Dibs Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Whether 2006 was a good draft is still very much in question. We knew Whitner would be good (you would hope so, a top 10 safety), we knew Ko Simpson would be good (well, he's struggling a bit now, but he'll come around, I think)... the question marks were McCargo and Youboty. McCargo especially needs to come through as a first rounder. Kyle Williams has been a surprise but McCargo needs to be a difference maker and/or the backend of the draft (Pennington/Merz) have to surprise greatly for 2006 to be a good draft. Remember, this was a deep, talented draft with the Bills having a high pick in each round, and 10 overall to begin with. To only get 2 good safeties out of this draft would be a funking disaster. 817051[/snapback] How did we know a 4th rounder would be good & a 1st(McCargo) & 3rd(Youboty...who was projected 1st round) are questions? You have some mighty high expectations for what achieves a good draft. If you were to get 2 good players from each draft, in 10 years you'd have 20 good players....or basically an all-pro team all round. At this point it is looking to have the potential of an awesome draft. Pretty much.....2 good players....2 decent players(who should improve?).....2 very high potential players(who may become stars...or busts)......1 7th round starter(???).....& 2 others. Remembering that we have only played 7 games, this draft class is looking extraordinarily promising. 1)Whitner......very good 1)McCargo....who knows? Injured & DTs often(like most rooks) take a few years. 3)Youboty....who knows? Most feel he will become a solid starter though. 4)Simpson....good 5)Williams....started from day 1 & looks like a keeper 5)Butler....who knows? 6)Ellison...started 4 weeks & looked like he will be a solid backup(or better) 7)Pennington....we'll find out in the next few weeks or so but is starting! 7)Merz....who knows? BTW.....if we had taken Mangold......we wouldn't have taken McCargo. It's foolish to look at the players that panned out after your picks & say "we could have taken him"......it all becomes extremely easy in hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 How did we know a 4th rounder would be good & a 1st(McCargo) & 3rd(Youboty...who was projected 1st round) are questions? 818147[/snapback] True, I shouldn't say we when I mean I. I predicted immediately after the draft that Whitner and Simpson would be good players, McCargo would be an underachiever with injury problems, and Youboty would disappoint. I'm neither right nor wrong about those yet, of course... I'm just on track. You have some mighty high expectations for what achieves a good draft. If you were to get 2 good players from each draft, in 10 years you'd have 20 good players818147[/snapback] My expectations aren't high. I stand by them. With the number of picks the Bills began with, drafting in the positions they did, and considering the deep draft and the Bills' lack of quality linemen, if ALL they get out of this draft were two good safeties, the draft was a disaster. A disaster. They need line help out of this draft. I repeat: Either McCargo has to come through and be a difference maker since he was a first rounder, and/or the backend of the draft (Merz/Penny) has to surprise greatly (since usually backends of drafts get cut or become backups). Look, here's the deal. Look back at the entire draft in three years, and you're going to find that the majority of the teams will have gotten more value from the draft than just two good safeties. Hopefully the Bills are one of those teams. BTW.....if we had taken Mangold......we wouldn't have taken McCargo. 818147[/snapback] And I would be smiling. It's foolish to look at the players that panned out after your picks & say "we could have taken him" 818147[/snapback] Nowhere have I done that. In all the instances where I've said we could've taken this guy instead, I had predicted that guy to be good even before the draft, and people who follow the draft closely would know them well. I mean, Davin Joseph? Mangold? I mean, these were studs, and everybody knew it. it all becomes extremely easy in hindsight. 818147[/snapback] It was easy without hindsight, too, to know that Davin Joseph and Nick Mangold would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawgg Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 And that would have been the RIGHT thing to do. McCargo had the benefit of playing in a 3-4 defense. His defensive linemates? Mario Williams (the best end in the country last year) and Many Lawson (a stud who went before him to the 49ers). Mark my words, McCargo is no stud himself. Decent player? Yes. Starting material? Borderline. Mangold was a solid starter coming out of college and would have fit perfectly in an offensive line desperate for help. The bottom line is Levy banked on Tutan Reyes (who Carolina was happy to let walk) and we are paying for it now. BTW.....if we had taken Mangold......we wouldn't have taken McCargo. 818147[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 I think the thing to keep in mind is not to get caught up in numbers, as in we got 2 good players out of this draft so that's good, or X number of players are still on the roster, etc. What you have to look at is IMPACT. Let's say, hypothetically, Whitner and Simpson become All-pro players and the rest of our draft is crap. Let's also say that Jay Cutler becomes an All-pro and the rest of Denver's draft is crap. 2 > 1, so the Bills had a better draft, right? Uh, no. Under that scenario, Denver had a much better draft; most GMs would trade 10 pro bowl safeties for 1 pro bowl QB, as they should. Bottom line, football teams should be built inside out, and we need to get line help from this draft. McCargo really, really needs to pan out and not be a waste of salary cap. And if he doesn't pan out, then we gotta hope the backend of the draft surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 About NC State, the fourth guy on that vaunted defensive line was often Tank Tyler, who is probably going to be a first or second round pick this year. So yeah, McCargo was definitely surrounded by talented players. McCargo himself had a nice first step, though, and that's why he was drafted in round 1. But yeah, Mangold was the much safer pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 It was easy without hindsight, too, to know that Davin Joseph and Nick Mangold would be good. 818230[/snapback] My Mangold comment wasn't directed at you....sorry, I should have seperate posted. You pretty much ignored Williams & Ellison in your draft analysis....I stand by my comments of this draft is looking to be 'A' grade at this point & that your view of what should be reasonably achieved by a draft is waaaay skewed. In ref. above....If you are so knowledgeable and obviously astute in your talent assessments, why don't you try & work in the industry? Hang on a second.....aren't you the same Ozymandius that not only predicted that Winston Justice was worth a top pick but also GUARENTEED everyone that we would pick N'Gata? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 You pretty much ignored Williams & Ellison in your draft analysis.... 818265[/snapback] What draft analysis? If you thought I was trying to analyze the Bills draft pick by pick when this board had already gone through that months ago, then you're a really bad reader. My original post in this thread was just saying that the jury is still out on this draft (i.e. don't call it a good draft yet). For some reason you have a problem with that? Then the rest of my posts just dealt with hypotheticals in order to convey my idea of getting value from a draft. I stand by my comments of this draft is looking to be 'A' grade at this point & that your view of what should be reasonably achieved by a draft is waaaay skewed. 818265[/snapback] You're welcome to think that, and I stand by everything I've said as well. Drafts have to be analyzed in the context of team needs and how to properly build a team which ties into value gained. If you are so knowledgeable and obviously astute in your talent assessments, why don't you try & work in the industry? 818265[/snapback] Yawn. I thought you were a good poster, Dibs, and then I see this trite try at an insult. Look, there are plenty of folks who watch college football religiously and have opinions on players. I just happen to be one of them. I get some right, I get some wrong, but it's part of how I have fun being a fan. So don't be a dick just because I have opinions. I must be doing something right, though, since you immediately put "very good" by Whitner's name and "good" by Simpson's just because I complimented them, as if my word were God's. Or is that your own opinion? Wait, you're not allowed to have one since you're not paid to evaluate football players (as if it were rocket science). Hang on a second.....aren't you the same Ozymandius that not only predicted that Winston Justice was worth a top pick but also GUARENTEED everyone that we would pick N'Gata? 818265[/snapback] LOL. Do you have pictures of me outside my window as well? Honestly, I remember being high on Justice and thinking the Bills would draft Ngata after they brought him in for a workout, but I'm pretty sure you're either exaggerating or taking things out of context. If I guaranteed it, was it a joke? Also, when do I like to take showers? Since you obviously have all my comments memorized better than me, please try to recite the ones I got right as well. I know when the Bills traded up into the first, I called McCargo. I remember saying Whitner and Simpson were going to be good players and I was concerned about McCargo's injury history. Dude, you scare me. Leave me alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 .....LOL. Do you have pictures of me outside my window as well?.....818279[/snapback] Yep...& I'm selling them for $3 a pop..... Sorry about the attack before.....for some reason I thought you were "Mr. I know these things", but upon re-reading your post I realize that you were nothing of the sort. Does a public apology curb your annoyance with the unwarranted insults......or do I start posting the photos up on the net? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Yep...& I'm selling them for $3 a pop..... Sorry about the attack before.....for some reason I thought you were "Mr. I know these things", but upon re-reading your post I realize that you were nothing of the sort. Does a public apology curb your annoyance with the unwarranted insults......or do I start posting the photos up on the net? 818283[/snapback] No need to apologize, bro, and I do think you're a good poster. Very good, actually. I'm not really scared or insulted by your posts. I do find it strange that you were able to recall comments I made months ago, but it's probably because you have a good memory and I have a poor one. Thousands of opinions get flung around these boards during draft time, and I can't remember one opinion from anyone other than Bill in NYC wants offensive linemen (but I think we ALL know that, and we love him, and we hope he gets his wish one day). As for Mr. "I Know These Things", I do admit I'm SORTA like that. I'm a dick, I know that. I have strong opinions about things. I do think someone who watches (and gambles) (succesfully) on college football can have a meaningful opinion on how good players are. I never say I'm infallible and I freely admit I get lots of stuff wrong, though. But I do try to back up my opinions with observations or stats or something, and I don't think people should be like "oh why don't you get a job as a scout." I mean, why would I want to be a scout. They get paid sh--. At any rate, no hard feelings. And I would destroy the pictures because you'd probably get sued or jailed for showing them to anyone :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 I think the thing to keep in mind is not to get caught up in numbers, as in we got 2 good players out of this draft so that's good, or X number of players are still on the roster, etc. What you have to look at is IMPACT. Let's say, hypothetically, Whitner and Simpson become All-pro players and the rest of our draft is crap. Let's also say that Jay Cutler becomes an All-pro and the rest of Denver's draft is crap. 2 > 1, so the Bills had a better draft, right? Uh, no. Under that scenario, Denver had a much better draft; most GMs would trade 10 pro bowl safeties for 1 pro bowl QB, as they should. Bottom line, football teams should be built inside out, and we need to get line help from this draft. McCargo really, really needs to pan out and not be a waste of salary cap. And if he doesn't pan out, then we gotta hope the backend of the draft surprises. 818243[/snapback] Although I don't think that the QB scenario applies to the Bills, I couldn't agree more with the theme of your post. You see, I think that TD went with players such as Parrish, Losman, Evans, and even to an extent MaGahee to sell tickets. I hate this strategy, but it isn't hard to grasp. Otoh, what Levy did in the 06 draft was so stupid, it led me to actually wonder whether or not he had all of his wits. Teams are not built by using up your most precious resources on dbs, nor (with VERY rare exceptions) do they sell tickets. He did all of this and gave away a pick. Imo, this draft was marked by stupidity, if not senility. Honestly, I hope that Marv resigns before the 07 draft before he forgets the mess of 06 and starts trading up for corners. Great post Oz Man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Although I don't think that the QB scenario applies to the Bills, I couldn't agree more with the theme of your post. You see, I think that TD went with players such as Parrish, Losman, Evans, and even to an extent MaGahee to sell tickets. I hate this strategy, but it isn't hard to grasp. Otoh, what Levy did in the 06 draft was so stupid, it led me to actually wonder whether or not he had all of his wits. Teams are not built by using up your most precious resources on dbs, nor (with VERY rare exceptions) do they sell tickets. He did all of this and gave away a pick. Imo, this draft was marked by stupidity, if not senility. Honestly, I hope that Marv resigns before the 07 draft before he forgets the mess of 06 and starts trading up for corners. Great post Oz Man! 818354[/snapback] Aaaah Bill.....I have no problem with your concepts of drafting.....just your dogmatic insistence that it is the only way to go & that if not followed exactly(i.e. 1 1st round pick on the lines is not good enough), the people are idiots & incompetent. Is there ever anything in life where there is only one way of achieving something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 I seriously thought when we moved back into the first round it was to pick Mangold. 816919[/snapback] I thought so to. Also, I think the success rate of line men picked in late 1st round and in the 2nd round is quite high, since they don't have the same pressure to perform as the top 5 pick like a Mike Williams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitnerIsAGod Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 They could have moved DOWN and selected him, and a basket load of other players with the extra picks. 816889[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 The D will step it up. Watch them improve toward the end of the season. It'll take a bit more than 7 games for the rooks (and the vets) to acclimate to the new defense. 817039[/snapback] Agreeed....especially we have played two tough teams in Chicago and the Patriots in the last 3 weeks. The defense needs to really toughen up against the run....I think they did a pretty good job against the Patriots after the 1st qtr meltdown. They need to continue playing good against the Run. Once the Rookies understand the game better, the secondary will play better. Right now I am more concerned about our LBs play than anything else. THey are neither able to help in run support nor stop TEs from making big plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitnerIsAGod Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 I thought so to. Also, I think the success rate of line men picked in late 1st round and in the 2nd round is quite high, since they don't have the same pressure to perform as the top 5 pick like a Mike Williams. 818446[/snapback] Do you really think Mike Williams only defect is external pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Do you really think Mike Williams only defect is external pressure? 818453[/snapback] No....Not really....I just said that picks made in the lower first round and in the 2nd rounds don't come with the pressure of having to succeed off the bat compared to a top five pick like MW.....I did not say MWs failure was ONLY due to external pressure.... The top 10 picks are scrutinized by the media and fans much more than the guys that come at the bottom of the round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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