Albany,n.y. Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 Look at what we've done since we had the team of Kelly & Reich and a logical conclusion is that our scouts at both the college and pro level are not getting the job done when it comes to evaluating QBs. Here are the guys someone has recommended over the recent years. 1995: Spend a 2nd on Todd Collins 1997: Spend a 3rd on Billy Joe Hobert 1998: Spend a 1 & 4 on Rob Johnson Got lucky that A.J. Smith pushed so hard for Flutie. Plus we had Ryan Leaf rated above Peyton Manning-I base this on conversations that John Butler had with the media where he was on record as saying if he had the #1 pick, it would be Leaf. 2002: Spent a 2003 1st on Drew Bledsoe. This was after Detroit "saved" us from picking Joey Harrington with the pick we busted on Mike Williams with. 2004: Spent a 1st on J.P. Losman (giving up 3 picks in order to get that 1st-a 2, 5 and the following year's 1) 2005: Spent $ to bring in Kelly Holcomb 2006: Spent $ to bring in Craig Nall This is too many wasted $ & draft choices. At 1st glance it appears that someone is looking too much at arm strength without regards to the intangibles that are needed to succeed at the QB position. For years under the direction of Ron Wolf, Green Bay was almost a QB factory. In recent years the Packers have had Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Ty Detmer, and Mark Brunell all in the same camp and drafted Matt Hasselbeck in the 6th round. It's either our scouts or the directions they are given when evaluating QBs. We have to find a new way of rating QBs, because whatever methods are being used at One Bills Drive are not working. It doesn't seem to matter if it's Butler, Donahoe or so far, Marv.
RuntheDamnBall Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 It's not any one thing. It can't be. If it were, it would have been corrected by now. The other difficulty is there have been appearances that things were corrected that really weren't, which makes things far more difficult. These include Drew's fine first-half performance in '02, the drafting of Mike Williams, new systems installed, new OL coaches hired, the benching of JP for Holcomb, etc. All of these were thought to be solutions (several of them exercised repeatedly), and none proved to be. It can't all be on any one department or person. On the contrary, it takes all cylinders firing and all keys turned at the same time, plus a little luck to get the right guy in the right system with the right personnel. The odds are against things working out, or at the very best they are even. If it were easier, well, it'd be obvious.
eSJayDee Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 I don't think our problem is w/ scouting in this area, but rather w/ coaching & possibly in some instances that we paid too much for the players. Specifically: Clod : He started for us w/ mediocre results on a mediocre team. The fact that he has managed to stick in the league to 10+ yrs is indicative that he's at least decent. BJ (we all know what that stands for) : Mistake. Plain & simple. RJ : The guys got the talent. Problem is a combination that he can't "get it together" & he can't/couldn't stay healthy. A very dear price to pay for a largely unproven unknown. Bledsoe : At the time, he had been playing for ~10yrs & had been VERY prolific. He might not have been the QB he once was (a combination of the game changing & his diminishing skills), but given an adequate supporting cast, he was an adequate QB. I consider a 1st round pick a reasonable price to pay for a starting caliber QB especially when our other alternatives were much worse. JP : Again, the guy appears to have the talent. It remains to be seen if he can get it together. However, we paid a dear price for the right to select him, especially considering the bust rate of 1st round QBs. Holcomb : What's wrong w/ him? We signed him for free & I suspect his salary is quite reasonable. By my estimation, he's a top notch BACKUP QB. Nall : Again, we got him for free. Reasonable salary. Who knows how good he is; he's inexperienced, is in a new system (for him), new team, & he was hurt for much of preseason. Actually WRT wasting $, I'd say our worst moves were extending Bledsoe rather than jettisoning him at the time and also having RJ & Dutie making obscene $ at the same time. (I won't argue that extending RJ basically b4 he had played a down for us was prudent.)
jahnyc Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 I agree, and on a more basic level, our talent evaluators are below average at identifiying free agent acquisitions. Bennie Anderson, Vincent, Posey and Gandy have not worked out well, and there are questions about Fowler, Reyes, Triplett, and P. Price. The bottom line is that the Bills have done a poor job of replacing talented player swho have departed (i.e., Pat Williams).
Pyrite Gal Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 Rather than lay all or even a lot of this at the door step of the scouts, I think that the strong smell associated with our QB choices is like a dead fish, rottinh starts at the top and the guys in charge from Ralph the owner on through Butler snd onto TD get the lionshare of the blame for the QB debacles. Certainly the the inner workings of the scouts are part of the issue as there is a bit of garbafe in equals garbage out which is initiated often with bad info from the guys on the frontline. However, we are talking about: 1. Multi-miillion $ decisions where the ultimate decision maker is the guy who signs the checks or the guy he out incharge to organized things and blame does not get very far from Ralph, Butler or TD in this equation. 2. Also key QB decisions were clearly made by the guys in charge such as the handshake agreement between Ralph and Jimbo that are the beginning of the QB issues. Only Ralph has the ability to trade on his personal word and sure the advice he got from the director of pro personel at the time was a major factor for him. but this deal was ultimately his and he blew it big time judging Jimbo was gonna be able to play long enough that he couild sign a new deal with him and he was flat out wrong. This foolish assessment that Jimbo was gonna last longer than he did was the error which triggered a situation where the Bills in hindsignt over-reached drafting TC in the 2nd, rush him to start before the happy-feet got trained out of him as best as could be done, etc. It also is quite clear that it was a publicly stated observation (order) by RWS that he was so impressed by RJ leaduing the beating of a Colts team that had given up which saw RJ get the start in the HomeRun Throw-Up game. Looking to the scouts as the main or even a leading cause of our QB woes misses a whole bunch. 3. Even if one wants to blame the scouts for this debacle, the buck stops with the guy in charge for a reason and the question is not merely whether the scouts are bad, but if you want to insist this is the case, then the question quickly becomes who hired and managed such bad scouts. The QB disasters are RWS, Butler's, abd TD fault if you want to look for someone to blame.
Albany,n.y. Posted October 30, 2006 Author Posted October 30, 2006 I have to admit as I was typing my post, I had to think the problem might just be Ralph, I didn't put it in, but i definitely thought about it.
Tortured Soul Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 2005: Spent $ to bring in Kelly Holcomb2006: Spent $ to bring in Craig Nall 820539[/snapback] Did you want them to play for free? Obviously, I'm not going to argue that our QB's have been a rousing success, but you can't point to the one find (Flutie) and call it luck without calling the other ones bad luck. Unless of course you want to call the one QB Belichick ever found luck, too. Over the couse of the three general managers and five head coaches, there's no one factor to look for, and, unfortunately, no one factor to change.
Albany,n.y. Posted October 30, 2006 Author Posted October 30, 2006 Did you want them to play for free? Obviously, I'm not going to argue that our QB's have been a rousing success, but you can't point to the one find (Flutie) and call it luck without calling the other ones bad luck. Unless of course you want to call the one QB Belichick ever found luck, too. Over the couse of the three general managers and five head coaches, there's no one factor to look for, and, unfortunately, no one factor to change. 820564[/snapback] I didn't say getting Flutie was luck, I said we were lucky that A.J. Smith pushed so hard for him. Unfortunately, we were unlucky that Ralph decided to go to Donahoe instead of promoting A.J. Smith. As it turned out, we had a pretty good GM in the making in A.J. & we let him get away.
DeLuca1967 Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 Could it be as simple as there aren't enough good QB's for 32 teams.
Arkady Renko Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 I didn't say getting Flutie was luck, I said we were lucky that A.J. Smith pushed so hard for him. Unfortunately, we were unlucky that Ralph decided to go to Donahoe instead of promoting A.J. Smith. As it turned out, we had a pretty good GM in the making in A.J. & we let him get away. 820568[/snapback] You can't really criticize him for that as most thought hiring Donahoe was a no-brainer at the time. And AJ Smith is a bit of an !@#$ or so I hear.
Albany,n.y. Posted October 30, 2006 Author Posted October 30, 2006 You can't really criticize him for that as most thought hiring Donahoe was a no-brainer at the time. And AJ Smith is a bit of an !@#$ or so I hear. 820570[/snapback] I've actually met A.J. & he seemed to be a pretty good guy to me. Of course the context was a little different than the NFL-his son attended St. Francis, where one of my closest friends teaches & that's where I met A.J. Smith. When my friend suffered a mild heart attack a few years ago, he got an envelope with the San Diego Chargers as the return address. A.J. Smith took the time to send him get well wishes from San Diego. So I don't think A.J. is an !@#$.
Arkady Renko Posted October 30, 2006 Posted October 30, 2006 I've actually met A.J. & he seemed to be a pretty good guy to me. Of course the context was a little different than the NFL-his son attended St. Francis, where one of my closest friends teaches & that's where I met A.J. Smith. When my friend suffered a mild heart attack a few years ago, he got an envelope with the San Diego Chargers as the return address. A.J. Smith took the time to send him get well wishes from San Diego. So I don't think A.J. is an !@#$. 820578[/snapback] I only meant in the work context. It just seems weird that he and Marty S. don't even speak to each other. Granted, that might more be Marty's fault but I don't know.
MDH Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 Look at what we've done since we had the team of Kelly & Reich and a logical conclusion is that our scouts at both the college and pro level are not getting the job done when it comes to evaluating QBs. Here are the guys someone has recommended over the recent years. 1995: Spend a 2nd on Todd Collins 1997: Spend a 3rd on Billy Joe Hobert 1998: Spend a 1 & 4 on Rob Johnson Got lucky that A.J. Smith pushed so hard for Flutie. Plus we had Ryan Leaf rated above Peyton Manning-I base this on conversations that John Butler had with the media where he was on record as saying if he had the #1 pick, it would be Leaf. 2002: Spent a 2003 1st on Drew Bledsoe. This was after Detroit "saved" us from picking Joey Harrington with the pick we busted on Mike Williams with. 2004: Spent a 1st on J.P. Losman (giving up 3 picks in order to get that 1st-a 2, 5 and the following year's 1) 2005: Spent $ to bring in Kelly Holcomb 2006: Spent $ to bring in Craig Nall 820539[/snapback] What do all these QBs have in common? The OL for each has sucked. Fix the OL and you go a long way towards fixing the QB play. Don't get me wrong, none of these guys are world-beaters but you'd be amazed at how a good OL can make an average/below average QB look serviceable. Nah, let’s draft a 1st round QB next year instead!
DCBongo Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 Could it be as simple as there aren't enough good QB's for 32 teams. 820569[/snapback] That does play a part in it, but the scouts have struck out for too mnay years in a row. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Dibs Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 That does play a part in it, but the scouts have struck out for too mnay years in a row. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 820633[/snapback] We really have not done any worse on average than the league at drafting QBs. Since 95 we have drafted... 2nd Collins 1st JPL We have added in FA.... Hobert-3rd pick Johnson-1st & 4th Bledsoe(Probowl)-1st Flutie(probowl)-free Holcombe-free Nall-free The average success in drafting QBs is very low....only 20% in the first 3 rounds if you do not draft #1(overall). QB drafting success percentages IMO it is not that we have drafted poorly....we hardly draft QBs period.....It is also not that we waste too many draft picks on FAs....we have had two probowlers that way.....the problem is that we have waisted our picks on old QBs when the team is rebuilding &......we do not spend nearly enough picks on the lower rounds in selecting QBs. Drafting QBs is really just lucky dip.....we simply do not dip into the barrel enough times.
apuszczalowski Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 What about other teams? Buffalo is not the only team that has had trouble drafting/sigining answers at QB What about Dallas? They haven't had an answer since Aikmen left What about Miami? Still searching for Marinos replacement What about Denver? They haven't had an impressive QB since Elway It took Cinci how many years to find Boomers replacement? San Francisco? They haven't had a good QB since Young and Montana How long did Pittsburgh have inadequate QB's before they found Big Ben Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, Clevland, Baltimore, Washington, have all had trouble finding a decent starting QB that they can stick with for more then a couple seasons, or can lead their team. The point is, its not just Buffalo that has had trouble finding their own Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Dante Culpepper As for the comment of Detroit saving us from getting Harrington, I would rather have suffered through "the Joey Harrington era" for 10 years then had to have suffered through having Mike Williams on the Bills for 1 year
obie_wan Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 What do all these QBs have in common? The OL for each has sucked. Fix the OL and you go a long way towards fixing the QB play. Don't get me wrong, none of these guys are world-beaters but you'd be amazed at how a good OL can make an average/below average QB look serviceable. Nah, let’s draft a 1st round QB next year instead! 820631[/snapback] Damon Huard is looking pretty good in KC
ganesh Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 I didn't say getting Flutie was luck, I said we were lucky that A.J. Smith pushed so hard for him. Unfortunately, we were unlucky that Ralph decided to go to Donahoe instead of promoting A.J. Smith. As it turned out, we had a pretty good GM in the making in A.J. & we let him get away. 820568[/snapback] If I remember, A.J Smith wanted to leave along with Butler. He wanted no part of the RW organization.
ganesh Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 What do all these QBs have in common? The OL for each has sucked. Fix the OL and you go a long way towards fixing the QB play. Don't get me wrong, none of these guys are world-beaters but you'd be amazed at how a good OL can make an average/below average QB look serviceable. Nah, let’s draft a 1st round QB next year instead! 820631[/snapback] Agreed...If at all the Scouts had to be blamed for something, it is for their inability to find good OL to build this team.
cale Posted October 31, 2006 Posted October 31, 2006 Agreed...If at all the Scouts had to be blamed for something, it is for their inability to find good OL to build this team. 821216[/snapback] I will say this though - I don't think John Guy has done diddly squat since being here. I long for the days of DwighT Adams. Charles
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