My Bills Grades at the Quarter Pole: Offense

[Rubes]

Bills' Grades at the Quarter Pole: Offense

 

I've always believed a team needs four regular season games under its belt before you can start to assess how it's doing in a given season. So with the Bills in second place in the AFC East at 2-2 a quarter of the way through the season, here is my assessment of the offense, with apologies to Pyrite Gal for posting something even longer than he does. For the record, my grading system is: A = Excellent; B = Above Average; C = Average; D = Poor; F = Really F'ing Lousy.

 

Offensive Line

 

Of all the units, I believe the offensive line is at the greatest disadvantage starting off a season, given how much time it takes for the unit to find its comfort zone. That's particularly true for this group, given that two of its five starters are new this year and a third is still raw. The offensive line has been the Achilles' heel of this team for some time now, and expectations coming into this season were not high. That said, my assessment of their performance thus far is guardedly optimistic. Right now I would say that the offensive line, as a whole, is average -- which is still a lot better than previous years. Against defensive fronts that are below-average (Jets) they performed reasonably well; however, against those that are average to above-average (Patriots, Dolphins, Vikings), they have had both successes and failures. Run blocking has been mostly solid, with the team averaging 3.9 yards per carry and 117 yards per game, the latter good enough for 5th in the AFC and 9th in the NFL (back in the heydey of the early '90s, the Bills, one of the best rushing teams in the league, were averaging about 130-135 yards per game). They still have difficulty run blocking against the stronger defensive fronts, like that of the Vikings, but I am optimistic that this will improve as the year goes on. Pass blocking has been a bit more erratic, however, as we have been used to seeing. Gandy and Peters have done reasonably well in this regard, but the interior of the line still appears susceptible at times to stunts, blitzes, and power rushes. Although sacks allowed are certainly not all attributable to the offensive line, the Bills have allowed 11 sacks, which is in the bottom third of the NFL. That said, it's hard to argue that they appear more capable this year than last year, and their improvement over the first four games is tangible, with Losman clearly having more of a pocket to work with lately. This unit needs a few more games together to become comfortable with each other and with the others (RBs, TEs) that provide blitz and stunt support. The loss of Villarial stings but was not entirely unexpected; Preston will need to be solid for this unit to reach its potential, which I believe is in the above-average range. We have yet to see their performance against a clearly superior defensive front (Bears), which should be a good gauge of their progress. Grade: C+

 

Tight Ends

 

I think most of us weren't sure what to expect from our tight ends this year. In the past, coaches have talked about incorporating them more into the passing game, although this never seemed to materialize. It would seem to be the ideal approach for a learning QB, particularly on a team without an established #1 WR threat at the start of the year. Royals received rave reviews in the offseason for his blocking skills (and was called the "best blocking TE" in football by TMQ), but it sounded as if Jauron and Fairchild were planning on getting him more involved as a receiver. So far, that hasn't happened. After 4 games, Royal has 4 catches and Everett has 1, combining for 7% of Losman's completions. Run blocking has been solid, particularly for Royal. It would be nice to see these guys more involved in the short to medium passing game, particularly against teams that are able to generate pressure on Losman with blitzes. Grade: C-

 

Wide Receivers

 

The thought coming into this year was that the loss of Moulds would be palpable, given the uncertainty of Evans as a #1 WR and the questionable depth behind him. I think the jury is still out on Evans as a #1 WR, although the early returns are encouraging. He leads the team with 19 receptions (almost 5 per game) and averages almost 13 yards per catch, but he has not yet caught a touchdown pass this year. He was effectively taken out of games early in the season, catching only 4 total balls against New England and Miami, but the last two games he has emerged with 8 and 7 catches. He and Losman appear to be adjusting to the double-teams and blitzes, but it will be a few more games until we know if this is a trend or a blip. Reed has been suprisingly consistent and reliable this year, and appears to be much more comfortable in this offense. Price started slow but has also emerged as a reliable and dangerous option for Losman, which is another pleasant surprise. Parrish has shown flashes and can be a serious threat whenever he gets the ball, but it might be some time before we see more offensive plays installed that utilize him. Overall, it is good to see that we have four receivers that have all caught 10 or more passes, which would seem to indicate that Losman is confident in all of them. Aiken and Davis have yet to catch a pass this year. Grade: B-

 

Running Backs

 

We came into the season expecting McGahee to be the workhorse back, and so far Fairchild has kept to this plan. He is averaging almost 25 carries per game and 3.9 yards per carry, and he leads the league with 389 yards (though he is 4th overall with 97.2 yards per game). At this pace, he is on track for a 1500+ yard season, which is exactly what this young offense needs. He has run with power and determination, particularly against the better defensive fronts, and has done a solid job in helping the Bills reach 7th in the NFL in time of possession (31:49). Although he has had a 32-yard run this year, everyone is still hoping for a real breakout run like in the preseason. On the downside, he only has 1 touchdown so far, and the Bills need to find a way to get him into the endzone, particulary when they reach the red zone. Thomas showed some flashes in the New England game but not much since, and Shelton so far has been a disappointment, being noticed more for missed blocks and penalties than anything else. Grade: B+

 

Quarterback

 

Losman was probably the biggest question mark for this team coming into this season, and it would be hard to find someone who is not impressed with his progress to this point. Fairchild, Schonert, and the rest of the staff have done a great job so far tutoring Losman and keeping the offense fairly simple and concise. In the first two road games, they didn't ask him to do too much and he played with quiet efficiency; at home, they loosened the reins a bit and he responded with 550 passing yards, including the first 300-yard passing day by a Bills QB in years. More importantly, in the last couple of games Losman has looked very comfortable in the pocket and making decisions, and his cannon arm has handled the RWS winds easily. It is also remarkable that he has thrown only 1 interception after 4 games, which I think is testament to the solid gameplanning and preparation by Fairchild. At the beginning of the season, anyone who thought his QB rating at the quarter pole would be greater than 90 (90.6, good for 7th in the AFC and 13th in the NFL) would have been a liar. Nevertheless, we all knew going into the season that Losman would have his ups and downs, and this has been true. His sack for a safety against New England and his 3 turnovers against the Jets are significant reasons the Bills have 2 losses so far, although I personally feel that Losman is only partly to blame for those miscues. We also have yet to see if Losman has any 4th quarter comebacks in him (0-for-1 so far), and sooner or later we'll have to find out. He will certainly struggle in some games this year and perform well in others; it is up to Jauron and Fairchild to be patient and keep things simple for him to build his confidence. So far, they've done a commendable job -- and I, for one, am pleasantly surprised. Grade: B

 

Offensive Summary

 

I don't think anyone had any idea what to expect from the Bills offense this year. Expectations were generally low, owing mostly to uncertainty regarding the offensive line, Losman, the wide receivers, and a new offensive coordinator. So far, the returns are encouraging. Fairchild has done what many before him have failed to do; stick to the game plan, pound the ball with McGahee, and keep things simple for Losman. The Bills still need to figure out how to score touchdowns; Buffalo is 19th in scoring with 17.5 points per game, and the big three on offense -- Losman, McGahee, and Evans -- have a grand total of 5 touchdowns between them. That's going to have to improve if the Bills want to win more than they lose. They also have to figure out how to close out games by eating up more clock (and scoring) in the fourth quarter; this was a big reason they lost to New England and almost let wins against Miami and Minnesota get away. I expect these things will improve as the season wears on and the offense becomes more comfortable with themselves and with Fairchild's system. They just need to avoid the injury bug, especially on the offensive line, because the margin for error now is dangerously thin. Overall grade: B-

 

Comments! (if you're still awake)

[TimeWarnerSux]

That is pretty accurate from my standpoint. Are the Bills ever going to get the Tight ends involved? Good post

[ajzepp]

awesome post....

 

I'm really proud of JP....the kid has 1) adopted the city as his own, 2) busted his ass to learn as much as possible, 3) had to overcome the ways that MM and TC screwed with his confidence last year, 4) had to pick up a new offensive scheme this year, and 5) played pretty damn well after the first four weeks of the season.

 

He's growin' up right before our eyes, and I say he's a keeper.

[Cugalabanza]

...Overall grade: B-

795187[/snapback]

Nice post. I agree with your grades.

 

One other thing: where is the play action?

[Bill from NYC]

That was a very well thought post.

 

Your overall rating (by your system) has you rating them overall above average. Imo, the points total tells us that this is not so (especially after that Rocking first play of the season).

 

I would rank the unit overall as average (so far), and this is WAY more than I expected.

[tennesseeboy]

I'd probably give the same grades. I'm hopeful in that they have gotten better and better each week. Let's regrade them at the bye week, when I hope they will have a good solid overall B or Bplus.

[Rubes]

That was a very well thought post.

 

Your overall rating (by your system) has you rating them overall above average. Imo, the points total tells us that this is not so (especially after that Rocking first play of the season).

 

I would rank the unit overall as average (so far), and this is WAY more than I expected.

795216[/snapback]

 

Thanks...

 

The overall grade is B-, which is a little above average (but not quite the true above average of a B). I think that's fairly accurate (although I had a tough time deciding between C+ and B- ), given that Willis and JP have pretty decent stats, the receivers are doing better than expected, and the coaching has been very solid. If they were doing a better job of scoring, they would definitely be a B or B+.

[MDH]

Your overall rating (by your system) has you rating them overall above average. Imo, the points total tells us that this is not so (especially after that Rocking first play of the season).

795216[/snapback]

 

The idea of a football game is not to score a lot of points. The idea is to score more than your opponent. Sometimes that means limiting the amount of points you attempt to score (as odd as that sounds).

 

The Bills coaching staff has been playing it close to the vest and not taking many chances with the ball (see the Bills running it three straight times from the 5 yard line last week and gaining zero yards). In doing this the staff has put the team in a position to win more games (but score fewer points).

 

One of the reasons the Bills D has allowed so few points is that the offense is helping them out. Opposing Os have to travel the length of the field in order to score points. If you continuously make teams do that they'll rarely score more than 20 points. The Bills also try to chew away the clock, which essentially shortens the game and allows for fewer plays (and fewer points). This is a smart move if you think your team is overmatched.

 

Sure the Bills could put up more points on the board but would it help win games? I doubt it. You'd see the O have more turnovers because they'd have to take more risks. Consequently you’d see our D allow more points. The Bills have been more than happy to simply punt the ball away and play a field position game. This generally leads to lower scoring games (by both teams).

 

Given the game plan for the Bills I'd say the O has performed pretty well. We'll see if the coaches loosen the reigns later in the season but right now I think they're calling the games pretty well for a young team. I’d say for what they’re attempting to do they’re playing above average (though just slightly).

[Fixxxer]

Excellent post Rubes.

[D_House]

Nice post.  I agree with your grades.

 

One other thing:  where is the play action?

795213[/snapback]

Great question! The play action pass is a great weapon for a team that runs the ball as much as the Bills do, and even if just attempted, will tend to back defenses off a bit. I missed the last game, but I don't recall a single play action pass in the first 3 games. If I'm mistaken, please someone correct me.

[Kelly the Dog]

Very good analysis and post, Rubes. Here's my one qualification, however...

 

Like the Losman arguments, we Bills fans often get lost somewhere in the netherland between "For the Bills" versus "For the rest of the league". We have had such terrible quarterbacking overall since Jimbo that anything decent seems good, and anything good seems great. For Losman, too, since he was often (at least) looking so horrible last year at times, that when he doesn't look like that, he looks a lot better than he actually performs compared to other good quarterbacks.

 

So I think your overall grades reflect that. The B- seems very accurate "For the Bills", but doesn't seem accurate versus the rest of the league. We still don't score a ton. We don't open huge holes. We haven't made a lot of fourth or third and shorts. We don't give Losman all day to throw. We don't have guys running wide open all over the field like a lot of teams. So overall, I would downsize your grading two half grades, like a B- would be a C+. What we've been accustomed to, it's a B-. What it should be, or what it's like compared to good teams it's a C+.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

The idea of a football game is not to score a lot of points.  The idea is to score more than your opponent.  Sometimes that means limiting the amount of points you attempt to score (as odd as that sounds). 

 

The Bills coaching staff has been playing it close to the vest and not taking many chances with the ball (see the Bills running it three straight times from the 5 yard line last week and gaining zero yards).  In doing this the staff has put the team in a position to win more games (but score fewer points). 

 

One of the reasons the Bills D has allowed so few points is that the offense is helping them out.  Opposing Os have to travel the length of the field in order to score points.  If you continuously make teams do that they'll rarely score more than 20 points.  The Bills also try to chew away the clock, which essentially shortens the game and allows for fewer plays (and fewer points).  This is a smart move if you think your team is overmatched.

 

Sure the Bills could put up more points on the board but would it help win games?  I doubt it.  You'd see the O have more turnovers because they'd have to take more risks.  Consequently you’d see our D allow more points.  The Bills have been more than happy to simply punt the ball away and play a field position game.  This generally leads to lower scoring games (by both teams).

 

Given the game plan for the Bills I'd say the O has performed pretty well.  We'll see if the coaches loosen the reigns later in the season but right now I think they're calling the games pretty well for a young team.  I’d say for what they’re attempting to do they’re playing above average (though just slightly).

795284[/snapback]

 

Excellent post.

 

This low-scoring "O" is by design.

[Rubes]

Very good analysis and post, Rubes. Here's my one qualification, however...

 

Like the Losman arguments, we Bills fans often get lost somewhere in the netherland between "For the Bills" versus "For the rest of the league". We have had such terrible quarterbacking overall since Jimbo that anything decent seems good, and anything good seems great. For Losman, too, since he was often (at least) looking so horrible last year at times, that when he doesn't look like that, he looks a lot better than he actually performs compared to other good quarterbacks.

 

So I think your overall grades reflect that. The B- seems very accurate "For the Bills", but doesn't seem accurate versus the rest of the league. We still don't score a ton. We don't open huge holes. We haven't made a lot of fourth or third and shorts. We don't give Losman all day to throw. We don't have guys running wide open all over the field like a lot of teams. So overall, I would downsize your grading two half grades, like a B- would be a C+. What we've been accustomed to, it's a B-. What it should be, or what it's like compared to good teams it's a C+.

795348[/snapback]

 

 

Good points, yes. Like I said above, I was having a tough time deciding between C+ and B- for the overall grade, so I can't really argue with C+. (BTW, isn't that only one half grade?)

 

But overall, I do think that the grade does take into account that the coaches have been working with either raw or less than stellar talent for the most part, and I think so far they have extracted more from this offense and done a much sounder job than I was expecting. And, I think they've set themselves up for more success down the road.

[ganesh]

That is pretty accurate from my standpoint.  Are the Bills ever going to get the Tight ends involved?  Good post

795192[/snapback]

 

Only when the OL does not have to depend on the TE to protect the QB....Until we can get a LT that can protect the QB by himself, the TEs won't be part of our

passing game.

[I 90]

This low-scoring "O" is by design.

795349[/snapback]

 

More texture on that point -- time of possession has increased in four successive weeks :

27:05... 30:59... 33:13... 35:57. This O may prove to be greater than the sum of it's parts.

 

.

[Yoho]

The one place I potentially disagree is the tight end grade. On all of the running plays and probably 50% of the passing plays, the tight end is just another offensive lineman. Yet, everybody judges their success on how many catches they make. I have been very impressed with Royal's blocking ability. Give me a solid blocking tight end over some lightweight that makes the occasional big play. I would give them a B-

[Bob in STL]

Bills' Grades at the Quarter Pole: Offense

 

I've always believed a team needs four regular season games under its belt before you can start to assess how it's doing in a given season. So with the Bills in second place in the AFC East at 2-2 a quarter of the way through the season, here is my assessment of the offense, with apologies to Pyrite Gal for posting something even longer than he does. For the record, my grading system is: A = Excellent; B = Above Average; C = Average; D = Poor; F = Really F'ing Lousy.

 

Offensive Line

 

Of all the units, I believe the offensive line is at the greatest disadvantage starting off a season, given how much time it takes for the unit to find its comfort zone. That's particularly true for this group, given that two of its five starters are new this year and a third is still raw. The offensive line has been the Achilles' heel of this team for some time now, and expectations coming into this season were not high. That said, my assessment of their performance thus far is guardedly optimistic. Right now I would say that the offensive line, as a whole, is average -- which is still a lot better than previous years. Against defensive fronts that are below-average (Jets) they performed reasonably well; however, against those that are average to above-average (Patriots, Dolphins, Vikings), they have had both successes and failures. Run blocking has been mostly solid, with the team averaging 3.9 yards per carry and 117 yards per game, the latter good enough for 5th in the AFC and 9th in the NFL (back in the heydey of the early '90s, the Bills, one of the best rushing teams in the league, were averaging about 130-135 yards per game). They still have difficulty run blocking against the stronger defensive fronts, like that of the Vikings, but I am optimistic that this will improve as the year goes on. Pass blocking has been a bit more erratic, however, as we have been used to seeing. Gandy and Peters have done reasonably well in this regard, but the interior of the line still appears susceptible at times to stunts, blitzes, and power rushes. Although sacks allowed are certainly not all attributable to the offensive line, the Bills have allowed 11 sacks, which is in the bottom third of the NFL. That said, it's hard to argue that they appear more capable this year than last year, and their improvement over the first four games is tangible, with Losman clearly having more of a pocket to work with lately. This unit needs a few more games together to become comfortable with each other and with the others (RBs, TEs) that provide blitz and stunt support. The loss of Villarial stings but was not entirely unexpected; Preston will need to be solid for this unit to reach its potential, which I believe is in the above-average range. We have yet to see their performance against a clearly superior defensive front (Bears), which should be a good gauge of their progress. Grade: C+

 

Tight Ends

 

I think most of us weren't sure what to expect from our tight ends this year. In the past, coaches have talked about incorporating them more into the passing game, although this never seemed to materialize. It would seem to be the ideal approach for a learning QB, particularly on a team without an established #1 WR threat at the start of the year. Royals received rave reviews in the offseason for his blocking skills (and was called the "best blocking TE" in football by TMQ), but it sounded as if Jauron and Fairchild were planning on getting him more involved as a receiver. So far, that hasn't happened. After 4 games, Royal has 4 catches and Everett has 1, combining for 7% of Losman's completions. Run blocking has been solid, particularly for Royal. It would be nice to see these guys more involved in the short to medium passing game, particularly against teams that are able to generate pressure on Losman with blitzes. Grade: C-

 

Wide Receivers

 

The thought coming into this year was that the loss of Moulds would be palpable, given the uncertainty of Evans as a #1 WR and the questionable depth behind him. I think the jury is still out on Evans as a #1 WR, although the early returns are encouraging. He leads the team with 19 receptions (almost 5 per game) and averages almost 13 yards per catch, but he has not yet caught a touchdown pass this year. He was effectively taken out of games early in the season, catching only 4 total balls against New England and Miami, but the last two games he has emerged with 8 and 7 catches. He and Losman appear to be adjusting to the double-teams and blitzes, but it will be a few more games until we know if this is a trend or a blip. Reed has been suprisingly consistent and reliable this year, and appears to be much more comfortable in this offense. Price started slow but has also emerged as a reliable and dangerous option for Losman, which is another pleasant surprise. Parrish has shown flashes and can be a serious threat whenever he gets the ball, but it might be some time before we see more offensive plays installed that utilize him. Overall, it is good to see that we have four receivers that have all caught 10 or more passes, which would seem to indicate that Losman is confident in all of them. Aiken and Davis have yet to catch a pass this year. Grade: B-

 

Running Backs

 

We came into the season expecting McGahee to be the workhorse back, and so far Fairchild has kept to this plan. He is averaging almost 25 carries per game and 3.9 yards per carry, and he leads the league with 389 yards (though he is 4th overall with 97.2 yards per game). At this pace, he is on track for a 1500+ yard season, which is exactly what this young offense needs. He has run with power and determination, particularly against the better defensive fronts, and has done a solid job in helping the Bills reach 7th in the NFL in time of possession (31:49). Although he has had a 32-yard run this year, everyone is still hoping for a real breakout run like in the preseason. On the downside, he only has 1 touchdown so far, and the Bills need to find a way to get him into the endzone, particulary when they reach the red zone. Thomas showed some flashes in the New England game but not much since, and Shelton so far has been a disappointment, being noticed more for missed blocks and penalties than anything else. Grade: B+

 

Quarterback

 

Losman was probably the biggest question mark for this team coming into this season, and it would be hard to find someone who is not impressed with his progress to this point. Fairchild, Schonert, and the rest of the staff have done a great job so far tutoring Losman and keeping the offense fairly simple and concise. In the first two road games, they didn't ask him to do too much and he played with quiet efficiency; at home, they loosened the reins a bit and he responded with 550 passing yards, including the first 300-yard passing day by a Bills QB in years. More importantly, in the last couple of games Losman has looked very comfortable in the pocket and making decisions, and his cannon arm has handled the RWS winds easily. It is also remarkable that he has thrown only 1 interception after 4 games, which I think is testament to the solid gameplanning and preparation by Fairchild. At the beginning of the season, anyone who thought his QB rating at the quarter pole would be greater than 90 (90.6, good for 7th in the AFC and 13th in the NFL) would have been a liar. Nevertheless, we all knew going into the season that Losman would have his ups and downs, and this has been true. His sack for a safety against New England and his 3 turnovers against the Jets are significant reasons the Bills have 2 losses so far, although I personally feel that Losman is only partly to blame for those miscues. We also have yet to see if Losman has any 4th quarter comebacks in him (0-for-1 so far), and sooner or later we'll have to find out. He will certainly struggle in some games this year and perform well in others; it is up to Jauron and Fairchild to be patient and keep things simple for him to build his confidence. So far, they've done a commendable job -- and I, for one, am pleasantly surprised. Grade: B

 

Offensive Summary

 

I don't think anyone had any idea what to expect from the Bills offense this year. Expectations were generally low, owing mostly to uncertainty regarding the offensive line, Losman, the wide receivers, and a new offensive coordinator. So far, the returns are encouraging. Fairchild has done what many before him have failed to do; stick to the game plan, pound the ball with McGahee, and keep things simple for Losman. The Bills still need to figure out how to score touchdowns; Buffalo is 19th in scoring with 17.5 points per game, and the big three on offense -- Losman, McGahee, and Evans -- have a grand total of 5 touchdowns between them. That's going to have to improve if the Bills want to win more than they lose. They also have to figure out how to close out games by eating up more clock (and scoring) in the fourth quarter; this was a big reason they lost to New England and almost let wins against Miami and Minnesota get away. I expect these things will improve as the season wears on and the offense becomes more comfortable with themselves and with Fairchild's system. They just need to avoid the injury bug, especially on the offensive line, because the margin for error now is dangerously thin. Overall grade: B-

 

Comments! (if you're still awake)

795187[/snapback]

 

Well done post.

 

I give the RBs a B instead of B+. So far it is all McGahee (and he has been good), with just a flash of A-Train in the NE game. We are getting zilch from the FB postion.

 

I would change the overall grade to C+ but we are splitting hairs at this point.

[Rubes]

The one place I potentially disagree is the tight end grade.  On all of the running plays and probably 50% of the passing plays, the tight end is just another offensive lineman.  Yet, everybody judges their success on how many catches they make.  I have been very impressed with Royal's blocking ability.  Give me a solid blocking tight end over some lightweight that makes the occasional big play.  I would give them a B-

795429[/snapback]

 

 

The grade is not based only on their catches. I did mention that Royal's blocking skills are solid. But there are other TEs besides him, and their blocking skills are not exactly top-notch.

 

So, as a sum, I would say Royal's blocking earns the TEs a B+ or so, but his receiving, as well as the blocking and receiving of the other tight ends, brings that grade down considerably.

[Phil Indablanc]

I agree 100%. Pyrite Gal/FFS is gonna be pissed.

[Dibs]

Great post Rubes.

 

What's all the quibbling with the B-/C+ thing?

I was always under the impression that they were basically the same thing.

IMO....assuming your B- or C+ is correct....you picked the right one with B-. The offence has been improving, therefore B- fits. If the offence was regressing, C+ would suit better.....i.e. using the difference between a B- & a C+ as a trend indicator rather than an ability difference.