Definitive Playoff Thread

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

This board really does live and die with the Bills.

870347[/snapback]

 

I've been doing these scenario sheets for years and the only part that doesn't usually come true at the Bills winning out.

[Mikie2times]

Yeah, it sounds right.  I'm going on the assumption that INDY beats CINCY, but if that doesn't happen I think CINCY over DEN becomes a must.  Of my two scenarios, I like number one:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. Miami def. NYJ

3. Cin def. Den

4. KC def. Oak

5. KC def. Jax

 

I think CINCY is much better than DEN, and KC is great at home.  I almost want to add (COMPLETED) beside the KC-OAK game, because that is a lock.

 

If CINCY loses to INDY, I think they will be hard pressed to catch us on strength of victory.  Because a Miami win gives us an extra two wins (and they have to beat the JETS).  Plus, we rack up on the Baltimore game.

870335[/snapback]

Yes and Yes. If the Bengals beat the Colts but lose the next two we would both finish 9-7 and tie at 7-5 in the conference. They would then beat us under common opponent.

 

If Miami beats the Jets we should make the playoffs winning out. I would even say it's more plausible then 2004. If the Jets win I still think we have a shot at the KC/DEN tie playing out. But that makes tomorrows Monday night game huge. We should all be huge Colts fans. CIN is the wild card we will need if the Jets beat Miami. To me Jack's isn't even a concern until after a W next week. Then even if they find a way to beat NE, I doubt they win at Arrowhead.

 

It starts with us taking car of business but this miracle is within reach.

[Mikie2times]

there's another scenario which puts six teams in a tie at 9-7:

Cincinnati-loses to indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh

 

New York-Loses to Miami, beats Oakland

 

Jacksonville- Lose to New England, beat KC

 

Denver- lose to Cincinnati, beats SF

 

Buffalo- wins out

 

Pittsburgh- beats Baltimore, beats Cincinnati

870340[/snapback]

You are correct that would work. Probably the biggest long shot path of the group but you never know.

[Mikie2times]

This board really does live and die with the Bills.

870347[/snapback]

Dude this would be like a Christmas miracle. I mean, WHO ON EARTH? I’m happy as hell just to be here!

 

If this miracle does end up happening we will probably face Baltimore back to back weeks. The last time that happened for the Bills was the year of the comeback. We entered the final week with HF implications on the line facing a Houston team that needed a win to reach the playoffs. Ironically Buffalo might find the roles reversed when they play Baltimore week 17.

[Dwight Drane]

I've been doing these scenario sheets for years and the only part that doesn't usually come true at the Bills winning out.

870349[/snapback]

 

You are right JP. Check out the other thread where I convert pointspreads into % chance of winning, and I get there is almost a 70% chance things will go our way with all the other teams, but only a 20% chance we win our 2 games....leaving around 15% chance the Bills make it in.

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

Dude this would be like a Christmas miracle. I mean, WHO ON EARTH? I’m happy as hell just to be here!

 

If this miracle does end up happening we will probably face Baltimore back to back weeks. The last time that happened for the Bills was the year of the comeback. We entered the final week with HF implications on the line facing a Houston team that needed a win to reach the playoffs. Ironically Buffalo might find the roles reversed when they play Baltimore week 17.

870354[/snapback]

 

Here's another one. The more outs for us the better:

 

NYJ def. MIAMI

 

If this happens, the easiest route in is:

 

CINCY - loses to Indy, beats Den, loses to Pit

KC - beats Oak and Jax

 

Denver would either lose to SF and be eliminated or beat them and be eliminated by KC.

[Mikie2times]

Here's another one.  The more outs for us the better:

 

NYJ def. MIAMI

 

If this happens, the easiest route in is:

 

CINCY - loses to Indy, beats Den, loses to Pit

KC - beats Oak and Jax

 

Denver would either lose to SF and be eliminated or beat them and be eliminated by KC.

870356[/snapback]

That’s why the Monday night game is so important. Let's face it the Jets game is a toss up. Miami just basically got eliminated so who knows if they show up. Let's pray they do, but if not with a CIN loss to the Colts we may still get in. You would then have CIN in must win mode against DEN the following week. KC should beat OAK. NE should beat Jack's. It would probably come down to the Bengals final game against Pittsburgh. In that one you have to love the Steelers chances at salvaging the season, and in turn ruining a bitter division opponents like the Bengals.

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

That’s why the Monday night game is so important. Let's face it the Jets game is a toss up. Miami just basically got eliminated so who knows if they show up. Let's pray they do, but if not with a CIN loss to the Colts we may still get in. You would then have CIN in must win mode against DEN the following week. KC should beat OAK. NE should beat Jack's. It would probably come down to the Bengals final game against Pittsburgh. In that one you have to love the Steelers chances at salvaging the season, and in turn ruining a bitter division opponents like the Bengals.

870358[/snapback]

 

Plus, if you are looking at it from PIT perspective. They would fully expect a win to get them in, because their fans assume we'll lose against Baltimore.

[Mikie2times]

Plus, if you are looking at it from PIT perspective.  They would fully expect a win to get them in, because their fans assume we'll lose against Baltimore.

870359[/snapback]

Keep talking dirty to me. I like it.

[Ozymandius]

Repost for Update:

 

Updated -- The Definitive "Way for the Week 17 Game to be Meaningless for the Ravens"

 

In an attempt to answer my own question about how to make that game meaningless, I am first listing the records, conference records, and remaining schedule for the teams Baltimore is competing with for seeding. This is a long post, but to make a long story short, there is a way for Baltimore to be LOCKED IN to the #3 seed without any chance of improvement or slippage going into the Week 17 game against us. Therefore, they would be able to rest their starters. In order for this to happen, five games have to go our way, which I list at the bottom. However, all 5 teams are favored by Vegas to win.

 

SD: 12-2, 10-2 AFC, @Sea/Ari

Ind: 10-3, 7-2 AFC, Cin/@Hou/Mia

Bal: 11-3, 8-2 AFC, @Pit/Buf

NE: 10-4, 6-4 AFC, @Jax/@Ten

 

First, comparing SD to Baltimore....If next week SD beats Seattle and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (both are Vegas favorites), then the #1 seed is no longer in play for Baltimore because SD would be 13-2 and Baltimore would be 11-4 with one game remaining.

 

Next, comparing NE to Baltimore...If next week Jax beats NE and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (again, both are Vegas favorites), then it is impossible for NE to catch Baltimore in seeding because NE's conference record would be 6-5 and Baltimore's would be 8-3 with one game remaining. (Note: we learned from the previous posts above that we need KC to beat Jax much more than we need NE to beat Jax. We can actually root for Jax to win next week as long as KC beats Jax the following week in Arrowhead)

 

Finally, comparing Indy to Baltimore...this is the most complicated because it involves the third tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents. If Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and beats Houston next week (Colts favorites in both), the Colts will be 12-3/9-2. If next week Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, the Ravens would be 11-4/8-3, leaving the possibility that both Indy and Balt could still finish 12-4/9-3. The key is the NEXT tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents, which Indy has the advantage in, if both teams should finish 12-4/9-3. If Indy beat the Bengals, the Colts would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Ravens would be 2-2 with the Bills game pending. Obviously 3-2 would not beat 4-1, so the Ravens would have no reason to beat the Bills if they lose to Pittsburgh next week and Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and Houston next week.

 

To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16:

(1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then

(2) Indy to beat Houston

(3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore

(4) SD to beat Seattle

(5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead)

 

Five games is tough, but all those teams are Vegas favorites.

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

Good work there Ozymandius, but I can't even begin to think about that Baltimore game yet.

 

I hope the Bills aren't either otherwise, it'll be Vince Young magic on Sunday.

[Ozymandius]

Good work there Ozymandius, but I can't even begin to think about that Baltimore game yet.

 

I hope the Bills aren't either otherwise, it'll be Vince Young magic on Sunday.

870367[/snapback]

I hear ya bro. I just wanted people to realize there is a way for that Baltimore game to be meaningless for the Ravens.

[ExiledInIllinois]

Thanks guys!

 

You all would make Bill BellyAche proud... I hear there is room on his "brain" staff...

 

Anyway... Thanks again... Way cool!

[BB2004]

I think we all understand that we are grateful to be in this situation. After the bye week some of us were trying to figure out what pick we would get in next years draft. The situation has completely changed. Before we start focusing on the Titans, lets focus on tomorrow's big Monday night matchup of Cincinatti against Indianapolis. If Peyton Manning can have a big game and the defense can create a few turnovers I don't see why Indianapolis would lose.

[BillsFanNC]

Hey could you guys figure out the scenario that gives us the highest possible draft pick? I'd like to know what teams behind us in the standings need to win combined with us losing out to make it easier for me to be negative about this team again next year.

 

signed,

 

DeLuca