pBills Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 I like Peerless' scenarios.... win out and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 In that case, one scenario to get the #5 seed would be: Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh Jets lose to Miami KC beats Oakland and Jax 871106[/snapback] This is a good scenario, although we would not need all of this just to get a playoff spot. The playoff scenario that seems the most likely to me is: - IND beats CIN (tonight) - DEN beats CIN (Week 16) - JAX loses to NE (Week 16) (or KC in Week 17) - MIA beats NYJ (Week 16) This would actually put the Bills in the driver's seat going into the final week with the only potential problem being the Bengals/ Bills strength of victory tiebreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 I like Peerless' scenarios.... win out and see what happens. 871116[/snapback] Ya know, somehow that's the one that makes the most sense to me too - that way I don't need a freakin' Excel spreadsheet to watch the games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 I know the information, however after seeing so many of them... well, I have a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Ya know, somehow that's the one that makes the most sense to me too - that way I don't need a freakin' Excel spreadsheet to watch the games. 871120[/snapback] Hmm, an Excel spreadsheet might be handy! For some fans, the ignorance is bliss approach to the Bills playoff chances is the most enjoyable. I've been posting on the playoff scenarios for those of us who want to know all the details. To each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 One scenario I haven't seen mentioned yet is: Can Buffalo win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver without KC around to knock out Denver? The answer I come up with is: I think so. I might need some help with this one, ezbills and others. If Jacksonville makes the playoffs by beating both NE and KC to finish 10-6, and then the following happened: - Miami beats Jets to knock out Jets - Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh - Denver loses to Cincy and beats SF That leaves Buff, Cincy, and Denver all at 9-7/7-5. Cincy would have head-to-head against Denver but that isn't applicable since the Bills didn't play either team. Conference record is even for all at 7-5. Now here's the key. The next tiebreaker is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." Does this mean common games between all three teams? If that is the case, then this tiebreaker is not applicable because there hasn't been four common games between all three clubs. However, if they apply this tiebreaker by matching the teams head-to-head in twosomes, then Denver would defeat Cincy in this tiebreaker and Denver would defeat Buffalo in this tiebreaker. Therefore, Denver would get the wildcard. However, I think "common games" must apply to all three teams in this scenario (similar to how Cincy's win over Denver isn't applicable unless they beat Buffalo also). Therefore, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, where Buffalo owns Denver even worse than Cincy. So, I think under this scenario where Jacksonville makes the playoffs and KC isn't around to knockout Denver, we can win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Didn't you hear? We'll be blacked out, Clements is as good as gone, Ralph will die and the team will move to LA! The playoffs don't matter! The sky is falling, dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasBB Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 However, I think "common games" must apply to all three teams in this scenario (similar to how Cincy's win over Denver isn't applicable unless they beat Buffalo also). Therefore, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, where Buffalo owns Denver even worse than Cincy. So, I think under this scenario where Jacksonville makes the playoffs and KC isn't around to knockout Denver, we can win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver. 871166[/snapback] Wow -- this will need some clarification from the NFL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 One scenario I haven't seen mentioned yet is: Can Buffalo win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver without KC around to knock out Denver? The answer I come up with is: I think so. I might need some help with this one, ezbills and others. If Jacksonville makes the playoffs by beating both NE and KC to finish 10-6, and then the following happened: - Miami beats Jets to knock out Jets - Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh - Denver loses to Cincy and beats SF That leaves Buff, Cincy, and Denver all at 9-7/7-5. Cincy would have head-to-head against Denver but that isn't applicable since the Bills didn't play either team. Conference record is even for all at 7-5. Now here's the key. The next tiebreaker is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." Does this mean common games between all three teams? If that is the case, then this tiebreaker is not applicable because there hasn't been four common games between all three clubs. However, if they apply this tiebreaker by matching the teams head-to-head in twosomes, then Denver would defeat Cincy in this tiebreaker and Denver would defeat Buffalo in this tiebreaker. Therefore, Denver would get the wildcard. However, I think "common games" must apply to all three teams in this scenario (similar to how Cincy's win over Denver isn't applicable unless they beat Buffalo also). Therefore, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, where Buffalo owns Denver even worse than Cincy. So, I think under this scenario where Jacksonville makes the playoffs and KC isn't around to knockout Denver, we can win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver. 871166[/snapback] Not to rain on the parade, but I don't think we can. In that scenario, DEN, CIN, and BUF would have 5 total games against 4 common opponents: NE, BAL, IND, and SD. Denver finished 2-3 against those teams, Cincy is 1-3 plus tonight's game vs. IND, and Buffalo is 0-4 with the Ravens game still to go. The only way for the Bills to beat Denver if the Broncos finish 9-7 is for the Chiefs to also finish at 9-7. That's partly why my preferred playoff scenario at the moment has Denver getting a spot after they beat the Bengals, and we wouldn't have to worry about the Chiefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Ahhh. Good call. I forgot to count the Baltimore game as common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Okay, so we can't win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver. And we can't win a 2-team tiebreaker with Denver. So that makes it very important that KC finishes 9-7 just in case Denver finishes 9-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Okay, so we can't win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver. And we can't win a 2-team tiebreaker with Denver. So that makes it very important that KC finishes 9-7 just in case Denver finishes 9-7. 871248[/snapback] Exactly. That's another reason why the Pats/Jags game is pretty important. A Jags loss in Week 16 would give the Jags a 2-game losing streak and slim playoff chances when they head to KC, while a Jags win in Week 16 would give them confidence and a much better chance of making the playoffs heading into the final game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prognastic Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Crack kills folks. After the last couple of years, an 8-8 or 9-7 year should be fine along with a solid draft and free agent period. The big decision is going to be; Is J.P Losman "the guy" or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBilliever Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Buf defeats Tenn & Balt 870942[/snapback] The most important factor in the equation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnykterstein Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Hey..question. The steelers are also 7-7. What happens if they win out and tie us at 9-7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasBB Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Hey..question. The steelers are also 7-7. What happens if they win out and tie us at 9-7? 871367[/snapback] Buf defeats Pit in tie-breaker -- conf win percentage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Hey..question. The steelers are also 7-7. What happens if they win out and tie us at 9-7? 871367[/snapback] That's no problem because the Steelers will lose the tiebreaker with the Bengals within their own division. Also, the Steelers will have a worse AFC record (6-6) than the Bills (7-5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnykterstein Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 That's no problem because the Steelers will lose the tiebreaker with the Bengals within their own division. Also, the Steelers will have a worse AFC record (6-6) than the Bills (7-5). 871384[/snapback] So we are rooting for them, since they play against Cinci the last week of the season. If cinci can lose tonight, and Pitt beats them in week 17, hoping to get to the playoffs... that would really help our playoff hopes. Teams we are rooting for... New England Miami Steelers Indianapolis 49ers Kansas City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnykterstein Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 oh and of course... The Bills!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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