I don't understand the "afraid to play winless"

[ofiba]

I don't get it. Why is a team who has no wins more dangerous to play than a team who has 1 or 2 wins? Do you really believe that a team who has already won one game is not as worried about winning another? Do you believe that 5-2 teams are already coasting and thinking ahead to the playoffs? If this 0-5 team is so dangerous, were they not dangerous at 0-4 and 0-3? Why did they not win then?

 

The bottom line is, every game in the NFL is a tough one. No team is going to roll over and not put up their best effort. I understand the sentiment of not wanting to overlook the winless Lions, but being more afraid of them at 0-5 than at 1-4 is ridiculous.

[daquixers_is_back]

I think the arguement is because they have nothing to do and is playing for pride???

 

Personally when the Bills were 0-4 or 0-5, I never thought we were more dangerous than when we were 3-2 or 4-1.

[Mikie2times]

I don't get it.  Why is a team who has no wins more dangerous to play than a team who has 1 or 2 wins?  Do you really believe that a team who has already won one game is not as worried about winning another?  Do you believe that 5-2 teams are already coasting and thinking ahead to the playoffs?  If this 0-5 team is so dangerous, were they not dangerous at 0-4 and 0-3?  Why did they not win then?

 

The bottom line is, every game in the NFL is a tough one.  No team is going to roll over and not put up their best effort.  I understand the sentiment of not wanting to overlook the winless Lions, but being more afraid of them at 0-5 than at 1-4 is ridiculous.

803900[/snapback]

When an opposing fan is very cocky, and very arrogant, and gives us no respect, does it piss you off? For most it does. If that’s how it makes fans feel how you do think the players feel? How do you think they feel when the media has written articles about how bad they suck for 7 straight days, and how they have no chance of winning this weekend. This is a very emotional and physical sport. A light boost in aggression or motivation can make a big difference.

 

When a team starts to lose and has yet to win a game pressure mounts in the media and fan base. Players feel desperation. You haven't notice it but that desperation could be seen in the Lions performance the last few weeks. It just hasn't translated into a win because they can't close out games. If you still don't believe it how do you explain the winless Titans going into Indianapolis last week as 18 point underdogs, and nearly winning outright? That extra 5% exists in the human spirit.

[BuffOrange]

When an opposing fan is very cocky, and very arrogant, and gives us no respect, does it piss you off? For most it does. If that’s how it makes fans feel how you do think the players feel? How do you think they feel when the media has written articles about how bad they suck for 7 straight days, and how they have no chance of winning this weekend.  This is a very emotional and physical sport. A light boost in aggression or motivation can make a big difference.

 

When a team starts to lose and has yet to win a game pressure mounts in the media and fan base. Players feel desperation. You haven't notice it but that desperation could be seen in the Lions performance the last few weeks. It just hasn't translated into a win because they can't close out games. If you still don't believe it how do you explain the winless Titans going into Indianapolis last week as 18 point underdogs, and nearly winning outright? That extra 5% exists in the human spirit.

803912[/snapback]

 

I wonder what Fisher said in the locker room....when I saw the Manning DirecTV commercial where he's abusing the Titans I thought: "wow, that's some bulletin board material".

 

I heard on WFAN today that 15 of the last 29 teams who started 0-4 won their 5th game. Of course the Lions being 0-5 doesn't put them in that group, but if you take away the bad loss vs. GB their results have pretty much epitomized that of an average team and not much worse.

[Nanker]

I wonder what Fisher said in the locker room....when I saw the Manning DirecTV commercial where he's abusing the Titans I thought: "wow, that's some bulletin board material". 

 

I heard on WFAN today that 15 of the last 29 teams who started 0-4 won their 5th game.  Of course the Lions being 0-5 doesn't put them in that group, but if you take away the bad loss vs. GB their results have pretty much epitomized that of an average team and not much worse.

803915[/snapback]

 

Well, the odds are they're not going to go 0-16. So they're going to eventually win a game, and the odds of that happening increase every week.

[true_blue_bill]

Well, the odds are they're not going to go 0-16. So they're going to eventually win a game, and the odds of that happening increase every week.

803951[/snapback]

Bingo! Plus losing to team that didn't have any wins before you played them mean you reall suck A$$. It really looks pretty bad. And even if you win, you were fvcking suppose to win!

[/dev/null]

Well, the odds are they're not going to go 0-16. So they're going to eventually win a game, and the odds of that happening increase every week.

803951[/snapback]

 

I don't buy that

They could go into their finale at 0-15 and by your logic would almost be a statistical lock to win

 

The season is 16 individual games. Each matchup is unique. The Lions could go 0-16. They could also go 11-5

 

Another thing to keep in mind, since 2000 the Bills are only 3-5 indoors

[meazza]

I don't get it.  Why is a team who has no wins more dangerous to play than a team who has 1 or 2 wins?  Do you really believe that a team who has already won one game is not as worried about winning another?  Do you believe that 5-2 teams are already coasting and thinking ahead to the playoffs?  If this 0-5 team is so dangerous, were they not dangerous at 0-4 and 0-3?  Why did they not win then?

 

The bottom line is, every game in the NFL is a tough one.  No team is going to roll over and not put up their best effort.  I understand the sentiment of not wanting to overlook the winless Lions, but being more afraid of them at 0-5 than at 1-4 is ridiculous.

803900[/snapback]

 

Because no team goes 0-16. Even the shittiest team in the league will win one game. I'm going to start taking bets on who will lose to the Raiders this season.

[daquixers_is_back]

I don't buy that

They could go into their finale at 0-15 and by your logic would almost be a statistical lock to win

 

The season is 16 individual games.  Each matchup is unique.  The Lions could go 0-16.  They could also go 11-5

 

Another thing to keep in mind, since 2000 the Bills are only 3-5 indoors

804055[/snapback]

 

Thats kinda the way I look at it. I dont think they have an advantage by being winless.

 

 

Because no team goes 0-16.  Even the shittiest team in the league will win one game.  I'm going to start taking bets on who will lose to the Raiders this season.

804058[/snapback]

 

Its gonna be tough for the Raiders to win a game this a year. I do understand the "any given Sunday" thing, but this is the worst team in football and they have already played the easiest team on their schedule and lost by 14 points. Their remaining schedule.

 

Oct 15 @Denver - Loss

Oct 22 Arizona - Loss

Oct 29 Pittsburgh - Loss

Nov 6 @Seattle - Loss

Nov 12 Denver - Loss

Nov 19 @Kansas City - Loss

Nov 26 @San Diego - Loss

Dec 3 Houston - Possibilty? Although David Carr is doing well this season

Dec 10 @Cincinnati - Loss

Dec 17 St. Louis - Loss

Dec 23 Kansas City - Loss

Dec 31 @N.Y. Jets - Loss

 

Again. They could win one of these games because of any given sunday, but the likelyhood doesnt look so nice.

[BuffOrange]

They did blow an 18 pt lead at home vs. Cleveland, and it's hard to get a better opportunity than that to win a game. I think they'll beat either Houston or St. Louis though.

[daquixers_is_back]

They did blow an 18 pt lead at home vs. Cleveland, and it's hard to get a better opportunity than that to win a game.  I think they'll beat either Houston or St. Louis though.

804063[/snapback]

 

Yeah those are definate both possibilites ... the 18 point lead is a little smoke and mirrors if you didnt see the game. I believe a couple of TD's came off of odd Cleveland mistakes. One being a fumble returned for a TD. Once they got those, they couldnt seem to score again all game.

 

I do think Houston can beat them ... David Carr is having one heck of a season and its tough for me to think that St. Louis will lose to Oakland. I will probably bet on that game.

[BuffOrange]

The Rams will no doubt be favored but I wouldn't bet on them as road favorites under any circumstances ever. I laughed a lot at everyone who picked them @SF in their suicide pool last year and @Miami the year before.

[daquixers_is_back]

The Rams will no doubt be favored but I wouldn't bet on them as road favorites under any circumstances ever.  I laughed a lot at everyone who picked them @SF in their suicide pool last year and @Miami the year before.

804068[/snapback]

 

Them losing to San Fran in San Fran is nothing new ... I think San Fran beat St. Louis in San Fran last year also.

[TigerJ]

There are several reasons for that notion. There is the fact that a winless team at this point in the season realistically is not going to make the playoffs. They may therefore be a little looser, moreso than a team afraid of the consequences of losing their next game. There is the law of averages. "At some point they are going to win one." Not many teams ever have a winless season and there is a fear, irrationalthough it might be that if fate decrees this is the game that breaks the streak, there's not much you can do about it. I think the reason that has the most merit is the danger your own players could have a let down and play with less intensity because this is an "easy" game.

[Orton's Arm]

I don't buy that

They could go into their finale at 0-15 and by your logic would almost be a statistical lock to win

 

The season is 16 individual games.  Each matchup is unique.  The Lions could go 0-16.  They could also go 11-5

 

Another thing to keep in mind, since 2000 the Bills are only 3-5 indoors

804055[/snapback]

I'm not sure how relevant that stat is about the Bills only being 3-5 indoors since 2000. The Bills are only 36-52 outdoors since 2000. But this is a very different team than the one which lost all those games back in 2001; or even than the team which lost all those games last year.

 

That said, I agree with the rest of your post, at least up to a point. Yes, it's possible the Lions will go 11-5, just as it's possible a monkey could type out the complete works of Shakespeare simply by hitting keys at random.

[syhuang]

That said, I agree with the rest of your post, at least up to a point.  Yes, it's possible the Lions will go 11-5, just as it's possible a monkey could type out the complete works of Shakespeare simply by hitting keys at random.

804253[/snapback]

I know you try to show how impossible Lions going 11-5 is, but your monkey case is really not a good example.

 

If Lions' chance to win one game is p (0<p<1), the chance of Lions going 11-5 is p^11*(1-p)^5. Let's say p is only 30%, the possibility of Lions going 11-5 is about 0.0000298%. If p is 20%, the possibility of 11-5 is about 0.000000671%.

 

Of course, the chance of winning each game is different. However, the possibility of Lions winning 11 games is in the range of above numbers and is higher than winning one lottery. It is much much much higher than a monkey randomly type the whole Shakespeare work.

 

There're total 884647 words in Shakespeare and average 4.5 characters per word. Therefore, the possibility of randomly typing the whole Shakespeare works is (10^-7961823), it's 7961823 zeros after decimal point.

 

How low is it? It's about winning 995227 consecutive lotteries.

[Dibs]

I know you try to show how impossible Lions going 11-5 is, but your monkey case is really not a good example.

 

If Lions' chance to win one game is p (0<p<1), the chance of Lions going 11-5 is p^11*(1-p)^5. Let's say p is only 30%, the possibility of Lions going 11-5 is about 0.0000298%. If p is 20%, the possibility of 11-5 is about 0.000000671%.

 

Of course, the chance of winning each game is different. However, the possibility of Lions winning 11 games is in the range of above numbers and is higher than winning one lottery. It is much much much higher than a monkey randomly type the whole Shakespeare work.

 

There're total 884647 words in Shakespeare and average 4.5 characters per word. Therefore, the possibility of randomly typing the whole Shakespeare works is (10^-7961823), it's 7961823 zeros after decimal point.

 

How low is it? It's about winning 995227 consecutive lotteries.

804293[/snapback]

So you totally back his point then......possible, but very improbable.

[Dibs]

A few points.....

Mathematically the chance does not actually get any better each week. That can only happen if there is an absolute certainty of winning at least 1 game.

 

I don't agree with the argument that their motivation heightens each week.....it may do, but it may also wane due to the disheartening effects of constant losing....i.e. a "what's the point?" attitude may creep into a lot of the players.

 

In a similar vein.....an anecdote from the Australian Footy......

Several years back the coach of one of the worst teams at the time was being interviewed. Their next game was against one of the power teams of the day who the week before had had an uncharacteristic loss against a much weaker team.

Reporter: "You must be worried.....they're coming off a loss." Implying that the power team would not let it happen two weeks in a row.

Crap team coach: "They must be petrified.....we're coming off 6"

 

Every game is tough.

[silvermike]

The odds of winning each game don't go up for a winless team, but since no team has gone 0-16, relying on history does get you to a lock that they'll win one game. 0-1 teams win go 500-525, 0-2 teams go 300-231, etc. There haven't been too many 0-12 and 0-13 teams, and no 0-15 team has ever lost. It's not good statistics.

[syhuang]

So you totally back his point then......possible, but very improbable.

804331[/snapback]

I never disagree Lions' chance of going 11-5 is possible but close to improbable. I just point out his monkey example is not a good one.

 

The possibilities of winning one lottery and winning 995227 consecutive lotteries are low. But in math, these two are not even comparable, winning one lottery is much possible comparing to winning 995227 consecutive lotteries.