No matter what you think the future holds for JP

[RuntheDamnBall]

His actual Comp last season....49.6%(entire year)

This season 61.9% (+12.3%)

Big Improvement.

 

.....and in terms of yardage.....

His first 8 starts last season......150.4ypg

His 7 starts this season.......187.7ypg

Improvement.

 

.....and in terms of QBR......

Last season.....64.9

This season.....78.9

Big improvement.

817490[/snapback]

Don't buy the hype. This team is being held back by JP, and we're just one QB -- with no NFL downs played and a world of promise -- away from the Super Bowl.

[Orton's Arm]

That's because the person who originally cited those statistics (incorrectly) omitted the statistics that would hurt his/her argument.

 

The missing statistics:

 

'05 134 Att 68 Comp 50.7% *(5 Games Cited Above)

'06 197 Att 122 Comp 61.9 % (+23.47%)

 

That's progress.

817441[/snapback]

And, you, sir, have omitted a very important statistic that would hurt your argument.

 

'05* 134 Att 904 yards 6.8 yards per attempt * 5 games cited above

'06 197 Att 1312 yards 6.7 yards per attempt

 

Yes, his completion percentage is higher, but he's not getting more yards per attempt. To me this shows that the playcalling has shifted towards shorter, safer, higher percentage passes, thereby increasing Losman's completion percentage and passer rating. But the stable yards per attempt stat suggests he's not doing a more effective job moving the offense down the field than he did in those 4.5 games last season.

 

Does that pass the eyeball test? Well, the Losman we've gotten this year--and in particular the Losman we've gotten the last few weeks--sure doesn't look a whole lot more effective than the Losman who played those five games last year.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

The problem has been 3 straight bad games after a promising start.

 

Last 3 games, 171 ypg, 3 TD's, 5 INT's, 5 fumbles, 63 rating.

 

He is heading in the wrong direction. His play has been worse on the field then it has been on paper also, that is the most important thing.

 

Another thing, he is not making any positive critical plays for us. This isnt a talent evaluation, we are evaluating him as a QB, and so far he has failed.

 

After a full year of starts, 3 years of mental learning, we still have a huge question mark with him.

[Dibs]

And, you, sir, have omitted a very important statistic that would hurt your argument.

 

'05* 134 Att 904 yards 6.8 yards per attempt * 5 games cited above

'06 197 Att 1312 yards 6.7 yards per attempt

 

Yes, his completion percentage is higher, but he's not getting more yards per attempt. To me this shows that the playcalling has shifted towards shorter, safer, higher percentage passes, thereby increasing Losman's completion percentage and passer rating. But the stable yards per attempt stat suggests he's not doing a more effective job moving the offense down the field than he did in those 4.5 games last season.

 

Does that pass the eyeball test? Well, the Losman we've gotten this year--and in particular the Losman we've gotten the last few weeks--sure doesn't look a whole lot more effective than the Losman who played those five games last year.

817519[/snapback]

JPL 1st 4 starts....

94att-433yds.....4.6ypa

 

JPL 2nd 4 starts

118att-770yds....6.5ypa

 

Combined.....8 games

212att-1203.....5.7ypa

 

This season...7 games

197att-1313.....6.7ypa

[Wraith]

And, you, sir, have omitted a very important statistic that would hurt your argument.

 

'05* 134 Att 904 yards 6.8 yards per attempt * 5 games cited above

'06 197 Att 1312 yards 6.7 yards per attempt

 

Yes, his completion percentage is higher, but he's not getting more yards per attempt. To me this shows that the playcalling has shifted towards shorter, safer, higher percentage passes, thereby increasing Losman's completion percentage and passer rating. But the stable yards per attempt stat suggests he's not doing a more effective job moving the offense down the field than he did in those 4.5 games last season.

 

Does that pass the eyeball test? Well, the Losman we've gotten this year--and in particular the Losman we've gotten the last few weeks--sure doesn't look a whole lot more effective than the Losman who played those five games last year.

817519[/snapback]

 

Where did I omit that information? I gave attempts, completions, yards, and TDs in my posts. You want me to calculate out every ratio for you? The statistic you cite was available from the information I presented.

 

You also have an interesting leap of logic in your second paragraph. How exactly does an increase in completion percentage coupled with a level ouput in yardage mean he's NOT more effective at moving the offense down the field? Those two statistics coupled together mean his yards per completion has dropped off, that is correct. That does not necessarily mean he is completing fewer long plays. It may also mean he is completing more short passes. The statistic you presented is at worst, inconclusive, and at best, supportive of my argument rather than yours. You need to complete passes to sustain drives.

[coltrane34]

What really scares me is that he continues to fumble the football.  Another Warren Moon on our hands?  Except maybe the HOF credentials.

816735[/snapback]

 

 

Isn't Warren Moon in the hall of fame?

[bluv]

I agree with you JP has progressed.  I don't know why people are talking about anything else in this thread.  It's pretty much a yes (I agree) or no (I disagree) question.

817418[/snapback]

My sentiments exactly. Known JP haters, like Holcomb's Arm want to find any little stat to support their claim of why JP is no good. Whoever said that he was a top flier QB on a contending team? I mean I can see if he where Vick and the highest paid QB in the league and been in for 6 years and still struggling getting the ball down the field or if he was an offseason free agent QB pickup like Culpepper and was expected to come in lighting the field up on a team with all the pieces supposedly in place. Anybody who open their eyes long enough can see that the kid has improved dramatically over last year. I mean just look at his feet; he is not rushed as much as last year. And for those overly concerned with stats since he has been one of the most sacked QB's I wondered if the stats I pulled up are net passing yards? All that can be said is that while he AND the running game has struggled the past 3 games against 3 of the better defensive teams in the league (some will callit digressing), he overall has improved as a passer. He is not where he should be and has parts of his game he needs to improve on. Who knows; he may never get better but he is definitely better than where he came and playing better than some winning starters on other teams. For example some will say McNair bought his team back in 2 close games and JP could never do that. Well if our D played like the Ravens; getting turnovers and putting our team in better position to score and had held 5 teams under 14 points we'd be 5 and 2.

 

I'll end by saying any team that gives up on a 1st rd QB they moved up to get after 16 starts who has one of the strongest arms in the league, can make every throw and is one of the top 3 mobile QB's in the league and is steadily improving is just a stupid organization and any impatient fan who wants to give up on a young Qb as such after 16 starts on a team that is going no where and never was expected to is also stupid.

[apuszczalowski]

'05* 134 Att 904 yards 6.8 yards per attempt * 5 games cited above

'06 197 Att 1312 yards 6.7 yards per attempt

817519[/snapback]

You are going to argue over .1 yards per attempt?????????

[RayFinkle]

You are going to argue over .1 yards per attempt?????????  

817570[/snapback]

He was highlighting that there was no improvement. He wasn't pointing out there was a decrease. If you quote somebody, you should at least read the post.

 

Now if you'll excuse me while I go wash me hands, I feel dirty after defending Holcomb's Arm.

[obie_wan]

I wonder if Brady Quinn is the new way of the future.....hmmm...   He will be if Jp continues to play like this.  I don't know if this is true or not but it seems like Jp fumbles 2 or more times a game.

817487[/snapback]

 

highly doubtful Marv will go with the green QB option again.

 

If they wanted a raw QB, they would have taken Cutler and cut JP loose.

 

IF JP is not the answer, look for a recycled vet.

 

Patrick Ramsey would be a likely option.

[drg2021]

He freezes up, can't make a quick decision it seems to me...Can't hold onto the football (even when it's just a referee making contact)

 

I'm pretty tired of "waiting" for Losman to look like a real QB. Maybe someday.

817244[/snapback]

Bottem line is he doesnt win ball games weather hes "progressed"or Regressed.Time to find his replacement for next season,

[Orton's Arm]

It may also mean he is completing more short passes. The statistic you presented is at worst, inconclusive, and at best, supportive of my argument rather than yours. You need to complete passes to sustain drives.

But the Bills haven't been sustaining drives. I saw a statistic about the percentage of third downs that actually get converted when a team chooses to pass. Guess which team was at the very bottom of the list?

 

The problem I have with completion percentage is that you can game the system. If it's 3rd and 10, throw a 5 yard pass. That'll help your completion percentage and passer rating, but it won't do much to help the team.

 

Ultimately, a QB's job is to help the offense score points. To figure out how many points Losman was helping the offense score, I started with the raw number of points per game the Bills scored. Then I did the following:

- Weeded out points scored by the defense and special teams

- Weeded out points scored by the offense when Losman contributed less than ten yards

- Deducted three points from any scoring drive that started in field goal range

 

After making these adjustments, Losman helped the offense score 12.2 points per game in his second stint of 2005. This year, and again making these adjustments, he's helped the offense score 11.1 points per game. So yes, he's playing better than his first stint of 2005, but I don't see too many meaningful measures which would say he's playing better than his second stint. Not points per game, not yards per attempt, not TD/INT ratio, and not the eyeball test.

[Ramius]

Bottem line is he doesnt win ball games weather hes "progressed"or Regressed.Time to find his replacement for next season,

817629[/snapback]

 

bored during the bye week, craig?

[ganesh]

OF 13 games 8 have been under 200 yards passing.  To me that spells trouble. Why not start one of the others until any possibility of playoffs are gone and then let JP back in to get his "practice".  Sorry but starting to loose hope that JP is gona work out.

817408[/snapback]

Wouldn't we be in the same state as end of last season...We won't know much

about him and then again spend the next season doing the same thing....

 

You got to let Losman play the season and at the end of the season decide if

we need to keep him or go a different route....

 

If you are starting to lose hope on JP, then you shouldn't be wanting to get him back on the field after we are done with the "playoff possibility".

[bluv]

After making these adjustments, Losman helped the offense score 12.2 points per game in his second stint of 2005. This year, and again making these adjustments, he's helped the offense score 11.1 points per game. So yes, he's playing better than his first stint of 2005, but I don't see too many meaningful measures which would say he's playing better than his second stint. Not points per game, not yards per attempt, not TD/INT ratio, and not the eyeball test.

817793[/snapback]

That's why it's a TEAM game. The topic was not whether the Bills OFFENSE had improved it was that JP had improved from last year. And another thing is that this is a new offensive system (whatever Fairchild calls this mess) and the team has to get a feel as well. And you bring up points and TD/INT ratio. His INT's aren't the big issue as he normally doesn't throw many picks. His biggest issue has been lack of TD passes which again correlates with offensive success. Everyone knows that he and the offense has to be more productive and must improve. But ou can't ignore that he has improved over last year. If we were 5-2 with his exact numbers then JP wouldn't be an issue.

[Wraith]

But the Bills haven't been sustaining drives. I saw a statistic about the percentage of third downs that actually get converted when a team chooses to pass. Guess which team was at the very bottom of the list?

817793[/snapback]

 

But drives are not sustained solely on third down. In fact, third down performance is largely a function of first and second down performance.

 

An interesting metric is percentage of first downs responsible for. Currently the Bills have 100 total first downs from plays (with 9 coming from penalties), with 39 coming from run plays and 61 through the air. That means that Losman's passing performance is accounting for 61.0% of the offenses first downs.

 

That compares favorably with the league:

 

J.Losman 61/100 61.0%

Brady 71/118 60.1%

Grossman 68/103 66.0%

P.Manning 90/136 66.2%

E.Manning 78/129 60.5%

Palmer 70/100 70.0%

McNabb 92/135 68.1%

Rivers 70/118 59.3%

 

The Bills problem, and Losman's problem, has not been sustaining drives as you assert. It's scoring points. The Bills, and Losman, have been fairly succesful in between the 20s. Where both Losman and the Bills in general have suffered is in the red zone. But the blame does not lay solely with Losman, as Willis McGahee is averaging 1.53 yds/carry (43 yards on 28 carries) in the red zone and has 1 TD. Hell, Losman has 77.7% of the Bills TDs on offense (7/9) and McGahee has 11.1% (1/9).

[Orton's Arm]

The Bills, and Losman, have been fairly succesful in between the 20s.

Do you have numbers with which to back up this statement?

 

As for the numbers you provided, they could show one of three things: Losman's doing an above-average job of creating first downs, McGahee & company are doing a below average job, or the Bills are disproportionately likely to pass in 2nd and 2 or 3rd and 2 type situations.

[Wraith]

Do you have numbers with which to back up this statement?

 

As for the numbers you provided, they could show one of three things: Losman's doing an above-average job of creating first downs, McGahee & company are doing a below average job, or the Bills are disproportionately likely to pass in 2nd and 2 or 3rd and 2 type situations.

817852[/snapback]

 

Of course.

 

99/162 61.1% 1131 yds 6.98 yds/comp 5 int

 

Also, the Bills have only attempted to pass 10 times in 7 games with less than two yards to go.

[stuckincincy]

A big arm and speedy legs and youth are nice overall, but a creaky old qb and a sneaky greybeard wr come in handy, in the red zone.

[syhuang]

Ultimately, a QB's job is to help the offense score points. To figure out how many points Losman was helping the offense score, I started with the raw number of points per game the Bills scored. Then I did the following:

- Weeded out points scored by the defense and special teams

- Weeded out points scored by the offense when Losman contributed less than ten yards

- Deducted three points from any scoring drive that started in field goal range

 

After making these adjustments, Losman helped the offense score 12.2 points per game in his second stint of 2005. This year, and again making these adjustments, he's helped the offense score 11.1 points per game.

817793[/snapback]

Wow, you just make up your own rules so the "converted" numbers can support you argument. Why do you discount the scoring drives when Losman contributed less than 10 yards? why not 15 yards or 20 yards? Why don't you give him partial credits instead?

 

I know one of the main reasons. It is because there're three scoring drives during his second stint last seaon, he only contribued 11 yards, 12 yards, and 17 yards. If you use 15 yards or 20 yards as threshold, you can not make his last season's number better.

 

On the other hand, in 2006, Losman only has one scoring drive he contributes between 10 and 20 yards.

 

 

If you use 15 yards, the numbers will become

 

2005(second stint): 9.4

2006: 10.1

 

 

If you use 20 yards, the numbers will be

 

2005(second stint): 8.6

2006: 10.1

 

Oh, no, now the numbers are not good to badmouth JP anymore.

 

 

You basically manipulate the numbers by creating your own rules. You just set the threshold so the results can support your argument.