Sportsguy's take on Losman

[Dan]

That may be true, but I still think it was a good move.  I hate to bring up Dallas because Romo is of course a big anomaly, but there are similarities in that you can't win a SB with Bledsoe/Plummer.

I doubt that a grizzled top-notch coach like Shannahan succumbed to outside pressure or whatever.

860805[/snapback]

Actually, I wouldn't call Romo an anomally at all. He's been with Dallas, on the bench, developing for several years. Traditionally speaking, that's what most coaches I think would want.

 

I didn't think Shannahan would pull Plummer either. But thene he did. I also agree that they may not win the Superbowl with Plummer, but I still say he gives them the best shot until Cutler develops. Another year on the bench and he'd probably start just like Romo has. But now, I see him looking like all rookie QBs look; and of course, it won't be long before everyone starts wondering out loud if he's a bust. When that happens it becomes a crap shoot.

[The Jokeman]

"J.P. Losman is just bad enough to kill you in the first half of a game, just good enough to give you chance to come back in the second half, and just bad enough to snatch defeat from victory the moment you drop your guard. Sound familiar? Let's just change his name to Jake "The Snake" Losman and get it over with."

860527[/snapback]

No shock there, as TSN's predraft guide compared JP to Plummer as well. Infact if you look at their career numbers their similar in both have completed 57% of their passes, both hae a TD to INT ratio close to 1 to 1, both average close to 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Of course Jake's shown to be a better rusher, is sacked less per game and has a better ball security in terms of fumbles. Time will tell if JP is going to be better then Jake.

[jarthur31]

Oh yeah, he sure seemed that way against the Texans and Jags 

 

I do however have a problem with how long it takes for him to get things going in the beginning of the game. But he certainly doesn't lose it for us in the end.

 

Comparing him to Plummer this soon is unfair.

860530[/snapback]

 

Plus, Denver has better offensive players and a great line so the comparison really is stupid.

[BuffOrange]

Plus, Denver has better offensive players and a great line so the comparison really is stupid.

860877[/snapback]

 

Bells/Smith/Lelie were their skill players last year? That's not good at all.

[PatPatPatSack]

I think it's just coincidence and won't last.

860588[/snapback]

 

 

It is just coincidence. After 4 more games new coincidences will appear and "experts" will have it all figured out then too.

 

Let's face it. Like him or not, the sample size is WAY too small to start making statements like, "oh he stinks in beginning's of games but he is ok in the 8:00-13:00 minute period of the 3rd quarter. It's the same guy isn't it? it's like 5 plays later.

 

sheesh.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Sports Dick's always hated JP and now that he's looking better SG has to find something to vindicate his hatred.

 

He should get back to the two things he does best, which are stroking Tom Brady's jock and not being read by me.

[mrjsbu96]

How long has Plummer been in the league anyway? I'm not sure you can fairly make the comparison based on the amount of games each have played....

 

2 Additional Cents: Sean Salisbury - who I still don't understand how he, after the career he had, became an analyst - was saying on 1050ESPN radio segment yesterday that JP is one of his two 2 most improved players this year...

 

I don't know what it means, but just passing it along...

[DeLuca1967]

Oh yeah, he sure seemed that way against the Texans and Jags 

 

I do however have a problem with how long it takes for him to get things going in the beginning of the game. But he certainly doesn't lose it for us in the end.

 

Comparing him to Plummer this soon is unfair.

860530[/snapback]

 

2 games out of 12? I guess if you're a Loseman fan you have to forget about the other 10?

[Brandon]

No shock there, as TSN's predraft guide compared JP to Plummer as well. Infact if you look at their career numbers their similar in both have completed 57% of their passes, both hae a TD to INT ratio close to 1 to 1, both average close to 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Of course Jake's shown to be a better rusher, is sacked less per game and has a better ball security in terms of fumbles. Time will tell if JP is going to be better then Jake.

860846[/snapback]

 

That's not really a fair comparison. Losman is only in his third year, Plummer his 10th.

 

For those that think JP is bad, at the same stage of his career, Jake Plummer was absolutely awful. The numbers pretty much tell the story:

 

1st year: 53.0%, 7.4ypa, 15 TD, 15 INT

2nd year: 59.2%, 6.8ypa, 17 TD, 20 INT

3rd year: 52.8%, 5.5ypa, 9 TD, 24 INT

4th year: 56.8%, 6.2ypa, 13 TD, 21 INT

 

That's about as bad as it gets statistically. The worst was clearly his third season, when he nearly threw three times as many INTs as TDs. Losman hasn't even approached that level of futility.

[Pyrite Gal]

I'd say that his up-and-down performance obviously makes a valid comparison.  But that is where it ends.  Losman has yet to "snatch defeat from victory" this season as far as I can tell.  He hasn't gotten the job done at the end every time, but he has yet to drive down to the redzone and then make a crucial error.

 

In fact, if you look at his splits by quarter, it's apparent that he has fast starts, sh------- middles, and great endings.  If he can keep his chin up for the 2nd and 3rd quarter, he will become a very solid QB.

 

1st Q: 67.1%, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 95.7 Rating (this is inflated by his ridiculous 1st quarter at Houston)

2nd Q: 59.7%, 1 TDs, 3 INTs, 61.9 Rating

3rd Q: 60.8%, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 70.5 Rating

4th Q: 64.1%, 5 TDs, I INTs, 95.5 Rating

 

Overall, yes, his 1st half is worse than his 2nd.  But I'd say that what's more telling so far is that his 1st THREE quarters have been spotty and that he makes a mad rush at the end, but sometimes falls short.

 

So far I'd say he is 2 for 4 in terms of successfully beating a stretch of bad play with an all out surge late in the game.

860548[/snapback]

 

Exactly! I think this is a spot on set of stats which demonstrates that Sportsguy's observation while generally substantively correct are merely a superficial read on the situation which does not go to enough detail and depth to provide a more valid explanation of reality,

 

Whats even more interesting and shows one of the great limits of stats in termsw of trying to describe reality (basically it demonstrates how things may be accurate but still may not be true) is that what the individual stats do not give true justice in explaining is that this sport is a TEAM game and not an individual game.

 

JP can make great passes which a player drops and his stats may end up lousy though he did most things right. Conversely he may make a lousy pass but if Evans pulls off a circus catch or aa poorly thrown deflected ball bounces the right way he gets credit for a reception or even a TD when he threw a lousy pass or to the wrong receiver.

 

Stats are indicative but not conclusive. Stats can even be deceptive or flat out wrong with a superficial read or when a dumb conclusion is drawn from them.

 

What actually is interesting here is that this team game is at its best when it proves to be a TEAM game.

 

A good QB sometimes proves to be a GREAT QB when through force of his personal will (Kelly) and/or good judgment (Brady) or both (Montana) its not simply that his is a good individual player but he actually gets the players around him to perform better.

 

Montana had the great skill to inspire even seemingly average players to do great things and also the great judgment to throw questionable passes where only his guy could get them (the high TD to Clark in a playoff game for a winning TD) or the great judgment to throw the ball up for grabs to a great player who often won battles with DBs (many TDs to Rice). Its not that his passes were so great, its simply that they worked and his stats are best understood in demonstrating that not so much that he was a Marino like passer.

 

The place where the stats tend to really show little is when you look at true team or TEAM stats like wins where it actually is the performance of the D (and even ST) that is the factor among many which makes the difference. For example dis RJ fail as a finisher because the Bills lost to TN in a playoff game, The QB stats can be read to say yes, but do not really reflect the fact he drove the team to a FG which put them in the lead with a mere one play left and that they actually lost that game because the Bills salary cap ravaged roster had youngsters on ST who did not stay in their lanes leading to the Homerun Throwup.

 

I like Bart's stats as they really show a deepe statistical analysis which shows the failing of Sportsguys superficial cut.

[Wraith]

That's not really a fair comparison.  Losman is only in his third year,  Plummer his 10th. 

 

For those that think JP is bad,  at the same stage of his career,  Jake Plummer was absolutely awful.  The numbers pretty much tell the story:

 

1st year:  53.0%,  7.4ypa,  15 TD, 15 INT

2nd year: 59.2%,  6.8ypa,  17 TD, 20 INT

3rd year: 52.8%,  5.5ypa,  9 TD,  24 INT

4th year: 56.8%,  6.2ypa,  13 TD, 21 INT

 

That's about as bad as it gets statistically.  The worst was clearly his third season,  when he nearly threw three times as many INTs as TDs.  Losman hasn't even approached that level of futility.

861024[/snapback]

 

Plummer's statistics were pretty bad his ENTIRE career in Arizona. He's had some pretty good years in Denver, at least statistically, but the stats from this year resemble his Arizona years much more than his Denver years.

[JinWPB]

The first quarter of the Houston game is not overly inflating his splits for the first quarter all year. He has been pretty consistenly rated in the mid-90s in the 1st and 4th quarter and in the 70s range in the 2nd and 3rd quarter all year. Starting and finishing strong and playing crappy in the middle does seem to be Losman's hallmark at the moment.

 

 

A lot of what we have seen this year:

1. A still young and developing QB , whose growth was stunted by injury and poor

coaching early on.

2. An offense hindered by an inept line that for the most part could not block for

the run or pass.

3. Poor starting field position as the games progressed due to the defense that

been less than inspiring.

4. Current coaching which seems intent on playing not to lose rather than winning.

5. A schedule that in hindsight could be the toughest in the league.

 

I can't wait for 2007. A ton under the cap and a GM that understands what a winning team needs. We are only 3 or 4 good players away on the current roster.

[Taro T]

The first quarter of the Houston game is not overly inflating his splits for the first quarter all year. He has been pretty consistenly rated in the mid-90s in the 1st and 4th quarter and in the 70s range in the 2nd and 3rd quarter all year. Starting and finishing strong and playing crappy in the middle does seem to be Losman's hallmark at the moment.

 

I can think of worse modes of operation to have, but I would be very interested in finding out why Losman is so much worse in the middle of games. I suspect it is because the passing game, either by design (from Fairchild) or just in practice (Losman), get's very conservative in the middle of games. I've seen the gunslinger-like play from Losman in the beginning of many games and at the end of many games, but the Minnesota game is the only one that stands out in my mind where Losman was consistently good for the entire game.

 

This is definitely an area of improvement for Losman.

860575[/snapback]

Losman is definitely playing better this season. Playing well at the beginning of games and at the end is a start. And to be honest, if at this stage in his development he's only going to be successful for part of the game, those are the parts that I want him to be successful in.

 

If the defense were stronger, with the special teams the Bills have, that would be enough to win a few more games. Heck, it was the formula they often used when Flutie was at the helm. Score early, have the D keep it close, and then turn it on in the 4th.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Why is JP Losman not getting it done?? Because he has the worst 3rd down passer rating in the NFL. You wonder why the Bills have the most 3 and outs in the NFL and are 31st in 3rd down conversion %.

 

JP Losman is not getting the job done.

[meazza]

"J.P. Losman is just bad enough to kill you in the first half of a game, just good enough to give you chance to come back in the second half, and just bad enough to snatch defeat from victory the moment you drop your guard. Sound familiar? Let's just change his name to Jake "The Snake" Losman and get it over with."

860527[/snapback]

 

 

This is Bill Simmons right?

[JinWPB]

Why is JP Losman not getting it done??  Because he has the worst 3rd down passer rating in the NFL.  You wonder why the Bills have the most 3 and outs in the NFL and are 31st in 3rd down conversion %.

 

JP Losman is not getting the job done.

861059[/snapback]

 

 

As I was saying .run, run, throw, run, run , throw. Gee no one could have quessed that.

[BADOLBILZ]

Why is JP Losman not getting it done??  Because he has the worst 3rd down passer rating in the NFL.  You wonder why the Bills have the most 3 and outs in the NFL and are 31st in 3rd down conversion %.

 

JP Losman is not getting the job done.

861059[/snapback]

 

You guys need to get over your stat fascination and actually watch the games and digest what you are seeing. The Bills do not have good receiving personnel to convert third downs.

 

What kind of players do teams rely on to convert third downs?(beside an effective short yardage back, which the Bills lack, of course)

 

Third Down Back: The Bills have none. McGahee and Thomas are very mechanical catching the football, and struggle catching the football while their feet are moving. McGahee also lacks initial quickness, which makes him all but useless out of the backfield on third down. And he makes bad decisions like he did last week that costs the team posessions as well. Some guys, like Thurman Thomas or Larry Centers, just have a knack for knowing when to get forward and down and move the chains and when to gamble for the big gain. McGahee does not. Shaud Williams has the quickness, agility and ability to catch the football out of the backfield, but he goes to the ground too easily for ANY kind of skill player at the NFL level.

 

Tight End: Tight ends are critical to third down offense. They have the size to just turn around, box out a defender and make those short conversion grabs with defenders all over them or get deep down the middle if the safeties are cheating up or to the sidelines. The Bills are AWFUL at tight end. They try to throw the ball to Robert Royal, and he shows the ability to get open and adjust to the ball. He just has sh*t for hands and he has killed several drives this year with critical drops, the same problem he had in Washington. He's not a reliable option, and after he showed that a couple times early in the season, we've seen less of him on third downs. Mercifully.

 

WR: The Bills top 4 (Evans,Price, Parrish and Reed) are all small receivers who are easy to knock off of their routes at the LOS, which makes short, quick conversion passes more difficult to complete. Parrish shows the most ability to convert third downs because of his elusiveness, but he's been hurt much of the year(again), and he's also a very small target and has dropped catchable third down passes(see Houston game). Reed is adept at getting open, but has suspect hands and at 5'10" he is no substitute for a good receiving TE, as evidenced last week on the phantom non-interference call which very well may have still been a completion to a 6'5" 260 pound TE who wouldn't be so easily knocked out of the play.

 

There are a lot of factors that go into not converting third downs, but from my vantage point at the 50 yard line, Losman has been making good decisions and good throws on third down for the most part.

[Dan]

You guys need to get over your stat fascination and actually watch the games and digest what you are seeing.  The Bills do not have good receiving personnel to convert third downs.

 

What kind of players do teams rely on to convert third downs?(beside an effective short yardage back, which the Bills lack, of course)

 

Third Down Back:  The Bills have none.  McGahee and Thomas are very mechanical catching the football, and struggle catching the football while their feet are moving.  McGahee also lacks initial quickness, which makes him all but useless out of the backfield on third down.  And he makes bad decisions like he did last week that costs the team posessions as well.  Some guys, like Thurman Thomas or Larry Centers, just have a knack for knowing when to get forward and down and move the chains and when to gamble for the big gain.  McGahee does not.  Shaud Williams has the quickness, agility and ability to catch the football out of the backfield, but he goes to the ground too easily for ANY kind of skill player at the NFL level.

 

Tight End: Tight ends are critical to third down offense.  They have the size to just turn around, box out a defender and make those short conversion grabs with defenders all over them or get deep down the middle if the safeties are cheating up or to the sidelines.  The Bills are AWFUL at tight end.  They try to throw the ball to Robert Royal, and he shows the ability to get open and adjust to the ball.  He just has sh*t for hands and he has killed several drives this year with critical drops, the same problem he had in Washington.  He's not a reliable option, and after he showed that a couple times early in the season, we've seen less of him on third downs.  Mercifully.

 

WR:  The Bills top 4 (Evans,Price, Parrish and Reed) are all small receivers who are easy to knock off of their routes at the LOS, which makes short, quick conversion passes more difficult to complete.  Parrish shows the most ability to convert third downs because of his elusiveness, but he's been hurt much of the year(again), and he's also a very small target and has dropped catchable third down passes(see Houston game).  Reed is adept at getting open, but has suspect hands and at 5'10" he is no substitute for a good receiving TE, as evidenced last week on the phantom non-interference call which very well may have still been a completion to a 6'5" 260 pound TE who wouldn't be so easily knocked out of the play.

 

There are a lot of factors that go into not converting third downs, but from my vantage point at the 50 yard line, Losman has been making good decisions and good throws on third down for the most part.

861101[/snapback]

 

 

Not to mention, its decidedly more difficult to convert 3rd downs when you're routinely in 3rd and long situations, i.e. known passing situations. Add to that a predictable formation that completely tips your hand that everyone knew you had to begin with. Throw in the personnel discrepancies detailed above and suddenly 3rd down conversions become more of a wish than a reality

[Lori]

Why is JP Losman not getting it done??  Because he has the worst 3rd down passer rating in the NFL.  You wonder why the Bills have the most 3 and outs in the NFL and are 31st in 3rd down conversion %.[/i]

 

JP Losman is not getting the job done.

861059[/snapback]

Right, because the miserable 64.7% conversion percentage on third-and-short RUSHING plays has nothing to do with that number...

[Captain Hindsight]

the one thing i love about jp is he does statrt fairly strong, then in the middle of the game he manages it well, and when we really need him to make a play he can (see texans and jags) he also (i think) would have tied the SD game had he gotten the ball back at the end. every week it seems like hes improving and he hasnt a a bad game (in terms of causeing a loss) all year (maybe you could argue bears but that was more overmatched in my eyes) plus he wants to get better, hes not out for the paycheck he wants to play football and be succesful. Jp should be here a while and that ok with me