ezbills Posted December 5, 2006 Posted December 5, 2006 Now that I've made you laugh, here's why it's not that crazy to be thinking playoffs unless and until the Bills lose one more regular season game. While there are currently 5 teams tied at 7-5 for the 2 wildcard spots, there is a good likelihood that the #2 wildcard team will finish with a 9-7 record. There is also a good chance that the Bills would win the tiebraker against most other teams that happen to finish 9-7 should the Bills go on a 4-game winning streak. The 7-5 teams most likely to miss out on the playoffs are JAX, KC and DEN. The Jags have a tough schedule left with games vs the Colts, Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and would also hold the tiebreaker in a multiple-team tie since the Bills would be 7-5 in the AFC and the Jags would be 6-6. The Chiefs just lost in OT to the lowly Browns and have back-to-back games against the 9-3 Ravens and the 10-2 Chargers who are fighting for a first round bye. They also have games against their archrival Oakland and the Jags. The Chiefs would lose to most teams (including Buffalo) in a tiebreaker because they would have a 5-7 AFC record. Denver is heading full speed in the wrong direction after starting out 7-2. The Broncos head to the 10-2 Chargers this week and also have the Cardinals, Bengals, and 49ers left on the schedule. The wheels may completely fall off after the Chargers take care of business in Week 14. While the Broncos would beat the Bills in a two-team tie at 9-7, the Bills would likely prevail should the Chiefs also finish at 9-7. The Chiefs would hold the tiebreaker against Denver within the AFC West division, and then the Bills would beat the Chiefs based on AFC record. The trick will be whether the Bills can pass either the Jets or the Bengals for the final wildcard spot. Whether the Bills will hold the tiebreaker over the Jets and Bengals depends on which 2 games those teams lose to finish at 9-7. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker vs the Jets if the Jets lose this week vs Buffalo and also lose at Miami in Week 16. In that scenario, the teams would share a 3-3 division record and a 8-6 record vs common opponents, but the Bills would have a better AFC record for the 4th tiebreaker. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and would have to lose to both Oakland and Minnesota for the Bills to finish ahead of them. The Bengals most likely losses would be at the Colts and either at the Broncos or vs Pittsburgh. Since the Bills and Bengals would likely have identical records vs AFC and common opponents, the tiebreaker would be based upon strength of victory (i.e. the combined records of all teams you defeated). Assuming that the Bengals lose to IND and DEN but defeat OAK and PIT, the Bills currently hold the slightest edge in that tiebreaker. The combined records for the 9 teams the Bills would beat is currently 51-57, while the record for the Bengals opponents is currently 50-57 (the Bengals beat CAR who plays tonight vs PHI). This tiebreaker would not likely be decided until after all Week 17 games are played. Well, at least things will be interesting as long as the Bills win their games. There's a very real possibility that the only 7-5 team to win this week will be the Bengals, leaving a 4-way tie at 7-6 for the final spot and the Bills just one game back at 6-7 and holding most of the tiebreakers. I'd love the Christmas Eve game vs the Titans (which I'll be attending) to have playoff implications for the Bills!
bartshan-83 Posted December 5, 2006 Posted December 5, 2006 Playoffs or not, there is not another 5-7 or 6-6 team I'd rather trade places with in terms of future hope. I can't remember a time that I felt that way about a Bills team with a losing record this late into the season. I don't love all of Jauron's moves and the team has a few major holes, but things seem to be on the upswing.
ezbills Posted December 5, 2006 Author Posted December 5, 2006 Playoffs or not, there is not another 5-7 or 6-6 team I'd rather trade places with in terms of future hope. I can't remember a time that I felt that way about a Bills team with a losing record this late into the season. I don't love all of Jauron's moves and the team has a few major holes, but things seem to be on the upswing. 857272[/snapback] I agree. After going into the bye week on a 3-game losing streak including 2 blowout losses, the Bills have responded with 3 victories and a pair of close losses to 10-2 teams. I think San Diego is the favorite to win it all this year and the Bills went toe-to-toe with them for most of the game. I know the offense has been hit or miss (mostly miss) and the defense gets run on like crazy, but the team has overcome that to find ways to keep the score close and pull out some wins. Now, if we could just get some pressure on Pennington this week...
drnykterstein Posted December 5, 2006 Posted December 5, 2006 Wow I'm dizzy. I can't believe you actually did all of that math. Insane. I still think you need to be 10-6 in this AFC to make the playoffs. But after reading your posts you have me convinced that 9-7 will do it, at least for the Bills. Oye ve that was quite a posting though.
ezbills Posted December 5, 2006 Author Posted December 5, 2006 Wow I'm dizzy. I can't believe you actually did all of that math. Insane. I still think you need to be 10-6 in this AFC to make the playoffs. But after reading your posts you have me convinced that 9-7 will do it, at least for the Bills. Oye ve that was quite a posting though. 857278[/snapback] Thanks man. I guess a love of stats combined with not seeing your team win a single playoff game for the past 11 years can make a guy crazy! To me, the most unlikely part by far is the Bills actually running the table. The thought that they have a decent shot at the playoffs if they do so should make the games more enjoyable to watch though.
TigerJ Posted December 5, 2006 Posted December 5, 2006 With seven losses, I'm not going to worry about the math of Buffalo making the playoffs until we get closer to the end of the season. When I start out watching the football season my working assumption is that it will take a 10-6 record to make a wild card slot.
Nostradamus Posted December 5, 2006 Posted December 5, 2006 Now that I've made you laugh, here's why it's not that crazy to be thinking playoffs unless and until the Bills lose one more regular season game. While there are currently 5 teams tied at 7-5 for the 2 wildcard spots, there is a good likelihood that the #2 wildcard team will finish with a 9-7 record. There is also a good chance that the Bills would win the tiebraker against most other teams that happen to finish 9-7 should the Bills go on a 4-game winning streak. The 7-5 teams most likely to miss out on the playoffs are JAX, KC and DEN. The Jags have a tough schedule left with games vs the Colts, Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and would also hold the tiebreaker in a multiple-team tie since the Bills would be 7-5 in the AFC and the Jags would be 6-6. The Chiefs just lost in OT to the lowly Browns and have back-to-back games against the 9-3 Ravens and the 10-2 Chargers who are fighting for a first round bye. They also have games against their archrival Oakland and the Jags. The Chiefs would lose to most teams (including Buffalo) in a tiebreaker because they would have a 5-7 AFC record. Denver is heading full speed in the wrong direction after starting out 7-2. The Broncos head to the 10-2 Chargers this week and also have the Cardinals, Bengals, and 49ers left on the schedule. The wheels may completely fall off after the Chargers take care of business in Week 14. While the Broncos would beat the Bills in a two-team tie at 9-7, the Bills would likely prevail should the Chiefs also finish at 9-7. The Chiefs would hold the tiebreaker against Denver within the AFC West division, and then the Bills would beat the Chiefs based on AFC record. The trick will be whether the Bills can pass either the Jets or the Bengals for the final wildcard spot. Whether the Bills will hold the tiebreaker over the Jets and Bengals depends on which 2 games those teams lose to finish at 9-7. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker vs the Jets if the Jets lose this week vs Buffalo and also lose at Miami in Week 16. In that scenario, the teams would share a 3-3 division record and a 8-6 record vs common opponents, but the Bills would have a better AFC record for the 4th tiebreaker. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and would have to lose to both Oakland and Minnesota for the Bills to finish ahead of them. The Bengals most likely losses would be at the Colts and either at the Broncos or vs Pittsburgh. Since the Bills and Bengals would likely have identical records vs AFC and common opponents, the tiebreaker would be based upon strength of victory (i.e. the combined records of all teams you defeated). Assuming that the Bengals lose to IND and DEN but defeat OAK and PIT, the Bills currently hold the slightest edge in that tiebreaker. The combined records for the 9 teams the Bills would beat is currently 51-57, while the record for the Bengals opponents is currently 50-57 (the Bengals beat CAR who plays tonight vs PHI). This tiebreaker would not likely be decided until after all Week 17 games are played. Well, at least things will be interesting as long as the Bills win their games. There's a very real possibility that the only 7-5 team to win this week will be the Bengals, leaving a 4-way tie at 7-6 for the final spot and the Bills just one game back at 6-7 and holding most of the tiebreakers. I'd love the Christmas Eve game vs the Titans (which I'll be attending) to have playoff implications for the Bills! 857262[/snapback] Great POST!!! Thanks a lot for figuring all this out and making another Diehard fan BIllieve for at least one more week!
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 Great POST!!! Thanks a lot for figuring all this out and making another Diehard fan BIllieve for at least one more week! 857827[/snapback] Good Lord.
Arkady Renko Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 In the past, far-fetched playoff runs by the Bills usually play out the following way: 1. All the teams that need to lose do. 2. The Bills choke and don't do the simplest thing and the thing most in their control: win the rest of their games.
Tasker Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 If we hit the last weekend at 8-7 and some of the other stuff has gone right, I'll worry about this. Right now our #1 goal has to be just winning against the Jets. I think (as I have from the start of the season) that playoffs aren't happening this year. That doesn't mean I don't expect to somehow win each game, and that I don't wish for the playoffs. But right now I want to be a 6 win team so we can start thinking about 7. The Ravens could very well have things locked up for the last week and rest people (flashbacks of the Steelers), which could make this week's game the hardest of the four, but I don't think we are consistent enough yet to win out. I like still being alive mathematically and playing teams tough and progressing. If we can keep these hopes alive for another week, that is even better for our team's future.
Jack D. Ripper Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 Now that I've made you laugh, here's why it's not that crazy to be thinking playoffs unless and until the Bills lose one more regular season game. While there are currently 5 teams tied at 7-5 for the 2 wildcard spots, there is a good likelihood that the #2 wildcard team will finish with a 9-7 record. There is also a good chance that the Bills would win the tiebraker against most other teams that happen to finish 9-7 should the Bills go on a 4-game winning streak. The 7-5 teams most likely to miss out on the playoffs are JAX, KC and DEN. The Jags have a tough schedule left with games vs the Colts, Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and would also hold the tiebreaker in a multiple-team tie since the Bills would be 7-5 in the AFC and the Jags would be 6-6. The Chiefs just lost in OT to the lowly Browns and have back-to-back games against the 9-3 Ravens and the 10-2 Chargers who are fighting for a first round bye. They also have games against their archrival Oakland and the Jags. The Chiefs would lose to most teams (including Buffalo) in a tiebreaker because they would have a 5-7 AFC record. Denver is heading full speed in the wrong direction after starting out 7-2. The Broncos head to the 10-2 Chargers this week and also have the Cardinals, Bengals, and 49ers left on the schedule. The wheels may completely fall off after the Chargers take care of business in Week 14. While the Broncos would beat the Bills in a two-team tie at 9-7, the Bills would likely prevail should the Chiefs also finish at 9-7. The Chiefs would hold the tiebreaker against Denver within the AFC West division, and then the Bills would beat the Chiefs based on AFC record. The trick will be whether the Bills can pass either the Jets or the Bengals for the final wildcard spot. Whether the Bills will hold the tiebreaker over the Jets and Bengals depends on which 2 games those teams lose to finish at 9-7. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker vs the Jets if the Jets lose this week vs Buffalo and also lose at Miami in Week 16. In that scenario, the teams would share a 3-3 division record and a 8-6 record vs common opponents, but the Bills would have a better AFC record for the 4th tiebreaker. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and would have to lose to both Oakland and Minnesota for the Bills to finish ahead of them. The Bengals most likely losses would be at the Colts and either at the Broncos or vs Pittsburgh. Since the Bills and Bengals would likely have identical records vs AFC and common opponents, the tiebreaker would be based upon strength of victory (i.e. the combined records of all teams you defeated). Assuming that the Bengals lose to IND and DEN but defeat OAK and PIT, the Bills currently hold the slightest edge in that tiebreaker. The combined records for the 9 teams the Bills would beat is currently 51-57, while the record for the Bengals opponents is currently 50-57 (the Bengals beat CAR who plays tonight vs PHI). This tiebreaker would not likely be decided until after all Week 17 games are played. Well, at least things will be interesting as long as the Bills win their games. There's a very real possibility that the only 7-5 team to win this week will be the Bengals, leaving a 4-way tie at 7-6 for the final spot and the Bills just one game back at 6-7 and holding most of the tiebreakers. I'd love the Christmas Eve game vs the Titans (which I'll be attending) to have playoff implications for the Bills! 857262[/snapback] Wow. That was a lot of mental energy to waste on a pipe dream. I'd love to see it bro, but this team is not ready for the playoffs.
pBills Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 First off... wow. I got up to early to do the math, thank god someone did it for me. Love the optimism, I'm still with the Bills - cheering them on no matter what. I am hoping that the win the next three going into the Ravens game... since I'll be there. No matter what, they have made huge progress this season. I am especially proud of JP. It's just to bad that MM could have done this last year with him. GO BILLS!!!
bills_fan Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 Thanks man. I guess a love of stats combined with not seeing your team win a single playoff game for the past 11 years can make a guy crazy! To me, the most unlikely part by far is the Bills actually running the table. The thought that they have a decent shot at the playoffs if they do so should make the games more enjoyable to watch though. 857309[/snapback] I give you all the credit in the world for that post. I thought this thread would be mindless, but that was a helluva post. Fug it, I can believe for one more week, at least!
Arkady Renko Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 In the past, far-fetched playoff runs by the Bills usually play out the following way: 1. All the teams that need to lose do. 2. The Bills choke and don't do the simplest thing and the thing most in their control: win the rest of their games. 858835[/snapback] My point here is that the biggest hurdle will be the Bills winning out. As Tasker says, one game at a time. Let's just worry about a win against the Jets first.
tennesseeboy Posted December 6, 2006 Posted December 6, 2006 If they should win out I'll be delighted...whether or not we make the playoffs. If we make the playoffs I'll be surprised...and ecstatic.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 7, 2006 Posted December 7, 2006 My point here is that the biggest hurdle will be the Bills winning out. As Tasker says, one game at a time. Let's just worry about a win against the Jets first. 858949[/snapback] !@#$ Steve Tasker. I don't want to see that up-and-coming Bills hater on the wall or in the hall.
East Brady Posted December 7, 2006 Posted December 7, 2006 !@#$ Steve Tasker. I don't want to see that up-and-coming Bills hater on the wall or in the hall. 859369[/snapback] Well joe, I must say, after queing up the Tivo yesterday and actually listening to the network guys (tasker), it really wasn't that bad, some of you guys just need to relax a little....IMO
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 7, 2006 Posted December 7, 2006 Well joe, I must say, after queing up the Tivo yesterday and actually listening to the network guys (tasker), it really wasn't that bad, some of you guys just need to relax a little....IMO 859427[/snapback] Oh come on, I was amazed he could talk...what, with LT's d*ck in his mouth.
East Brady Posted December 7, 2006 Posted December 7, 2006 Oh come on, I was amazed he could talk...what, with LT's d*ck in his mouth. 859431[/snapback] Gee, wish he was able to say half of that stuff about, THE MAN WILLIS, lets face it LT kicked our ass.......and willis sucks..............
Arkady Renko Posted December 7, 2006 Posted December 7, 2006 !@#$ Steve Tasker. I don't want to see that up-and-coming Bills hater on the wall or in the hall. 859369[/snapback] I was talking about the poster named "Tasker."
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