Mikie2times Posted November 7, 2006 Author Posted November 7, 2006 HAHA OK .. if they do I would one of the happiest people on earth that day. Out of $130 .. but still happy. 828476[/snapback] I'm not trying to be a hater, but I saw your picks from last week and now you’re on the Colts? Books heavily adjust the spreads in games with a large public support. You will hit and cover a few, but over the course of the season you'll fry. Think about it. Very few people make money handicapping, and you’re doing exactly what everybody else is doing. To have any chance you need to be doing the exact opposite of everybody else, and under isolated conditions.
Bflojohn Posted November 7, 2006 Posted November 7, 2006 If, and that is a big IF, the Bills get into the backfield and harrass Lord Peyton, somewhat like the Patriots did Sunday night, I think he might have one of his fits, railing on his O-line! Also, if I'm Dick Jauron here, I never abandon the running game, no matter the score in the first half. The looming a$$-kicking aside people, I'd still attack this team where they are MOST vulnerable. The mere fact that the Colts had a hand full with Tennessee and the NY Jets points up that they are NOT without flaw themselves. Any team that ranks near the bottom in rush "D" can be beat....plain and simple! Now the queston is is Buffalo up for the challenge?
Mikie2times Posted November 7, 2006 Author Posted November 7, 2006 If, and that is a big IF, the Bills get into the backfield and harrass Lord Peyton, somewhat like the Patriots did Sunday night, I think he might have one of his fits, railing on his O-line! Also, if I'm Dick Jauron here, I never abandon the running game, no matter the score in the first half. The looming a$$-kicking aside people, I'd still attack this team where they are MOST vulnerable. The mere fact that the Colts had a hand full with Tennessee and the NY Jets points up that they are NOT without flaw themselves. Any team that ranks near the bottom in rush "D" can be beat....plain and simple! Now the queston is is Buffalo up for the challenge? 828612[/snapback] That's my point. I'll take it a step further past the Buffalo game. NO WAY IN HELL DO THE COLTS WIN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP. I don't care how hyped they're or how close they get to 16-0. Being almost dead last in yards allowed and per carry? They can mask that all year against teams they can outscore 21-0 in the 1st. At some point in the playoffs a good team will exploit it, just as some bad teams have in the regular season.
daquixers_is_back Posted November 7, 2006 Posted November 7, 2006 I'm not trying to be a hater, but I saw your picks from last week and now you’re on the Colts? Books heavily adjust the spreads in games with a large public support. You will hit and cover a few, but over the course of the season you'll fry. Think about it. Very few people make money handicapping, and you’re doing exactly what everybody else is doing. To have any chance you need to be doing the exact opposite of everybody else, and under isolated conditions. 828601[/snapback] Well, I think A LOT of people lost money last week. Their were rumors of upset in the Atlanta game but I think the majority picked Atlanta (especially with a teaser). Texans covering the spread against Giants at home? A lot of people lost money on that game ... and 99% of the world lost their paycheck on the Chicago/Miami game. Not really sure I can be blamed for such a bad week. Through 8 games, Ive won some weeks and lost some weeks. Not really that much under if anything.
daquixers_is_back Posted November 7, 2006 Posted November 7, 2006 That's my point. I'll take it a step further past the Buffalo game. NO WAY IN HELL DO THE COLTS WIN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP. I don't care how hyped they're or how close they get to 16-0. Being almost dead last in yards allowed and per carry? They can mask that all year against teams they can outscore 21-0 in the 1st. At some point in the playoffs a good team will exploit it, just as some bad teams have in the regular season. 828623[/snapback] Everyone uses that theory and its just stupid. Teams they beat during the regular season dont just automatically get better in the playoffs. The Colts WILL play or have ALREADY played this season any/all teams they will see after their 1st round bye in the playoffs (with the exception of Baltimore). They have played and beat New England, Jacksonville, and Denver. The only other team they have to play is Cinci. If they can beat these teams in the regular season (by a 6 point margin diff BTW), then their is no reason they cant beat them in the playoffs. They just have to be more consistant and Vinatieri has to make field goals (he missed 2 against NE which would have widened the score).
Fan in San Diego Posted November 7, 2006 Posted November 7, 2006 My upset pick of the week. Nobody expects the Bills to win. I do expect them to win. I predict the Bills by 14 points ! Take that to the bank. my LAMP part : By the way, I predicted the Miami win.
daquixers_is_back Posted November 7, 2006 Posted November 7, 2006 My upset pick of the week. Nobody expects the Bills to win. I do expect them to win. I predict the Bills by 14 points ! Take that to the bank. my LAMP part : By the way, I predicted the Miami win. 828669[/snapback] You could win A LOT of money using "margin victory" of sportsinteraction.com ... picking the underdog with a high margin yields high payouts. I wish I saw that Miami game coming. No way I would have predicted that though.
Mikie2times Posted November 7, 2006 Author Posted November 7, 2006 Well, I think A LOT of people lost money last week. Their were rumors of upset in the Atlanta game but I think the majority picked Atlanta (especially with a teaser). Texans covering the spread against Giants at home? A lot of people lost money on that game ... and 99% of the world lost their paycheck on the Chicago/Miami game. Not really sure I can be blamed for such a bad week. Through 8 games, Ive won some weeks and lost some weeks. Not really that much under if anything. 828663[/snapback] That's my point. You will never have safety in numbers in betting the NFL. Everybody bets the same way. They see a good team against a bad team, and hammer the good team despite the points. In this match up action is slanted over 75% toward the Colts. You need to look at every game from the view point of the bookie, and the motivation of the teams at hand. Look at most online books. They provide you with heavy statistical analysis free of charge. You think it' to help you win? It took me years to break the psychology of betting against the better teams. It's ingrained in us all, and that’s what the bookie takes advantage of. I've researched these topics for hundreds of hours. Trust me I'm trying to help you on this. You may or may not win your bet this weekend, but I promise this strategy won't win you anything in the long run.
daquixers_is_back Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 That's my point. You will never have safety in numbers in betting the NFL. Everybody bets the same way. They see a good team against a bad team, and hammer the good team despite the points. In this match up action is slanted over 75% toward the Colts. You need to look at every game from the view point of the bookie, and the motivation of the teams at hand. Look at most online books. They provide you with heavy statistical analysis free of charge. You think it' to help you win? It took me years to break the psychology of betting against the better teams. It's ingrained in us all, and that’s what the bookie takes advantage of. I've researched these topics for hundreds of hours. Trust me I'm trying to help you on this. You may or may not win your bet this weekend, but I promise this strategy won't win you anything in the long run. 828699[/snapback] I dont usually bet point spreads. For the most part I bet: 1. A 4-5 bet parlay with teaser of 6-7 pts each 2. A 9 team parlay with points but will only put $5 on it 3. Pick teams straight up
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 We're going to get destroyed. Manning is the best qb in the league. He always find a way to win.
nemhoff Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 we are gonna get killed, no blind optimism here please
daquixers_is_back Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 We're going to get destroyed. Manning is the best qb in the league. He always find a way to win. 829016[/snapback] I wouldnt say that in this board of Brady lovers.
Dibs Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 My upset pick of the week. Nobody expects the Bills to win. I do expect them to win. I predict the Bills by 14 points ! Take that to the bank. my LAMP part : By the way, I predicted the Miami win. 828669[/snapback] What is(& was re: Miami) your reasoning.....or is it just gut?
Fan in San Diego Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 What is(& was re: Miami) your reasoning.....or is it just gut? 829160[/snapback] Historically it seems to me that undefeated teams always seem to lose against the perceived weakest teams. Combine that with Nick Saban's rising frustration with the team and I guessed he was going to really have his team focused for this game. Same situation for the Colts game. Let down after two really big games for the Colts, and the Bills really getting focused after this win against GB. They don't want to lose again.
Dibs Posted November 8, 2006 Posted November 8, 2006 Historically it seems to me that undefeated teams always seem to lose against the perceived weakest teams. Combine that with Nick Saban's rising frustration with the team and I guessed he was going to really have his team focused for this game.Same situation for the Colts game. Let down after two really big games for the Colts, and the Bills really getting focused after this win against GB. They don't want to lose again. 829185[/snapback] Actually....now you mention it I do recall(& I'm probablygetting it all wrong...strictly from memory) back in the year before the Colts got Manning they were the worst team in the league & came up against the Packers(superbowl defending?....I can't be bothered to check)....the Colts got their only(?) win of the season. As I said, I bet I got all the details wrong apart from the crappy Colts beat a top team. Fingers crossed. GO BILLS!!!
Patience Posted November 12, 2006 Posted November 12, 2006 I wouldnt say that in this board of Brady lovers. 829047[/snapback] Manning's got the stats, Brady's got the rings. Kind of the same thing as Montana vs. Marino.
gizmo6824 Posted November 12, 2006 Posted November 12, 2006 It all boils down to us staying close early, allowing us to establish the run. I don't think we will pull the upset, but I see Buffalo being more competitive then people think. The Colts can be run on, and A-Train is good straight ahead with some power. I see his style being effective against the Colts undersized and undermanned interior. When teams control the ball by running the Colts have been human. Look at the 14-13 comeback win at home they had over Tennessee. They can't score if they don't have the ball. More along these lines is the potential for a Colts letdown. After a huge win at Denver, and then a very physical win last night, I have a hard time believing they will be fully up for our lowly Bills. On the flip side Buffalo should have a little confidence boost from the win verse GB. Crazy? 827237[/snapback] indy has a d just like ours, but more years in the system, manning see's this every week, all week before each game....so i think he will pick us apart. but if we can run alday on them like denver did and keep manning on the sidelines, maybe keep it close, alls it takes is a couple of turn overs from indy and we are ok...i've always loved this match up with indy even when they were afc east...so lets just pound the rock and take our lumps and near the end throw at the endzone every chance we get.....lets go buffalo....
The Senator Posted November 12, 2006 Posted November 12, 2006 Indoor game, so wind/weather not a factor for passing, and should be great for Moorman/Lindell. Run A-Train hard to open the pass, avoid stupid penalities, mistakes, turnovers, etc. If our D can keep Indy honest - maybe put some pressure on Manning, I smell a big upset... Bills - 20 Dolts-17 It would not surprise or shock me at all - I'm expecting a Bills win today! GO BILLSSS!!!!!!!!!!!
Frez Posted November 12, 2006 Posted November 12, 2006 Indoor game, so wind/weather not a factor for passing, and should be great for Moorman/Lindell. Run A-Train hard to open the pass, avoid stupid penalities, mistakes, turnovers, etc. If our D can keep Indy honest - maybe put some pressure on Manning, I smell a big upset... Bills - 20 Dolts-17 It would not surprise or shock me at all - I'm expecting a Bills win today! GO BILLSSS!!!!!!!!!!! 832803[/snapback] What's in your coffee?
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