ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 The Colts win over the Bengals was huge and gives Buffalo about a 50-50 chance of getting into the playoffs if they win their final 2 games. Not including the Bills games, there are 8 remaining games left that will impact the Bills' chances (the DEN, CIN, NYJ, JAX, and KC games). There are 256 possible combinations of results in those games, excluding ties. OVERALL PICTURE: Of the 256 possible outcomes, 104 would put the Bills in the playoffs while 152 would leave them out. However, 2 of the 8 games involve the hapless Oakland Raiders in games that the Bills want Oakland to lose (if the Jets beat Miami, the Jets MUST beat Oakland for the Bills to stay alive). Assuming that the Raiders will lose both of those games, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 of the remaining scenarios while only 31 would leave the Bills out of the picture. IMPORTANCE OF SPECIFIC GAMES: MIA vs NYJ: This game is incredibly important for the Bills chances. If Miami wins, the Bills would make the playoffs in 92 of 128 scenarios. A Dolphins win here plus a Pats win over the Jags would put the Bills in the playoffs in 58 of 64 scenarios. If the Jets win, however, the Bills would only make the playoffs in 12 of 128 possible scenarios. We want the Bengals to beat Denver next week because that would make it more likely that the Bills could still get in even if NYJ beats MIA. Jags 2 games: As a group, the Jags games against NE and KC are quite important. If the Jags win both games, the Bills can only get into the playoffs in 4 of 64 scenarios. If the Jags lose to KC in Week 17, however, the Bills would make the playoffs in 70 of 128 scenarios and miss in only 58. DEN vs. CIN: As of now, the Bills would make the playoffs in 52 of 128 scenarios regardless of who wins this game. However, a Cincy win would improve the Bills slight chance to get in if the Jets beat Miami, while a Denver win would improve the Bills' already great chances if Miami wins. The remaining games don't have as much bearing on the overall picture as of now. The bottom line is that the playoffs are a very real possibility for the Bills if they win their final 2 games. WE NEED THE 12TH MAN IN FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY!!!
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 I can't believe I'm going to say this but... Go Miami. But my true love belongs to the Bills.
eball Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 This is amazing, I have to admit. Next week's game is so huge. Buffalo has to get it done at home -- and not JUST because I already have tickets to the New Year's Eve tilt at Baltimore.
BuffOrange Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Good breakdown. I'm assuming those scenerios don't factor in money lines or anything. All the teams we want to win next week are slight favorites, so probably a little better than 50/50.
Tortured Soul Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Good breakdown. I'm assuming those scenerios don't factor in money lines or anything. All the teams we want to win next week are slight favorites, so probably a little better than 50/50. 871644[/snapback] except new england
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 Good breakdown. I'm assuming those scenerios don't factor in money lines or anything. All the teams we want to win next week are slight favorites, so probably a little better than 50/50. 871644[/snapback] Thanks. This is based strictly on possible win-loss combinations and does not take lines, homefield, injuries etc. into account. All of the games (beside the Oakland games) feature roughly even matchups between two playoff contenders except for the Jets-Fins game which is also pretty even.
syhuang Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 If I understand the post right, the 50% conclusion doesn't include two Bills games. Thus, assume Bills have 50% chance to win each of their next two games, the overall percetange of making playoff should be around 12.5% (50% * 25%).
BuffOrange Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 except new england 871648[/snapback] sh-- you're right - I thought that game was in NE for some reason.
Ozymandius Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 We want the Bengals to beat Denver next week because that would make it more likely that the Bills could still get in even if NYJ beats MIA. 871637[/snapback] Agreed. I've been going back and forth on this game all day but I've finally determined that I can't trust Miami to beat the Jets, even at home on X-mas day. Not when all the motivation is on the Jets side. Great job once again.
Koufax Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 except new england 871648[/snapback] Depends if you are going Vegas or common sense. I have the Pats as a common sense favorite over the Jags as a better team playing better football in a non-hostile road venue. The 50/50 is definitely not counting the Bills winning. I'm definitely going to be rooting for them, but smart cash is not on the Bills beating Baltimore in Baltimore in a game that will likely matter to Baltimore. The Bills are definitely the favorite against Tennessee (maybe 60%) and definitely the underdog at Baltimore (maybe 30% if Baltimore if the game matters to Baltimore). But the 50/50 on winning out getting the Bills into the playoffs sounds about right and is a pretty exciting thing.
beausox Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 The Colts win over the Bengals was huge and gives Buffalo about a 50-50 chance of getting into the playoffs if they win their final 2 games. Not including the Bills games, there are 8 remaining games left that will impact the Bills' chances (the DEN, CIN, NYJ, JAX, and KC games). There are 256 possible combinations of results in those games, excluding ties. OVERALL PICTURE: Of the 256 possible outcomes, 104 would put the Bills in the playoffs while 152 would leave them out. However, 2 of the 8 games involve the hapless Oakland Raiders in games that the Bills want Oakland to lose (if the Jets beat Miami, the Jets MUST beat Oakland for the Bills to stay alive). Assuming that the Raiders will lose both of those games, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 of the remaining scenarios while only 31 would leave the Bills out of the picture. IMPORTANCE OF SPECIFIC GAMES: MIA vs NYJ: This game is incredibly important for the Bills chances. If Miami wins, the Bills would make the playoffs in 92 of 128 scenarios. A Dolphins win here plus a Pats win over the Jags would put the Bills in the playoffs in 58 of 64 scenarios. If the Jets win, however, the Bills would only make the playoffs in 12 of 128 possible scenarios. We want the Bengals to beat Denver next week because that would make it more likely that the Bills could still get in even if NYJ beats MIA. Jags 2 games: As a group, the Jags games against NE and KC are quite important. If the Jags win both games, the Bills can only get into the playoffs in 4 of 64 scenarios. If the Jags lose to KC in Week 17, however, the Bills would make the playoffs in 70 of 128 scenarios and miss in only 58. DEN vs. CIN: As of now, the Bills would make the playoffs in 52 of 128 scenarios regardless of who wins this game. However, a Cincy win would improve the Bills slight chance to get in if the Jets beat Miami, while a Denver win would improve the Bills' already great chances if Miami wins. The remaining games don't have as much bearing on the overall picture as of now. The bottom line is that the playoffs are a very real possibility for the Bills if they win their final 2 games. WE NEED THE 12TH MAN IN FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY!!! 871637[/snapback] Had I only known the relevance of ststistics to my life I would have embraced standard deviation for the right reason to have been devaiate! Thanks to all you upon whom my laziness relies
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 If I understand the post right, the 50% conclusion doesn't include two Bills games. Thus, assume Bills have 50% chance to win each of their next two games, the overall percetange of making playoff should be around 12.5% (50% * 25%). 871660[/snapback] That's right. I'm sure when the season started, or when the Bills were 2-5, that most of us would have loved to have the Bills with a 50% chance of making the playoffs if they win their final 2 games.
Bill from NYC Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Do the titans have the same or similar chances?
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 Do the titans have the same or similar chances? 871802[/snapback] I believe that their chances are slimmer than the Bills due to their AFC record, although they should hold the tiebreaker over the Jags within their own division. They are definitely in the hunt though and the winner of this week's game will be 8-7 with a good or decent shot of making the playoffs.
Nervous Guy Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Thanks. This is based strictly on possible win-loss combinations and does not take lines, homefield, injuries etc. into account. All of the games (beside the Oakland games) feature roughly even matchups between two playoff contenders except for the Jets-Fins game which is also pretty even. 871650[/snapback] ...does it take into account regression toward the mean?
Ned Flanders Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 However, 2 of the 8 games involve the hapless Oakland Raiders in games that the Bills want Oakland to lose (if the Jets beat Miami, the Jets MUST beat Oakland for the Bills to stay alive). 871637[/snapback] Don't understand how the Jets beating Oakland benefits the Bills...some crazy ninth level tiebreaker?
Florida_BillsFan Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 ....And the Cincinatti loss on MNF means the Ravens clinched - so a Buffalo win on New Year's Eve is more likely.
Buffalo Baumer Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Don't understand how the Jets beating Oakland benefits the Bills...some crazy ninth level tiebreaker? 871815[/snapback] It must have to do with strength of opponent tiebreaker for another team
Ozymandius Posted December 19, 2006 Posted December 19, 2006 Don't understand how the Jets beating Oakland benefits the Bills...some crazy ninth level tiebreaker? 871815[/snapback] No. If the Jets beat Miami, we want them to go ahead and finish 10-6 and not be lumped in together with the 9-7 tiebreaker teams. Because if the Jets beat Miami, they will automatically eliminate the Bills in any scenario where we have the same record.
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Author Posted December 19, 2006 No. If the Jets beat Miami, we want them to go ahead and finish 10-6 and not be lumped in together with the 9-7 tiebreaker teams. Because if the Jets beat Miami, they will automatically eliminate the Bills in any scenario where we have the same record. 871856[/snapback] Exactly. If the Jets beat Miami and then lose to Oakland to finish at 9-7, the winner of the Bengals-Broncos game will finish ahead of NYJ which ensures that Buffalo can finish no better than 3rd in the race for 2 spots.
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