Chilly Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 - I think the Republicans have definitely showed their strength with their much, much better strategies close to the election. National polls have showed an increase in favorable Republican opinion over the past day or so. - Its 48-48 in the Senate with four tossups: *Tennessee - This has been back and forth all campaign season, and has just shifted to be Corker by about 4-5%. This is part of the Republican firewall, so I think that the Republican push at the end will end up giving the Republicans this one. *Virginia - This has been the most surprising one, and also one of the most watched contests across the country. Government corruption has been one of the top issues cited in polls, and thats not usually a good sign for the incumbent. Its a tossup, but because of the issues, I'm going to say that Webb squeaks this one out. Democrats win. *Missouri - This is the closest race in the whole election. Its been at a 49-48 tie in 6 consecutive polls by Rasmussen. 92% of Democrats are backing McCaskill, with 91% of Republicans backing Talent. More people in the US identify themselves as Democrats then Republicans, but historically have high defection rates and poor turnout numbers. Given the state of politics, I think McCaskill has a very slightly better shot at this one. Democrats win. This leaves the balance of power coming down to one state: *Montana - Tester used to be up by a bunch, but now is in a dead heat with Burns. Thats really bad news for Tester, as losing strength right at the end usually dooms you. Bush still has around a 50% approval rating in Montana, and he's bee reminding Montana's voters of the dangers of a Democratic controlled congress. This is very bad news for Tester, especially in an environment where the voters want to throw Burns, who is viewed as corrupt, out of office. Ironically, the Republican weakness this year is Burns' strong point. Looks like Conrad Burns takes this one. This means that its a 50-50 tie, in which Republicans still have control via the VP. - The Democrats should pick up the House by a decent margin of seats. I'm thinking it'll be 211 GOP, 224 Democrats or a 13 seat margin. - Democrats should have control over many of the Governorships. - The state governments are pretty important this year, as it determines incumbency for the last election cycles before the next census and redistricting. - I'm in political science for the entertainment of it all, and this next week should prove to be just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungee Jumper Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 - I think the Republicans have definitely showed their strength with their much, much better strategies close to the election. National polls have showed an increase in favorable Republican opinion over the past day or so. 827386[/snapback] Which is an embarrassment to the American public, if their opinions are so shallow that four days of empty rhetoric can cause such a swing. American society is SO screwed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Which is an embarrassment to the American public, if their opinions are so shallow that four days of empty rhetoric can cause such a swing. American society is SO screwed... 827401[/snapback] I definitely take it as a result of the American publics apathy toward politics and evidence of memory-based attitude formation. The newer things are, when you are forced to make a decision on something that you don't really know/care about, you remember those first, giving them priority. Disengagement places emphasis on current events. The public needs to become involved again. Politics used to be a common place discussion at pubs or saloons. Thats not the case anymore. People view discussing politics as creating problems and ruining good times instead of discussion. The media tends to prefer sound bites and talking heads rather then discussion as its more "entertaining" and sells better. A guy ranting, raving, and yelling about politics (Rush, O'Reilly, Olberman, etc) is, unfortunately, what people find entertaining. The "real" TV news programs, like the network nightly news, has such limited time that they almost have to be reduced to sound bites (in addition to lower costs, better ratings, etc). Newspapers definitely offer more space and resources to discuss events, but they fail to engage most people. Its not as convenient or entertaining as TV news, where you get motion, sound, and other resources not available in a newspaper. Basically, in my opinion, the problem is that society teaches to not discuss politics, and the media teaches to not discuss politics. There no one there advocating that discussing politics, thinking about, and caring about the issues is a necessary and good thing for both your personal lives and the country as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 827448[/snapback] The hell is wrong with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 The hell is wrong with you? 827452[/snapback] Monkeys in the zoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Monkeys in the zoo. 827454[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungee Jumper Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 827458[/snapback] Just leave it. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Just leave it. Trust me. 827487[/snapback] Yeah, my monkeys don't throw crap, they whack off and make loud screeching noises. Of course both types tend to be annoying and stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 This leaves the balance of power coming down to one state: 827386[/snapback] Add the R.I. Senate seat back into it, too. One of the latest polls had Chafee up by 2%, another at the same time from someone else had Whitehouse up by 3%. Despite what you said a few weeks ago, and said by omission here, this one is going to be really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Add the R.I. Senate seat back into it, too. One of the latest polls had Chafee up by 2%, another at the same time from someone else had Whitehouse up by 3%. Despite what you said a few weeks ago, and said by omission here, this one is going to be really close. 827545[/snapback] A.) Who did the polls? B.) What were the methodologies involved? I'd like to know more before I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 I think the senate stays republican. Virginia - Allen Missouir - Talent Montana - Burns in a shocker Tennessee - Corker (Though I like Ford) I really dont see democrats taking ANY of the hotly contested seats. Rhode Island is in play as well. There is a recent Mason-Dixon poll showing Steele down by just 2 in Maryland. I think the republicans do as well as they realistically can tomorrow. I think NJ goes democratic. People are quick to talk about the FOX News Dynamic poll showing larger gains for democrats, but keep in mind, in 2004 the same poll showed Kerry up by 5 points in the last poll before the election. So, its hard to take these polls too seriously. My gut says 53-45-2, with Lieberman and Sanders caucusing with the Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 People are quick to talk about the FOX News Dynamic poll showing larger gains for democrats, but keep in mind, in 2004 the same poll showed Kerry up by 5 points in the last poll before the election. So, its hard to take these polls too seriously. 827610[/snapback] 5 points = within Margin of Error = statistical tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted November 8, 2006 Author Share Posted November 8, 2006 Add the R.I. Senate seat back into it, too. One of the latest polls had Chafee up by 2%, another at the same time from someone else had Whitehouse up by 3%. Despite what you said a few weeks ago, and said by omission here, this one is going to be really close. 827545[/snapback] See why I was skeptical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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