Bet the Lions on Thursday

[Mikie2times]

I usually on bet on the NFL ... I have won here and there (such as $140 last week), but thats merely because I teased all of the games.

 

What is your thoughts on Sunday's games?

846753[/snapback]

I don't come to a final decision until Saturday night. This is what I'm looking at, and if the line shifts to the buy price then I'll bet it for sure.

 

Atlanta -3 buy at -2.5

I really like the overall motivation for Atlanta in this match up. It's a must win game for them, + Mora senior called out Vick early in the week. The first game they played in New Orleans was one of the most difficult regular season environments I've ever witnessed. Atlanta won't be able to stop New Orleans passing game, but the Saints won't stop Atlanta's running game. It's safer to move the ball by land.

 

 

New England -3 buy at -2.5

As Buff pointed out it sucks that New England’s favored. Anything less then three would be juicy. If the only reason I had for this was New England potentially losing three straight home games it would be enough. Past that I like BB's penchant for confusing QB's and Grossman’s penchant for getting confused. I also think NE can get the running game going. The only reservation I have in this is Brady's performance against the Colts cover 2 look.

 

Oakland 13.5 buys at 14

When every sign points to one team winning go the other way. Oakland’s on an ATS roll getting DD points against teams that don't care. The Chargers are off two marathon wins, Oakland on the other hand is playing better and was flat out embarrassed by SD at Home on Monday Night football in week 1. You remember giving up 9 sacks, and being shut out. Merriman did most the damage and he won't be playing. Oakland plays good defense, and the offense will be improved with Brooks over Walter.

 

Pittsburgh 3 buy at 3.5

The defending champs have one game left to get back in this season. They're 4 back of Baltimore with two games remaining against them. This is the definition of must win for them. They're getting healthier on defense, and like the way they move the ball so long as Ben R. doesn't turn it over. I expect Baltimore to crawl down the stretch just like they crawled into the bye. McNair just isn't built to go 16 anymore.

[Fan in San Diego]

On any given Sunday anybody can beat anybody. Lucky bounces one way or the other, human emotion gets sparked and set on fire.

Betting NFL football games is risky business. Only bet what you can truly afford to lose.

 

I noticed a few people mentioned Detroit, Tampa Bay as sure things. Ya right.

[DCM]

Look at how Miami is winning right now. Massive amounts of turnovers, including +4 at Chicago and two TD returns this week. Ronnie Brown is not healthy; Joey Harrington is not playing well. This 3 game winning streak is a fluke.  Now Miami heads into Detroit as 3 point favorites? Even better on wagerline the public is pounding Miami at almost a 70% clip. The Lions are good at home, and usually even better on Thanksgiving. You also have to figure they will know how to defense Harrington. If you’re going to jump on I would buy now while it's still +3.

843896[/snapback]

 

Look on the bright side.....after the first 8 minutes of the game, you looked like a genius!

[BuffOrange]

I don't come to a final decision until Saturday night. This is what I'm looking at, and if the line shifts to the buy price then I'll bet it for sure.

 

Atlanta -3 buy at -2.5

I really like the overall motivation for Atlanta in this match up. It's a must win game for them, + Mora senior called out Vick early in the week. The first game they played in New Orleans was one of the most difficult regular season environments I've ever witnessed. Atlanta won't be able to stop New Orleans passing game, but the Saints won't stop Atlanta's running game. It's safer to move the ball by land. 

New England -3 buy at -2.5

As Buff pointed out it sucks that New England’s favored. Anything less then three would be juicy. If the only reason I had for this was New England potentially losing three straight home games it would be enough. Past that I like BB's penchant for confusing QB's and Grossman’s penchant for getting confused. I also think NE can get the running game going. The only reservation I have in this is Brady's performance against the Colts cover 2 look.

 

Oakland 13.5 buys at 14

When every sign points to one team winning go the other way. Oakland’s on an ATS roll getting DD points against teams that don't care. The Chargers are off two marathon wins, Oakland on the other hand is playing better and was flat out embarrassed by SD at Home on Monday Night football in week 1.  You remember giving up 9 sacks, and being shut out.  Merriman did most the damage and he won't be playing. Oakland plays good defense, and the offense will be improved with Brooks over Walter. 

 

Pittsburgh 3 buy at 3.5

The defending champs have one game left to get back in this season. They're 4 back of Baltimore with two games remaining against them. This is the definition of must win for them. They're getting healthier on defense, and like the way they move the ball so long as Ben R. doesn't turn it over. I expect Baltimore to crawl down the stretch just like they crawled into the bye. McNair just isn't built to go 16 anymore.

846769[/snapback]

 

 

I don't think I really buy the "must-win" argument for Pittsburgh anymore - realistically their season ended when they lost to Denver if not to Oakland. Plus Ward might not play.

 

The Raiders defense is a lot better than people think, but the Chargers offense is still explosive enough that Oakland will still likely have to score more than 10 points to cover. Not sure they can do that. Schottenheimer for all the grief he takes - his teams are pretty good at dominating teams they should beat - and he hates the Raiders about as much as Shannahan (and is just as successful against them).

 

I like your reasoning on NO-ATL, although both of those teams are in the wildly unpredictable Bengals category of "teams I never wager on or against".

[Ramius]

Lets see...Blinker2 and KzooMike are now homeless...who's next?

[mead107]

both are collecting money on the street corner to place a bet on the jags .

[Swift Sylvan]

Maybe it's this board, when you announce that you placed a big bet on this forum it means you have to lose? Of course my sample size is 2, so I don't know how significant that is.

[Chilly]

Told you that Detroit sucks.

[KOKBILLS]

Lets see...Blinker2 and KzooMike are now homeless...who's next?

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[Mikie2times]

I don't think I really buy the "must-win" argument for Pittsburgh anymore - realistically their season ended when they lost to Denver if not to Oakland.  Plus Ward might not play.

 

The Raiders defense is a lot better than people think, but the Chargers offense is still explosive enough that Oakland will still likely have to score more than 10 points to cover.  Not sure they can do that.  Schottenheimer for all the grief he takes - his teams are pretty good at dominating teams they should beat - and he hates the Raiders about as much as Shannahan (and is just as successful against them).

 

I like your reasoning on NO-ATL, although both of those teams are in the wildly unpredictable Bengals category of "teams I never wager on or against".

846888[/snapback]

I'm only playing ATL tomorrow -2.5 (bought .5 point). I still really like Pittsburgh, but I'm going to lay off. I see the effort, and if they believe they can make the playoffs they can be dangerous. If they lose to Baltimore fade them the rest of the way.. The Oakland game would have only been a play at +14, it's seem to be holding at +13. I agree about MS distain for Oakland. It could be a blow out, but you always risk that in these type of matchups. AS for CHI-NE I don't like the extra .5 NE's giving, and Grossman is so unpredictable. I could see NE covering, but the time to play them is after 1 or 2 losses. Otherwise they seem to fall back to the NE is winning the Super Bowl type lines (possible fade scenario next week).

[BuffOrange]

I'm only playing ATL tomorrow -2.5  (bought .5 point).  I still really like Pittsburgh, but I'm going to lay off. I see the effort, and if they believe they can make the playoffs they can be dangerous. If they lose to Baltimore fade them the rest of the way.. The Oakland game would have only been a play at +14, it's seem to be holding at +13. I agree about MS distain for Oakland. It could be a blow out, but you always risk that in these type of matchups.  AS for CHI-NE I don't like the extra .5 NE's giving, and Grossman is so unpredictable. I could see NE covering, but the time to play them is after 1 or 2 losses. Otherwise they seem to fall back to the NE is winning the Super Bowl type lines (possible fade scenario next week).

847666[/snapback]

 

I kinda hope the Ravens win just so I can fade them next thurs. night in Cincy at a small number (I thought I never wagered on Bengal games? ).

SD-Oak is traditionally a visitors series, but the Chargers stand a much better chance at a backdoor cover given the possibility of the Raiders offense getting scored on late vs. Moss' inevitable quitting if they're losing late.

Still fully expect the -10 pt fantasy performance from Grossman that we've all come to know and love.

G/L.

[BuffOrange]

Woot, Pats pulled it out despite some uncharacteristic bad calls going against them. You were right on Oak-SD, Atlanta had some chances but squandered a lot.

 

Giants are getting 3.5 at home vs. Dallas? That looks sexy.

[daquixers_is_back]

Giants are getting 3.5 at home vs. Dallas?  That looks sexy.

849217[/snapback]

 

I dunno ... I can see Dallas beating them by a TD easy.

[BuffOrange]

I dunno ... I can see Dallas beating them by a TD easy.

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Of course they could. Getting more than 3 at home w/ a team that needs the win more involving 2 evenly matched teams isn't something you find every week though.

[daquixers_is_back]

Of course they could.  Getting more than 3 at home w/ a team that needs the win more involving 2 evenly matched teams isn't something you find every week though.

849228[/snapback]

 

This is true.