Dibs Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Some people around here are certain that JP will be a failure. This determination is leading to speculation about next years draft....in particular the QBs in it. I have spent some time analysing the drafts from 1987-2003 in regards to the QBs selected & the relative success of the selections. You will quickly see that even if we draft very high in the draft there is more chance of whoever we draft failing outright & even if they succeed, it will be several years before we see a result. Successes are in BOLD The number in brackets is the number of years it took for the QB to reach the probowl. THE #1s 5 hits out of 9....56% success rate. Vinny Testaverde Troy Aikman(3) Jeff George Drew Bledsoe(2) Peyton Manning(2) Tim Couch Michael Vick(2) David Carr Carson Palmer(2) TOP 5 8 hits out of 17….47% success rate. (picks 2-5=3 out of 8....38%) #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair(9) #5 Kerry Collins(2) #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb(2) #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10 8 hits out of 22….36% success rate. (picks 6-10=0 out of 5....00%) #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich(???) TOP 20 10 hits out of 28….36% success rate. (picks 11-20=2 out of 6....33%) #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper(2) #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington(-) #19 Kyle Boller 1st ROUND TOTAL 11 hits out of 37….30% success rate. (picks 21- =1 out of 9....11%) #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman(-) 2nd ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 15….20% success rate. 3rd ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 20….20% success rate. 4th ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 33….9% success rate. 5th ROUND TOTAL 1 hits out of 13….8% success rate. 6th ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 30….13% success rate. I didn't bother with 7th onwards but....Brad Johnson(superbowl ring), Elvis Grbac, Trent Green & Kurt Warner(superbowl ring) spring to mind. Anyone who thinks drafting a QB high in the first is a guarantee of us vastly improving....or improving in the short term is not looking at the history of drafting QBs clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoondckCL Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Some people around here are certain that JP will be a failure. This determination is leading to speculation about next years draft....in particular the QBs in it.I have spent some time analysing the drafts from 1987-2003 in regards to the QBs selected & the relative success of the selections. You will quickly see that even if we draft very high in the draft there is more chance of whoever we draft failing outright & even if they succeed, it will be several years before we see a result. Successes are in BOLD The number in brackets is the number of years it took for the QB to reach the probowl. THE #1s 5 hits out of 9....56% success rate. Vinny Testaverde Troy Aikman(3) Jeff George Drew Bledsoe(2) Peyton Manning(2) Tim Couch Michael Vick(2) David Carr Carson Palmer(2) TOP 5 8 hits out of 17….47% success rate. (picks 2-5=3 out of 8....38%) #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair(9) #5 Kerry Collins(2) #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb(2) #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10 8 hits out of 22….36% success rate. (picks 6-10=0 out of 5....00%) #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich(???) TOP 20 10 hits out of 28….36% success rate. (picks 11-20=2 out of 6....33%) #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper(2) #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington(-) #19 Kyle Boller 1st ROUND TOTAL 11 hits out of 37….30% success rate. (picks 21- =1 out of 9....11%) #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman(-) 2nd ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 15….20% success rate. 3rd ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 20….20% success rate. 4th ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 33….9% success rate. 5th ROUND TOTAL 1 hits out of 13….8% success rate. 6th ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 30….13% success rate. I didn't bother with 7th onwards but....Brad Johnson(superbowl ring), Elvis Grbac, Trent Green & Kurt Warner(superbowl ring) spring to mind. Anyone who thinks drafting a QB high in the first is a guarantee of us vastly improving....or improving in the short term is not looking at the history of drafting QBs clearly. 820086[/snapback] Damn Dibs, how long did this take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 Damn Dibs, how long did this take? 820087[/snapback] Well....it is a bye week.....& I've got the day off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swift Sylvan Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Well....it is a bye week.....& I've got the day off work. 820088[/snapback] Really cool job, I don't suppose you work as a statistician? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Nice post. It's a bit disheartening to see that JP falls into the bucket that succeeds at an 11% rate. Basically, if there are reasons that keep a QB from being drafted in the top half of a draft, those reasons are extremely likely to catch up to him in the pros and cause him to fail. If JP sucks, it's because he SHOULD suck. Not his fault, really -- it was the Bills' fault, the Bills' stupidity for drafting him in the first place, especially without a good team in place so he can develop properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 This seems to point out that college grades in sports, like in academics, aren't reliable predictors of success in the real world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWings Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Good post - thanks for the info. I really think this shows that drafting a QB is as much of a crapshoot as anything. You really need the front office to be smart enough to get the right guy (see: Bill Polian drafting Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf) that fits in with the right type of coaching staff and fellow players. This is why the odds of a drafted QB being successful go down the more you think about all of the factors involved. So, the Bills should draft Jake Long from Michigan....now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Where is Worlessburger on that list? He was a first round pick who lead his team to a SB victory in his second year and lead his team to a 15-1 record in his rookie year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraps Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Some people around here are certain that JP will be a failure. This determination is leading to speculation about next years draft....in particular the QBs in it.I have spent some time analysing the drafts from 1987-2003 in regards to the QBs selected & the relative success of the selections. You will quickly see that even if we draft very high in the draft there is more chance of whoever we draft failing outright & even if they succeed, it will be several years before we see a result. Successes are in BOLD The number in brackets is the number of years it took for the QB to reach the probowl. THE #1s 5 hits out of 9....56% success rate. Vinny Testaverde Troy Aikman(3) Jeff George Drew Bledsoe(2) Peyton Manning(2) Tim Couch Michael Vick(2) David Carr Carson Palmer(2) TOP 5 8 hits out of 17….47% success rate. (picks 2-5=3 out of 8....38%) #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair(9) #5 Kerry Collins(2) #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb(2) #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10 8 hits out of 22….36% success rate. (picks 6-10=0 out of 5....00%) #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich(???) TOP 20 10 hits out of 28….36% success rate. (picks 11-20=2 out of 6....33%) #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper(2) #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington(-) #19 Kyle Boller 1st ROUND TOTAL 11 hits out of 37….30% success rate. (picks 21- =1 out of 9....11%) #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman(-) 2nd ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 15….20% success rate. 3rd ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 20….20% success rate. 4th ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 33….9% success rate. 5th ROUND TOTAL 1 hits out of 13….8% success rate. 6th ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 30….13% success rate. I didn't bother with 7th onwards but....Brad Johnson(superbowl ring), Elvis Grbac, Trent Green & Kurt Warner(superbowl ring) spring to mind. Anyone who thinks drafting a QB high in the first is a guarantee of us vastly improving....or improving in the short term is not looking at the history of drafting QBs clearly. 820086[/snapback] All this shows is that QBs drafted high in the 1st round, while not guaranteed to be a success, are more likely to be successful than those taken later in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 If Losman fails and is not the starting QB next season, the Bills need to go and get Matt Schaub from the falcons and then draft a QB in the 3rd round to groom him. Going the Brady Quinn way would just put this franchise away from the playoffs in the near future.... I hope Losman can convince (by his playing) that he is the future of this franchise. That will let this team go and build its OL/DL and be coached to play smart football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 If Losman fails and is not the starting QB next season, the Bills need to go and get Matt Schaub from the falcons and then draft a QB in the 3rd round to groomhim. Going the Brady Quinn way would just put this franchise away from the playoffs in the near future.... I hope Losman can convince (by his playing) that he is the future of this franchise. That will let this team go and build its OL/DL and be coached to play smart football. 820346[/snapback] Schuab would be a RFA, no? If so, you are asking us to give up a 1st, perhaps more, and we already have traded away a 5th. We need to be gaining picks, not pi$$ing them away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a player to be named later Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 What about the offensive linemen varible? I wonder how much a success of a QB depends on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Schuab would be a RFA, no? If so, you are asking us to give up a 1st, perhaps more, and we already have traded away a 5th. We need to be gaining picks, not pi$$ing them away. 820354[/snapback] Bill...what did they spend that 5th round pick on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Bill...what did they spend that 5th round pick on? 820359[/snapback] Anthony Hargrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Anthony Hargrove. 820361[/snapback] Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 If Losman fails and is not the starting QB next season, the Bills need to go and get Matt Schaub from the falcons and then draft a QB in the 3rd round to groomhim. Going the Brady Quinn way would just put this franchise away from the playoffs in the near future.... I hope Losman can convince (by his playing) that he is the future of this franchise. That will let this team go and build its OL/DL and be coached to play smart football. 820346[/snapback] Not sure what the infatuation is with Schaub. This guy has Scott Mitchell written all over him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortured Soul Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Everything else aside, it would make me sick to give up a first and a third for a guy that we could've had with the 2nd rounder we traded away for Losman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Everything else aside, it would make me sick to give up a first and a third for a guy that we could've had with the 2nd rounder we traded away for Losman. 820388[/snapback] I hear ya TS. Almost as bad as coughing up a 1st (9th overall) and a 4th for Rob Johnson when we could have taken him in the 3rd (instead of Todd Collins in the 2nd). It has to stop at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fixxxer Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 If I were to trade for a QB already in the NFL, I'd trade for Garrard. He has proven he can win this league (with a great defense behind him I might add) But I don't think it will happen. It seems Jauron is determined to give Losman ample time to sink or swimm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Schuab would be a RFA, no? If so, you are asking us to give up a 1st, perhaps more, and we already have traded away a 5th. We need to be gaining picks, not pi$$ing them away. 820354[/snapback] I would rather give a 1st for Schaub then to get another rookie QB in the lineup. However, having said that, I wish the Bills will find enough in Losmans play to convince that he should be their starting QB and that young QBs need nurturing more often than not and then go and build a OL for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts