Mikie2times Posted November 20, 2006 Posted November 20, 2006 Look at how Miami is winning right now. Massive amounts of turnovers, including +4 at Chicago and two TD returns this week. Ronnie Brown is not healthy; Joey Harrington is not playing well. This 3 game winning streak is a fluke. Now Miami heads into Detroit as 3 point favorites? Even better on wagerline the public is pounding Miami at almost a 70% clip. The Lions are good at home, and usually even better on Thanksgiving. You also have to figure they will know how to defense Harrington. If you’re going to jump on I would buy now while it's still +3.
bartshan-83 Posted November 20, 2006 Posted November 20, 2006 It's already moving...you still like it at 2.5? Detroit burned me this week...but I could definitely see a victory.
Mikie2times Posted November 20, 2006 Author Posted November 20, 2006 The house or just the garage?? 843910[/snapback] It's as solid a play as you will find all year. I'll be placing my large size bet on it. I never recommend betting the house on one game.
Mikie2times Posted November 20, 2006 Author Posted November 20, 2006 It's already moving...you still like it at 2.5? Detroit burned me this week...but I could definitely see a victory. 843900[/snapback] Buy the half point, it's worth it.
DCM Posted November 20, 2006 Posted November 20, 2006 Look at how Miami is winning right now. Massive amounts of turnovers, including +4 at Chicago and two TD returns this week. Ronnie Brown is not healthy; Joey Harrington is not playing well. This 3 game winning streak is a fluke. Now Miami heads into Detroit as 3 point favorites? Even better on wagerline the public is pounding Miami at almost a 70% clip. The Lions are good at home, and usually even better on Thanksgiving. You also have to figure they will know how to defense Harrington. If you’re going to jump on I would buy now while it's still +3. 843896[/snapback] Don't you think you might be able to find a better bet? Why would you bet against a team that has just won 3 in a row over the Bears, Chiefs and Vikings? If anything the Fins have shown is that they are streaky team....losing streaks.....winning streaks..... unless you think the Fins will win but, not cover.... How healthy is the best player on the Lions tonite?
Mikie2times Posted November 20, 2006 Author Posted November 20, 2006 Don't you think you might be able to find a better bet? Why would you bet against a team that has just won 3 in a row over the Bears, Chiefs and Vikings? If anything the Fins have shown is that they are streaky team....losing streaks.....winning streaks..... unless you think the Fins will win but, not cover.... How healthy is the best player on the Lions tonite? 843947[/snapback] Because being good at handicapping doesn't involve finding a team that has already been hot. It involves finding one that is about to cool off or get hot. If this game was played before Miami/Chicago in this environment it would be Lions -3. Look at the facts DCM. Miami has been helped a ton by turnovers, and played at home 2 of the last 3. They needed 14 direct points off turnovers to beat a mediocre Minnesota team at home. Harrington has several issues and it would be shocking if after 4+ years the Lions aren't aware how to exploit them. The majority of people think they way you think when it comes to betting, and the majority of people lose.
DCM Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 Because being good at handicapping doesn't involve finding a team that has already been hot. It involves finding one that is about to cool off or get hot. If this game was played before Miami/Chicago in this environment it would be Lions -3. Look at the facts DCM. Miami has been helped a ton by turnovers, and played at home 2 of the last 3. They needed 14 direct points off turnovers to beat a mediocre Minnesota team at home. Harrington has several issues and it would be shocking if after 4+ years the Lions aren't aware how to exploit them. The majority of people think they way you think when it comes to betting, and the majority of people lose. 843960[/snapback] Sooooo you think the Lions are about to "get hot"? They just friggin' lost to the friggin' Cardinals and looked really bad doing it.... I'm not calling you out on your betting prowess.....just not buying your reasons for declaring the Lions as a sure fire bet. Turnovers are probably one of the most determining factors that decide who wins and who loses by "x" amount of points...I guess if your stance is that the Fins were "given" these turnovers and not "forced" them, I would agree more with you. Besides, I admit I'm bias.....I'm still giddy because I picked up the Fin defense for my fantasy team off free agency and they scored BIG for me! I just think the Dolphin defense is playing really well right now, don't know the rankings.....they are just making plays. I just can't see the Lions all of a sudden playing like the Chargers this week just cuz they have turkey waiting for them at home. No Kevin Jones will hurt them if he can't go.....Ronnie was shut down, absolutely shut down by the number 1 run defense in the entire NFL.....and they still managed a win and cover..... My 1 biggest concern going into Detroit is Olindo Mare....seems his confidence is shaky....and if you have a shaky kicker in a close game....well, you know.
BuffOrange Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 I'm inclined to agree. KC always looks juicy to me whenever they're a home dog too. Also pretty sure NE will beat the Bears, but much to my surprise/disappointment NE is actually favored by 3.
MDH Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 I'd stay away from that game with Kevin Jones nursing an ankle sprain.
Mikie2times Posted November 21, 2006 Author Posted November 21, 2006 Sooooo you think the Lions are about to "get hot"? They just friggin' lost to the friggin' Cardinals and looked really bad doing it.... I'm not calling you out on your betting prowess.....just not buying your reasons for declaring the Lions as a sure fire bet. Turnovers are probably one of the most determining factors that decide who wins and who loses by "x" amount of points...I guess if your stance is that the Fins were "given" these turnovers and not "forced" them, I would agree more with you. Besides, I admit I'm bias.....I'm still giddy because I picked up the Fin defense for my fantasy team off free agency and they scored BIG for me! I just think the Dolphin defense is playing really well right now, don't know the rankings.....they are just making plays. I just can't see the Lions all of a sudden playing like the Chargers this week just cuz they have turkey waiting for them at home. No Kevin Jones will hurt them if he can't go.....Ronnie was shut down, absolutely shut down by the number 1 run defense in the entire NFL.....and they still managed a win and cover..... My 1 biggest concern going into Detroit is Olindo Mare....seems his confidence is shaky....and if you have a shaky kicker in a close game....well, you know. 843982[/snapback] It has nothing to do with the Lions getting hot. The Dolphins are about to get cold, or at the very least colder then the box scores have been the last few weeks. They've needed turnovers and defensive TD's to win the last few weeks. That's fine, teams find different ways to win. But even if they’re legitimate turnovers it's happening at a rate that no team can keep up with. They also have a QB who throws a lot of picks. Something will give eventually, and they have nobody to pick up the slack when it does.
BuffOrange Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 Sooooo you think the Lions are about to "get hot"? They just friggin' lost to the friggin' Cardinals and looked really bad doing it.... I'm not calling you out on your betting prowess.....just not buying your reasons for declaring the Lions as a sure fire bet. Turnovers are probably one of the most determining factors that decide who wins and who loses by "x" amount of points...I guess if your stance is that the Fins were "given" these turnovers and not "forced" them, I would agree more with you. Besides, I admit I'm bias.....I'm still giddy because I picked up the Fin defense for my fantasy team off free agency and they scored BIG for me! 843982[/snapback] Kzoo is absolutely correct. In true TBD fashion, you just can't resist the straw-man argument. Nobody is saying that the Lions are going to "get hot" or that they're a sure bet. It's just that the general public puts way too much stock into the previous 2 weeks of games when its true impact is minimal. There are countless examples this year: "OMG how is ATL only -5 @Detroit after lighting up the Steelers", "Baltimore only -6 @Cleveland?", "The Chargers only -5 @KC who barely beat Arizona last week?" Sure there are examples of the 'hot' road favorite covering as well (they did unusually well last year), but in the long run they are losers. And yeah, a positive turnover table usually wins, generally because a team gets behind and starts throwing. Fumble recoveries are luck, much less those that are returned for 60 yard TD's. Good teams don't consistently win games with those kind of plays when they're trailing in the 4th Qtr.
Ramius Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 Look at how Miami is winning right now. Massive amounts of turnovers, including +4 at Chicago and two TD returns this week. Ronnie Brown is not healthy; Joey Harrington is not playing well. This 3 game winning streak is a fluke. Now Miami heads into Detroit as 3 point favorites? Even better on wagerline the public is pounding Miami at almost a 70% clip. The Lions are good at home, and usually even better on Thanksgiving. You also have to figure they will know how to defense Harrington. If you’re going to jump on I would buy now while it's still +3. 843896[/snapback] Blinker2 doesnt have his house to bet anymore. He lost it by betting the colts -12 vs the bills. Do you accept bets of cardboard boxes?
East Brady Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 It has nothing to do with the Lions getting hot. The Dolphins are about to get cold, or at the very least colder then the box scores have been the last few weeks. They've needed turnovers and defensive TD's to win the last few weeks. That's fine, teams find different ways to win. But even if they’re legitimate turnovers it's happening at a rate that no team can keep up with. They also have a QB who throws a lot of picks. Something will give eventually, and they have nobody to pick up the slack when it does. 844033[/snapback] Keep it coming, Any reads on the weekend games... What are you looking at ??
daquixers_is_back Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 It's as solid a play as you will find all year. I'll be placing my large size bet on it. I never recommend betting the house on one game. 843938[/snapback] Agreed. I think its one of the more solid bets this week.
Chilly Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 Miami's winning streak might be a fluke, but Detroit sucks bad.
smokinandjokin Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 Miami's winning streak might be a fluke, but Detroit sucks bad. 844935[/snapback] The very worst of the worst Detroit teams have ALWAYS shown up on Thanksgiving. And this is the year of the home underdog.
Dante Posted November 21, 2006 Posted November 21, 2006 No Kevin Jones though. Although the Lions do play well on Thanksgiving I cant see why they would be solid bet under any circumstances. jmho
Mikie2times Posted November 21, 2006 Author Posted November 21, 2006 No Kevin Jones though. Although the Lions do play well on Thanksgiving I cant see why they would be solid bet under any circumstances. jmho 844994[/snapback] True, the Lions are so bad they will probably be around .500 ATS.
DCM Posted November 23, 2006 Posted November 23, 2006 The very worst of the worst Detroit teams have ALWAYS shown up on Thanksgiving. And this is the year of the home underdog. 844939[/snapback] ALWAYS shown up on Thanksgiving? You mean like last year? Or the year before? Without looking it up, I think they got outscored by over 50 points! News Flash......The Lions are always home underdogs.....
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