ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 Assuming you are using some sort of software and it wouldn't take too long to calculate, could you show the effect of a KC loss to Oakland this week? I feel like it is the third most important game this week behind Bills-Titans and Jets-Miami but hasn't received a lot of mention. While KC is a 6.5 point favorite right now, this still is a primetime road game for the Chiefs, and Oakland played them very tough the first time around. 872237[/snapback] I've got this on paper but I don't have it in electronic form or else I'd send it out to whoever wants it. I could probably type it up in Excel if people would find that useful. A KC loss to OAK does little damage to the Bills if Miami actually beats the Jets. The Bills would make it into the playoffs in 48 of 64 scenarios where KC and MIA win, while they would make it in 44 of 64 scenarios where OAK and MIA win. However, if the Jets beat MIA, a KC loss to OAK would be very bad. The Bills would make the playoffs in 9 of 64 scenarios with KC and NYJ wins, but there would only be 3 of 64 scenarios where the Bills could get in with wins by both OAK and NYJ. So, the KC/OAK game is also important to those of us not wanting the Bills' hopes to rest on Miami....
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 I'm doing the same. Thanks for your hard work and analysis. 872252[/snapback] Thanks. Maybe I should have asked my guidance counselor in high school about becoming a stats guy for the Bills?!?
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 This is really the key scenario here. Most of the games this week are straightforward with regard to which team to root for. But who do we root for in the Denver-Cincy game? At first glance, some may root for Denver since it is one of 4 outcomes needed for the Bills to control their own destiny. However, the order in which the games will be played makes rooting for Cincy more palatable, and I think you'd agree, ezbills. A Denver win followed by a Jets win on Monday night is a virtual death blow to the Bills playoff chances because we would then be tied to SF beating Denver in Mile High Week 17. A Cincy win gives us reasonable outs should the Jets also win. Whether you root for Denver or Cincy depends on your confidence in Miami beating the Jets. I personally am not very confident in the Dolphins winning there. In my Week 16 rooting post I gave Cincy beating Denver an importance of 4 and Denver beating Cincy an importance of 2. 872251[/snapback] I say we definitely want the Bengals to win against Denver. I think it's more likely that SF and/or PIT will pull off wins in Week 17 than it is that Miami will beat the Jets. The 49ers and Steelers are still in the playoff hunt (as of now) and have played well lately while Miami is, well, Miami. A Denver win does not help us that much anyway should Miami actually beat the Jets.
bobblehead Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Thanks. Maybe I should have asked my guidance counselor in high school about becoming a stats guy for the Bills?!? 872266[/snapback] Now, what are the scenarios if the Bills lose ?
RuntheDamnBall Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Now, what are the scenarios if the Bills lose ? 872275[/snapback]
aussiew Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 All this is too complicated. I'm still stuck on the fact that I'm supposed to root for Miami next week.
Nervous Guy Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Now, what are the scenarios if the Bills lose ? 872275[/snapback] :finger:
Ozymandius Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 I've got this on paper but I don't have it in electronic form or else I'd send it out to whoever wants it. I could probably type it up in Excel if people would find that useful. A KC loss to OAK does little damage to the Bills if Miami actually beats the Jets. The Bills would make it into the playoffs in 48 of 64 scenarios where KC and MIA win, while they would make it in 44 of 64 scenarios where OAK and MIA win. However, if the Jets beat MIA, a KC loss to OAK would be very bad. The Bills would make the playoffs in 9 of 64 scenarios with KC and NYJ wins, but there would only be 3 of 64 scenarios where the Bills could get in with wins by both OAK and NYJ. So, the KC/OAK game is also important to those of us not wanting the Bills' hopes to rest on Miami.... 872260[/snapback] Cool. Thanks for laying that out for me. It seems like whatever you have laid down on paper, you're able to work out the scenarios fairly quickly.
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 Cool. Thanks for laying that out for me.It seems like whatever you have laid down on paper, you're able to work out the scenarios fairly quickly. 872288[/snapback] It's basically a spreadsheet that I filled in during last night's game. A lot of the scenarios are pretty easy to figure out because they either have 2 or more teams with 10 wins so the Bills are obviously out, or there are only one or two other teams we'd be tied with at 9-7 so we're in.
bobblehead Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 872279[/snapback] During the Williams/Mularkey years, a game like this game coming up would be exactly the kind of game where Buffalo would have wilted and got crushed hard. Every time. No, seriously, Every. Time. Buffalo would be in a spot where people were starting to take notice of them, where they would win a couple of games, where all of a sudden something was on the line that could vastly improve their lot on life in the league, you could always count on Buffalo to fold. And not just get beat, but humiliated. Think KC on that Sunday night, think Baltimore when fuggin Deion intercepted Bledsoe at the end. Think those Patriots games, think fuggin Pittsburgh. Think Tampa Bay the second game last year. This year though, it has been different. Indy, Jax, SD, the Jets, and Miami all presented that same scenario, where Buffalo was starting to put something together, and people were starting to notice. And even though Buffalo lost to Indy and SD, they were in both of those games until the end, they did not wilt. This is why I think this year will be different. Still, counting on Miami for anything give me the chills.
The Big Cat Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Now, what are the scenarios if the Bills lose ? 872275[/snapback] TSW flooded with threads about everyone's favorite non-Buffalo offensive lineman, defensitve tackles, and wide receivers.
ezbills Posted December 20, 2006 Author Posted December 20, 2006 An easier way to condense the playoff possibilities is to assume that KC and NYJ will both beat Oakland. That would leave just 6 total games other than Buffalo's that will have an impact (those of DEN, CIN, JAX, and KC). Of 64 possible scenarios, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 and miss in 31 if they win out. Here's a breakdown of the 8 possible Week 16 results in order from best to worst: NE-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would control their own destiny at Baltimore (assuming that they will win the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Cincy) NE-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 7 of 8 Week 17 scenarios, needing only one loss by JAX, CIN, or DEN in Week 16. JAX-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 5 of 8 scenarios, needing either a KC win or a win by both PIT and SF. JAX-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would have a 50-50 shot because they would need KC to beat JAX in order to get in. NE-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 3 of 8 scenarios, needing a PIT win and also a win by either KC or SF. JAX-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and PIT. DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and SF to get in. 872202[/snapback] I double-checked this and I'm pretty sure it's all accurate. Here's a revised version that has the same information but takes into account the fact that the Jets/Raiders game is only relevant if the Jets beat Miami. Assuming that KC will beat OAK this weekend: NE-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would control their own destiny at Baltimore (assuming that they will win the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Cincy) NE-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 7 of 8 Week 17 scenarios, needing only one loss by JAX, CIN, or DEN in Week 17. JAX-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 5 of 8 scenarios, needing either a KC win over JAX or a win by both PIT and SF in Week 17. JAX-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would have a 50-50 shot because they would need KC to beat JAX in order to get in. NE-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 3 of 16 scenarios, needing an NYJ win over OAK, a PIT win over CIN, and also a win in Week 17 by either KC or SF. JAX-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would have a 1 in 8 chance, needing Week 17 wins by NYJ, KC, and PIT. DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 8 chance, needing Week 17 wins by NYJ, KC, and SF.
bobblehead Posted December 20, 2006 Posted December 20, 2006 TSW flooded with threads about everyone's favorite non-Buffalo offensive lineman, defensitve tackles, and wide receivers. 872350[/snapback] Doesn't matter, since they will be moving to Los Angeles if they lose....
drnykterstein Posted December 20, 2006 Posted December 20, 2006 I can't believe I'm going to say this but... Go Miami. But my true love belongs to the Bills. 871639[/snapback] We are not rooting for the fish to win... we are wooting for the jets to win. it does not matter what the fish do as they are out of the playoffs.
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted December 20, 2006 Posted December 20, 2006 Now, what are the scenarios if the Bills lose ? 872275[/snapback] START LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT SEASON. BUT DON'T JINX IT! I almost got burned on my shutout prediction last week.
ezbills Posted December 20, 2006 Author Posted December 20, 2006 START LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT SEASON. BUT DON'T JINX IT! I almost got burned on my shutout prediction last week. 873350[/snapback] I agree. There may be some possibility of the Bills getting in at 8-8 but it would be a longshot. These next two games are already the playoffs for the Bills just like the past 2 games have been.
Orton's Arm Posted December 20, 2006 Posted December 20, 2006 How much of that is measurement error? 871915[/snapback] Most Bills fans are able to enjoy the fact that this team still has a legitimate shot at the playoffs with only two weeks to go. These people are able to enjoy thinking through the various scenarios, and mulling over which team to root for in the Denver/Bengals game. But not you. You saw the word "statistical" in the thread's title, and decided to once again expose the world to your ignorance about a specific statistical phenomenon. I'd appreciate it if in the future you confine your ignorance to the "regression toward the mean" thread over on the PPP boards. Thanks.
Orton's Arm Posted December 20, 2006 Posted December 20, 2006 I know I'm going against the grain here, but I'll be rooting for Denver in their game against the Bengals. To my way of thinking, the Dolphins almost have to beat the Jets for the Bills to have a real shot. Assuming the Dolphins and Bills both win, then all that's necessary for the Bills to control their own destiny is a New England win over Jacksonville, and the Broncos win over the Bengals.
dundy249 Posted December 21, 2006 Posted December 21, 2006 ...does it take into account regression toward the mean? 871814[/snapback] I think maybe we need to do an opportunity flow diagram and analyze the mean versus the median. After that maybe will better understand the control limits of the situation
Bungee Jumper Posted December 21, 2006 Posted December 21, 2006 Most Bills fans are able to enjoy the fact that this team still has a legitimate shot at the playoffs with only two weeks to go. These people are able to enjoy thinking through the various scenarios, and mulling over which team to root for in the Denver/Bengals game. But not you. You saw the word "statistical" in the thread's title, and decided to once again expose the world to your ignorance about a specific statistical phenomenon. I'd appreciate it if in the future you confine your ignorance to the "regression toward the mean" thread over on the PPP boards. Thanks. 873604[/snapback] You cute when you're pwned.
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