daquixers_is_back Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 I know you try to show how impossible Lions going 11-5 is, but your monkey case is really not a good example. If Lions' chance to win one game is p (0<p<1), the chance of Lions going 11-5 is p^11*(1-p)^5. Let's say p is only 30%, the possibility of Lions going 11-5 is about 0.0000298%. If p is 20%, the possibility of 11-5 is about 0.000000671%. Of course, the chance of winning each game is different. However, the possibility of Lions winning 11 games is in the range of above numbers and is higher than winning one lottery. It is much much much higher than a monkey randomly type the whole Shakespeare work. There're total 884647 words in Shakespeare and average 4.5 characters per word. Therefore, the possibility of randomly typing the whole Shakespeare works is (10^-7961823), it's 7961823 zeros after decimal point. How low is it? It's about winning 995227 consecutive lotteries. 804293[/snapback] Oh wow. I have no idea what that is above me, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 I don't get it. Why is a team who has no wins more dangerous to play than a team who has 1 or 2 wins? Do you really believe that a team who has already won one game is not as worried about winning another? Do you believe that 5-2 teams are already coasting and thinking ahead to the playoffs? If this 0-5 team is so dangerous, were they not dangerous at 0-4 and 0-3? Why did they not win then? The bottom line is, every game in the NFL is a tough one. No team is going to roll over and not put up their best effort. I understand the sentiment of not wanting to overlook the winless Lions, but being more afraid of them at 0-5 than at 1-4 is ridiculous. 803900[/snapback] do you understand it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 do you understand it now? 805519[/snapback] Actually no ... I dont think them being winless made them beat us by 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Actually no ... I dont think them being winless made them beat us by 3 805571[/snapback] winless teams eventually win and 3 of those winless teams won today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 winless teams eventually win and 3 of those winless teams won today 805575[/snapback] And 2 of those 3 teams (Detroit and Tennessee) got their wins against mediocre oppoents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 And 2 of those 3 teams (Detroit and Tennessee) got their wins against mediocre oppoents 805580[/snapback] a win is a win and too may people take games against winless teams for granted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 a win is a win and too may people take games against winless teams for granted 805646[/snapback] And that is IMO the real fear......not that the winless team all of a sudden tries harder.....that the team about to play them has trouble viewing them as a serious threat to fire up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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