Is JP having the best 2006

[Mikie2times]

I decided to compare JP with each QB in his draft class. As I looked at the numbers I felt good about how JP’s season was stacking up. Before I get into anything else let’s look at those numbers.

 

Listed are my four most important statistics for judging QB performance. I assigned a ranking of 1 to 4 for each category depending on how the QB ranked in that statistic. The final ranking is the average of all the rankings.

 

 

-Yards Per Attempt-

1. Ben R.- 7.5

2. Phillip Rivers- 7.3

3. JP Losman- 7.1

4. Eli Manning- 6.5

 

-%-

1. JP Losman- 63.4%

2. Phillip Rivers- 62.8%

3. Ben R.- 60%

4. Eli Manning- 59.4%

 

-TD/INT Ratio-

1. Phillip Rivers- 2.25

2. JP Losman- 1.7

3. Eli Manning- 1.29

4. Ben R.- .80

 

-QB Rating-

1 . Phillip Rivers- 91.5

2. JP Losman- 88.5

3. Eli Manning- 79.3

4. Ben R.- 76

 

-Final Rating-

1. Phillip Rivers- 1.5

2. JP Losman- 2

3. Ben R.- 3

4. Eli Manning- 3

 

At first I conceded the number one spot to Phillip Rivers. After all Rivers set the NFL on fire early on, and I’m just thrilled to see JP at two. But then I began thinking about what each team has to work with. Looking at those numbers a very good case could be made for JP having the best overall year.

 

As someone who’s studied statistics I’ve found the two stats that hurt QB performance the most are rushing yards per attempt, and sacks per pass attempt. One thing never fails, if those stats are good the QB production improves, visa versa. Often times break out seasons at QB are accompanied by excellent production in those areas. Down years will come from great to bad production in those areas one year to the next. JP is at a noticeable disadvantage in both areas compared to the other QB’s I listed.

 

Rush Average

SD #4

NYG #7

PITT #10

BUF #27

 

Sacks Per Pass Attempt

NYG #6

SD#11

PITT #26 (This may surprise people; they also sucked in this area last year. They just run so damn well.)

BUF #31

 

So basically JP is doing damn near the best with obvious disadvantages. If Buffalo can do anything to improve those areas next year he should be on the verge of a breakout season.

 

Did I mention JP is also the best runner?

[BuffaloBilliever]

Also, San Diego has that LaDanian Tomlinson guy... and the other two teams have Pro Bowl Running Backs.

 

ALSO, I think completion PCT. is the most telling stat.

[Mikie2times]

Also, San Diego has that LaDanian Tomlinson guy... and the other two teams have Pro Bowl Running Backs.

 

ALSO, I think completion PCT. is the most telling stat.

872685[/snapback]

It's debatable. I would go with yards per attempt for QB stats unrelated to points or turnovers. That incorporates yards and completition % but can sometimes be skewed for great run PA teams.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

Rivers - Its much easier to perform when you hand the ball off to LT 25 times a game and have maybe the best tight end in the game. Oh ya and their defense ain't too shabby either. However, rivers has sucked ass the last few weeks and looked like a little kid who just dropped his ice cream cone when he made a poor pass last week. That "poise" won't get him far as a team leader, especially when he has completed barely 50% of his passes over the last 4 games.

 

Manning - I don't think there is a more overrated QB in the game today. One week he's ok and the next he's pathetic. I just don't see him as a consistently good QB, but who knows, a lot of people said JP was terrible too.

 

Roethlisberger - Can't argue the fact that he in fact won a SB (with a 22.9 rating) but at least he scored a rushing TD (well he didn't by anybody else's standards except the officials in that game), but now that more responsibility has been placed on his shoulders without the Bus and a dominant o-line he's thrown 20 picks and had a bunch of fumbles.

 

JP has most definitely looked like the best out of the bunch since the Bills bye week. I think we are watching a star develop, and will be our QB for the next decade or so. Go Bills!!!

[Tortured Soul]

So basically JP is doing damn near the best with obvious disadvantages. If Buffalo can do anything to improve those areas next year he should be on the verge of a breakout season.

 

Did I mention JP is also the best runner?

872682[/snapback]

So does that mean that if you needed to pick one of the four to start for your team Sunday, it would be Losman?

[ganesh]

Also, San Diego has that LaDanian Tomlinson guy... and the other two teams have Pro Bowl Running Backs.

 

ALSO, I think completion PCT. is the most telling stat.

872685[/snapback]

 

 

Who care guys....we have a NFL caliber starting QB for our team and hopefully he will be the QB of this team for a long time. Success in NFL comes in the # of championship games you play and/or win....I would love Losman to bring that championship to our beloved team....I could care less if he had better or worser stats than the QBs from his year.....Wouldn't you have loved to have Ben leading us to that superbowl last year ?

[ganesh]

JP has most definitely looked like the best out of the bunch since the Bills bye week. I think we are watching a star develop, and will be our QB for the next decade or so. Go Bills!!!

872700[/snapback]

I still think Rivers has played the best overall...In spite of having LT, he has also made plays like the game in Cincinnati, Baltimore etc. Rivers has played mistake free football. JP has been the most improved player in the 2nd half. However, he still could have played better at quite a few times. I also want JP to really master the art of moving the chains using intermediate passes. That will come with experience.

[Bills Fan888]

Also, San Diego has that LaDanian Tomlinson guy... and the other two teams have Pro Bowl Running Backs.

 

ALSO, I think completion PCT. is the most telling stat.

872685[/snapback]

But you can have a high completion % by passing to the RB every attempt.

[Dibs]

I still think Rivers has played the best overall...In spite of having LT, he has also made plays like the game in Cincinnati, Baltimore etc.  Rivers has played mistake free football.  JP has been the most improved player in the 2nd half. However, he still could have played better at quite a few times.....

872821[/snapback]

I think you're spot on there. Rivers had a much better 1st half than JP. That doesn't mean that JP(when factoring individual situations/surrounding talent etc) has not been the better performer in the second half, simply that Rivers overall has had the better season.

I tend to think that even had JP been on the Chargers, he would still have needed to take his lumps & learn the 'pro' game....even with their weapons & line. Put him there now & I think he would be absolutely awesome.

[bizell]

But you can have a high completion % by passing to the RB every attempt.

872825[/snapback]

see: kelly holcomb

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Manning and Roethlisberger have had to do more, which is probably why they have had problems this year. Rivers, at the start of the year was playing Marty ball, lately they have opened it up much like the Bills have with JP.

 

I think JP had the training wheels on this year so I think we have to wait until next year to really see what we have.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

I think you're spot on there.  Rivers had a much better 1st half than JP.  That doesn't mean that JP(when factoring individual situations/surrounding talent etc) has not been the better performer in the second half, simply that Rivers overall has had the better season. 

I tend to think that even had JP been on the Chargers, he would still have needed to take his lumps & learn the 'pro' game....even with their weapons & line.  Put him there now & I think he would be absolutely awesome.

872837[/snapback]

 

 

Exactly. But in terms of where they now JP has performed better as the season has progressed JPs game has elevated while Rivers' has declined a lot since the beginning of the season. Also, like i was saying before, with the weapons that Rivers has the transition had to have been easier than it was for JP.

[Wraith]

Exactly. But in terms of where they now JP has performed better as the season has progressed JPs game has elevated while Rivers' has declined a lot since the beginning of the season. Also, like i was saying before, with the weapons that Rivers has the transition had to have been easier than it was for JP.

872857[/snapback]

 

I think this point is huge. The table below shows some pertinant statistics for the last 7 games, which represents the second half of the season so far, and conveniently aligns with the Bills bye week:

 

NAME_________PCT___YPA___YPC___TD RATE___INT RATE___RATING

LOSMAN______65.24__7.53___11.54___6.71______2.44_______100.03

RIVERS__.____59.18__7.35___12.41___3.57______2.55________83.29

MANNING_____57.56__5.87___10.20___3.36______3.78________69.96

ROETHLIS.____58.44__7.56___12.93___4.33______3.90________80.47

 

*YPC is Yards per Catch, which I like because it decouples yards gained from completion percentage.

 

PCT

1) Losman (...and it's not even CLOSE)

2) Rivers

3) Roethlisberger

4) Manning

 

YPA

1) Roethlisberger

2) Losman

3) Rivers

4) Manning

 

YPC

1) Roethlisberger

2) Rivers

3) Losman

4) Rivers

 

TD Rate

1) Losman (again...NOT EVEN CLOSE)

2) Roethlisberger

3) Rivers

4) Manning

 

Int Rate

1) Losman

2) Rivers

3) Manning

4) Roethlisberger

 

Rating (which is basically a weighted average of COMP%, YPA, TD Rate, and Int Rate)

1) Losman

2) Rivers

3) Roethlisberger

4) Manning

 

As you see, their play coming down the stretch run is not even comparable. Losman has been far and away the best quarterback, despite factoring in duds against Green Bay and Indianapolis. It's not even close, really.

 

I have these numbers for the top 15 QBs, Losman is nearly on par with Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees, which is amazing, and WELL above Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It makes you wonder how proficient the offense could be if we threw more (not that I'd suggest that, the current formula seems to be working).

[Dibs]

LOSMAN______65.24__7.53___11.54___6.71______2.44_______100.03

 

872889[/snapback]

Seeing that 100QBR there really spells out how good he has been playing of late.

I am felling great about our future with JP.

[Koufax]

I think Rivers and Cutler (the other QB discussion topic) are going to be excellent quarterbacks, but I am very happy to have JP, and think he might end up being the best of the bunch, but even if he isn't, he is going to be a good quarterback and we can start focusing on right guard, etc. and building a super bowl winner.

 

But did you say 63.4%? You must be mistaken. This is inaccurate 49% Losman we are talking about who could never throw that accurately. There must be some misprint in the stats and it has nothing to do with the typical progression of developing quarterbacks who turn into stars.

 

Go Bills! Six more wins until we are Super Bowl champs! (okay, I'll take one more win and we can play no meaningless games all year)

[Pyrite Gal]

Who care guys....we have a NFL caliber starting QB for our team and hopefully he will be the QB of this team for a long time.  Success in NFL comes in the # of championship games you play and/or win....I would love Losman to bring that championship to our beloved team....I could care less if he had better or worser stats than the QBs from his year.....Wouldn't you have loved to have Ben leading us to that superbowl last year ?

872817[/snapback]

 

You are right on point for putting this consideration into the proper context! This is because ultimately the most important statistical comparison of the achievements of these 4 QBs this year if one is interested at all in the real world is this simple statistical comparison:

 

Rivers- 12/2

 

Losman- 7/7

 

Manning- 7/7

 

RoboQB- 7/7

 

All the statistical analysis is certainly useful, but really only for parsing the difference between which of the three definite failing grade QBs (do any disagree that these three QBs have failed this season. If you don't think they had disappointing seasons in which they failed perform at the rate they should perform then you likely disagree with all three of these athletes- in fact if any of these three were not disappointed with their performance this year they probably will not amount to much in this league) have something positive build on or in a tailspin they must reverse.

 

One can insist that looking at this as by far the primary measurement of QB performance does not take into account the particular play of this indiviual as separate from the rest of his teammates.

 

Yeah sure, but so what.

 

Last I checked here in reality a player takes the field with 10 other teammates and in fact his performance is in a large way determined by how his teammates do when he is not even on the field as the D makes good situations for him to take advantage of and covers for his mistakes (last I checked no athlete is perfect) and the ST performance is the quickest way to change momentum or to simply turn the field.

 

These point are obvious.

 

However, the statistical comparison of secondary (in fact tertiary or even lesser) QB stats by which an athlete ultimately judges his success or failure strikes me as fairly senseless without even at least an acknowledgement of whats really important in this game.

 

By far Rivers had the best season and is the best performer of these 4 QBs. It is the simple stat that his team is vying for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a 12-2 mark while the other are likely to miss the playoffs that shows this.

 

The fact that the individual stats also generally reflect this is certainly related to the ultimate stat of W/L, but it is closer to coincidence than the reality of the ultimate stat.