Bills Have a 50/50 Chance to Make Playoffs!

[meazza]

The Colts win over the Bengals was huge and gives Buffalo about a 50-50 chance of getting into the playoffs if they win their final 2 games.

 

Not including the Bills games, there are 8 remaining games left that will impact the Bills' chances (the DEN, CIN, NYJ, JAX, and KC games). There are 256 possible combinations of results in those games, excluding ties.

 

OVERALL PICTURE:

 

Of the 256 possible outcomes, 104 would put the Bills in the playoffs while 152 would leave them out.

 

However, 2 of the 8 games involve the hapless Oakland Raiders in games that the Bills want Oakland to lose (if the Jets beat Miami, the Jets MUST beat Oakland for the Bills to stay alive). Assuming that the Raiders will lose both of those games, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 of the remaining scenarios while only 31 would leave the Bills out of the picture.

 

IMPORTANCE OF SPECIFIC GAMES:

 

MIA vs NYJ: This game is incredibly important for the Bills chances. If Miami wins, the Bills would make the playoffs in 92 of 128 scenarios. A Dolphins win here plus a Pats win over the Jags would put the Bills in the playoffs in 58 of 64 scenarios.

 

If the Jets win, however, the Bills would only make the playoffs in 12 of 128 possible scenarios. We want the Bengals to beat Denver next week because that would make it more likely that the Bills could still get in even if NYJ beats MIA.

 

Jags 2 games: As a group, the Jags games against NE and KC are quite important. If the Jags win both games, the Bills can only get into the playoffs in 4 of 64 scenarios. If the Jags lose to KC in Week 17, however, the Bills would make the playoffs in 70 of 128 scenarios and miss in only 58.

 

DEN vs. CIN: As of now, the Bills would make the playoffs in 52 of 128 scenarios regardless of who wins this game. However, a Cincy win would improve the Bills slight chance to get in if the Jets beat Miami, while a Denver win would improve the Bills' already great chances if Miami wins.

 

The remaining games don't have as much bearing on the overall picture as of now.

 

The bottom line is that the playoffs are a very real possibility for the Bills if they win their final 2 games.

 

WE NEED THE 12TH MAN IN FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY!!!

871637[/snapback]

 

Thank you for taking the time to write this out and I was wondering if you would sign my petition to save the dolphins?

[ezbills]

Thank you for taking the time to write this out and I was wondering if you would sign my petition to save the dolphins?

873675[/snapback]

 

Miami, or real?

[Orton's Arm]

You cute when you're pwned. 

873670[/snapback]

Dude, stop trying to hijack a perfectly good thread about playoff scenarios by lying about the outcome of our debate over in the regression toward the mean thread.

[ezbills]

Dude, stop trying to hijack a perfectly good thread about playoff scenarios by lying about the outcome of our debate over in the regression toward the mean thread.

873678[/snapback]

 

Please tell me that there's not actually a regression toward the mean thread...

 

[meazza]

Miami, or real?

873676[/snapback]

 

I'm guessing you never saw that commercial.

[ezbills]

I'm guessing you never saw that commercial.

873681[/snapback]

 

It must not have aired on ESPN...

[Dwight Drane]

Not to be a total D!ck to ez....but I did put this together on Sunday during a similar thread he started. You have to take into account point spreads as the most accurate chances of a victory. Since that post the Bengals lost to Indy and the Bills are a slightly bigger favorite, but the rest holds true....here is the paste:

 

You may have to trust me on my math here....but I am using probabilities with pointspeads figured in as to chances of certain outcomes.

 

The hardest part of any scenario is BUFFALO WINNING 2 GAMES. That may be a shock, but there is a better chance of other teams faltering, than us winning both games.

 

We are 3.5 point favorites against TEN which translates to winning almost 2/3 of the time. We will be anywhere from a 1-6 point underdog in Baltimore depending on their homefield chances, I'll use 4.5 which means we will win about 30% of the time or so. This leaves Buffalo with a 20% chance of winning both games.

 

We need 3 of the 4 after KC loses tonight:

 

1)Jets lose to Miami...MIA 1.5 favorites, just under 60% chance to happen

 

2)Jax loses 1 game to either NE or KC. Jags 3 point favorites against NE in Florida and I would peg a pickem against KC away. 70% chance of happening

 

3)CIN lose to IND +3 and then at DEN +2 or home vs PIT -6....about 50% chance

or win vs IND and lose final 2....about 15% chance for a total of 65%

 

4)DEN lose to both CIN -2 and SF -8.....less than 15%..OR..win 1 of two and have KC beat OAK-3 and JAX pick....just under 15% for a total of 30%

 

Odds of Missing with Bills@ 9-7:

 

Jets-Jax-Cin 25%

Jets-Jax-Den 12%

Jax-Cin-Den 15%

Cin-Jets-Den 12%

All 4 teams 7%

 

With Buffalo having a 20% chance of winning both of their games....the chances of the Bills in the playoffs are this:

 

Buf+Den 5%

Buf+Jets 3%

Buf+Cin 2.5%

Buf+Jax 2.5%

Buf+? 1.5%

 

This leaves Buffalo with a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs assuming my point spreads and odds.

 

I need a beer!

[ezbills]

We're saying the same thing, just 2 different ways.

 

You're trying to factor in the likelihood that teams will win or lose their particular games, including the Bills. I was explaining the combinations of scenarios that would put the Bills in the playoffs IF they actually do win their games.

 

Since it looks like the Bills have a 50/50 shot at getting in the playoffs if they go 2-0, the chance that the Bills will actually make the playoffs is whatever percent chance someone thinks the Bills have of actually going 2-0, divided by 2.

[Dwight Drane]

We're saying the same thing, just 2 different ways.

 

You're trying to factor in the likelihood that teams will win or lose their particular games, including the Bills. I was explaining the combinations of scenarios that would put the Bills in the playoffs IF they actually do win their games.

 

Since it looks like the Bills have a 50/50 shot at getting in the playoffs if they go 2-0, the chance that the Bills will actually make the playoffs is whatever percent chance someone thinks the Bills have of actually going 2-0, divided by 2.

873913[/snapback]

 

Right now the Bills have almost a 75% chance to make the playoffs if they win out. I don't think anyone in the lockerroom believes that from all the interviews I see. Everyone is all.."I wish we controlled our own destiny, and a lot has to happen..."

 

No, a lot doesn't have to happen. If you beat Tennessee and Baltimore guys, you will most likely be in the playoffs. The Bills are the weak link. Granted a lot rides on Miami beating the Jets, but if that happens...we are almost guaranteed to get in as long as we win two.

 

And you are correct with your mathmatical approach....I break down numbers and odds for a living, so I feel comfortable putting spreads out there that may be a point or 2 off eventually. The biggest point we both agree on is we don't need a miracle...we just need to win.

[ezbills]

Right now the Bills have almost a 75% chance to make the playoffs if they win out. I don't think anyone in the lockerroom believes that from all the interviews I see. Everyone is all.."I wish we controlled our own destiny, and a lot has to happen..."

 

No, a lot doesn't have to happen. If you beat Tennessee and Baltimore guys, you will most likely be in the playoffs. The Bills are the weak link. Granted a lot rides on Miami beating the Jets, but if that happens...we are almost guaranteed to get in as long as we win two.

 

And you are correct with your mathmatical approach....I break down numbers and odds for a living, so I feel comfortable putting spreads out there that may be a point or 2 off eventually. The biggest point we both agree on is we don't need a miracle...we just need to win.

873998[/snapback]

 

The reason I have it at 50% now is because it's roughly 75% if Miami beats NYJ and 25% or less if the Jets beat Miami. I think a lot of players or fans just look at the fact that the Bills are currently 9th in the AFC without realizing that the Bills should easily pass 2 or 3 teams with a win vs the Titans.

[Dwight Drane]

The reason I have it at 50% now is because it's roughly 75% if Miami beats NYJ and 25% or less if the Jets beat Miami. I think a lot of players or fans just look at the fact that the Bills are currently 9th in the AFC without realizing that the Bills should easily pass 2 or 3 teams with a win vs the Titans.

874074[/snapback]

 

I hear you. I bet you the Bills organization themselves just sort of guess their chances. People get scared off by numbers, and if there isn't a spreadsheet or software that can break it down for them they sort of brush it off.

 

I appreciate the work you and others did to inform me just what needed to happen for the Bills to get in. All I did was assume you were correct on tiebreakers, then projected week 17 point spreads and did the same thing you did. If fans knew in general how great a chance we had to make it....I think tickets would sell a bit more. While the product on the field has been better this year, the other organizational departments really have gone downhill...i.e. the ticket window fiasco.

[Dan]

No, a lot doesn't have to happen. If you beat Tennessee and Baltimore guys, you will most likely be in the playoffs. The Bills are the weak link. Granted a lot rides on Miami beating the Jets, but if that happens...we are almost guaranteed to get in as long as we win two.

873998[/snapback]

 

I understand and truly appreciate the optimism in this thread, but the reality is the Bills are not likely to be in the playoffs. They have to win their last 2 games and multiple other teams have to lose, and must lose certain games not just 1 0f the last 2. That makes us a longshot.

 

There are 4 teams at 8-6, if I recall correctly. The reality is all of those teams have much, much better chance of being in the playoffs.

 

I'm not trying to be the wet blanket here, I'm just saying lets ground this thing in reality. If the Bills win out and several other teams lose certain games we can get in. And that is a great and hopeful thing. And I read this thread daily to remind me of who I need to root for this week (I'm still a little confused on whether I'm rooting for Denver or Cinci to win). More importantly, I think we should all congratulate this team for playing tough; thereby, allowing us to have these discussions!

[The Big Cat]

I understand and truly appreciate the optimism in this thread, but the reality is the Bills are not likely to be in the playoffs.  They have to win their last 2 games and multiple other teams have to lose, and must lose certain games not just 1 0f the last 2.  That makes us a longshot.

 

There are 4 teams at 8-6, if I recall correctly.  The reality is all of those teams have much, much better chance of being in the playoffs.

 

I'm not trying to be the wet blanket here, I'm just saying lets ground this thing in reality.  If the Bills win out and several other teams lose certain games we can get in.  And that is a great and hopeful thing.  And I read this thread daily to remind me of who I need to root for this week (I'm still a little confused on whether I'm rooting for Denver or Cinci to win). More importantly, I think we should all congratulate this team for playing tough; thereby, allowing us to have these discussions!

874115[/snapback]

 

Thank you for being the voice of reason speaking in a whirlwind of unbounded optimism. But the REALITY is this Bills team does have chance with only two weeks remaining. And if they win this week, which I personally believe they will, they will have a shot again next weeking going into the final game of the season.

 

If anyone can honestly say he thought that this would be the inevitable end of the 2006 season he's only lying to himself.

[ezbills]

I understand and truly appreciate the optimism in this thread, but the reality is the Bills are not likely to be in the playoffs.  They have to win their last 2 games and multiple other teams have to lose, and must lose certain games not just 1 0f the last 2.  That makes us a longshot.

 

There are 4 teams at 8-6, if I recall correctly.  The reality is all of those teams have much, much better chance of being in the playoffs.

 

I'm not trying to be the wet blanket here, I'm just saying lets ground this thing in reality.  If the Bills win out and several other teams lose certain games we can get in.  And that is a great and hopeful thing.  And I read this thread daily to remind me of who I need to root for this week (I'm still a little confused on whether I'm rooting for Denver or Cinci to win). More importantly, I think we should all congratulate this team for playing tough; thereby, allowing us to have these discussions!

874115[/snapback]

 

My thinking is that we have the next several days or weeks to talk about making the playoffs this season, but we will have months of the offseason to "congratulate this team for playing tough."

 

Frankly, I'm tired of moral victories and "making progress." Call me greedy, but I want wins and playoff runs!!!

 

I don't want to dampen optimism for next season (which I myself have), but take a look at the Bills records the past several seasons. After a dismal 2001 season, things looked much better in 2002 and the Bills finished 8-8. Instead of building on this improvement, the Bills went in reverse in 2003.

 

The Bills started crappy in 2004 but then won 6 in a row and missed the playoffs on the final day of the season, finishing 9-7. Instead of building on this improvement, the Bills went in reverse in 2005.

 

If the Bills finish 8-8 this year and don't make the playoffs, there's no guarantee that we'll take the next step in '07.

[Ozymandius]

If the Bills finish 8-8 this year and don't make the playoffs, there's no guarantee that we'll take the next step in '07.

874138[/snapback]

Good point. I feel the same way. It'd be one thing if we were rich and we know we can spend this offseason. But instead, we may be relying on the draft just to tread water by replacing guys like Clements and Fletch.

[H2o]

....And the Cincinatti loss on MNF means the Ravens clinched - so a Buffalo win on New Year's Eve is more likely.

871841[/snapback]

 

Yeah, but the Ravens are still fighting for a first round bye and a divisional home game if they can get the second seed It will most definitely be a tough game for us. I think the Tennessee game has me even more worried than that one though. If we win this game it will be HUGE. We need to win games of importance and not just win a few here and there. I'd say that we've made a giant step towards credibility as a franchise again if we win this week. I personally believe that we've already made great strides this year as a team, but this game holds the entirety of our season in the palm of it's hand. Gooooooo Bills!!!

[Dan]

Thank you for being the voice of reason speaking in a whirlwind of unbounded optimism.  But the REALITY is this Bills team does have chance with only two weeks remaining.  And if they win this week, which I personally believe they will, they will have a shot again next weeking going into the final game of the season. 

 

If anyone can honestly say he thought that this would be the inevitable end of the 2006 season he's only lying to himself.

874128[/snapback]

 

This team has a great chance! And I've told everyone exactly what I want for Christmas... a Bills win and a Jet loss. That's it! Because that will give us an excellent chance going into the final week of the season. Man how much fun will that be!

 

 

Ez: I completely agree we don't need to wast playoff shots, but I don't think this team is going to fold like others have. I truly feel this team is turning up and next year we'll be even better than this year. That still, by no means, guarantees a playoff game next year. Entirely too many things can happen during the course of a full season. But I do feel optimistic about this team; and I must admit going into the '05 season, I didn't feel the same.

 

This team has me feeling hopeful again. Each week my hope and optimism grows. I actually had moments during the game last week where I thought, "JP's gonna do something here" Or when he threw long I actually expected a completion rather than an interception. It's been years since I could say something like that.

 

Perhaps I'm the only one. But, this team is seeming to come together and truely play well together. I really think our success next season will depend largely on how much Marv can keep this team together and add to it in a few key areas. (read: Don't let Nate or Fletcher go)

[ezbills]

This team has a great chance!  And I've told everyone exactly what I want for Christmas... a Bills win and a Jet loss.  That's it!  Because that will give us an excellent chance going into the final week of the season.  Man how much fun will that be!

Ez:  I completely agree we don't need to wast playoff shots, but I don't think this team is going to fold like others have.  I truly feel this team is turning up and next year we'll be even better than this year.  That still, by no means, guarantees a playoff game next year.  Entirely too many things can happen during the course of a full season.  But I do feel optimistic about this team; and I must admit going into the '05 season, I didn't feel the same. 

 

This team has me feeling hopeful again.  Each week my hope and optimism grows.  I actually had moments during the game last week where I thought, "JP's gonna do something here" Or when he threw long I actually expected a completion rather than an interception.  It's been years since I could say something like that. 

 

Perhaps I'm the only one.  But, this team is seeming to come together and truely play well together. I really think our success next season will depend largely on how much Marv can keep this team together and add to it in a few key areas.  (read: Don't let Nate or Fletcher go)

874152[/snapback]

 

I agree 100%. This team has had a swagger about it the past few weeks that I haven't seen in quite a while. JP's hit on Thomas last week was a thing of beauty. I truly believe that they could give one of the division winners a run for their money in the wildcard round if they make the playoffs. I also think this team will build on this season through the draft and free agency unlike in years past.

 

I'm about to head out to WNY for Christmas and the Bills/Titans game and I hope to see many of you there. I may not be posting again for a while, so I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas. GO BILLS (and Chiefs, and Pats, and Dolphins)!!!

[Orton's Arm]

Please tell me that there's not actually a regression toward the mean thread...

 

873680[/snapback]

Sick already? Prepare to get even worse!

1) There's a regression toward the mean thread.

2) The thread's 19 pages long.

3) The thread remained on track (more or less) for all 19 pages.

4) That thread is actually a continuation of a larger regression toward the mean debate that consumed at least 50 pages.

5) The debate was about whether people who obtain extreme scores on imperfect tests will tend to score somewhat closer to the population's mean upon being retested.

6) I eventually found quotes from Stanford, Berkeley, the University of Chicago, the EPA, the University of Washington, Ohio State, and other sources which stated that those who obtain extreme scores on imperfect tests tend to score closer to the population mean upon being retested.

 

You'd think those quotes would be enough to close the mouths of those who'd disagreed with me. But two of my opponents have proven especially stubborn.

[Orton's Arm]

I agree 100%. This team has had a swagger about it the past few weeks that I haven't seen in quite a while. JP's hit on Thomas last week was a thing of beauty. I truly believe that they could give one of the division winners a run for their money in the wildcard round if they make the playoffs. I also think this team will build on this season through the draft and free agency unlike in years past.

 

I'm about to head out to WNY for Christmas and the Bills/Titans game and I hope to see many of you there. I may not be posting again for a while,    so I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas. GO BILLS (and Chiefs, and Pats, and Dolphins)!!!

874303[/snapback]

I share your feeling of optimism about this team. If the Bills get into the playoffs, I at very least expect them to put up a good fight.

 

There's so much to like about this team. We had absolutely no right to expect this quality of offensive line play at this point in the season. Jason Peters was moved to left tackle only a few weeks ago. Pennington is a rookie and a 7th round pick. Mike Gandy has never played guard for the Bills. Fowler is new to the team; and Preston is a first-year starter. McNally has surpassed his reputation as an offensive line coach. As for Fairchild, nobody can question his commitment to the run. But the offense also has a Rams-like ability to hurt defenses with the deep pass. I don't see how this group of players could possibly be doing better with some other offensive coordinator than they are with Fairchild.

 

You've got a solid coaching staff that interacts well with the front office. I'm a little unhappy with how our defensive scheme does against the run, but overall I feel this team is on the right track, both for this year and next.