JDG Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 That said, your hate for this kid disqualifies you from making a pertinent comment on him, nor the entire situation, or so I see it. 829628[/snapback] Right. I guess that its just impossible in the group-think world of TBD to think that Losman is a bad NFL QB without hating him. Nevermind that I personally like Losman's attitude, that I like the way that he handles himself in press Conferences, and I like his occasionally flashes of brilliance in making something happen out of a broken play. No, nevermind all that, because if I just happen to think that there are about 30 QBs in the NFL that are playing better than Losman right now, and if I just happen to think that Losman is in the lowest tier of all recent first-round NFL QB's in their third season (whether they had played before then or not), well then, that must mean that I hate him. Observations of on-the-field performance be damned...... Whatever. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Not at all..... care to take a look at the history of QB's in their third year, whether they started as rookies and 2nd year players or not? Some names like Pennington and Rivers immediately come to mind..... 829777[/snapback] Oh, you're absolutely right. Especially because Pennington and Rivers went through a bunch of coaching, scheme and management changes during their years with their respective teams. I believe Pennington went through five years of having Edwards his coach, then Edwards his coach, then Edwards again followed by Edwards two more times. In fact, Rivers went through the exact same problem since Marty was his first coach before he was replaced with Marty, and then Marty again for three more years. And that's really rough since Rivers is in his THIRD year. When a guy like me can poke holes in your thinking, it's really time to stop thinking out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungee Jumper Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 I believe Pennington went through five years of having Edwards his coach, then Edwards his coach, then Edwards again followed by Edwards two more times. 829841[/snapback] Of course, you're talking about Herm Edwards. So that may very well be three coaching changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Not at all..... care to take a look at the history of QB's in their third year, whether they started as rookies and 2nd year players or not? Some names like Pennington and Rivers immediately come to mind..... 829777[/snapback] Care to look at the starting offensive lines of said NYJ and SD teams when these guys took over in their third years? Of course you don't care to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 (edited) Har, har har..... Everyone is very good at finding excuses for why JP Losman's expectations should be lower than those of every other QB that has been successful in the NFL...... Of course, while everyone is coming with excuses, everyone seems a lot less good with coming up with examples of QB's who performed as badly as JP Losman in their third year in the NFL. (crickets chirping) That's the beautiful thing about excuses, you come up with enough of them, and you eventually conclude that in the last 20 years in the NFL, JP Losman is the first third-year QB who was mobile, AND who had a below-average offensive line, AND who had an offensive coordinator change, AND who was handed a starting job in training camp, AND who was benched for performance, AND who played college at a non-BCS school, AND who played high school in California, AND who played in an outdoor stadium, AND.... eventually you get enough excuses so that there aren't *any* comparable QB's to JP Losman at all! Thus, you end up perfectly happy trotting out the worst starting QB in the NFL under center each Sunday, because at least he's the *BESTEST* QB with all of your excuses! Yippee! Is it so wrong for a Bills fan to think that *even despite all the excuses* that maybe, just maybe, JP Losman should be a little better of a starting NFL QB by now than he already is if he was truly likely to turn into "the franchise" for us at some point in the future? I'm not even saying that you have to agree with me... just wondering why it is so wrong to even think that... JDG Edited November 9, 2006 by JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 Har, har har..... Everyone is very good at finding excuses for why JP Losman's expectations should be lower than those of every other QB that has been successful in the NFL...... Of course, while everyone is coming with excuses, everyone seems a lot less good with coming up with examples of QB's who performed as badly as JP Losman in their third year in the NFL. (crickets chirping) That's the beautiful thing about excuses, you come up with enough of them, and you eventually conclude that in the last 20 years in the NFL, JP Losman is the first third-year QB who was mobile, AND who had a below-average offensive line, AND who had an offensive coordinator change, AND who was handed a starting job in training camp, AND who was benched for performance, AND who played college at a non-BCS school, AND who played high school in California, AND who played in an outdoor stadium, AND.... eventually you get enough excuses so that there aren't *any* comparable QB's to JP Losman at all! Thus, you end up perfectly happy trotting out the worst starting QB in the NFL under center each Sunday, because at least he's the *BESTEST* QB with all of your excuses! Yippee! Is it so wrong for a Bills fan to think that *even despite all the excuses* that maybe, just maybe, JP Losman should be a little better of a starting NFL QB by now than he already is if he was truly likely to turn into "the franchise" for us at some point in the future? I'm not even saying that you have to agree with me... just wondering why it is so wrong to even think that... JDG 830171[/snapback] One would think, after 5 years registered, that you;d at least be a halfway decent poster with a rational point to make once in a while. Once again, we are proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 One would think, after 5 years registered, that you;d at least be a halfway decent poster with a rational point to make once in a while. Once again, we are proven wrong. 830332[/snapback] Gosh, that must mean that you have over two more years to go, then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 .....and is putting up some abysmal numbers for a 3rd-year QB......829534[/snapback] Since the QBR is a figure based on the overall 'numbers' of a QB.....Brady 83.5 QBR Hasselbeck 82.8 QBR Pennington 82.3 QBR Rex Grossman 81.1 QBR Delhomme 80.3 QBR (18th)JPL 80.2 QBR Favre 78.8 QBR McNair 73.8 QBR Johnson 73.1 QBR Plummer 72.5 QBR BIG BEN 72.2 QBR and just because..... Leinart 66.9 QBR Gradkowski 73.7 QBR Smith 79.7 QBR His 'numbers' are actually OK.....considering everything, if you added just 3 40 yard TD passes(which should come with better experience/OL/etc) & JPs 'numbers' would be up there inside the top 10. I'm not saying the 'numbers' make him good(they are just numbers) but if you bring up a factor......make sure you are right or prepare to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 His 'numbers' are actually OK.....considering everything, if you added just 3 40 yard TD passes(which should come with better experience/OL/etc) & JPs 'numbers' would be up there inside the top 10. I'm not saying the 'numbers' make him good(they are just numbers) but if you bring up a factor......make sure you are right or prepare to be proven wrong. 830363[/snapback] How man QB's have passed for 105 or less meaningful yards in three games???? All you've proven is that average QB rating really can't tell you the whole story..... JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkFast Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 How man QB's have passed for 105 or less meaningful yards in three games???? All you've proven is that average QB rating really can't tell you the whole story..... JDG 830465[/snapback] Come on, JDG...you KNOW around here that if you have a different opinion that marching in lockstep with the company line, youre a "bad fan." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 How man QB's have passed for 105 or less meaningful yards in three games???? All you've proven is that average QB rating really can't tell you the whole story..... JDG 830465[/snapback] so what you are saying is that any QB that you think looks like sh-- ( and i say you think ) we should send down the road packing . lets ask you this , if we had drafted DB instead of san diego you would be sending him packing after his 3rd season . not all QBs have good first or 2nd seasons or 3rd you have to give QBs time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 so what you are saying is that any QB that you think looks like sh-- ( and i say you think ) we should send down the road packing . lets ask you this , if we had drafted DB instead of san diego you would be sending him packing after his 3rd season . not all QBs have good first or 2nd seasons or 3rd you have to give QBs time . 830492[/snapback] Except for the fact that Drew Brees had a pretty good first season - or at least a better first season than either of JP Losman's seasons so far. I obviously spent a lot less time observing Drew Brees than I have JP Losman. His second season was certainly pretty bad. But I think that you can have more patience for sitting through a "bad spell" by a QB when that QB has already had some "good spells." I think it is very arguable that Drew Brees would fit into the category, based on what I remember of his first season, looking at what he did that year.... The other problem is that while Drew Brees had a bad second season in his third year, plenty other QB's also struggled early - Cade McNown, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, David Klingler, etc. Some guys, like Dan McGwire and Tommy Maddox, were drafted in the first round and never even got as far as JP Losman has in terms of starting experience. Moreover, I wouldn't be surprised if JP Losman's track record in his first 16 games isn't perhaps even slightly worse than those of some of the above QB's. It's like the old line "You know they called Jesus crazy" and "Yes, but they also called about a billion other guys who really were crazy, 'crazy' too..." You say that you "have to QB's time", but I personally think that there are scant few examples of QB's who have had as bad years in their 2nd and 3rd seasons, and who went on to become productive NFL starters. That's not necessarily to aruge that no QB has ever had a bad 2nd and 3rd year in the League and gone on to be successful, but just that JP Losman is at a level right now that I would describe as being "worse than bad." In my mind the Qb's that "you have to give time" to are those that show a minimum level of basic competency, and the one's that fail that level of basic competency you cut your losses on and move on. Thus, All I'm saying is that we should call a spade a spade, and that JP Losman is not at the level right now that we need him to be at this stage of his development, and if he can't at least get to that minimum level of development in the next couple weeks, we aught to start thinking about our options... JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 Except for the fact that Drew Brees had a pretty good first season - or at least a better first season than either of JP Losman's seasons so far. I obviously spent a lot less time observing Drew Brees than I have JP Losman. His second season was certainly pretty bad. But I think that you can have more patience for sitting through a "bad spell" by a QB when that QB has already had some "good spells." I think it is very arguable that Drew Brees would fit into the category, based on what I remember of his first season, looking at what he did that year.... The other problem is that while Drew Brees had a bad second season in his third year, plenty other QB's also struggled early - Cade McNown, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, David Klingler, etc. Some guys, like Dan McGwire and Tommy Maddox, were drafted in the first round and never even got as far as JP Losman has in terms of starting experience. Moreover, I wouldn't be surprised if JP Losman's track record in his first 16 games isn't perhaps even slightly worse than those of some of the above QB's. It's like the old line "You know they called Jesus crazy" and "Yes, but they also called about a billion other guys who really were crazy, 'crazy' too..." You say that you "have to QB's time", but I personally think that there are scant few examples of QB's who have had as bad years in their 2nd and 3rd seasons, and who went on to become productive NFL starters. That's not necessarily to aruge that no QB has ever had a bad 2nd and 3rd year in the League and gone on to be successful, but just that JP Losman is at a level right now that I would describe as being "worse than bad." In my mind the Qb's that "you have to give time" to are those that show a minimum level of basic competency, and the one's that fail that level of basic competency you cut your losses on and move on. Thus, All I'm saying is that we should call a spade a spade, and that JP Losman is not at the level right now that we need him to be at this stage of his development, and if he can't at least get to that minimum level of development in the next couple weeks, we aught to start thinking about our options... JDG 830584[/snapback] why do you put JDG on the bottom of every post ??? just asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungee Jumper Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 why do you put JDG on the bottom of every post ??? just asking 830594[/snapback] The same reason you put drool over every post. He's got to be himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 Har, har har..... Everyone is very good at finding excuses for why JP Losman's expectations should be lower than those of every other QB that has been successful in the NFL...... Of course, while everyone is coming with excuses, everyone seems a lot less good with coming up with examples of QB's who performed as badly as JP Losman in their third year in the NFL. (crickets chirping) 830171[/snapback] Maybe if you read some posts supporting JP you'd see that you're in fact wrong. But seeing how you don't, here you go with some examples of QB's third year numbers... NAME / PCT / TD / INT Phil Simms 50.6 / 11 / 9 Drew Brees 57.6 / 11 / 15 Terry Bradshaw 47.7 / 12 / 12 Dan Fouts 54.4 / 2 / 10 Warren Moon 52.5 / 13 / 26 Steve McNair 52.0 / 14 / 13 Matt Hasselback 54.8 / 7 / 8 JP Losman 61.3 / 14 / 12 (approx. by doubling numbers of first eight games) Sorry to let some silly facts get in the way of your misguided theory. But you have no clue what kind of QB Losman will turn out to be at this point. You can pretend all you want, but that's all you'd be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 10, 2006 Share Posted November 10, 2006 How man QB's have passed for 105 or less meaningful yards in three games???? All you've proven is that average QB rating really can't tell you the whole story..... JDG 830465[/snapback] Which is why I even stated...."I'm not saying the 'numbers' make him good(they are just numbers)". What I was pointing out to you though was the QBR is a combination of all his numbers(except sacks). He is 18th in QBR.....20th in YPA.....14th in completion percentage. Your statement of him having "abysmal numbers" is not warranted. Sure he has had some bad games(in regards to the numbers), but so too has most QBs in the league. Overall, his numbers are comparable to a majority of his peers. I do not think he is playing as well as a majority of his peers.....but his numbers (for the most of it) do not reflect this. YPA is a better indicator of a QB than YPG. BTW, it is 3 games of 115 & under not 105. Vick....6 games of 163 & under Plummer 3 games of 138 & under McNair 4 games of 165 & under Pennington 2 games of 108 & under Smith 3 of 135 & under(4 under 165) Carr 2 of 128 & under Frye 3 of 149 & under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoho Posted November 10, 2006 Share Posted November 10, 2006 Maybe if you read some posts supporting JP you'd see that you're in fact wrong. But seeing how you don't, here you go with some examples of QB's third year numbers... NAME / PCT / TD / INT Phil Simms 50.6 / 11 / 9 Drew Brees 57.6 / 11 / 15 Terry Bradshaw 47.7 / 12 / 12 Dan Fouts 54.4 / 2 / 10 Warren Moon 52.5 / 13 / 26 Steve McNair 52.0 / 14 / 13 Matt Hasselback 54.8 / 7 / 8 JP Losman 61.3 / 14 / 12 (approx. by doubling numbers of first eight games) Sorry to let some silly facts get in the way of your misguided theory. But you have no clue what kind of QB Losman will turn out to be at this point. You can pretend all you want, but that's all you'd be doing. 830657[/snapback] Wow, this is the precise kind of factual post that requires a response from those who "know" that J.P. is one of the worst. But it is also the type of post that will be ignored by those making the opposite case. Please, if you believe that JP is a bust, refute this email and prove to me why he is different than these guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 10, 2006 Share Posted November 10, 2006 Maybe if you read some posts supporting JP you'd see that you're in fact wrong. But seeing how you don't, here you go with some examples of QB's third year numbers... NAME / PCT / TD / INT Phil Simms 50.6 / 11 / 9 Drew Brees 57.6 / 11 / 15 Terry Bradshaw 47.7 / 12 / 12 Dan Fouts 54.4 / 2 / 10 Warren Moon 52.5 / 13 / 26 Steve McNair 52.0 / 14 / 13 Matt Hasselback 54.8 / 7 / 8 JP Losman 61.3 / 14 / 12 (approx. by doubling numbers of first eight games) Sorry to let some silly facts get in the way of your misguided theory. But you have no clue what kind of QB Losman will turn out to be at this point. You can pretend all you want, but that's all you'd be doing. 830657[/snapback] Well said.....here is some more.... NAME / PCT / TD / INT Jim Kelly 59.5 / 15 / 17 Ben Roethilberger 64.1 / 14 / 28(approx. by doubling numbers of first eight games) Bart Starr 49.7 / 3 / 12 Y.A.Title 51.0 / 11 / 12 Bob Griese 48.0 / 10 / 16 Bobby Layne 45.2 / 16 / 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted November 10, 2006 Share Posted November 10, 2006 quote] What I was pointing out to you though was the QBR is a combination of all his numbers(except sacks). He is 18th in QBR.....20th in YPA.....14th in completion percentage. Yes, QB Rating is a combination of a variety of numbers. Yet, it is a completely arbitrary combination of these numbers, and I'm not at all convinced that it is a particularly good one. Among other criticisms, the QB Rating rewards passing touchdowns, but if you pass the ball to the one and then run it in, you get no credit. Your statement of him having "abysmal numbers" is not warranted. If we're going to get into a round-about of whether or not JP Losman's numbers this year are "abysmal", I'd just as soon drop the subject, as something that I just said a little too heatedly in the context of a long discussion. I do think that Losman's numbers from Sunday are particularly abysmal considering the opponent (one of the very worst passing defenses in the League) and the situation (coming off a bye after several bad performances, and playing at home.) Sure he has had some bad games(in regards to the numbers), but so too has most QBs in the league. Overall, his numbers are comparable to a majority of his peers. This is where I completely disagree - and it is a classic tactic of Losman's defenders, to simply define a single category of "bad", and not look deeper at the situation. I do not think he is playing as well as a majority of his peers.....but his numbers (for the most of it) do not reflect this. YPA is a better indicator of a QB than YPG. BTW, it is 3 games of 115 & under not 105. Its three games of *meaningful* yards under 105. JP Losman managed to get to 115 against to Chicago only thanks to 26 yards on a completely garbage-time drive against the backups at the end of the 4th quarter. Even with the standard of 115 yards, those numbers are *still* below those of many of the examples you provided. I don't think that you can sum up a QB in any one number. I think you need to look at a portfolio. Sure, YPA is better than YPG in some respects - on the other hand, YPG also takes into account failure to complete passes on 3rd downs, and thus generate additional passing attempts by sustaining drives. QB rating, as I mentioned above, is a completely arbitrary combination of several factors. Again, I prefer to look at a portfolio of performance in judging a QB, and not just try and turn a player into a single number.... Vick....6 games of 163 & underPlummer 3 games of 138 & under McNair 4 games of 165 to 143 yards Pennington 2 games of 108 & under Smith 3 of 135 & under Carr 1 full game of 128 Frye 3 of 149 to 132 yards 831228[/snapback] In my mind, Vick is a complete asterisk.... if you look at the offense Atlanta is running, Vick is playing a position that is essentially unique within the NFL. If Losman is going to run for 70 yards a game, I'll hold him to a different standard too. Additionally, if we are just going to talk numbers, I think that you have adequately demonstrated that 130 or 150 yards for a QB in a game is eminently reasonable. Less than 100 yards is not reasonable. In 17 career starts, Losman has been under 115 yards passing on six occasions. That is at a level worse than any of the QB's that you mentioned. Just on a numbers basis, the only real cases you have here, in my mind, are Alex Smith and Pennington. And with Pennington, I think that the whole NFL is seeing the difference between a really good coach like Herman Edwards, and a not so good coach. Until this year, Pennington had been one of the most accurate and effective QB's in the League, and the new regime there in New York is trying to get him to play a throw-it-around style of offense for which he is unsuited. I'm sure that not having Curtis Martin hurts a little bit too, but I'm also suspicious of what that coaching staff is doing.... And in any event, Chad Pennington has *done* it in the NFL (cf. 41-0 vs. Peyton Manning in the playoffs.) A large part of passing yards is admittedly determined by how you want to play. There's definitely cases where say you have a good defense and running game, or when your opponent is offensive incompetent (i.e. the Oakland Raiders), where teams will take the attitude that so long as they don't throw interceptions, they don't think they can lose, and so play very conservatively. I don't think that we have that here in Buffalo. The one exception is that we did come out to play that way in Miami - but since then, for whatever reason, the coaches have gotten away from that. Since then, they have taken the handcuffs off the offense, gotten away from the WR swing passes and screens, and JP Losman has not been up to the challenge. Plain and simple, it doesn't take numbers to see that JP Losman was abysmal against Green Bay last week. We simply were not able to generate anything in the way of offense, and were it not for a Brett Favre implosion on offense to the tune of four turnovers, and a ridiculous defensive breakdown in a 2nd and 20 situation, the Bills in all likelihood would have lost that game. JP Losman wasn't capable of winning that game against a competent team on Sunday, even if he at least didn't blow it. But when you combine JP Losman's performance against Green Bay with his non-existant showing against Chicago, his ineffectual showings against New England and the NY Jets at home, and I think you get plenty of reason to be concerned..... and plenty of reason to think that if Losman doesn't get better than this by the end of the season, that we made to take a long hard look at our options after the season. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 10, 2006 Share Posted November 10, 2006 quote]Yes, QB Rating is a combination of a variety of numbers......JDG 831378[/snapback] His numbers were not good against GB last week....totally agree(apart from his turnover numbers). I was simply responding to your statement that his numbers are abysmal for a 3rd year player. If you mean in an individual game then I say "hang on, the best Qbs have abysmal individual games"....you meant for the season & I believe...all things considered his actual numbers this season(overall) are not abysmal....they are in fact in the 'average' bracket. His play leaves a lot to be desired but I'm afraid you cannot use the stats to back the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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