tornado681 Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Did anyone see the recent article in ESPN the magazine? It was on coachs decisions' on 4th down. In summary, some professor in economics publised a paper in a peer-reviewed journal in which he applied decision making theory to decisions a coach will make. The goal of the coach, in terms of the paper, is to make every decision which will enable your team to score the most points. Or, for us people with some statistical knowledge, maximize your expected value, i.e. maximize the points scored and minimize the points given up. Im not sure of the ins and outs, but based on the article, a coach's decision deviates the most from the "best" decision (the decision which will maximize the points scored) when the team is in the red zone. Far too often a coach will bend over and kick the FG. This paper argues that more often, the coach should go for it. It takes into account yards to go, what yardline they are on, etc. For example, suppose BUF is on the 2 yard line and 4th and goal. Assuming that a FG is made everytime, the expected points from the FG is 3. If the team will score more than 3/7th's of the time, then they should go for it. 7*(3/7)=3. Also, even if they go for it and dont get the TD, they leave the team with a long-@ss field. They analyzed all of the coaches decisions in the NFL and found that two of the top 3 or 4 coaches were Belichik (spelling) and Parcells. That is, their modeled decisions in the paper agreed with those coaches' decisions the best. All in all it was a really interesting read. Check it out. Maybe skelator aka Jauron will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Did anyone see the recent article in ESPN the magazine? It was on coachs decisions' on 4th down. In summary, some professor in economics publised a paper in a peer-reviewed journal in which he applied decision making theory to decisions a coach will make. The goal of the coach, in terms of the paper, is to make every decision which will enable your team to score the most points. Or, for us people with some statistical knowledge, maximize your expected value, i.e. maximize the points scored and minimize the points given up. Im not sure of the ins and outs, but based on the article, a coach's decision deviates the most from the "best" decision (the decision which will maximize the points scored) when the team is in the red zone. Far too often a coach will bend over and kick the FG. This paper argues that more often, the coach should go for it. It takes into account yards to go, what yardline they are on, etc. For example, suppose BUF is on the 2 yard line and 4th and goal. Assuming that a FG is made everytime, the expected points from the FG is 3. If the team will score more than 3/7th's of the time, then they should go for it. 7*(3/7)=3. Also, even if they go for it and dont get the TD, they leave the team with a long-@ss field. They analyzed all of the coaches decisions in the NFL and found that two of the top 3 or 4 coaches were Belichik (spelling) and Parcells. That is, their modeled decisions in the paper agreed with those coaches' decisions the best. All in all it was a really interesting read. Check it out. Maybe skelator aka Jauron will too. 863734[/snapback] That is actually pretty interesting, but how did they account for "immesurables" such as morale, (not making the TD/1st Down), for both teams, scorer and scoree? A missed opportunity can be devestating to a team and a big boost to the defending team when they succeed in stopping the other team...Anyway, I will read that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkady Renko Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 I believe this research came out a few years ago originally. Bill Belichick liked it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado681 Posted December 12, 2006 Author Share Posted December 12, 2006 That is actually pretty interesting, but how did they account for "immesurables" such as morale, (not making the TD/1st Down), for both teams, scorer and scoree? A missed opportunity can be devestating to a team and a big boost to the defending team when they succeed in stopping the other team...Anyway, I will read that one... 863745[/snapback] Yeah doesnt account for momentum etc. but could be used for first suggestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 I believe this research came out a few years ago originally. Bill Belichick liked it... 863750[/snapback] I think it was more than a few years ago. As I've said before, some day the math research on 4th down will have the same affect sabrmetrics has had on baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Here's something to research...how is it that ESPN has such creative commercials for SportsCenter, but the Magazine has the worst commercials ever made? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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