My case for starting Losman...whether it

[John from Riverside]

I was pondering this last night going over this Patriot film.....

 

What are the reasons why you start a rookie first round QB?

 

- Because there is noone better?

- Because you are losing?

- Because you need to see what you have?

- To get them ready for the following year?

 

hmmmmmmm

 

What would be the worst thing that would happen to this team....

 

- We lose our games?

- With a rookie QB we would have to run the ball more, simplify the offense, and max protect when we pass (Oh wait....we are doing that NOW)

 

Folks.....the more I go over this the more I think that we need to insert Losman into this lineup as soon as he is completely healthy and has some practice reps with the first team offense.........the more I think about this situation......we are doing everything RIGHT now.....that we would do for a rookie QB coming in.....

 

Is he going to make his share of mistakes....no doubt......are we still going to lose some games.....absolutely....but I also sit there and ask myself.......would a QB that could run for a first down help us slow teams blitzing us? Yeah....it would

 

The future is now....or at least before the end of this year.....

[stuckincincy]

How long before an opponent breaks his leg again? He was the sack king of Conference USA...

[ExiledInIllinois]

I don't understand why you don't start a 1st round rookie QB?

 

Can anybody give me a list of great QB's that were eased in?

 

What about the greats that started as a rookie?

 

I am all for the youngins' being thrown into the "fire."

 

 

Can somebody sway me?

[Guest Guest]

JPL = RJ...hmm..actually RJ would look good right now..LOL

[John from Riverside]

How long before an opponent breaks his leg again? He was the sack king of Conference USA...

57769[/snapback]

 

That wont have changed if it was next year..........he would just have had more practice......

 

And here is just a wild brained thought.....he might be able to facilitate this team to more then 10 points a game with all these weapons.....

 

If we can score 17 points a game we will win most of our games.......

[soljc]

JP will start when he's healthy....doesn't look like playoffs are in our future, so I'm sure he'll see action--McGahee too--in the near future.

[JimBob2232]

Can anybody give me a list of great QB's that were eased in?

 

Well...modern day QBs...

Chad Pennington under Testaverde

McNair only started 2 games his rookie season, and 4 in his 2nd year

Cullpepper sat his first year in the league

Favre., though a 2nd round pick, sat out his rookie year

 

...And we all know bradys story. (though he wasnt a high draft pick)

 

My gut feeling is that there are just as many QBs who start their rookie year and go on to greatness as they are that fail and leave the league after starting thier rookie years.

 

The one thing that we HAVE to remember here, is that losman is a project. The sentiment on draft day was that he comes in here, and needs alot of work. He was projected to be our starter 2-3 years down the road. Now people want to bring him in after 6 weeks of his rookie season when he has been out with a broken leg since training camp. Unreal expectations folks.

[eventualchamps]

Two words why we should start Losman asap: Drew Bledsoe

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I don't understand why you don't start a 1st round rookie QB?

 

Can anybody give me a list of great QB's that were eased in?

 

What about the greats that started as a rookie?

 

I am all for the youngins' being thrown into the "fire."

Can somebody sway me?

57803[/snapback]

 

 

Sure, the list should actually be a fairly recent one as it is a very different NFL today from the one Jim kelly was drafted into back in 1983 as the far more complex and over-systematized NFL and the growing size and speed of LBs makes this a very different NFL than the past and recent examples are far better than old examples.

 

1. Eased in QBs who exprienced success:

 

A. Michael Vick sat his first year for the most part and learned the game and led his team to the playoffs.

B. Chad Pennington sat and learned his first year and led his team to the playoffs his second year.

 

Losman has far more in common with talent level with Pennington than with Vick but both of these players provide good examples of the route of seeing JP as little more than our disaster QB this year and playing next year.

 

2. Highly drafted QBs who sat their 1st year

 

A. Carson Palmer sat all last year before being anointed the starter this year.

B. Chris Simms was drafted fairly high (but not in the 1st round if memory serves me correctly) and seems to be a good bet to start for his team but sat early.

 

The jury is still out on these examples along with the above two but they show that the notion that a QB drafted early must start immediately is simply not true.

 

3. Highly drafted QBs who were thrown into the fire immediately.

 

A. Kyle Boller started for Balt last year and put up a reasonable though not outstanding record as a rookie before a season ending injury.

B.If you want to go back a little wayPeyton Manning 3-13 his first year.

C. If you want to go back too long away to be relevant to JP Aikman started as a rookie and finished 0-11 as a starter.

D. Mos relevant to our casr because he was a Bill is probably the Todd Collins example.

 

the list is #3 goes somewhat far afield but it is instructive for this issue:

 

A. Giving JP a start this year would be hailed as a great move by Bill Parcells because it would likely make the Bills 2005 first round pick now owned by Dallas a top 5 draft pick. If JP survived this trial by fire, like Manning and Aikman he might use the experience to become one of the best ever, but anyone who wants JP to start now to help this team win now is saddly mistaken in understanding past history. Far better players than JP (do you think he is as good as Manning or Aikman) delivered nothing to the bottomline for their teams as rookies and the same is probably true of JP.

B. Actually, given the recent history of even bigger even faste defenders in the NFL than when Aikman or Manning were drafted and given that JP's injury history is now one of a olayer who can be damaged even in practice, it seems unlikely to me that he would even survive to see the end of the season if pressed into service now before he learns better how to protect himself. Even players like Vick, Pennington and Boller who probably brought a combination of athleticism and expereince to the table that equals JP proved unable to survive when relied upon as NFL starting QBs. A real key to using JP as a starter it seems to be is his #2 because it is not unlikely that he will see some significant playing time.

C. The lead example for the Bills to take note of from this list however is Todd Collins who to me shows what can happen when you manage your QBs poorly and bring them along too fast. The Bills braintrust fell in love with the good parts of his game (accuracy and came from a good school) and unfortunately probably overdrafted to get him (because they waited a year too long to breed a replacement for Kelly) and rushed him into a situation he was not up to and thus excentuated his tendency to have happy feet.

 

Overall, there are a number of clear recent examples of highly drafted QBs who sat and learned their first years and produced some good payoff later. Further, there are examples of teams intelligently expecting highly drafted QBs to bring a payoff later without real concern of them being declared a bust if they did not contribute their first year. Finally, the key for QB development is clearly patience. Look, teams expected a lot early from players like Farve, Steve Young and even Elway (who forced a trade immediately but it took years and years for him to deliver an SB win) and rushing these players is not the thing to do.

 

Even Kyle Boller who pulled off a rarity and was productive as a rookie QB starter remarked during the draft this year that the surprising thing to him after his season-ending injury was that there are things a QB can learn sitting that he can never learn playing.

 

JP as a real player strikes me much more as a player who needs to learn offenses, needs to learn mechanics like always throwing the same way to pro receivers and off the correct foot more than he can benefit from learning to play at NFL speed.

 

Being disaster QB and being in the booth dstrikes me as the best way to develop him for the Bills for the longer term even though it may satisfy some fans more right now to see Bledsoe sit.

 

I don't think much of Shane matthews as a player and if it weren't for injury he should be at home on the couch, but if YOU want to sit Bledsoe I'd rather the Bills go with matthews rather than Losman because I think he will develop better soaking up Sam Wyche's knowledge in the booth than he will trying to prepare himself to play or carry the clipboard so he doesn't pull a Billy Joe Hobert.

[tennesseeboy]

JP will start when he's healthy....doesn't look like playoffs are in our future, so I'm sure he'll see action--McGahee too--in the near future.

57972[/snapback]

 

Agreed. Unless DB does a very quick about face the rest of this season should be to showcase tradebait, improve compensation for free agents, and workout future starters. Losman should start playing as soon as he is able unless we start winning games in a hurry.

[BuffOrange]

I don't understand why you don't start a 1st round rookie QB?

 

Can anybody give me a list of great QB's that were eased in?

 

What about the greats that started as a rookie?

 

I am all for the youngins' being thrown into the "fire."

Can somebody sway me?

57803[/snapback]

 

It doesn't matter. Good QB's will be good whether they play their first year or not, bad QB's will be bad either way.

 

But if your team isn't going anywhere, the quicker the better. What's the worse that can happen? A good defensive effort goes to waste because we only score 10 offensive points and lose?

[JimBob2232]

Two words why we should start Losman asap: Drew Bledsoe

 

I do not get this argument AT ALL.

 

1) Losman wont even be healthy until November 1 at the earliest. If bledsoe is as bad as people think, we will be 0-7 at that point, 2-5 in a best case scenario, and playoffs are out of the question, so why the rush to get the rookie in? IF bledsoe turns it around, we could be looking at 3-4 or 4-3, at which point, bledsoe is playing fine and no need to bring in the rookie. Contined play by bledsoe would put playoffs in reach

 

2) Losman is EXTEMELY talented, but EXTREMELY raw. He needs more time on the practice field. He was never projected to see the field this year, or even next year, clearly he is not ready now.

 

3) He would have just gotten back from an injury. Nascar says cautions breed cautions, well in football injuries breed injuries. Let him take it easy the rest of the year, since under my scenario outlined in 1, we will either be in it or out of it when losman comes back.

 

4) Because he just got back from injury, he will have spent a total of a game and a half on the field, and just a fraction of that with the first team offense. The chemistry is not there yet.

[stevestojan]

Sure, the list should actually be a fairly recent one as it is a very different NFL today from the one Jim kelly was drafted into back in 1983 as the far more complex and over-systematized NFL and the growing size and speed of LBs makes this a very different NFL than the past and recent examples are far better than old examples.

 

1. Eased in QBs who exprienced success:

 

A. Michael Vick sat his first year for the most part and learned the game and led his team to the playoffs.

B. Chad Pennington sat and learned his first year and led his team to the playoffs his second year.

 

Losman has far more in common with talent level with Pennington than with Vick but both of these players provide good examples of the route of seeing JP as little more than our disaster QB this year and playing next year.

 

2. Highly drafted QBs who sat their 1st year

 

A. Carson Palmer sat all last year before being anointed the starter this year.

B. Chris Simms was drafted fairly high (but not in the 1st round if memory serves me correctly) and seems to be a good bet to start for his team but sat early.

 

The jury is still out on these examples along with the above two but they show that the notion that a QB drafted early must start immediately is simply not true.

 

3. Highly drafted QBs who were thrown into the fire immediately.

 

A. Kyle Boller started for Balt last year and put up a reasonable though not outstanding record as a rookie before a season ending injury.

B.If you want to go back a little wayPeyton Manning 3-13 his first year.

C. If you want to go back too long away to be relevant to JP Aikman started as a rookie and finished 0-11 as a starter.

D. Mos relevant to our casr because he was a Bill is probably the Todd Collins example.

 

the list is #3 goes somewhat far afield but it is instructive for this issue:

 

A. Giving JP a start this year would be hailed as a great move by Bill Parcells because it would likely make the Bills 2005 first round pick now owned by Dallas a top 5 draft pick.  If JP survived this trial by fire, like Manning and Aikman he might use the experience to become one of the best ever, but anyone who wants JP to start now to help this team win now is saddly mistaken in understanding past history.  Far better players than JP (do you think he is as good as Manning or Aikman) delivered nothing to the bottomline for their teams as rookies and the same is probably true of JP.

B. Actually, given the recent history of even bigger even faste defenders in the NFL than when Aikman or Manning were drafted and given that JP's injury history is now one of a olayer who can be damaged even in practice, it seems unlikely to me that he would even survive to see the end of the season if pressed into service now before he learns better how to protect himself.  Even players like Vick, Pennington and Boller who probably brought a combination of athleticism and expereince to the table that equals JP proved unable to survive when relied upon as NFL starting QBs.  A real key to using JP as a starter it seems to be is his #2 because it is not unlikely that he will see some significant playing time.

C. The lead example for the Bills to take note of from this list however is Todd Collins who to me shows what can happen when you manage your QBs poorly and bring them along too fast.  The Bills braintrust fell in love with the good parts of his game (accuracy and came from a good school) and unfortunately probably overdrafted to get him (because they waited a year too long to breed a replacement for Kelly) and rushed him into a situation he was not up to and thus excentuated his tendency to have happy feet.

 

Overall, there are a number of clear recent examples of highly drafted QBs who sat and learned their first years and produced some good payoff later.  Further, there are examples of teams intelligently expecting highly drafted QBs to bring a payoff later without real concern of them being declared a bust if they did not contribute their first year.  Finally, the key for QB development is clearly patience.  Look, teams expected a lot early from players like Farve, Steve Young and even Elway (who forced a trade immediately but it took years and years for him to deliver an SB win) and rushing these players is not the thing to do.

 

Even Kyle Boller who pulled off a rarity and was productive as a rookie QB starter remarked during the draft this year that the surprising thing to him after his season-ending injury was that there are things a QB can learn sitting that he can never learn playing.

 

JP as a real player strikes me much more as a player who needs to learn offenses, needs to learn mechanics like always throwing the same way to pro receivers and off the correct foot more than he can benefit from learning to play at NFL speed.

 

Being disaster QB and being in the booth dstrikes me as the best way to develop him for the Bills for the longer term even though it may satisfy some fans more right now to see Bledsoe sit.

 

I don't think much of Shane matthews as a player and if it weren't for injury he should be at home on the couch, but if YOU want to sit Bledsoe I'd rather the Bills go with matthews rather than Losman because I think he will develop better soaking up Sam Wyche's knowledge in the booth than he will trying to prepare himself to  play or carry the clipboard so he doesn't pull a Billy Joe Hobert.

58030[/snapback]

 

Dude, seriously. I love reading your posts sometimes, but you really need to think about shortening em up a bit. I think alot of people skip em (i do sometimes if im working on a project and can only come in for a sec) just because of how long they are - and we're missing some good stuff..

 

Think: cliffnotes.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Dude, seriously. I love reading your posts sometimes, but you really need to think about shortening em up a bit.  I think alot of people skip em (i do sometimes if im working on a project and can only come in for a sec) just because of how long they are - and we're missing some good stuff..

 

Think: cliffnotes.

58044[/snapback]

 

Cliffnotes begin: Oops Sorry. Cliffnotes end

 

 

As i have noted a few times, i tend to post to think these things through for myself and though i love the feedback and ideas from folks reading them, i do often post for my own head.

 

At any rate, I should be a bit more pithy because not everyone has the advantage i have of being my own boss (I fight my boss like a cat sometimes, but i always win) and i do appreciate the insights of others.

 

Mostly, I tend to rant on too long because particularly after a loss, much of the analysis on TSW is so simplistic and so wrong it can take a book to point out the reasons why.

 

For example:

 

Losman should not start because;

 

1. He is injured and can't even play right now and even though thankfully his recovery is ahead of schedule it will take a good 3-4 weeks after he can resume playing before he is remotely even able to practice enough to play, His injury makes starting him a non-issue until at least week 8-10 even with a speedy recovery.

2. He is a rookie and will not help the team with Ws. if you don't believe me look at the records of rookie starters like Manning and Aikman. No one mistakes Losman for Manning and even when a rookie can help a team put up Ws it has more to do with Balts D picking up for Boller and Tampa Bay and Dungy's D picking up for whatever their rookie QBs name was when they were good under a rookie QB.

3. Injury is simply a big issue for any QB in this league and I shudder thinking about rushing Losman out there behind this line. if you really care about the future prospects of the Bills better to put Bledsoe out there for sacrifice this year than rush Losman end to get knicked again since he already has goned own in practice. Like all players he will get some benefit to his game playing at NFL speeds, but athleticism and the ability to lead is the least of his needs for work and learning NFL and the Bills O are greater needs to develop him as a QB. His development will get so much more from being with Sam Wyche in the pressbox rather than replicating his Tulane experience behind a Bills O-line it isn;t even funny.

 

Sorry for going on so long, but the idea of rushing him in as a starter is simply against the Bills interest. if anyone is interested I suggest waiting til you get home and dodging your wife (or significan other) rather than your boss.

[BillnutinHouston]

Cliffnotes begin: Oops Sorry. Cliffnotes end

As i have noted a few times, i tend to post to think these things through for myself and though i love the feedback and ideas from folks reading them, i do often post for my own head.

 

At any rate, I should be a bit more pithy because not everyone has the advantage i have of being my own boss (I fight my boss like a cat sometimes, but i always win) and i do appreciate the insights of others.

 

Mostly, I tend to rant on too long because particularly after a loss, much of the analysis on TSW is so simplistic and so wrong it can take a book to point out the reasons why.

 

For example:

 

Losman should not start because;

 

1. He is injured and can't even play right now and even though thankfully his recovery is ahead of schedule it will take a good 3-4 weeks after he can resume playing before he is remotely even able to practice enough to play,  His injury makes starting him a non-issue until at least week 8-10 even with a speedy recovery.

2. He is a rookie and will not help the team with Ws.  if you don't believe  me look at the records of rookie starters like Manning and Aikman.  No one mistakes Losman for Manning and even when a rookie can help a team put up Ws it has more to do with Balts D picking up for Boller and Tampa Bay and Dungy's D picking up for whatever their rookie QBs name was when they were good under a rookie QB.

3. Injury is simply a big issue for any QB in this league and I shudder thinking about rushing Losman out there behind this line.  if you really care about the future prospects of the Bills better to put Bledsoe out there for sacrifice this year than rush Losman end to get knicked again since he already has goned own in practice.  Like all players he will get some benefit to his game playing at NFL speeds, but athleticism and the ability to lead is the least of his needs for work and learning NFL and the Bills O are greater needs to develop him as a QB.  His development will get so much more from being with Sam Wyche in the pressbox rather than replicating his Tulane experience behind a Bills O-line it isn;t even funny.

 

Sorry for going on so long, but the idea of rushing him in as a starter is simply against the Bills interest.  if anyone is interested I suggest waiting til you get home and dodging your wife (or significan other) rather than your boss.

58092[/snapback]

 

Still too long dude. Feels like a homework assignment.

[NorCal Aaron]

David Carr is progressing under less than favorable circumstances. Losman need reps and this year is lost.

 

When he's got a clean bill of health, have the staff put together a simplified gameplan that won't get him completely killed, and if the Bills lose - so what? He learns and we benefit from the narrow curve next year.

 

Keeping Bledsoe in there also retards the development of the young receivers since his last 10- 12 games have hardly kept them busy. Let JP start gelling with Evans, Aiken, etc sooner than later.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

David Carr is progressing under less than favorable circumstances. Losman need reps and this year is lost.

 

When he's got a clean bill of health, have the staff put together a simplified gameplan that won't get him completely killed, and if the Bills lose - so what? He learns and we benefit from the narrow curve next year.

 

Keeping Bledsoe in there also retards the development of the young receivers since his last 10- 12 games have hardly kept them busy. Let JP start gelling with Evans, Aiken, etc sooner than later.

58167[/snapback]

 

Look, first Losman should not be rushed back to his detriment simply because Drew sux. Some fans may want this, but there is an extremely strong case to be made that even when he is healthy, Losman will develop better as our disaster QB than being forced in as the starter.

 

1, He should not play at all until healthy, Even with his recovery thankfully on a fast track it does not sound like he will be ready for even the practice field physically for a couple of weeks, When he resumes practice it will still be several weeks for him to get the practice reps necessary to be a credible starter (can help the team with his play and can protect himself) even if he is on a fasttrack and there are questions whether the quality of play will allow that or not since he is a rookie.

 

2. When you look at his game, leadership seems to be a strength and athletic ability seems to be a strength. His weaknesses seem to be development of poor mechanics and bad habits playing behind the jailbreak Tulane line a need to learn NFL offenses like any rookie, In other words, there is no replacement for the benefits of playing, but his primary needs for improvement are most likely found listening to Sam Wyche in the pressbox and practicing his mechanics under Sams eye than playing the game.

 

Don't get me wrong, ultimately playing gives you something the classroom can't, but as Kyle Boller said in the draft from his experience being an immediate starter at QB for the Ravens who was forced by injury to sit and watch, there are things you can learn in the class room and in the pressbox that you cannot focus on if your are preparing to play and lead or carry the clipboard. By far Losman strikes me as someone who will develop better following the Michael Vick/Chad Pennington/Tim Crouch model of sitting and learning than he will develop from following the initial (pre-injury) Kyle Goller model or goshforbid the rush him in before he is ready Todd Collins model.

 

it may satisfy some fans to see JP play, but after like the rookie Peyton Manning he goes 3-13 pr the rokie Troy Aikman he goes 0-11 as a starter I worry that not only will he fail to develop like these two or are among the best QBs ever, but more likely fans will quickly declare him a failed draft pick as they vent their dislike for TD and like fans who ran Steve Young, Brett Farve and Trent Dilfer out of town when they were early losers thrown to the wolves to fast, so too will uneducated fans give up on Losman;s rookie failures he will almost certainly have.

 

Bledsoe may suck, but this is no reason to rush Losman along. if Bledsoe must sit then I hope we see Shane Matthews. He sux also but he won't be distracted from development like Losman and who cares if he is killed because this season ain't over yet but has likely already been lost for a range of reasons. Playing Losman likely won't change that, will not bring a focus to areas of work Losman needs, and likely will not help the Bills in the short or long term.

[NorCal Aaron]

What about a clean bill of health don't you understand?

[renfruzetz]

Manning, Rivers and Roth have not won a starting job yet.

 

None of these guys had a broken leg, yet Losman should be starting when he returns? NFW

 

JP will get his reps in practice and maybe some mop up duty in the last quarter of the season.

[AJ1]

How long before an opponent breaks his leg again? He was the sack king of Conference USA...

57769[/snapback]

 

With exactly who on the bench training him?? A mister Zippo, I'm sure.