Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 Updated to reflect how Bills can control own destiny heading into Week 17 Updated to reflect what outcomes can reduce the importance of the Jets-Miami game Up front disclaimer: YES I know the Bills need to beat the Titans or none of this matters. Now shaddup! Having said that, in case you were wondering what other games impact the Bills playoff chances, well here's a list. The discussion threads for this list are here and here and here and here. For the "importance" rankings, anything ranked 5 or higher would be a devastating blow to lose. The only 10 or absolute must-win is Bills beating Titans. Dolphins beating Jets is a 9, though. Everything below a 5 is a nice-to-have but not necessary. HOME team in CAPS Sunday 1:00 BILLS beat Titans (Importance = 10) a) Duh! b) this is 1st of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17 Sunday 1:00 Patriots beat JAGUARS (Importance = 4) a) Bills chasing Jaguars for a wild-card spot b) this is 2nd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17 c) Jaguars loss here reduces the importance of the Jets-Miami game ***OR*** JAGUARS beat Patriots (Importance = 2) a) this is 1st of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. It is also the least important of the 4 outcomes because it only affects whether the Ravens must beat the Bills to secure a #3 seed instead of a #4 seed, which they might consider to be an unimportant distinction. If the other three purple outcomes occur, Ravens have no chance to play for a bye or home field in Week 17. Whether you root for NE or Jax may depend on your confidence in KC beating Jax at Arrowhead Week 17 and your confidence in Bills beating what could be a motivated Ravens team playing for a #3 seed. Keep in mind we might need KC to beat Jax to eliminate Denver anyway so having NE also beat Jax is perhaps extraneous. Sunday 1:00 Colts beat TEXANS (Importance = 3) a) this is 2nd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Note that if Texans upset the Colts, it would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams the Bills have beaten such as Houston to win, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 1:00 STEELERS beat Ravens (Importance = 3) a) this is 3rd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Sunday 1:00 Buccaneers beat BROWNS (Importance = 1) a) would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams Cincy has beaten such as the Browns to lose, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 1:00 GIANTS beat Saints (Importance = 1) a) would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams Cincy has beaten such as the Saints to lose, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 1:00 FALCONS beat Panthers (Importance = 1) a) would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams Cincy has beaten such as the Panthers to lose, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 4:00 49ERS beat Cardinals (Importance = 2) a) want 49ers to stay in NFC division and wild-card chase so they are motivated to beat Denver Week 17 (unlikely anyway, I know) Sunday 4:00 Bengals beat BRONCOS (Importance = 4) a) Broncos loss here DRAMATICALLY reduces the importance of the Jets-Miami game and DRAMATICALLY increases the importance of Bengals-Steelers in Week 17 (which we would need Pittsburgh to win). I'm leaning towards rooting for the Bengals to beat the Broncos because a Denver win followed by a Jets win virtually knocks us out of the playoffs unless the 49ers can beat the Broncos in Mile High Week 17. I just do not trust SF there and I do not trust Miami to beat the Jets. ***OR*** BRONCOS beat Bengals (Importance = 2) a) this is 3rd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17. Sunday 4:00 Chargers beat SEAHAWKS (Importance = 3) a) this is 4th of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. b) keeps 49ers in the division race in case we need them to beat Denver Week 17 (unlikely anyway, I know) Monday DOLPHINS beat Jets (Importance = 9) a) Bills chasing Jets in wild-card race. Need Jets to lose this one so Bills can win tiebreaker with them. Bills can not pass Jets if they win here. A Jets loss opens up WAY more options to make playoffs. b) this is 4th of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17
tennesseeboy Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 Sounds like that Jets Dolphins game might be a 9 or just about a 10. Too bad its on a Monday! stressful weekend ahead. I'm not all that concerned about the Ravens game meaning "nothing" to the Ravens. We beat Tennessee and that game will mean "everything" for us. A playoff berth against a home team advantage is far more motivational. It would be nice for it to mean nothing against the Ravens, but I think we take them no matter what!
dogbyte Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 There is 2 things to watch. Indy at Cinncy. If Cinncy wins then they are in. If Jets win we are out. Thats it in a nutshell.
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Author Posted December 18, 2006 There is 2 things to watch. Indy at Cinncy. If Cinncy wins then they are in.If Jets win we are out. Thats it in a nutshell. 870622[/snapback] Nope. It's more than that. You simplify it for yourself if it makes you happy.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 There is 2 things to watch. Indy at Cinncy. If Cinncy wins then they are in.If Jets win we are out. Thats it in a nutshell. 870622[/snapback] Wow... You summed it up in under 30 words! And the first game is tonight! Indy really needs to win... I would say the importance of that should be a 9 or even a 10! Without that game (Indy v. Cincy) the odds really don't look that good.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 Nope. It's more than that. You simplify it for yourself if it makes you happy. 870628[/snapback] I agree Oz it is more than that... Yet, you can't have Cincy "hogging" a playoff spot this "early" in the game (week 14)... If they are to make it, Cincy's spot has to be dragged out later. Heck... If they (Cincy) make it today... A fluke kick by Nugent in the NYJ v. Dolphins game is all that is needed for the Bills to be eliminated... I don't want to pin my hopes on that one game! This is a puzzle... The Bills need to keep going down the road with as many possibilites as possible to have a "fighting chance." Even if they win out... It is like opening a series of doors to get more doors... We really need tonight's door to open!!! Tonights game is like being at the "Head of Passes"... The "wrong" route can easily leave you stuck and run aground!
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Author Posted December 18, 2006 No, I hear you man, Cincy losing tonight is important. In fact, I'll up the ranking from 7 to 8, and the Jets losing from 8 to 9. But we can't pretend that the Chiefs don't matter to us because they do. We hold no tiebreaker advantage over Denver unless the Chiefs finish 9-7. And that would severely limit our options.
marauderswr80 Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 The Pats Jags game means more then you think.......Pats still dont have the division wrapped up. So they really do need to win this game against the Jags....... regardless we need the Pats to win......cause we do have the tie breaker over the Jags!
Kgun5 Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 The Pats Jags game means more then you think.......Pats still dont have the division wrapped up. So they really do need to win this game against the Jags....... regardless we need the Pats to win......cause we do have the tie breaker over the Jags! 870712[/snapback] We do (have the TB over the Jags), but probably not for the reason that's been mentioned the most here. H2H only comes into play if there was a sweep of one team by all other teams in the tie, or an "oh-for" by a team against them all. So the H2H would only come into play if JAX and BUF end up tied after all other teams have been eliminated. JAX will have a weaker conf record than the Bills should they lose 1 of their last 2. I like the argument made above concerning why we may want JAX to BEAT the Pats. It comes down to which you think is more likely: The Bills beat a BMore team with nothing to play for and KC beats JAX at home, or The Bills beat a Ravens team that HAS something to play for. To me, that's a tough call.
ezbills Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 I agree Oz it is more than that... Yet, you can't have Cincy "hogging" a playoff spot this "early" in the game (week 14)... If they are to make it, Cincy's spot has to be dragged out later. Heck... If they (Cincy) make it today... A fluke kick by Nugent in the NYJ v. Dolphins game is all that is needed for the Bills to be eliminated... I don't want to pin my hopes on that one game! This is a puzzle... The Bills need to keep going down the road with as many possibilites as possible to have a "fighting chance." Even if they win out... It is like opening a series of doors to get more doors... We really need tonight's door to open!!! Tonights game is like being at the "Head of Passes"... The "wrong" route can easily leave you stuck and run aground! 870647[/snapback] Tonight's Bengals game is incredibly important, 2nd in importance only to next week's Jets game (not including the Bills' own games). While a Bengals win tonight would not lock up a playoff spot for Cincy, it would ensure that the Bengals will finish ahead of Buffalo no matter what else happens. That leaves just 1 wildcard spot in play for 4 teams (DEN, NYJ, JAX, and BUF), and the Jets could then eliminate Buffalo by beating Miami. On the other hand, a Bengals loss likely gives the Bills the tiebreaker over Cincy and leaves both wildcard spots still in play for the Bills. It would also ensure that the loser of the Bengals-Broncos game will finish with at least 7 losses. Also, a Jets win over Miami would not eliminate the Bills in this scenario.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 Tonight's Bengals game is incredibly important, 2nd in importance only to next week's Jets game (not including the Bills' own games). While a Bengals win tonight would not lock up a playoff spot for Cincy, it would ensure that the Bengals will finish ahead of Buffalo no matter what else happens. That leaves just 1 wildcard spot in play for 4 teams (DEN, NYJ, JAX, and BUF), and the Jets could then eliminate Buffalo by beating Miami. On the other hand, a Bengals loss likely gives the Bills the tiebreaker over Cincy and leaves both wildcard spots still in play for the Bills. It would also ensure that the loser of the Bengals-Broncos game will finish with at least 7 losses. Also, a Jets win over Miami would not eliminate the Bills in this scenario. 870733[/snapback] Exactly. Has anybody figured out some wild scenario if an 8-8 team can make it in?... Just in case the Bills lose one... Is there any possibilty? I know it would be an incredible long shot to back in 8-8... But, there has got to be ONE scenario out there? What about ties in actual games? Wouldn't it be wild if say that was the case and in some remotely wild chance that the Bills at 8-8 (if mathematically possible) could back in and then run the table to the Super Bowl... The whole nation would be screaming bloody murder... And then they win the Super Bowl against the Bears who finish 14-2... One can dream, can't he???
beausox Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 Up front disclaimer: YES I know the Bills need to beat the Titans or none of this matters. Now shaddup! Having said that, in case you were wondering what other games impact the Bills playoff chances, well here's a list. The discussion threads for this list are here and here. For the "importance" rankings, anything ranked 5 or higher would be a devastating blow to lose. The only 10 or absolute must-win is Bills beating Titans. Dolphins beating Jets is a 9, though. Everything below a 5 is a nice-to-have but not necessary. HOME team in CAPS Monday COLTS beat Bengals (Importance = 8): a) Bills chasing Bengals for a wild-card spot. Really need this game for chance to win tiebreaker with Bengals. Bengals loss opens up more options to make the playoffs. b) this is 1st of 5 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Saturday Chiefs beat RAIDERS (Importance = 5) a) need Chiefs to win out because that will eliminate Broncos during multiple-team tiebreakers, sending Bills to the playoffs. Bills lose tiebreaker to Broncos otherwise. Sunday 1:00 BILLS beat Titans (Importance = 10) a) Duh! Sunday 1:00 Patriots beat JAGUARS (Importance = ???) a) Bills chasing Jaguars for a wild-card spot ***OR*** JAGUARS beat Patriots (Importance = ???) a) this is 2nd of 5 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Whether you root for NE or Jax depends on your confidence in KC beating Jax at Arrowhead Week 17 and your confidence in Bills beating a motivated Ravens team. Keep in mind we probably need KC to beat Jax to eliminate Denver anyway so having NE also beat Jax is probably extraneous. I personally will be rooting for the Jaguars here. Sunday 1:00 Colts beat TEXANS (Importance = 3) a) this is 3rd of 5 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Sunday 1:00 STEELERS beat Ravens (Importance = 3) a) this is 4th of 5 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Sunday 4:00 49ERS beat Cardinals (Importance = 1) a) want 49ers to stay in NFC division and wild-card chase so they are motivated to beat Denver Week 17 (unlikely anyway, I know) Sunday 4:00 Bengals beat BRONCOS (Importance = 9 or 1) a) importance of this game depends on Colts-Bengals outcome. If Bengals win that game, root hard for Bengals against Broncos because Bengals basically a lock for playoffs at that point. If Bengals lose to Colts, this game becomes essentially meaningless. Sunday 4:00 Chargers beat SEAHAWKS (Importance = 3) a) this is 5th of 5 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. b) keeps 49ers in the division race in case we need them to beat Denver Week 17 (unlikely anyway, I know) Monday DOLPHINS beat Jets (Importance = 9) a) Bills chasing Jets in wild-card race. Need Jets to lose this one so Bills can win tiebreaker with them. Bills can not pass Jets if they win here. A Jets loss opens up WAY more options to make playoffs. 870543[/snapback] Thank you you saved me hours of of work. Is Cinci win out , KC win out and Jets lose two going to do it?
Dan Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 I'm still not sure I understand this whole Denver/KC thing. In my simplistic mind we want them both to lose. If KC beats Oakland, they move over Denver? But, how does that also mean we jump over Denver? Maybe I'm just getting dilerium from all the math and possibilites. What am I missing? For now, I'm thinking old school... if we win and everyone else loses; then that's good.
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Author Posted December 18, 2006 Thank you you saved me hours of of work. Is Cinci win out , KC win out and Jets lose two going to do it? 870919[/snapback] That's the difficult way to do it. We would much rather have Cincy lose tonight. But yes, if Cincy wins out and KC wins out and the Jets lose to Miami (they MUST lose to Miami if Cincy wins tonight), we make it.
Kgun5 Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 I'm still not sure I understand this whole Denver/KC thing. In my simplistic mind we want them both to lose. If KC beats Oakland, they move over Denver? But, how does that also mean we jump over Denver? Maybe I'm just getting dilerium from all the math and possibilites. What am I missing? For now, I'm thinking old school... if we win and everyone else loses; then that's good. 870945[/snapback] The NFL breaks divisional ties first, (grabbing the top team from each division,) before they move to the wild card tiebreakers. We would beat KC, but not Denver. However, since divisional tiebreakers are different, if KC and Denver tie, KC wins (divisional record), and thus, so do we.
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Author Posted December 18, 2006 I'm still not sure I understand this whole Denver/KC thing. In my simplistic mind we want them both to lose. If KC beats Oakland, they move over Denver? But, how does that also mean we jump over Denver? Maybe I'm just getting dilerium from all the math and possibilites. What am I missing? For now, I'm thinking old school... if we win and everyone else loses; then that's good. 870945[/snapback] I didn't go into details because those are contained in the threads I linked. But basically, it has to do with tiebreaker order. When multiple teams are tied, the division tiebreaker is used first to eliminate teams. So KC would eliminate Denver and then KC would get compared to the Bills, in which the Bills win due to conference record. If KC is not there to eliminate Denver and Denver and the Bills go head-to-head at 9-7, Denver will get the wild card due to a better record vs common opponents. Trust me, KC is no threat to us.
Dan Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 I didn't go into details because those are contained in the threads I linked. But basically, it has to do with tiebreaker order. When multiple teams are tied, the division tiebreaker is used first to eliminate teams. So KC would eliminate Denver and then KC would get compared to the Bills, in which the Bills win due to conference record. If KC is not there to eliminate Denver and Denver and the Bills go head-to-head at 9-7, Denver will get the wild card due to a better record vs common opponents. Trust me, KC is no threat to us. 870960[/snapback] In Ozy I trust! Go KC!
Koufax Posted December 18, 2006 Posted December 18, 2006 Thanks for the report. Good stuff. What still remains very interesting is that we can make the playoffs in several different ways if we win out. One is Bengals #5, us #6. Two is Denver #5, us #6. I think it is still mathematically possible to have Jets #5, us #6 but much trickier. I think your most interesting observation is that the NE-JAX game isn't so crucial, and we don't really benefit much with a Jax loss. The only way a Jax loss there helps us is if they beat KC the next week AND Denver loses to both Cincinnati AND the 49ers. I think I'm still going to be rooting for New England since it gives us a back door with a KC loss, but the impact is pretty small. The other interesting thing is that after tonight's Colts win, there is very little before our Titans game is over that matters a great deal, so it will be easy to focus on that game without scoreboard watching, and then if the Bills win start to look at the other stuff (CIN-DEN and NYJ-MIA specifically). I can't wait. As I mentioned before my biggest one step at a time goal is beating the Titans and having the playoff hopes mathematically alive when we head into Baltimore, because every week that this "playoff scenarios" topic has continued it has become more likely and more meaningful and more exciting.
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