a team would have to give up a draft pick. Personally, I think RFAs for second day picks, or even late first day picks is in some cases a better idea than gambling on a rookie right out of college.

 

Now hear me out on this for a second. You know as well I as I do there is no sure thing when it comes to the NFL Draft. It's a crap shoot, especially on day 2. In my opinion it is actually a safer bet to spend those second day picks on RFAs who already have NFL experience and you have a better idea of what you are getting in a player because he's already seen gametime. The only downside I see to spending picks on a RFA is they may have less potential value since they have already been in the league for 3 seasons.

 

NFL.com should have the RFA pick compensation values listed sometime after the playoffs so we'll look into this a little bit more then.

 

What do you think? RFAs good idea/bad idea

On the whole I would say that RFAs are a bad idea. As look no further then the Washington Redskins who are a team very willing to sign RFAs and seemingly have little success. As here's a short list of guys that they've gotten and results:

 

Brandon Lloyd: cost them a 2nd Round pick and produced 23 receptions last year.

Lavarneous Coles: cost them a 1st Round pick and is now playing with the Jets.

Chad Morton: cost them a 5th Round pick and is now a New York Giant

Matt Bowen: cost them a 5th Round pick and is now a Buffalo Bill.

 

Granted one could play devils advocate and say that the Bills did well when we signed Rian Lindell as a RFA a few years ago, but of course might have been fortunate that he didn't end up costing us anything because he received a low tender from the Seahawks and entered the league as an undrafted free agent. Of course let's look at some other RFAs that we attempted to sign last offseason but failed on:

 

Reggie Wells: When we first signed him an offer sheet I thought it was a good idea. As it give us a starting LG at the cost of a 6th Round pick. Yet in looking back maybe it was a good thing we didn't get him. As 1)He got shifted to RT by the Cardinals this season and did quite well as gave up 2.5 sacks the entire season but was also flagged for 10 penalties. 2)In comparison we ended up drafting Keith Ellison with our 6th Round pick who showed to be a good special teams player and a better then expected spot starter at LB. 3)Of course one also say if we got Wells we would have never drafted Brad Butler in the 5th Round or conversly Terrance Pennington or Aaron Mertz in the 7th Round. 4)Pennington's numbers compared to Wells were pretty good in Terrance gave up 2.0 sacks in 9 starts this year and only flagged for 1 penalty. Yet at the same time probably costs less against the cap then Wells would.

 

Israel Idonije: Who? While it would not have cost the Bills anything to sign him because like Lindell was a low tendered RFA undrafted free agent we likely would have not re-signed Ryan Denney, who agreed to terms only after the Bears matched the contract the Bill offered Idonije. In looking at the numbers it looks like Denney was the better choice. As he's making about 750k more per year but well worth it how well he produces.

[WVUFootball29]

On the whole I would say that RFAs are a bad idea. As look no further then the Washington Redskins who are a team very willing to sign RFAs and seemingly have little success. As here's a short list of guys that they've gotten and results:

 

Brandon Lloyd: cost them a 2nd Round pick and produced 23 receptions last year.

Lavarneous Coles: cost them a 1st Round pick and is now playing with the Jets.

Chad Morton: cost them a 5th Round pick and is now a New York Giant

Matt Bowen: cost them a 5th Round pick and is now a Buffalo Bill.

 

Granted one could play devils advocate and say that the Bills did well when we signed Rian Lindell as a RFA a few years ago, but of course might have been fortunate that he didn't end up costing us anything because he received a low tender from the Seahawks and entered the league as an undrafted free agent. Of course let's look at some other RFAs that we attempted to sign last offseason but failed on:

 

Reggie Wells: When we first signed him an offer sheet I thought it was a good idea. As it give us a starting LG at the cost of a 6th Round pick. Yet in looking back maybe it was a good thing we didn't get him. As 1)He got shifted to RT by the Cardinals this season and did quite well as gave up 2.5 sacks the entire season but was also flagged for 10 penalties. 2)In comparison we ended up drafting Keith Ellison with our 6th Round pick who showed to be a good special teams player and a better then expected spot starter at LB. 3)Of course one also say if we got Wells we would have never drafted Brad Butler in the 5th Round or conversly Terrance Pennington or Aaron Mertz in the 7th Round. 4)Pennington's numbers compared to Wells were pretty good in Terrance gave up 2.0 sacks in 9 starts this year and only flagged for 1 penalty. Yet at the same time probably costs less against the cap then Wells would.

 

Israel Idonije: Who? While it would not have cost the Bills anything to sign him because like Lindell was a low tendered RFA undrafted free agent we likely would have not re-signed Ryan Denney, who agreed to terms only after the Bears matched the contract the Bill offered Idonije. In looking at the numbers it looks like Denney was the better choice. As he's making about 750k more per year but well worth it how well he produces.

 

you made a good arguement with the Skins...but you gotta remember Washington is the most poorly run franchise in the league. Dan Snyder is like a 12 year old kid playing Madden

[Ramius]

On the whole I would say that RFAs are a bad idea. As look no further then the Washington Redskins who are a team very willing to sign RFAs and seemingly have little success. As here's a short list of guys that they've gotten and results:

 

Brandon Lloyd: cost them a 2nd Round pick and produced 23 receptions last year.

Lavarneous Coles: cost them a 1st Round pick and is now playing with the Jets.

Chad Morton: cost them a 5th Round pick and is now a New York Giant

Matt Bowen: cost them a 5th Round pick and is now a Buffalo Bill.

 

Interesting point, but remember that the Skins traded coles back to the jets for Santana Moss. So its not like they simply let him go or lost him. They got something very nice in return for him.

[Matt in KC]

Reggie Wells: When we first signed him an offer sheet I thought it was a good idea. As it give us a starting LG at the cost of a 6th Round pick. Yet in looking back maybe it was a good thing we didn't get him. As 1)He got shifted to RT by the Cardinals this season and did quite well as gave up 2.5 sacks the entire season but was also flagged for 10 penalties. 2)In comparison we ended up drafting Keith Ellison with our 6th Round pick who showed to be a good special teams player and a better then expected spot starter at LB. 3)Of course one also say if we got Wells we would have never drafted Brad Butler in the 5th Round or conversly Terrance Pennington or Aaron Mertz in the 7th Round. 4)Pennington's numbers compared to Wells were pretty good in Terrance gave up 2.0 sacks in 9 starts this year and only flagged for 1 penalty. Yet at the same time probably costs less against the cap then Wells would.

Judging performance in retrospect (Ellison, Pennington, and also Denney in your example) is a whole lot different than before the team is complete. With very few exceptions, you don't know for sure if your draft pick will actually be able to compete at the NFL level.

 

Draft picks have pros and cons for a team: + = less expensive, longer rights to the player, sometimes more up-side - = will take time to develop and may never get to starting NFL level.

 

For a critical position like the starting O-Line, I'd rather have a known quantity than a gamble, even though you get the gamble for longer, and cheaper. That being said, if none of your draft picks develop, you're also dead in the water.

 

I'm happy to sacrifice draft picks for need positions, but there is something to be said for Beerball's point about it being a distraction if the deals rarely if ever come through. I'd like to believe the Bills are leaving "no stone unturned" looking for talent, and aren't neglecting other possibilities, in which case I applaud them for pursuing RFAs.

[YOOOOOO]

One RFA I'd go after is Patrick Crayton .... kids going to be a nice #2 next to Evans

[The Jokeman]

Interesting point, but remember that the Skins traded coles back to the jets for Santana Moss. So its not like they simply let him go or lost him. They got something very nice in return for him.

Ah but you forgot the Redskins originally gave up a 1st Rounder to acquire Coles (who the Jets packaged with their 1st Round pick to the Bears for the 4th overall pick in 2003 who turned out to be Dewayne Robertson. So the question is, was Santana Moss worth Lavernous Coles and Robertson (or conversely the player picked at #13 who turned out to be Ty Warren because the Bears then traded the pick to New England for pick 14 (which we gave them for Drew Bledsoe) and the 20th pick in the 6th Round (which was later traded to Jacksonville and turned out to be OT Marques Ogden -who was last seen on the Bills practice squad in 2005).

 

Judging performance in retrospect (Ellison, Pennington, and also Denney in your example) is a whole lot different than before the team is complete. With very few exceptions, you don't know for sure if your draft pick will actually be able to compete at the NFL level.

 

Draft picks have pros and cons for a team: + = less expensive, longer rights to the player, sometimes more up-side - = will take time to develop and may never get to starting NFL level.

 

For a critical position like the starting O-Line, I'd rather have a known quantity than a gamble, even though you get the gamble for longer, and cheaper. That being said, if none of your draft picks develop, you're also dead in the water.

 

I'm happy to sacrifice draft picks for need positions, but there is something to be said for Beerball's point about it being a distraction if the deals rarely if ever come through. I'd like to believe the Bills are leaving "no stone unturned" looking for talent, and aren't neglecting other possibilities, in which case I applaud them for pursuing RFAs.

I'll admit I used hindsight to evaluate the gains for losing out on Wells and Israel Idonije. Yet I agree that signing Wells would not have been a bad move for our 6th Rounder but again in retrospect it's maybe a better thing we didn't based on what we got in return for not signing Wells. As my first reaction was Reggie Wells: When we first signed him an offer sheet I thought it was a good idea. As it give us a starting LG at the cost of a 6th Round pick.