Koufax Posted December 25, 2006 Posted December 25, 2006 I was hoping to be waiting a while before even caring about this, but... Let me be clear. I am NOT rooting for the Bills to lose to Baltimore, even though I think that will be a tough game against one of the best teams in football on the road playing for a bye. If it comes down to a last second play for the Bills to win or lose I won't have the slightest "damn, this kick is going to cost us x spots in the draft", because a team win is worth more than any draft positioning. But we are going to finish 8-8 or more likely 7-9, and with the tight bunching in the middle (especially the NFC) that could mean a big range for our pick. Teams with 9+ wins who we are ahead of in the draft: #21-32: NE, DEN, SD, IND, BAL, DAL, CHI, NO, NYJ, PHI, SEA, KC #14-20 TEN 8-8 JAX 8-8 CIN 8-8 PIT 8-8 NYG 8-8 CAR 8-8 Stl 8-8 #11-13 GB 7-8 (@CHI) Atl 7-8 (@PHI) BUF 7-9 #9-10 MIA 6-9 (@IND) SF 6-9 (@ DEN) Teams with 10+ losses who the Bills are definitely behind in the draft #1-8: DET, TB, ARI, WSH, OAK, HOU, CLE, MIN Edit: Updates and overhaul Edit: PIT win, KC win, TEN loss, Bills Loss
CosmicBills Posted December 25, 2006 Posted December 25, 2006 I would much rather see this team go into Baltimore (who is still playing for a First round Bye) and knock them off after this tough loss than see the Bills get a few picks higher in the draft. A win over an excellent Baltimore team would do so much more for this young core group of players than a top 15 pick would do. That's my long winded way of saying, I don't care about the draft until 5pm next Sunday.
Koufax Posted December 25, 2006 Author Posted December 25, 2006 Yeah, I want to see the Bills win at Baltimore independently of any of this stuff as I said in the original post. I'm talking about what else happens other than the Bills game, but that's mostly the sad leftover energy after worrying about the tie breaker with Cincinnati. So to be clear, I'm not talking about advantages of losing in Baltimore, and hope we win that game. I'm talking about other outcomes that could affect where we pick, since 8 to 24 is a pretty big difference, and we can keep an eye on unrelated games to see how things will work out. Of course you can wait until next week, or wait until the day of the draft, but I'm going to start thinking about the 2007 Bills a little more now that we have been eliminated.
syhuang Posted December 25, 2006 Posted December 25, 2006 Anybody who knows a little more about the tie breaker order or any of that stuff, please add in that information. 877548[/snapback] Determining Draft Order • Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage. • Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure. • As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted December 25, 2006 Posted December 25, 2006 what we need is a GOOD defensive tackle.
Koufax Posted December 26, 2006 Author Posted December 26, 2006 Thanks for the added info. No worrying about the tie breakers yet, but I have to think our strong strength of schedule will work against us among teams with the same record. Again I'm rooting for the Bills to win on Sunday, since that win would be worth more than a few spots in the draft. But I'm also rooting for: PIT, TEN, GB, CAR, ATL, STL, NYG all of which turn otherwise meaningless games into Bills draft position advantages. Our range currently stands at 8-22 which is a huge difference through all rounds. We are probably most realistically looking at 12-16 which should lead to some good pickups for Marv and Dick.
apuszczalowski Posted December 26, 2006 Posted December 26, 2006 Seeing as how Buffalo had the advantage over most teams with the same record, they will not be picking near the top 10, especially with the NFC haveing so many 7-8 and teams looking at making the playoffs (not a great conference) the bills will probably be closer to 14-18 spot which is a great spot because they can pretty much get an impact player at any position and not pay high $$$$$'s for them, and not be under the magnifying glass with their selection.
bisonbrigade Posted December 26, 2006 Posted December 26, 2006 1ST Round pick OLB Pauk Posluszny. A great Penn State linebacker. 2nd Round pick CB Marcus McCauley. 6-1 CB with speed. 3rd Round pick G Nathan Bennet. Depth at O-line. Free Agent signings TE- Eric Johnson DT-Rod Coleman
The Jokeman Posted December 26, 2006 Posted December 26, 2006 1ST Round pick OLB Pauk Posluszny. A great Penn State linebacker. 2nd Round pick CB Marcus McCauley. 6-1 CB with speed. 3rd Round pick G Nathan Bennet. Depth at O-line. Free Agent signings TE- Eric Johnson DT-Rod Coleman 878071[/snapback] McCauley is arguably the best or 2nd best CB in the entire draft, I highly doubt he'll be available with our 2nd pick. We don't need depth at O-line we need starters IMHO and already have the depth in Preston and Mertz.
Whitner20 Posted December 26, 2006 Posted December 26, 2006 1ST Round pick OLB Pauk Posluszny. A great Penn State linebacker. 2nd Round pick CB Marcus McCauley. 6-1 CB with speed. 3rd Round pick G Nathan Bennet. Depth at O-line. Free Agent signings TE- Eric Johnson DT-Rod Coleman 878071[/snapback] In the dream world, i guess that would work. I don't think they'll be thinking Posluzny but McCauley won't be there for us in the 2nd round. Rod Coleman for DT? What will we do with Williams, Tripplett and McCargo? Give up on them like we were going to give up on Losman?
BravinSeattle Posted December 26, 2006 Posted December 26, 2006 I was hoping to be waiting a while before even caring about this, but just as I was rooting for KC last night and planning on getting my teal and orange face paint out tomorrow, I'm curious what teams to root for for the Bills to get a high draft pick. Let me be clear. I am NOT rooting for the Bills to lose to Baltimore, even though I think that will be a tough game against one of the best teams in football on the road playing for a bye. If it comes down to a last second play for the Bills to win or lose I won't have the slightest "damn, this kick is going to cost us x spots in the draft", because a team win is worth more than any draft positioning. But we are going to finish 8-8 or more likely 7-9, and with the tight bunching in the middle (especially the NFC) that could mean a big range for our pick. Teams with 9 or more wins who we are definitely ahead of in the draft: NE, DEN, SD, IND, BAL, DAL, CHI, NO Teams with 5 or fewer wins who we definitely are behind: DET, TB, ARI, WSH, OAK, HOU, CLE So that puts us anywhere from #8 to #22 (Jax or KC will have nine wins), and still a big range of what can happen. Here are the teams, wins, and remaining opponents who are also in that 8-24 range: NYJ 8-6 (@MIA, OAK) CIN 8-7 (PIT) TEN 8-7 (NE) JAX 8-7 (@KC) KC 8-7 (JAX) PIT 7-8 (@CIN) NYG 7-8 (@WSH) GB 7-8 (@CHI) Car 7-8 (@NO) Atl 7-8 (@PHI) Stl 7-8 (@MIN) MIA 6-8 (NYJ, @IND) SF 6-9 (@ DEN) Min 6-9 (StL) I have no idea how the tie breakers work when a bunch of teams are tied for the draft, but those are all the teams that could finish with the same record as the Bills. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out. I will never root against the Bills, but I certainly might root for a few of these non-Bills games to go our way. Green Bay beating the Bears or Carolina beating NO or Pit beating Cincinnati, etc. are all things that unrelated to us could vault us up the draft boards and help us improve more this off-season. If we can't upset a very tough Baltimore team six of those teams move ahead of us meaning we would pick from 8 to 16. This is without any of the tie breaker logic in place. Go Bills, but also go to some of the 7 and 8 win teams. Anybody who knows a little more about the tie breaker order or any of that stuff, please add in that information. Edit: Philly win and ordering teams. 877548[/snapback] I think we could be anywhere from 10 to 14 but I'd guess because of our strength of schedule we'll be around 14.
Koufax Posted December 26, 2006 Author Posted December 26, 2006 Remember that our tie breakers for the playoffs where not strength of schedule at all. We were taking the conference record and strength of victory tie breakers. I still think we will not win out too well on strength of schedule with Indy, NE, NE, CHI, Bal, and SD, so I guess we wouldn't mind if a bunch of those teams listed won (whether we win or lose, and I hope we win). I think when the dust settles we will be around 12-14, but I'm rooting for a bunch of these 7 and 8 win teams to win on Sunday to help us out at no cost to us (unlike rooting against the Bills to help us out which is dumb).
ganesh Posted December 26, 2006 Posted December 26, 2006 Free Agent signings TE- Eric Johnson DT-Rod Coleman 878071[/snapback] I think they should go after Lance Briggs at the LB position.
Koufax Posted December 31, 2006 Author Posted December 31, 2006 So here is your draft pick rooting schedule (we are still rooting for the Bills to win, don't worry). Early Games: TEN over NE CAR over NO STL over MIN (still up in the air, but I think MIN will pick ahead of us even with a win) PIT over CIN (although this one depends, that is the outcome that could have us pick against both) Late Games: ATL over PHI SF over DEN MIA over IND (although I'm not actually rooting for MIA and hope they finish behind us) Night Game: GB over CHI But most importantly Bills over BAL because it would be a huge morale booster and that's worth more than draft position always!
Bills Fan888 Posted December 31, 2006 Posted December 31, 2006 12-3 New England over tenesse. 14-7 NO over Carolina 10-7 STL over Minny 7-0 PIT over CIN
Bills Fan888 Posted December 31, 2006 Posted December 31, 2006 19-3 NE over TEN BAD 14-14 CAR tied with NO GOOD 17-7 STL over Minny GOOD 7-3 PIT over CIN GOOD
Koufax Posted December 31, 2006 Author Posted December 31, 2006 Carolina, St Louis, and Pittsburgh all have second half leads in the four early games we want. Vince Young is down 9 to the Pats, but that's well within his "I'm Superman" range . (Again, I definitely want the Bills to beat the Ravens, so don't misunderstand this post. It's just that I don't mind of Tennessee moves to 9-7 for example, since there is no trophy for 14th place, and these unrelated outcomes could have a pretty big swing in our draft position) Update, Carolina and STL are up big. Vince Young just moved to within six points, but Carson Palmer just showed again that he has a better arm than I do (why does he have to rub it in EVERY WEEK) and PIT is down 2 now.
Bills Fan888 Posted December 31, 2006 Posted December 31, 2006 We also want Seattle to win because New England has their 1st round pick.
Koufax Posted December 31, 2006 Author Posted December 31, 2006 Good point. Doesn't affect us directly, but Since they will have a record right in the crowded waters, Go Seahawks!
Bills Fan888 Posted December 31, 2006 Posted December 31, 2006 Seahawks are in the playoffs so if they make a deep run the Pats are getting a low pick.
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