Drafting a QB is.....

[ganesh]

Not sure what the infatuation is with Schaub. This guy has Scott Mitchell written all over him...

820381[/snapback]

 

I just picked the best from the available FA/RFA QBs...not that it is a plum picking....May be Schaub is more of a Jake Delhome than a Scott Mitchell.

[ganesh]

If I were to trade for a QB already in the NFL, I'd trade for Garrard. He has proven he can win this league (with a great defense behind him I might add)

 

But I don't think it will happen. It seems Jauron is determined to give Losman ample time to sink or swimm.

820429[/snapback]

 

Thank god Jauron understands that it takes time for a QB to become a good passer in the NFL....

 

Garrard will not be going anywhere from Jacksonville.

[Fixxxer]

Thank god Jauron understands that it takes time for a QB to become a good passer in the NFL....

 

Garrard will not be going anywhere from Jacksonville.

820435[/snapback]

 

It's the rational thing to do, if you start overeacting (TD era) things go south fast. If it's not Losman it will be Nall or a draftee (late one IMO)

 

If I'm Del Rio I'm not trading him either. It will be interesting so see how things develop in Jaxs-land.

[Tortured Soul]

Thank god Jauron understands that it takes time for a QB to become a good passer in the NFL....

 

Garrard will not be going anywhere from Jacksonville.

820435[/snapback]

Garrard just signed a new deal with huge escalators if he starts, meaning one of them won't be in Jax teal next season.

[ans4e64]

Good post, nice research.

[Dibs]

Really cool job, I don't suppose you work as a statistician?

820090[/snapback]

No.....but I wouldn't mind if I did.

Adding onto the stats thing......

If we remove the certain successes(56%) of the #1s from the first round we end up with......

6 hits out of 28....21% success rate.

Therefore once you go past the #1 overall pick in the draft, you have pretty much the same chance to draft a successful QB in the 3rd round as you do in the 1st.

 

Even more disturbing is if we look at the first round without the TOP 5 you end up with.....

3 hits out of 20....15% success rate.

Basically if you are not choosing your QB in the TOP 5 of the draft you have actually more chance of finding your QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds(according to the 17 years of history studied).....hell, at those percentages, I'd take a QB on the second day of the draft each year & spend my first day picks on the lines.

[Bflojohn]

The one thing that I dwell on is that most of these guys went to poor teams, and in some cases, those teams were perrenially BAD! The formula has to be a rebuilding of the franchise(s) in the trenches, then maybe the QB has a fighting chance at success. In J.P.'s case, is anyone ready to say that he is failing with a quality team around him? Give it time people, Rome wasn't built in a day!

[PatPatPatSack]

All this shows is that QBs drafted high in the 1st round, while not guaranteed to be a success, are more likely to be successful than those taken later in the draft.

820155[/snapback]

 

upwards of 3 times more likely. Another way to say that might be this:

 

Pick your QB early. Since you would need to select 3 times to get the same likely hood of picking once. And since you get to spend 2-3 years finding out what you got, you might go on average 10 years between good QB picks.

 

My thought is that unlike any other position - especially a RB for instance, a QB takes the most time of any position to find out what you got. And since you only get one position , and that spot takes such nurturing, you should always spend your first top pick on a QB if you need or will need one.

 

thoughts?

[Dibs]

upwards of 3 times more likely. Another way to say that might be this:

 

Pick your QB early. Since you would need to select 3 times to get the same likely hood of picking once. And since you get to spend 2-3 years finding out what you got, you might go on average 10 years between good QB picks.

 

My thought is that unlike any other position - especially a RB for instance, a QB takes the most time of any position to find out what you got. And since you only get one position , and that spot takes such nurturing, you should always spend your first top pick on a QB if you need or will need one.

thoughts?

821776[/snapback]

Only....and I emphasise only if you have a top 5 pick. As the numbers show, only 3 hits out of 20 (15%) for picks 6-32 in 17 years. Perhaps there is a higher failure rate amongst non top 5 1st rounders than 2nd & 3rd rounders due to the added pressure & rushing them to start but the numbers clearly show that you may as well wait till the 3rd round to grab your QB....unless you are picking in the top 5.

 

At 38% success, I don't know whether I'd like to risk my #2-5 pick on a QB either.

A small trade down from there will grab you at least a high 2nd rounder to take your QB(20% success) & leave you with a higher percent success chance impact draft pick of another position.

 

Honestly, if you list off the non-1st rounder picks in the league, it make you wonder why anyone would risk such a high pick with such a small chance of success when the later rounds produce just as many great QBs at a much lower cost & only slightly lower percentage success chance.

 

Favre(2nd), Brady(6th), Brees(2nd), Hasselbeck(6th), Bulger(6th), Brunnell(5th), Griese(3rd), Huard(3rd), Plummer(2nd)

[JDG]

Some people around here are certain that JP will be a failure.  This determination is leading to speculation about next years draft....in particular the QBs in it.

I have spent some time analysing the drafts from 1987-2003 in regards to the QBs selected & the relative success of the selections.

You will quickly see that even if we draft very high in the draft there is more chance of whoever we draft failing outright & even if they succeed, it will be several years before we see a result.

Successes are in BOLD

The number in brackets is the number of years it took for the QB to reach the probowl.

 

THE #1s

5 hits out of 9....56% success rate.

Vinny Testaverde

Troy Aikman(3)

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe(2)

Peyton Manning(2)

Tim Couch

Michael Vick(2)

David Carr

Carson Palmer(2)

 

TOP 5

8 hits out of 17….47% success rate.

(picks 2-5=3 out of 8....38%)

#2 Rick Mirer

#3 Heath Shuler

#3 Steve McNair(9)

#5 Kerry Collins(2)

#2 Ryan Leaf

#2 Donovan McNabb(2)

#3 Akili Smith

#3 Joey Harrington

 

TOP 10

8 hits out of 22….36% success rate.

(picks 6-10=0 out of 5....00%)

#6 Kelly Stouffer

#7 Andre Ware

#6 David Klingler

#6 Trent Dilfer

#7 Byron Leftwich(???)

 

TOP 20

10 hits out of 28….36% success rate.

(picks 11-20=2 out of 6....33%)

#13 Chris Miller

#16 Dan McGuire

#11 Daunte Culpepper(2)

#12 Cade McNown

#18 Chad Pennington(-)

#19 Kyle Boller

 

1st ROUND TOTAL

11 hits out of 37….30% success rate.

(picks 21- =1 out of 9....11%)

#26 Jim Harbaugh

#? Steve Walsh

#? Timm Rosenbach

#24 Todd Marinovich

#25 Tommy Maddox

#? Dave Brown

#26 Jim Druckenmiller

#32 Patrick Ramsey

#22 Rex Grossman(-)

 

2nd ROUND TOTAL

3 hits out of 15….20% success rate.

 

3rd ROUND TOTAL

4 hits out of 20….20% success rate.

 

4th ROUND TOTAL

3 hits out of 33….9% success rate.

 

5th ROUND TOTAL

1 hits out of 13….8% success rate.

 

6th ROUND TOTAL

4 hits out of 30….13% success rate.

 

I didn't bother with 7th onwards but....Brad Johnson(superbowl ring), Elvis Grbac, Trent Green & Kurt Warner(superbowl ring) spring to mind.

 

Anyone who thinks drafting a QB high in the first is a guarantee of us vastly improving....or improving in the short term is not looking at the history of drafting QBs clearly.

820086[/snapback]

 

And from this, I have no doubt that a large proportion of TSW posters will still be absolutely convinced that the Bills would be much better off spending this year's first round draft pick on a Guard than on a Quarterback....

 

JDG

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Some people around here are certain that JP will be a failure.  This determination is leading to speculation about next years draft....in particular the QBs in it.

I have spent some time analysing the drafts from 1987-2003 in regards to the QBs selected & the relative success of the selections.

You will quickly see that even if we draft very high in the draft there is more chance of whoever we draft failing outright & even if they succeed, it will be several years before we see a result.

Successes are in BOLD

The number in brackets is the number of years it took for the QB to reach the probowl.

 

THE #1s

5 hits out of 9....56% success rate.

Vinny Testaverde

Troy Aikman(3)

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe(2)

Peyton Manning(2)

Tim Couch

Michael Vick(2)

David Carr

Carson Palmer(2)

 

TOP 5

8 hits out of 17….47% success rate.

(picks 2-5=3 out of 8....38%)

#2 Rick Mirer

#3 Heath Shuler

#3 Steve McNair(9)

#5 Kerry Collins(2)

#2 Ryan Leaf

#2 Donovan McNabb(2)

#3 Akili Smith

#3 Joey Harrington

 

TOP 10

8 hits out of 22….36% success rate.

(picks 6-10=0 out of 5....00%)

#6 Kelly Stouffer

#7 Andre Ware

#6 David Klingler

#6 Trent Dilfer

#7 Byron Leftwich(???)

 

TOP 20

10 hits out of 28….36% success rate.

(picks 11-20=2 out of 6....33%)

#13 Chris Miller

#16 Dan McGuire

#11 Daunte Culpepper(2)

#12 Cade McNown

#18 Chad Pennington(-)

#19 Kyle Boller

 

1st ROUND TOTAL

11 hits out of 37….30% success rate.

(picks 21- =1 out of 9....11%)

#26 Jim Harbaugh

#? Steve Walsh

#? Timm Rosenbach

#24 Todd Marinovich

#25 Tommy Maddox

#? Dave Brown

#26 Jim Druckenmiller

#32 Patrick Ramsey

#22 Rex Grossman(-)

 

2nd ROUND TOTAL

3 hits out of 15….20% success rate.

 

3rd ROUND TOTAL

4 hits out of 20….20% success rate.

 

4th ROUND TOTAL

3 hits out of 33….9% success rate.

 

5th ROUND TOTAL

1 hits out of 13….8% success rate.

 

6th ROUND TOTAL

4 hits out of 30….13% success rate.

 

I didn't bother with 7th onwards but....Brad Johnson(superbowl ring), Elvis Grbac, Trent Green & Kurt Warner(superbowl ring) spring to mind.

 

Anyone who thinks drafting a QB high in the first is a guarantee of us vastly improving....or improving in the short term is not looking at the history of drafting QBs clearly.

820086[/snapback]

 

Wrong, sir! Wrong! Under section 37B of the contract signed by him, it states quite clearly that all offers shall become null and void if - and you can read it for yourself in this photostatic copy - "I, the undersigned, shall forfeit all rights, privileges, and licenses herein and herein contained," et cetera, et cetera..."Fax mentis incendium gloria cultum," et cetera, et cetera..."Memo bis punitor delicatum!" It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! He is a bad qb. He hasn't got touchdowns, which is bad, so we get nothing! You lose! Good day sir!

 

[Dibs]

Wrong, sir! Wrong!........He is a bad qb.  He hasn't got touchdowns, which is bad, so we get nothing!  You lose! Good day sir!

 

841055[/snapback]

Now I know you were being light hearted but.....

I never said he wasn't a bad QB.

The post is to show the hit/miss chances when drafting a QB based on recent history.....not to show that JP is(or isn't) making any sort of arbitrary grade. If anything, it backs up statistically that JP has very little chance of 'making the grade'.

Edited November 19, 2006 by Dibs

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

I never said he wasn't a bad QB.

The post is to show the hit/miss chances when drafting a QB based on recent history.....not to show that JP is(or isn't) making any sort of arbitrary grade.  If anything, it backs up statistically that JP has very little chance of 'making the grade'.

841067[/snapback]

 

I know.

[PatPatPatSack]

Only....and I emphasise only if you have a top 5 pick.  As the numbers show, only 3 hits out of 20 (15%) for picks 6-32 in 17 years.  Perhaps there is a higher failure rate amongst non top 5 1st rounders than 2nd & 3rd rounders due to the added pressure & rushing them to start but the numbers clearly show that you may as well wait till the 3rd round to grab your QB....unless you are picking in the top 5.

 

At 38% success, I don't know whether I'd like to risk my #2-5 pick on a QB either.

A small trade down from there will grab you at least a high 2nd rounder to take your QB(20% success) & leave you with a higher percent success chance impact draft pick of another position.

 

Honestly, if you list off the non-1st rounder picks in the league, it make you wonder why anyone would risk such a high pick with such a small chance of success when the later rounds produce just as many great QBs at a much lower cost & only slightly lower percentage success chance.

 

Favre(2nd), Brady(6th), Brees(2nd), Hasselbeck(6th), Bulger(6th), Brunnell(5th), Griese(3rd), Huard(3rd), Plummer(2nd)

821792[/snapback]

 

but to continue the thought, for example, what is the percentage "right" for a 6th round pick? compare a 38% success rate to a 8% success rate (I'm guessing). that is huge. Because you only get to carry 3 QB's. So you can't pick 6 QB's and hope for the best. Besides you only get 1 6th rounder. Perhaps, the success rate of say a linebacker at 6th round is 40%, why waste that pick on a 8% QB.

 

Lastly, you put the same resources into a 6th rounder as you put in a second rounder - well close to the same. So you are already limited as to what resources you HAVE to put into your QB.

 

My point in summary. If you are picking a QB in the 6th round to be your guy, your starter, then you are so unlikely to be successful that you might as well NOT. Now maybe we should also do this for free agent qbs?

[Dibs]

.......My point in summary. If you are picking a QB in the 6th round to be your guy, your starter, then you are so unlikely to be successful that you might as well NOT. Now maybe we should also do this for free agent qbs?

841080[/snapback]

I guess the objective is to not rely on any rookie QB to be your guy since (apart from top 5) they are all unlikely to succeed.....perhaps drafting a non-1st rounder every 2 years until you see something you like....ala Brady, Bulger, Romo, Hasslebeck etc, etc, etc. is the way to go.

It seems to me also that the success of teams forced to use their late round draft picks as rookies due to injury to the starters do not seem any worse affected than most teams going with rookie 1st round picks.....i.e....Orton(Bears) last year, Gradkowski(Bucs) this year....both not doing good but relatively similar to Leinart this year or Smith(49ers) last year.