truth on hold Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Home Field usually adds 3 so that means in neutral territory Bills would be 9 point underdog. Clearly odds maker not giving much respect to Bills and a lot to San Diego even though they didn't do much against the Raiders. http://www.nypost.com/sports/betting/reg/postline.htm
JasoninMT Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 I'd have to say 6 points is fairly respectable... when you consider how poorly we do against the Run... LT is going to kill us next week if you ask me...
mead107 Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 what made you think that the odds would be less than 6 ? SD is the hot team .
Mikie2times Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Home Field usually adds 3 so that means in neutral territory Bills would be 9 point underdog. Clearly odds maker not giving much respect to Bills and a lot to San Diego even though they didn't do much against the Raiders. http://www.nypost.com/sports/betting/reg/postline.htm 850077[/snapback] If they respect us anymore they would get killed with one sided action. As it is I guarantee the Chargers will be one of the most heavily bet teams this week.
Tortured Soul Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Home Field usually adds 3 so that means in neutral territory Bills would be 9 point underdog. Clearly odds maker not giving much respect to Bills and a lot to San Diego even though they didn't do much against the Raiders. http://www.nypost.com/sports/betting/reg/postline.htm 850077[/snapback] They beay us by 38 last year. But I guess since that was in San Diego, it's only like 35.
bbfan54 Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Most people do not understand odds making. The odds are set at a point that the odds maker think will get equal money bet on both sides. The odds makers are guaranteed to make money if there is equal money on both sides. Therefore, the odds makers aren't trying to predict how much a team will win by but instead the spread that will take equal betting on both sides.
CJPearl2 Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 A 5.5 or 6 point underdog to a team with 4 more wins (SD 9-2 team with the Bills 5-6) is very respecful. On paper, SD will run all over us. Remember last year's game? I do, I was there, and it was ugly.
Tcali Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Home Field usually adds 3 so that means in neutral territory Bills would be 9 point underdog. Clearly odds maker not giving much respect to Bills and a lot to San Diego even though they didn't do much against the Raiders. http://www.nypost.com/sports/betting/reg/postline.htm 850077[/snapback] I think a 6 point margin is just about righty---maybe even a bit slim. If the chargers beat us by 6 points most of us will claim that they put in a good solid effort. Chargers may be among thge top 3 teams in the league right now.
Rico Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 I think a 6 point margin is just about righty---maybe even a bit slim. If the chargers beat us by 6 points most of us will claim that they put in a good solid effort. Chargers may be among thge top 3 teams in the league right now. 850094[/snapback] I think they're #2 behind the Ravens. Point spread looks about right to me.
Tcali Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Most people do not understand odds making. The odds are set at a point that the odds maker think will get equal money bet on both sides. The odds makers are guaranteed to make money if there is equal money on both sides. Therefore, the odds makers aren't trying to predict how much a team will win by but instead the spread that will take equal betting on both sides. 850089[/snapback] Yes true----but usually it is a line that ends up being pretty close overall to the real outcome.The two arent mutually exclusive. The exception is a place like Reno---where the raiders will get unrealistic odds because of the heavy homer betting on them.
Ozymandius Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 They beay us by 38 last year. But I guess since that was in San Diego, it's only like 35. 850087[/snapback] Haha.
Ozymandius Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Most people do not understand odds making. The odds are set at a point that the odds maker think will get equal money bet on both sides. The odds makers are guaranteed to make money if there is equal money on both sides. Therefore, the odds makers aren't trying to predict how much a team will win by but instead the spread that will take equal betting on both sides. 850089[/snapback] You really think the books are getting equal action on that line? I think the books are getting pounded with SD bets.
Ozymandius Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 BTW, the line already shifted. Started out at -5. It'll be -6.5 soon and possibly -7 by kickoff.
keepthefaith Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 You really think the books are getting equal action on that line? I think the books are getting pounded with SD bets. 850134[/snapback] Yeah, expcet the line to grow.
truth on hold Posted November 27, 2006 Author Posted November 27, 2006 what made you think that the odds would be less than 6 ? SD is the hot team . 850084[/snapback] they obviously didn't read this thread! http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=55868
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Most people do not understand odds making. The odds are set at a point that the odds maker think will get equal money bet on both sides. The odds makers are guaranteed to make money if there is equal money on both sides. Therefore, the odds makers aren't trying to predict how much a team will win by but instead the spread that will take equal betting on both sides. 850089[/snapback] I don't know about this kind of stuff. Can you explain that to me? How are they gauranteed to make money if there's even betting...wouldn't they be gauranteed to break even?
Astrobot Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Last year, "with touchdowns on five of their first seven first-half possessions, San Diego overwhelmed the visiting Buffalo Bills 48-10 after charging out to a 35-10 lead at the half. "
Mikie2times Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 I don't know about this kind of stuff. Can you explain that to me? How are they gauranteed to make money if there's even betting...wouldn't they be gauranteed to break even? 850147[/snapback] Juice, you pay between 3%-10% for a winning bet, or more. Edit: Say I take Buffalo -3 at -110 odds. I bet 100$, I would win 90$. The -110 after the line is the juice.
AJ1 Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 Last year, "with touchdowns on five of their first seven first-half possessions, San Diego overwhelmed the visiting Buffalo Bills 48-10 after charging out to a 35-10 lead at the half. " 850148[/snapback] Yeah, that was one of Mularkey's gems of coaching. It was the game I decided that he didn't have a clue as a HC.
AJ1 Posted November 27, 2006 Posted November 27, 2006 One thing about setting the odds; it's more a measure of public perception than reality. The last 3 games I believe the Bills beat the point spread by 7. 6 , and 6. It may have more than 7 for Indy, I don't remember. The point is that the public doesn't wise up to a team until they lose betting against them for 4 straight, in general. If the Bills win or come extremely close to winning, the under the radar days will be over.
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