Definitive Playoff Thread

[Mikie2times]

(Thread Edited)

 

I did the math, figured out all the tiebreakers, checked it twice and here is the results. We need to pass all but 1 of these teams to qualify.

 

NYJ- If the Jet's win against MIA we can't pass them under any circumstances. They would win tiebreaker #2 Division record. If they lose against Miami and we win out the Jet's can't pass us. We would tie them under tiebreaker #2 and also #3 (common opponents). We would then win tiebreaker #4 courtesy of having a better conference record. The final game they play against the OAK is essentially meaningless to our playoff hopes.

 

DEN/KC-We pass KC as long as they finish no better then 9-7. This would be courtesy of our Conference record. Denver on the other hand is a little bit tricky. If Denver and KC finish with the same record KC would pass DEN, and we would in turn pass KC. That to me is the most likely scenario of us passing Denver.

 

If KC doesn't tie Denver at 9-7 we can only pass Denver if they lose the last two remaining games. The reason being if Denver beats Cincinnati they will have a better conference record then us. If they lose to Cincinnati and Beat the 49ers they will have a better common opponent record then us.

 

JACK- All JACK's has to do is lose 1 of the last two remaining games. If that happens we tie at 9-7 and we win the Head to head tiebreaker.

 

Cincinnati- If Cincinnati losses 2 of 3 with one loss being to the Colts we can still pass them. In that scenario we would tie them in the first 3 tiebreakers, and move onto tiebreaker 4. We currently hold strength of victory edge by 5 games over the Bengals. Buffalo's record is 62-64 and the Bengals are 57-69. If the Bengals beat the Colts but lose the final two we won't pass them due to them winning common opponent tiebreaker 3.

 

BIG GAMES before the final week

 

1. NYJ at Miami WIN - Jets win and we can't pass them

2. KC WIN at OAK- KC Must tie DEN at 9-7

3. CIN at IND WIN- Keeps our hopes of winning TB with CIN.

4. CIN WIN at DEN- Better Chance at catching DEN then CIN. GO BENGALS

5. JACKS at NE WIN

 

If the following teams marked WIN do that next week we will enter the final week needing either a KC win or DEN loss or possibly CIN loss + Bills winning out to reach the playoffs.

 

Sounds Good to Me.

[BuffOrange]

The games that will decide our fate our next week

 

1. NYJ at Miami WIN - Jets win and we can't pass them

2. KC WIN at OAK- KC Must tie DEN at 9-7

3. CIN WIN at DEN- Better Chance at catching DEN then CIN. GO BENGALS

4. JACKS at NE WIN

 

If the following teams marked WIN do that next week we will enter the final week needing either a KC win or DEN loss.

870280[/snapback]

 

Really? That seems like, totally possible. Cincy is the only dog.

 

Another paradox though is that a Colts win tomorrow night makes it less likely the Ravens' last game will be meaningless.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

Man I hate needing the fish to win...

[My Friends Call Me Tebucky]

Games that will decide our fate next weekend:

1. Ten @ Buf. Bills must win. If Bills lose, you wasted two hours of your life figuring that sh-- out. As anal as I sound, you probably should have mentioned that in your post.

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

Really?  That seems like, totally possible.  Cincy is the only dog.

870293[/snapback]

 

Correction to this scenario. Strength of Victory will be won by the Bills. Strength of victory is not worked out the way you calculated it. If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

 

The Bills will get this assuming they beat Tennessee and Baltimore.

 

We also need KC to beat JAX the last game.

 

I have created a five-step plan on the easiest way to get in. Here it is:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. MIAMI def. NYJ

3. CIN def. DEN

4. KC def. OAK

5. KC def. JAX

 

This leaves CIN in 5th and BUF in 6th.

 

The other option is passing CIN. In that situation, we would need:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. INDY def CIN

3. MIAMI def. NYJ

4. DEN def. CIN

5. NE def. JAX

 

That puts DEN in 5th and BUF in 6th.

 

There you have it. And all this is assuming we win out.

[bartshan-83]

Games that will decide our fate next weekend:

1. Ten @ Buf. Bills must win. If Bills lose, you wasted two hours of your life figuring that sh-- out. As anal as I sound, you probably should have mentioned that in your post.

870306[/snapback]

 

Link

[Mikie2times]

Really?  That seems like, totally possible.  Cincy is the only dog.

 

Another paradox though is that a Colts win tomorrow night makes it less likely the Ravens' last game will be meaningless.

870293[/snapback]

That’s pretty much it. I'm looking at Cincinnati as pretty much a lock. If they beat the Colts they become a lock, at least for us. Regardless it would be very hard for us to pass the Bengal’s baring three straight losses. We will survive next week with realistic hope so long as the Jet's lose, and either KC win's or DEN losses. I would expect to make the playoffs in a win out scenario if all three happen.

[My Friends Call Me Tebucky]

Correction to this scenario.  Strength of Victory will be won by the Bills.  Strength of victory is not worked out the way you calculated it.  If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

 

The Bills will get this assuming they beat Tennessee and Baltimore.

 

We also need KC to beat JAX the last game.

 

I have created a five step program on the easiest way to get in.  Here it is:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. Miami def. NYJ

3. Cin def. Den

4. KC def. Oak

5. KC def. Jax

 

This leaves CIN in 5th and BUF in 6th.

 

The other option is passing CIN.  In that situation, we would need:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. INDY def CIN

3. Miami def. NYJ

4. DEN def. CIN

5. NE def. JAX

 

There you have it.  And all this is assuming we win out.

870307[/snapback]

 

 

Thank you for an intelligent simplification of the process. It's better that you do the brain-work than I.

 

Both scenarios seem plausible, scenario #1 even looks probable. I could find this out by looking at the standings, but scenario #1 assumes Indy beats Cincy, right?

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

That’s pretty much it. I'm looking at Cincinnati as pretty much a lock. If they beat the Colts they become a lock, at least for us. Regardless it would be very hard for us to pass the Bengal’s baring three straight losses. We will survive next week with realistic hope so long as the Jet's lose, and either KC win's or DEN losses. I would expect to make the playoffs in a win out scenario if all three happen.

870312[/snapback]

 

In my opinion, Cincy only has to lose the next two. The strength of victory keeps changing week-to-week and it's really close. However, we still get to play Baltimore and that will help us big time.

[Mikie2times]

Correction to this scenario.  Strength of Victory will be won by the Bills.  Strength of victory is not worked out the way you calculated it.  If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

 

The Bills will get this assuming they beat Tennessee and Baltimore.

 

We also need KC to beat JAX the last game.

 

I have created a five step program on the easiest way to get in.  Here it is:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. Miami def. NYJ

3. Cin def. Den

4. KC def. Oak

5. KC def. Jax

 

This leaves CIN in 5th and BUF in 6th.

 

The other option is passing CIN.  In that situation,o we would need:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. INDY def CIN

3. Miami def. NYJ

4. DEN def. CIN

5. NE def. JAX

 

There you have it.  And all this is assuming we win out.

870307[/snapback]

Well thanks for clearing that up. Looks like the critical game in all this is the Jets game. If that doesn't work out we will need the DEN/KC tie scenario to unfold, and pass Cincinnati (which still is possible).

[Ozymandius]

Thanks for the work, guys.

Now, here's a challenge. What will need to happen for the Week 17 game to be meaningless for the Ravens?

[PacificCoastBillsFan]

I am lost on the KC Oakland game. So why does KC have to beat oakland? As much as I hate the raiders and them being 2-12, shouldnt we want oakland to beat KC? Maybe I am missing something...

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

I am lost on the KC Oakland game.  So why does KC have to beat oakland?  As much as I hate the raiders and them being 2-12, shouldnt we want oakland to beat KC?  Maybe I am missing something...

870323[/snapback]

 

Ideally, KC has to finish 9-7. That way, in a big tie with us, DEN is eliminated against KC (assuming DEN is 9-7). Then, KC moves on to us and we beat them. Three-way ties or more are broken by division first.

 

KC has JAX at the end of the year (in Arrowhead). I consider that a lock for KC and even though they lost tonight, they will still be optimistic, because they have the tie-breaker over DEN.

[BuffOrange]

Thanks for the work, guys.

Now, here's a challenge.  What will need to happen for the Week 17 game to be meaningless for the Ravens?

870322[/snapback]

 

I dunno but we might book a hotel room down there for the week if we get in.

[Mikie2times]

Ideally, KC has to finish 9-7.  That way, in a big tie with us, DEN is eliminated against KC (assuming DEN is 9-7).  Then, KC moves on to us and we beat them.  Three-way ties or more are broken by division first.

 

KC has JAX at the end of the year (in Arrowhead).  I consider that a lock for KC and even though they lost tonight, they will still be optimistic, because they have the tie-breaker over DEN.

870325[/snapback]

Yup..By the way I edited my post, see if everything sounds good.

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

Yup..By the way I edited my post, see if everything sounds good.

870330[/snapback]

 

Yeah, it sounds right. I'm going on the assumption that INDY beats CINCY, but if that doesn't happen I think CINCY over DEN becomes a must. Of my two scenarios, I like number one:

 

1. SD def. KC (COMPLETED)

2. Miami def. NYJ

3. Cin def. Den

4. KC def. Oak

5. KC def. Jax

 

I think CINCY is much better than DEN, and KC is great at home. I almost want to add (COMPLETED) beside the KC-OAK game, because that is a lock.

 

If CINCY loses to INDY, I think they will be hard pressed to catch us on strength of victory. Because a Miami win gives us an extra two wins (and they have to beat the JETS). Plus, we rack up on the Baltimore game.

[Ozymandius]

Updated -- The Definitive "Way for the Week 17 Game to be Meaningless for the Ravens"

 

In an attempt to answer my own question about how to make that game meaningless, I am first listing the records, conference records, and remaining schedule for the teams Baltimore is competing with for seeding. This is a long post, but to make a long story short, there is a way for Baltimore to be LOCKED IN to the #3 seed without any chance of improvement or slippage going into the Week 17 game against us. Therefore, they would be able to rest their starters. In order for this to happen, five games have to go our way, which I list at the bottom. However, all 5 teams are favored by Vegas to win.

 

SD: 12-2, 10-2 AFC, @Sea/Ari

Ind: 10-3, 7-2 AFC, Cin/@Hou/Mia

Bal: 11-3, 8-2 AFC, @Pit/Buf

NE: 10-4, 6-4 AFC, @Jax/@Ten

 

First, comparing SD to Baltimore....If next week SD beats Seattle and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (both are Vegas favorites), then the #1 seed is no longer in play for Baltimore because SD would be 13-2 and Baltimore would be 11-4 with one game remaining.

 

Next, comparing NE to Baltimore...If next week Jax beats NE and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (again, both are Vegas favorites), then it is impossible for NE to catch Baltimore in seeding because NE's conference record would be 6-5 and Baltimore's would be 8-3 with one game remaining. (Note: we learned from the previous posts above that we need KC to beat Jax much more than we need NE to beat Jax. We can actually root for Jax to win next week as long as KC beats Jax the following week in Arrowhead)

 

Finally, comparing Indy to Baltimore...this is the most complicated because it involves the third tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents. If Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and beats Houston next week (Colts favorites in both), the Colts will be 12-3/9-2. If next week Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, the Ravens would be 11-4/8-3, leaving the possibility that both Indy and Balt could still finish 12-4/9-3. The key is the NEXT tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents, which Indy has the advantage in, if both teams should finish 12-4/9-3. If Indy beat the Bengals, the Colts would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Ravens would be 2-2 with the Bills game pending. Obviously 3-2 would not beat 4-1, so the Ravens would have no reason to beat the Bills if they lose to Pittsburgh next week and Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and Houston next week.

 

To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16:

(1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then

(2) Indy to beat Houston

(3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore

(4) SD to beat Seattle

(5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead)

 

Five games is tough, but all those teams are Vegas favorites.

[The Big Cat]

there's another scenario which puts six teams in a tie at 9-7:

 

 

Cincinnati-loses to indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh

 

New York-Loses to Miami, beats Oakland

 

Jacksonville- Lose to New England, beat KC

 

Denver- lose to Cincinnati, beats SF

 

Buffalo- wins out

 

Pittsburgh- beats Baltimore, beats Cincinnati

[Jonathan Paul Losman]

there's another scenario which puts six teams in a tie at 9-7:

Cincinnati-loses to indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh

 

New York-Loses to Miami, beats Oakland

 

Jacksonville- Lose to New England, beat KC

 

Denver- lose to Cincinnati, beats SF

 

Buffalo- wins out

 

Pittsburgh- beats Baltimore, beats Cincinnati

870340[/snapback]

 

This one is crazy. I think we actually get it. DEN would make 5th and we'd likely beat CINCY for 6th on strength of victory.

[Tux of Borg]

This board really does live and die with the Bills.