The Drew Brees Comparison

[Reddy Freddy]

Drew Brees' stats from his third year in the league (second season as a starter):

 

11 Games, 57% completion, 2108 yds, 5.92 ypa, 11 TDs, 15 INTs, 67.5 rating

 

In my opinion, JP's numbers stack up pretty favorably to Brees', and Brees had started all 16 games the year before. If memory serves, the surrounding casts were pretty comparable in talent.

 

It's also worth noting that Brees was much more polished and experienced coming out of college; JP was very raw.

 

In no way am I saying we should expect a huge, Pro-Bowl type breakout season next year from JP, but it's reasonable to say that it takes some QBs longer than others. In fact, 10 years ago it was generally understood that it took QBs three years of starting before you could expect strong play.

 

I just don't understand why JP gets such a short leash, after just 15 starts in his NFL career. The only explanation I can come up with is that it is due to the immediate success of some of his peers (Roethlisberger, Eli, now Rivers, etc). But I still think these guys are the exception rather than the rule.

 

Anyway, my 2 cents as I lick my wounds from A.P.D. (Another Patriots Drubbing).

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Maybe cause Drew Brees was a 2nd rd draft pick who the chargers acquired picks to take, where as Losman was taken after trading a 2nd,5th, and following years 1st rd draft choice? I'm willing to give losman time, and he should at least get the rest of the year, his fumbling and locking on to receivers are hard habbits for qb's to break.

[stuckincincy]

Drew Brees' stats from his third year in the league (second season as a starter):

 

11 Games, 57% completion, 2108 yds, 5.92 ypa, 11 TDs, 15 INTs, 67.5 rating

 

In my opinion, JP's numbers stack up pretty favorably to Brees', and Brees had started all 16 games the year before.  If memory serves, the surrounding casts were pretty comparable in talent.   

 

It's also worth noting that Brees was much more polished and experienced coming out of college; JP was very raw. 

 

In no way am I saying we should expect a huge, Pro-Bowl type breakout season next year from JP, but it's reasonable to say that it takes some QBs longer than others.  In fact, 10 years ago it was generally understood that it took QBs three years of starting before you could expect strong play. 

 

I just don't understand why JP gets such a short leash, after just 15 starts in his NFL career.  The only explanation I can come up with is that it is due to the immediate success of some of his peers (Roethlisberger, Eli, now Rivers, etc).  But I still think these guys are the exception rather than the rule. 

 

Anyway, my 2 cents as I lick my wounds from A.P.D.  (Another Patriots Drubbing).

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Good post. We must stay the course this season.

[Kelly the Dog]

Maybe cause Drew Brees was a 2nd rd draft pick who the chargers acquired picks to take, where as Losman was taken after trading a 2nd,5th, and following years 1st rd draft choice?  I'm willing to give losman time, and he should at least get the rest of the year, his fumbling and locking on to receivers are hard habbits for qb's to break.

814622[/snapback]

No, Drew Brees was taken with the Chargers own pick, the first pick of the second round, so about 9-10 picks after Losman.

[JDG]

Drew Brees' stats from his third year in the league (second season as a starter):

 

11 Games, 57% completion, 2108 yds, 5.92 ypa, 11 TDs, 15 INTs, 67.5 rating

 

In my opinion, JP's numbers stack up pretty favorably to Brees', and Brees had started all 16 games the year before.  If memory serves, the surrounding casts were pretty comparable in talent.   

 

It's also worth noting that Brees was much more polished and experienced coming out of college; JP was very raw. 

 

In no way am I saying we should expect a huge, Pro-Bowl type breakout season next year from JP, but it's reasonable to say that it takes some QBs longer than others.  In fact, 10 years ago it was generally understood that it took QBs three years of starting before you could expect strong play. 

 

I just don't understand why JP gets such a short leash, after just 15 starts in his NFL career.  The only explanation I can come up with is that it is due to the immediate success of some of his peers (Roethlisberger, Eli, now Rivers, etc).  But I still think these guys are the exception rather than the rule. 

 

Anyway, my 2 cents as I lick my wounds from A.P.D.  (Another Patriots Drubbing).

814611[/snapback]

 

What did Drew Brees do the year before that?

 

What had he shown in that year compared to what Losman has shown so far?

 

JDG

[ajzepp]

 

I just don't understand why JP gets such a short leash, after just 15 starts in his NFL career. 

 

Who's to say he does? Jauron just said today that he has no plans to make a change at the QB position. Just because we all get up in arms about this player or that player doesn't mean the coaching staff agrees, you know? As of now, JP will be the starter for the next nine games.

[JimBob2232]

Brees is a prefect example of guys who just wake up one day and say "NOW I GET IT!" JP could be the same way, or he could be a bust. We dont know. I do know that I have seen flashes of brilliance in this kid. And if he ever "gets it" he can be VERY good.

[JDG]

In no way am I saying we should expect a huge, Pro-Bowl type breakout season next year from JP, but it's reasonable to say that it takes some QBs longer than others.  In fact, 10 years ago it was generally understood that it took QBs three years of starting before you could expect strong play. 

 

There's a difference between expecting strong play and expecting competent play. JP Losman, after starting out incompetent is at this point still just straddling the line between competent and incompetent. In my estimation, he's just far enough on the competent side of the line to merit the start against the Packers, but only just so.

 

 

I just don't understand why JP gets such a short leash, after just 15 starts in his NFL career.  The only explanation I can come up with is that it is due to the immediate success of some of his peers (Roethlisberger, Eli, now Rivers, etc).  But I still think these guys are the exception rather than the rule. 

814611[/snapback]

 

Add Leinart and Gostkowski to that group as well - a group that also includes guys like Palmer, Brees, Leftwich, and Grossman as QB's who have all shown more in their first 15 starts than Losman has.

 

Additionally, by the way, guys like Cade McNown, Akili Smith, and Heath Shuler were all essentially abandoned after about 15 starts. David Klingler only got a bit more than that as well. And that's even without mentioning Ryan Leaf and Jim Druckenmiller! Tommy Maddox was drafted in the first round and basically never given a shot at starting.

 

The point is that we're not talking about an extradordinarily short hook for JP Losman, especially since Jauron has now indicated that he'll be coming back after the bye. Just because some teams have continued to trot out players like Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, and Rick Mirer - doesn't prove that you have to play a guy for five seasons to figure out what you've got. O.k., maybe JP Losman will turn out to be Rich Gannon and in 2016 he'll be MVP of the National Football League. If Losman doesn't show us a bit more in the next couple weeks, though, that may be a chance that we'll have to take.

 

JDG

[JDG]

Brees is a prefect example of guys who just wake up one day and say "NOW I GET IT!"  JP could be the same way, or he could be a bust.  We dont know.  I do know that I have seen flashes of brilliance in this kid.  And if he ever "gets it" he can be VERY good.

814675[/snapback]

 

Except that Drew Brees actually looked pretty good in his second year in the League, before regressing as a third year player. So at least you knew in that third year when Brees was stinking it up that he had at least shown something already - whereas JP Losman has yet to really show much of anything.

 

JDG

[I 90]

Forget about the draft position and who was what when...

 

They are different animals. Brees was a disciplined Tiller "scheme" product who was no guarantee to succeed because of percieved physical limitations. Losman is almost the opposite case. His athletic ability let him get away with things that his own coach STILL has reservations about.

 

The light "will not come on" for Losman in the same way. It is more likely that Losman will have to set fire to his playbook if he is to see anything. Not that that would be a bad thing.

 

.

[Ozymandius]

Good post, I-90. I don't give up on Losman, but the Brees situation is entirely different. Here's what I said in another thread:

 

JP and Brees are completely different types of QBs and aren't really comparable either. Brees fell to 32 because while he was a smart, accurate QB with all the instincts and came from a winning Big 10 school, people wondered whether he had the physical tools to play in the league. JP was drafted at 22 because while he had all the physical tools in place, he came from a losing mid-major program and people wondered about his accuracy and whether he could put it together mentally (and at the time, people also wondered whether he was a cancer). I don't take any comfort in Brees' eventual success because the reasons why JP was drafted low and why Brees was drafted low were completely different.

[Orton's Arm]

Drew Brees' stats from his third year in the league (second season as a starter):

I keep hearing the Drew Brees comparison with reference to Losman. But Drew Brees is just one guy. Let's look at the big picture:

 

- Some players show something their rookie years, such as Ben Roethlisberger.

- Other players show something their second years, such as Peyton Manning.

- Other players sit on the bench a while, but do well upon being thrown in: Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, etc.

- A few players such as Drew Brees take a long time for the light to finally come on.

- For many players, it never does.

 

I compare this situation to leaving a message on a woman's answering machine. Maybe she returns the call the next day. Or maybe she's busy or out of town, and waits a few days to call you back. But if she goes a week or ten days without calling you back, it's fairly safe to assume she's not going to call you back at all. And the longer we go without seeing anything from Losman, the less likely it is that he'll ever become the player TD had hoped for.

[I 90]

I compare this situation to leaving a message on a woman's answering machine. Maybe she returns the call the next day. Or maybe she's busy or out of town, and waits a few days to call you back. But if she goes a week or ten days without calling you back, it's fairly safe to assume she's not going to call you back at all.

815167[/snapback]

 

Or maybe she's that methamphetamina that calls you at crazy hours many months later. Rich Gannon, I'm talkin' about you...

[Dibs]

Add Leinart and Gostkowski to that group as well - a group that also includes guys like Palmer, Brees, Leftwich, and Grossman as QB's who have all shown more in their first 15 starts than Losman has.

814881[/snapback]

I assume you meant Gradkowski....

I think you clearly show how ones involentary bias skews logical analysis.

You obviously have never looked through the stats of all those players you mentioned but if you did you'd find that JP is right there with them(give or take).

 

Let's quickly look at this bit though....QBs who have all shown more in their first 15 starts......

I guess you base Leinart on....

His KC loss....35-22-253 2-1 91.7QBR

& his CHI loss.....42-24-232-2-0 88.6QBR

 

& I guess you base Gradkowski on...

his NO loss....31-20-225-2-0 107.6QBR

& his CIN win.....44-25-184-2-1 72.5QBR

 

what about JPLs....

KC win 16-9-137-2-0 124.2QBR

or MIA loss 26-13-224-3-0 102.1QBR

or MIA win 18-11-83-1-0 90.7QBR

or MIN win 32-23-224-1-0 101.6QBR

 

Where have they shown more???

Brees had 76.9QBR in his first 16 starts

Leftwich had 73.0QBR in his first 13starts(15 games)

Grossman has only played 14 games(13 starts) & has a 75.3QBR....his first 3 years were....74.8, 67.9,& 59.7

Even Palmer in his first year as a starter(13games&starts)(2nd year player) was 77.3QBR

 

I can easily understand how people can look at our players & see them for being better than they are due to the desperate wanting for it to be true......I will not ever be able to understand how fans of this team see players for worse than what they actually are due to wanting it to be true. How does that work?

[Pyrite Gal]

I keep hearing the Drew Brees comparison with reference to Losman. But Drew Brees is just one guy. Let's look at the big picture:

 

- Some players show something their rookie years, such as Ben Roethlisberger.

- Other players show something their second years, such as Peyton Manning.

- Other players sit on the bench a while, but do well upon being thrown in: Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, etc.

- A few players such as Drew Brees take a long time for the light to finally come on.

- For many players, it never does.

 

I compare this situation to leaving a message on a woman's answering machine. Maybe she returns the call the next day. Or maybe she's busy or out of town, and waits a few days to call you back. But if she goes a week or ten days without calling you back, it's fairly safe to assume she's not going to call you back at all. And the longer we go without seeing anything from Losman, the less likely it is that he'll ever become the player TD had hoped for.

815167[/snapback]

 

Add a Brad Johnson to your analogy.

 

He actually gets called for a date his first time and he ends up being a total schmuck and is dumped.

 

Still he looks like a stud so he gets a call for a secomd date and lo and behold he is still a schmuck amd gets dumped.

 

Yet, there are tons of chicks in this town and on his third date he takes the babe to places she has never been before.

 

In the ned, JP is JP amd while comparisons have some utility just after the draft, reality sets in and the comparisons are pretty much meaningless.

 

What is meaningful is what works for him.

 

Contractually and practically with the miscues and good things he has shown he is a work in progress and gets more work and more time before we write him off.

[JDG]

- Some players show something their rookie years, such as Ben Roethlisberger.

- Other players show something their second years, such as Peyton Manning.

- Other players sit on the bench a while, but do well upon being thrown in: Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, etc.

- A few players such as Drew Brees take a long time for the light to finally come on.

- For many players, it never does.

815167[/snapback]

 

Actually, I think that Peyton Manning showed plenty his rookie year to people who were able to watch him play (admittedly not everyone, since the Colts were 3-13.)

 

JDG

[JDG]

I think you clearly show how ones involentary bias skews logical analysis.

You obviously have never looked through the stats of all those players you mentioned but if you did you'd find that JP is right there with them(give or take).

 

Let's quickly look at this bit though....QBs who have all shown more in their first 15 starts......

I guess you base Leinart on....

His KC loss....35-22-253 2-1 91.7QBR

& his CHI loss.....42-24-232-2-0 88.6QBR

 

& I guess you base Gradkowski on...

his NO loss....31-20-225-2-0 107.6QBR

& his CIN win.....44-25-184-2-1 72.5QBR

 

what about JPLs....

KC win 16-9-137-2-0 124.2QBR

or MIA loss 26-13-224-3-0 102.1QBR

or MIA win 18-11-83-1-0 90.7QBR

or MIN win 32-23-224-1-0 101.6QBR

 

Where have they shown more???

 

A classic example of how simple stats don't tell everything. Leinart was tremendous in his loss to Chicago, which is pretty much the best defense in football. I don't see how you can compare it to Losman's 83 yard, "just don't lose the game for us", day against Miami.

 

I saw a bunch of Gradkowski's game against the Saints, and he just seemed to show much more poise than I see from Losman.

 

And finally, what neither Leinart or Gradkowski have is a stretch of futility to approach Losman's debacle last year. We'll see if that comes in later weeks.

 

Brees had 76.9QBR in his first 16 starts

Leftwich had 73.0QBR in his first 13starts(15 games)

Grossman has only played 14 games(13 starts) & has a 75.3QBR....his first 3 years were....74.8, 67.9,& 59.7

Even Palmer in his first year as a starter(13games&starts)(2nd year player) was 77.3QBR

815171[/snapback]

 

Classic example of how simple stats - particularly long-term aggregate stats - and most especially the NFL's Byzantine QB rating formula - can cloud the picture. Anyone who compares how Palmer looked in his first 13 games vs. how Losman looked in his first 15 games as being "about the same" simply isn't watching the same game that I am....

 

JDG

[ricojes]

Except that Drew Brees actually looked pretty good in his second year in the League, before regressing as a third year player.  So at least you knew in that third year when Brees was stinking it up that he had at least shown something already - whereas JP Losman has yet to really show much of anything.

 

JDG

814883[/snapback]

But at least he played all 16 games in his second year...

 

He had 27 starts under his belt before his breakout year!!!

[ganesh]

I just don't understand why JP gets such a short leash, after just 15 starts in his NFL career.  The only explanation I can come up with is that it is due to the immediate success of some of his peers (Roethlisberger, Eli, now Rivers, etc).  But I still think these guys are the exception rather than the rule. 

 

814611[/snapback]

 

My feelings or 2cents on this....

 

1. People in WNY are just too impatient with their QBs. Even the media guys are pointing their fingers at JP as if he is the one and only reason why this team is

2-5.

2. JP being from SoCal just does not fit in with the blue collar mentality even though he probably had a blue-collar type upbringing, considering his family status. Kelly was instantly acceptable for two reasons, one he came from a nearby are in W. Pa. and secondly he had tremendous success in the USFL.

3. I don't think the success of Ben/Eli/Rivers ahs anything to do with it. Have you seen any media guys comparing JP to any one of them. They forget that all those guys have a legit team behind them unlike in Buffalo.

4. Since JP was drafted by TD, people just don't want to accept anything that is left over from the TD era.

5. Finally, JP has had his own problems. If he had avoided his mental errors and played good and if we were still 2-5 may be or just may be they will leave him alone, though i doubt it.

 

JP has to learn to move the chains in the 1st half and put up points....He has to show poise in the red zone...We have seen too many oppurtunties wasted in the red zone by this TEAM.....and JP has contributed to that.

[Dibs]

.....I saw a bunch of Gradkowski's game against the Saints, and he just seemed to show much more poise than I see from Losman.....

815252[/snapback]

But that's the thing isn't it? How can you deny that JPL has shown some great ability in some of his playing action. For you to look at an opposition QB & already put him up as "showing something" as if he already outstrips JP after 1 outing you are being overtly biased against our QB. You picked out the MIA managed game as if it was the norm. I listed 4 games where JP played with class.....also, what would you call Roethilburgers rookie season stats for the most of it? I'd call it quite similar to how JP played in the MIA win(& without a top OL)

 

I will disagree strongly with anyone who proclaims within a QBs 1st 20 games or so whether said QB is going to be great....or going to suck. For every Brees(who sucked in his 1st 20 games) there is a Mirer(who shone in his first 20 games).

 

We can compare stats all we like & say "he's crap" "he's shown good stuff" till the cows come home but in the end he will be how he will be. It would be a lot nicer if he could play behind a decent OL though.