Coach Tuesday Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I think most of us agree that Willis is a good, but not great player. Running backs are over-valued in this League, because their value-over-replacement is not as high as their contracts would suggest. In other words, McGahee is likely seeking an enormous contract, which would be extremely disproportional to his value over an average replacement player at his position. He is simply not elite, and he'll want an elite contract. A high-quality running back can be drafted in the late first and second round or later (see: Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Travis Henry, etc.). Meanwhile, I would not be surprised if the Giants dangled their #1 pick for him this offseason. They are about to lose Tiki, they've had a miserable season which they blame on coaching, their QB, and injuries (not overall talent), and they need to make a splash with at least one big-name acquisition to re-engergize their fan base. Their last few #1 picks have not exactly been smashing successes: Eli, Kiwanuka (sp?), and Sinorice Moss have contributed very little, and Shockey has also been a disappointment. I doubt they covet another number 1 pick as much as a proven running back with a reputation as a "star," even though we all know he isn't one. And don't tell me the Bills couldn't use another #1. They could draft two first-round linemen (one on O, one on D), or perhaps Adrian Peterson falls to one of their #1s (and he would be much cheaper than McGahee, with just as much if not more upside). Thoughts?
Buffan00 Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I think most of us agree that Willis is a good, but not great player. Running backs are over-valued in this League, because their value-over-replacement is not as high as their contracts would suggest. In other words, McGahee is likely seeking an enormous contract, which would be extremely disproportional to his value over an average replacement player at his position. He is simply not elite, and he'll want an elite contract. A high-quality running back can be drafted in the late first and second round or later (see: Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Travis Henry, etc.). Meanwhile, I would not be surprised if the Giants dangled their #1 pick for him this offseason. They are about to lose Tiki, they've had a miserable season which they blame on coaching, their QB, and injuries (not overall talent), and they need to make a splash with at least one big-name acquisition to re-engergize their fan base. Their last few #1 picks have not exactly been smashing successes: Eli, Kiwanuka (sp?), and Sinorice Moss have contributed very little, and Shockey has also been a disappointment. I doubt they covet another number 1 pick as much as a proven running back with a reputation as a "star," even though we all know he isn't one. And don't tell me the Bills couldn't use another #1. They could draft two first-round linemen (one on O, one on D), or perhaps Adrian Peterson falls to one of their #1s (and he would be much cheaper than McGahee, with just as much if not more upside). Thoughts? hmmmm..id take that!!
keepthefaith Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I think most of us agree that Willis is a good, but not great player. Running backs are over-valued in this League, because their value-over-replacement is not as high as their contracts would suggest. In other words, McGahee is likely seeking an enormous contract, which would be extremely disproportional to his value over an average replacement player at his position. He is simply not elite, and he'll want an elite contract. A high-quality running back can be drafted in the late first and second round or later (see: Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Travis Henry, etc.). Meanwhile, I would not be surprised if the Giants dangled their #1 pick for him this offseason. They are about to lose Tiki, they've had a miserable season which they blame on coaching, their QB, and injuries (not overall talent), and they need to make a splash with at least one big-name acquisition to re-engergize their fan base. Their last few #1 picks have not exactly been smashing successes: Eli, Kiwanuka (sp?), and Sinorice Moss have contributed very little, and Shockey has also been a disappointment. I doubt they covet another number 1 pick as much as a proven running back with a reputation as a "star," even though we all know he isn't one. And don't tell me the Bills couldn't use another #1. They could draft two first-round linemen (one on O, one on D), or perhaps Adrian Peterson falls to one of their #1s (and he would be much cheaper than McGahee, with just as much if not more upside). Thoughts? I doubt any team would give a #1 for Willis.
Coach Tuesday Posted December 28, 2006 Author Posted December 28, 2006 I doubt any team would give a #1 for Willis. Don't be so sure. The Redskins traded the best CB in the League for Portis. The Patriots (who NEVER make any stupid moves, right?) traded a second-round pick for Corey Dillon, who was 29 at the time - four years older than McGahee is, and with more wear and tear on his body (because McGahee sat out his first NFL season). Let's agree that we'd get at least a #2 for him - and frankly, I might take that. With the $$ they save on McGahee, they can invest in Clements and some real linemen...
bbfan54 Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 Willis blew out his knee that is worth a couple of years of wear and tear. Moreover, Corey Dillon was a better player than willis when he was traded to the patriots.
Lurker Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I doubt you'd get more than a second, but I'd still consider it.
bluv Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I'll believe it when I see it as no team would be stupid enough to give up a #1 pick for WM. He is a good but not great RB and could easily be replaced. If we get such a deal than vote Marv Levy for GM of the year!
pBills Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 Isn't Peterson the one with a broken leg or something along those lines?
Coach Tuesday Posted December 28, 2006 Author Posted December 28, 2006 Willis blew out his knee that is worth a couple of years of wear and tear. Moreover, Corey Dillon was a better player than willis when he was traded to the patriots. I guess I'd disagree with both of those points, especially the first one - Willis' surgically-repaired knee is supposed to be just as strong, if not stronger than his pre-injury knee.
Coach Tuesday Posted December 28, 2006 Author Posted December 28, 2006 Isn't Peterson the one with a broken leg or something along those lines? Broken collarbone. He'll be fine.
Dante Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I would take a second and the knowledge that we are not wasting a crap load of money on him. I think he is a bit above average but not enough to stretch the budget for. I would sooner take that money and try to reinforce our OLine or someone that can help us stop the run when we have to.
The Tomcat Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 A first round pick....interesting....I'd have to admit I'd think about a first. No way for a second. And if we franchise Nate (I know Marv said no) and get another first for that. Now we've got 3 1st rounders......I don't know what I'm typing...it was a LONG night last night.....
silvermike Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 The truth is, I have no freaking idea what trade values are in the NFL. Deion Branch is worth a #1 pick. Peerless Price is worth a #1 pick. Nobody would offer a 2nd rounder for Shaun Alexander or Edgerrin James, but Lamar Gordon was a 3rd round pick, though that was Miami. Drew Bledsoe was a first rounder, AJ Feeley was a 2nd rounder, Ricky Williams was 2 firsts. Nothing makes any sense!
marauderswr80 Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 Noway a team gives a #1 for Willis. I know the Giants will need a RB due to Tiki's retirement. However, I have a gut feeling if Tom Coughlin was to be fired after the year, I could really see Tiki coming back to play for the Giants. Another thing, let say we traded Willis for a # 1 pick, we better use one of them picks for a RB, cause I can tell you now A-train is not the type RB you can game plan with. Hes a nice change of pace back, but thats all...... Again, if Willis was to leave, I do think the offense takes another step backwards. Noway do i think Willis deserves the type money Edge got from the Cards......
ans4e64 Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I would definitely take a 1st for McGahee, however I dont see the Giants giving theirs up. They have a young promising back in Brandon Jacobs, who they are looking to give a lot more carries to. He wont be their whole offense by any stretch, but they will look for a nice change of pace back for him to share carries with. They wouldnt give up a 1st for a marginal back to share carries and come out on goal line situations. If they did offer it however, I would definitely take it
frogger Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 I think you said it in the first line, good not great, unless the giants have some wierd thing for Miami players...which it looks like the do.
faderphreak Posted December 28, 2006 Posted December 28, 2006 If any team is dumb enough to offer a first or even second round pick for Willis, it would be hard to say no. There are plenty of examples of first year backs drafted as low as the seventh (Terrell Davis) that have made an impact. While the A-train would not be the answer, he could certainly mentor a younger player. The picks could be used to bolster the either the O ir D lines, or to replace Willis or possibly Fletcher.
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