IDBillzFan Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Unfortunately people on this board aren't going to be happy unless they are miserable.825869[/snapback] And that's the !@#$ing truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePebble19 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Rewind your tivo and look at the pass to Robert Royal for a first down after the dude had just had a false start penalty on the first drive. JP did exactly that and sidestepped the rush. But whatever helps you make your point. On one of the ensuing plays we subsequently lost our number one weapon on offense and you're acting like it's no big deal, like things should have just continued to work magically. 826594[/snapback] One play does not a game make...All day long it was 5 steps and stand, 7 steps and stand...I will retract my NEVER for RARELY, since there was obviously a play or two I missed. And things did continue as normal. A-train did no worse than Willis would have done...in fact, I thought he ran harder out there than I see willis do. But, that kind of things happen when you are a backup trying to get a job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 One play does not a game make...All day long it was 5 steps and stand, 7 steps and stand...I will retract my NEVER for RARELY, since there was obviously a play or two I missed. And things did continue as normal. A-train did no worse than Willis would have done...in fact, I thought he ran harder out there than I see willis do. But, that kind of things happen when you are a backup trying to get a job 826877[/snapback] I think it took awhile for AT to get on track. I also think that penalties consistently hold these guys back just when they look like they are doing something. You look at plays like the one JP got to Evans earlier on on a third and long. Both knew how to make something happen there, they had just been in too deep a hole from a first and 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePebble19 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 I think it took awhile for AT to get on track. I also think that penalties consistently hold these guys back just when they look like they are doing something. You look at plays like the one JP got to Evans earlier on on a third and long. Both knew how to make something happen there, they had just been in too deep a hole from a first and 20. 826991[/snapback] I will agree with that...This team takes some stupid penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Wait Pebble, you wanted JP to step up in the pocket and throw away the ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 From 2001 - 2005, these are the QBs who were taken in the first four picks of the draft: 2001: Michael Vick 2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington 2003: Carson Palmer 2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers 2005: Alex Smith From 2001 - 2005, these are the offensive linemen taken in the first four picks of the draft: 2001: Leonard Davis 2002: Mike Williams 2003: none 2004: Robert Gallery 2005: none No, I'm not saying that first round offensive linemen in general work out as poorly as the guys on the above list. But there may be more risk to a high OL pick than you might realize; without the same high reward a star QB would bring. Unless Losman starts playing better than he did today, the Bills might be better served taking a QB early in the first, and going OL in the 2nd and 3rd. 826314[/snapback] You remind me(yet again) that I want to study past drafts relating OL to SB wins but..... There is no way I'd use 2005 picks as examples here(waaaay too early)...probably wouldn't be using 2004 either. I'd definitely go back at least another 5 years....& not that it makes any difference, I'd use top 5 since that seems to be a standard. QBs 1996: none 1997: none 1998: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf 1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith 2000: none 2001: Michael Vick 2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington 2003: Carson Palmer OL 1996: Jonathan Ogden 1997: Orlando Pace 1998: none 1999: none 2000: Chris Samuels 2001: Leonard Davis 2002: Mike Williams 2003: none Looks a little tighter when you compare over a decent period of time. 4 in 9 QBs(44%)....3 in 5 OL(60%).....not that I disagree that there is waaay too many misses for the supposed 'sure thing' of a top 5 pick. Interestingly.....There are two superbowl winners amongst the OL picks.....and 1 superbowl loser amongst the QB picks....& the QBs picked outnumber the OLs picked 9 to 5. Hmmmm....I really want to study those stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePebble19 Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Wait Pebble, you wanted JP to step up in the pocket and throw away the ball? 827778[/snapback] No. If JP steps up in the pocket, he can buy a little more time to either throw the football to an open reciever, or take off and run. If he is just dropping back and standing, he hurting himself, because when the rush comes off the outside, he is right there and is getting slammed. If he steps up and uses his legs a little bit, he could make a few more plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Interestingly.....There are two superbowl winners amongst the OL picks.....and 1 superbowl loser amongst the QB picks....& the QBs picked outnumber the OLs picked 9 to 5. Hmmmm....I really want to study those stats. 827836[/snapback] An excellent post, though I wouldn't read too much into the QB/OL Super Bowl comparison. Suppose you had nine dice, rolled them, and one of them came up with a six. Then you gathered five dice, rolled them, and two came up with a six. Can you really conclude that the second group of dice is weighted to give you sixes more often than the first group? If you're going to win the Super Bowl, it really helps to have a Hall of Fame-style QB--or at least someone close. Yeah, the Ravens did it without a very good QB, but they had one of the three best defenses in NFL history, good special teams, a solid offensive line anchored by Jonathan Ogden, and a Jamal Lewis-style running game. If you have that as your supporting cast, you don't need Joe Montana as your QB to win the Super Bowl. But if your supporting cast is less good, you do need a Joe Montana or at least a Tom Brady. One possible source for a Pro Bowl-style QB is early in the draft. But no matter how you do it, it will be really, really tough to win a Super Bowl unless you have a real QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 ....If you're going to win the Super Bowl, it really helps to have a Hall of Fame-style QB--or at least someone close....828878[/snapback] I totally agree, however I've changed my opinion over the last year on how you get your HOF style QB. If you look at the HOF style QBs in the league at the moments you have....& this is opinion based obviously....I'm ignoring the young guys like Brees & Palmer since they show potential but...... Brady, Favre, Manning, McNabb. Any others? Brady & Favre were 6th & 2nd rounders respectively while Manning & McNabb were both top 3. Just on a quick scan of names etc, it is apparent that virtually all the HOF style OTs were drafted in the first round whereas only half of the HOF style QBs were drafted there(give or take). Your dice analogy works fine since I have not looked at OL draftees long term to know any different....what I do know is that if 1st round QBs were a roll of your hypothetical dice, they hit sixes a lot less than most expect. I feel like I'm pimping this link since I've done it multiple times recently but.....well, I did the research & it is quite enlightening. Here is a link to the success rates of QBs over 17 years. LINK Basically #1 overall is a good(?) 56% chance of success. #2-5 are 38% the rest of the first round is 15% Honestly, I have gone right off drafting a QB in the first round unless he is going to be one of the 'can't miss' types that could go at #1.....and even then it becomes a flip of a coin for him to succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 No. If JP steps up in the pocket, he can buy a little more time to either throw the football to an open reciever, or take off and run. If he is just dropping back and standing, he hurting himself, because when the rush comes off the outside, he is right there and is getting slammed. If he steps up and uses his legs a little bit, he could make a few more plays. I've been clamoring for a dominating center because there usually IS no pocket to step up into. And throwing it away while in the pocket leads to intentional grounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Basically #1 overall is a good(?) 56% chance of success.#2-5 are 38% the rest of the first round is 15% A reasonable post, and there was good information in the post you linked to. However, you can't just consider those percentages in a vacuum. Let's say you're deciding between taking a QB and an DT with a pick between 2 - 5. Based on what's happened in the past, you're guessing the QB has a 38% chance of succeeding. That seems low, but maybe the success rate for defensive linemen is equally bad. Even if it wasn't, a 38% chance of getting the next Peyton Manning could be considered better than a 45% chance of getting the next Sam Adams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 OH YEA.... your granny must have an impressive arm and be tough as balls....Losman took a huge hit as he was releasing that ball.... it was great throw.... 825684[/snapback] The run will open up the pass, it all starts with the O-line wich did improve. A Ball control ground attack is the only way to beat the Colts. Keep it simple for Losman so he can mature with the O-line and we might make 500 Kid's got an arm and he's smart. He just needs some confidence in the O-line and himself. We need to be patient and give him time to do that. The kid can Play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Let JP move around, dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 The run will open up the pass I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here. If you're trying to say that the running game needs to get better to take pressure off the passing game, I'd completely disagree. Teams are already ganging up to stop the run. It's time for a more effective passing game to open up the ground game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 A reasonable post, and there was good information in the post you linked to. However, you can't just consider those percentages in a vacuum. Let's say you're deciding between taking a QB and an DT with a pick between 2 - 5. Based on what's happened in the past, you're guessing the QB has a 38% chance of succeeding. That seems low, but maybe the success rate for defensive linemen is equally bad. Even if it wasn't, a 38% chance of getting the next Peyton Manning could be considered better than a 45% chance of getting the next Sam Adams. 828978[/snapback] Very true....& I plan....when I have time....to look at all possitions similarly(or a bit different depending on how I feel at the time). My guess would be(& I figure from all your past posts about the mental side being so important to QBs that you'll agree), that the success rates for most other possitions will be probably higher than that of QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here. If you're trying to say that the running game needs to get better to take pressure off the passing game, I'd completely disagree. Teams are already ganging up to stop the run. It's time for a more effective passing game to open up the ground game. 829027[/snapback] Thats your opinion, I don't see teams ganging up tp stop the run. They don't have to because we haven't been getting sufficient blocking from the O-line and penetration has been to easy. In the packers game they showed improvement. The run game stated opening up and it lead to a big play down the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Brady & Favre were 6th & 2nd rounders respectively while Manning & McNabb were both top 3. Just on a quick scan of names etc, it is apparent that virtually all the HOF style OTs were drafted in the first round whereas only half of the HOF style QBs were drafted there(give or take). 828948[/snapback] One observation though....If you are going to pick a QB in the top 5, he better be from a BIG school with a pro-style offense. The guys coming out of those schools have a better chance to succeed than guys from the smaller schools.... IMHO, I think Palmer, Leinart, Manning(s) etc are going to be good to great QBs in the NFL and their background is big football schools... I am not saying that there are NO QBs picked in the top 5 who is not from a big school, but I think they are more likely to succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 One observation though....If you are going to pick a QB in the top 5, he better be from a BIG school with a pro-style offense. The guys coming out of those schools have a better chance to succeed than guys from the smaller schools.... IMHO, I think Palmer, Leinart, Manning(s) etc are going to be good to great QBs in the NFL and their background is big football schools... I am not saying that there are NO QBs picked in the top 5 who is not from a big school, but I think they are more likely to succeed. 830065[/snapback] Ah....well there is my problem. Being from Australia I have no idea about which are the BIG schools etc. I guess I could have taken more interest in the college game but up until now could not see the point(clever me). Maybe you(or anyone) could help me here.....If I put a list of players names below could you(or someone) respond with whether they are from a BIG school(naming school) or not? Vinny Testaverde Troy Aikman Jeff George Drew Bledsoe Peyton Manning Tim Couch Michael Vick David Carr Carson Palmer Rick Mirer Heath Shuler Steve McNair Kerry Collins Ryan Leaf Donovan McNabb Akili Smith Joey Harrington I know it's a bit of effort.....but it will help you(assumingly) prove your point. That would be super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 Aaah...I am not sure if you are being sarcastic or not.... Vinny Testaverde Univ. of Miami B Troy Aikman UCLA B Jeff George Univ. Illinois B Drew Bledsoe Washington State B Peyton Manning Univ of Tenneessee B Tim Couch Univ of Kentucky Michael Vick Virginia Tech B David Carr Fresno State Carson Palmer USC B Rick Mirer Notre Dame B Heath Shuler Tennessee B Steve McNair Alcorn State Kerry Collins Penn State B Ryan Leaf Washington State B Donovan McNabb Syracuse B Akili Smith Oregon 1 year College Exp Joey Harrington Oregon I know it's a bit of effort.....but it will help you(assumingly) prove your point. That would be super. 830152[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 Aaah...I am not sure if you are being sarcastic or not.... 830164[/snapback] I wasn't being sarcastic at all.....thanks for the info. If I now highlight the 'successes' on the list.....we find that out of the 12 BIG school QBs drafted in the top 5 in the years 1987-2003, 6 succeeded...or 50%. Out of the 5 non-BIG school QBs only 1 succeeded....or 20%. I think this information backs up your theory quite soundly that QBs drafted high from BIG schools have a better chance of succeeding in the NFL than non-BiG schools. If you can be bothered.....could you(or anyone) give me a list of the BIG schools.....since I'm now adopting your theory I'd like know more about it. Thanks. Vinny Testaverde Univ. of Miami B Troy Aikman UCLA B Jeff George Univ. Illinois B Drew Bledsoe Washington State B Peyton Manning Univ of Tenneessee B Tim Couch Univ of Kentucky Michael Vick Virginia Tech B David Carr Fresno State Carson Palmer USC B Rick Mirer Notre Dame B Heath Shuler Tennessee B Steve McNair Alcorn State Kerry Collins Penn State B Ryan Leaf Washington State B Donovan McNabb Syracuse B Akili Smith Oregon 1 year College Exp Joey Harrington Oregon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts