Bungee Jumper Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 How much of that is measurement error?
Spun Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Holy number crunchers Batman. What are you a wizard? Where did you get all this? MIT homework assignment? I can't help but think of a couple of years back when the Bills no showed against the Steelers' third teamers. It is a different team with a lot of young players on the rise. Take it to them Bills!
Kgun5 Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Holy number crunchers Batman. What are you a wizard? Where did you get all this? MIT homework assignment? I can't help but think of a couple of years back when the Bills no showed against the Steelers' third teamers. It is a different team with a lot of young players on the rise. Take it to them Bills! 871922[/snapback] It's also on the road in a game that will very well mean something to the opponent. Maybe that will mean less pressure in terms of choking, but it will certainly mean more pressure in terms of Raven defenders bearing down on J.P.
Sen. John Blutarsky Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 My God...I have to root for New England AND Miami in the same week...
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 Holy number crunchers Batman. What are you a wizard? Where did you get all this? MIT homework assignment? I can't help but think of a couple of years back when the Bills no showed against the Steelers' third teamers. It is a different team with a lot of young players on the rise. Take it to them Bills! 871922[/snapback] Here's a new formula that I think explains it: Bills not making playoffs in 7 seasons + Bills not winning playoff game in 11 seasons x wanting to hear the national media explain how the terrible Bills pulled off a miracle to make the playoffs + having to watch Collins-Hobert-Flutie-Johnson-Bledsoe-Holcomb for the past decade/ the chance that Buffalo could actually beat the Colts or Pats in the first round = The chance that we're all crazy for figuring this stuff out
Sen. John Blutarsky Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 the chance that Buffalo could actually beat the Colts or Pats in the first round = The chance that we're all crazy for figuring this stuff out 871940[/snapback] We can take New England, they're ripe for a pretty vicious beating...plus it'd be the 3rd meeting. Historically it's VERY difficult for a team to beat another team 3 times in the same season. This is a much different team than the one that played them before the bye week.
Kgun5 Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 We can take New England, they're ripe for a pretty vicious beating...plus it'd be the 3rd meeting. Historically it's VERY difficult for a team to beat another team 3 times in the same season. This is a much different team than the one that played them before the bye week. 871945[/snapback] I think we would want to play to our strengths, which would mean avoiding a coach that will take advantage of our weaknesses. Give me Baltimore (who we would have just beaten in their barn), San Diego (with Marty Chokenheimer as HC), or Indianapolis (who will again shoulder a ton of pressure to get to the big game). New England would be too much drama for a young team all hyped up. The Patriots would be unfazed, as usual.
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 My choice is Indy. The Bills should be able to run on them with both Willis and A-Train in the backfield, and the Colts special teams looked average or worse last night. If the Bills D could hold the Colts offense largely in check like they did in the regular season game, this could be a very competitive game. I just hope it wouldn't come down to the Colts with a few point lead with 5 minutes left trying to run the clock down!
Willis990 Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 The Colts win over the Bengals was huge and gives Buffalo about a 50-50 chance of getting into the playoffs if they win their final 2 games. Not including the Bills games, there are 8 remaining games left that will impact the Bills' chances (the DEN, CIN, NYJ, JAX, and KC games). There are 256 possible combinations of results in those games, excluding ties. OVERALL PICTURE: Of the 256 possible outcomes, 104 would put the Bills in the playoffs while 152 would leave them out. However, 2 of the 8 games involve the hapless Oakland Raiders in games that the Bills want Oakland to lose (if the Jets beat Miami, the Jets MUST beat Oakland for the Bills to stay alive). Assuming that the Raiders will lose both of those games, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 of the remaining scenarios while only 31 would leave the Bills out of the picture. IMPORTANCE OF SPECIFIC GAMES: MIA vs NYJ: This game is incredibly important for the Bills chances. If Miami wins, the Bills would make the playoffs in 92 of 128 scenarios. A Dolphins win here plus a Pats win over the Jags would put the Bills in the playoffs in 58 of 64 scenarios. If the Jets win, however, the Bills would only make the playoffs in 12 of 128 possible scenarios. We want the Bengals to beat Denver next week because that would make it more likely that the Bills could still get in even if NYJ beats MIA. Jags 2 games: As a group, the Jags games against NE and KC are quite important. If the Jags win both games, the Bills can only get into the playoffs in 4 of 64 scenarios. If the Jags lose to KC in Week 17, however, the Bills would make the playoffs in 70 of 128 scenarios and miss in only 58. WE ARE NOT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS. STOP DREAMING. DEN vs. CIN: As of now, the Bills would make the playoffs in 52 of 128 scenarios regardless of who wins this game. However, a Cincy win would improve the Bills slight chance to get in if the Jets beat Miami, while a Denver win would improve the Bills' already great chances if Miami wins. The remaining games don't have as much bearing on the overall picture as of now. The bottom line is that the playoffs are a very real possibility for the Bills if they win their final 2 games. WE NEED THE 12TH MAN IN FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY!!! 871637[/snapback]
Gamer Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Great analysis, supports what I was finding. As another wrinkle, I believeit is also possible for the Bills to get in at 8-8 with a lot of help. If NYJ-MIA-BUF end in 3-way tie, Bills win tiebreak based on 3-1 head to head vs 2-2 for NY and 1-3 for MIA. Winner of Cinn-Den gets 5 seed and need everyone else to finish 8-8 or worse. Several tie break scenarios occur which also possibly pull in Pitt and Tenn.
Spun Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Here's a new formula that I think explains it: Bills not making playoffs in 7 seasons + Bills not winning playoff game in 11 seasons x wanting to hear the national media explain how the terrible Bills pulled off a miracle to make the playoffs + having to watch Collins-Hobert-Flutie-Johnson-Bledsoe-Holcomb for the past decade/ the chance that Buffalo could actually beat the Colts or Pats in the first round = The chance that we're all crazy for figuring this stuff out 871940[/snapback] I can stomach a meaningful win over the Pats. Damn sick of them. Time to go back down to the cellar. A game against the Chargers concerns me. The improvements are no fluke. Losman and the defense are playing solid. I would like more production from the running game. Remember that Patriots game when the refs gave the pats an extra down? I think they also dramatically screwed up on a mark in the same game that eventually led to the Pats winning the game. Then the tuck game. The Pats certainly aren't all about luck but they have had their share. It is time for them to go away. But I am getting ahead of the ball. A lot has to happen for the Bills to make it into the playoffs. It would be a nice payoff for the turnaround! Let the planets align!
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 An easier way to condense the playoff possibilities is to assume that KC and NYJ will both beat Oakland. That would leave just 6 total games other than Buffalo's that will have an impact (those of DEN, CIN, JAX, and KC). Of 64 possible scenarios, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 and miss in 31 if they win out. Here's a breakdown of the 8 possible Week 16 results in order from best to worst: NE-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would control their own destiny at Baltimore (assuming that they will win the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Cincy) NE-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 7 of 8 Week 17 scenarios, needing only one loss by JAX, CIN, or DEN in Week 16. JAX-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 5 of 8 scenarios, needing either a KC win or a win by both PIT and SF. JAX-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would have a 50-50 shot because they would need KC to beat JAX in order to get in. NE-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 3 of 8 scenarios, needing a PIT win and also a win by either KC or SF. JAX-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and PIT. DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and SF to get in.
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 Excellent, excellent stuff ezbills. 872226[/snapback] Thanks!
bobblehead Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 An easier way to condense the playoff possibilities is to assume that KC and NYJ will both beat Oakland. That would leave just 6 total games other than Buffalo's that will have an impact (those of DEN, CIN, JAX, and KC). Of 64 possible scenarios, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 and miss in 31 if they win out. Here's a breakdown of the 8 possible Week 16 results in order from best to worst: NE-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would control their own destiny at Baltimore (assuming that they will win the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Cincy) NE-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 7 of 8 Week 17 scenarios, needing only one loss by JAX, CIN, or DEN in Week 16. JAX-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 5 of 8 scenarios, needing either a KC win or a win by both PIT and SF. JAX-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would have a 50-50 shot because they would need KC to beat JAX in order to get in. NE-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 3 of 8 scenarios, needing a PIT win and also a win by either KC or SF. JAX-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and PIT. DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and SF to get in. 872202[/snapback] This is the post that I am printing out to hang onto this weekend.
Ozymandius Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Assuming you are using some sort of software and it wouldn't take too long to calculate, could you show the effect of a KC loss to Oakland this week? I feel like it is the third most important game this week behind Bills-Titans and Jets-Miami but hasn't received a lot of mention. While KC is a 6.5 point favorite right now, this still is a primetime road game for the Chiefs, and Oakland played them very tough the first time around.
Ozymandius Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and SF to get in. 872202[/snapback] This is really the key scenario here. Most of the games this week are straightforward with regard to which team to root for. But who do we root for in the Denver-Cincy game? At first glance, some may root for Denver since it is one of 4 outcomes needed for the Bills to control their own destiny. However, the order in which the games will be played makes rooting for Cincy more palatable, and I think you'd agree, ezbills. A Denver win followed by a Jets win on Monday night is a virtual death blow to the Bills playoff chances because we would then be tied to SF beating Denver in Mile High Week 17. A Cincy win gives us reasonable outs should the Jets also win. Whether you root for Denver or Cincy depends on your confidence in Miami beating the Jets. I personally am not very confident in the Dolphins winning there. In my Week 16 rooting post I gave Cincy beating Denver an importance of 4 and Denver beating Cincy an importance of 2.
Olaf Fub Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 This is the post that I am printing out to hang onto this weekend. 872236[/snapback] I'm doing the same. Thanks for your hard work and analysis.
Matt in KC Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 This is the post that I am printing out to hang onto this weekend. 872236[/snapback] I agree. Great work! ...if it's accurate
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